The Saker
Oh boy, that did not take long. As I wrote in February, the Neocons and the US deep state have completely neutered Trump. Just look at these two headlines from RT (and read the articles):
‘It crossed a lot of lines’: Trump on alleged chemical gas attack in Syria
‘We are compelled to take own action’ if UN fails in Syria – US envoy
Frankly, I feel like saying “QED – I rest my case” and stop writing here. But I won’t – this is too serious.
First, let’s set the context. The Syrians gave up their chemical weapons three years ago (courtesy of Russia). The Syrians have also pretty much defeated the Anglo-Zionist-Wahabi aggression against their country (courtesy of Russia, again). There is a new (kind of) US Administration in power (some say that this was also courtesy of Russia) which appeared to have given up on overthrowing Assad. And right at this moment in time, in what is supposed to be a *pure coincidence*.
- The Syrian forces used chemical weapons
- In a location filled with children
- and a lot of folks with cameras
How stupid do they think we are?
But, of course, it’s not about us. It’s about Trump. And he, alas, is proving to be the overcooked noodle he has been since, well, pretty much day 1 and ever since: flaccid, confused and spineless. And yeah, he appears to be stupid alright, especially his so-called “plan” to defeat Daesh (more about that below).
And nevermind that Russian experts have been warning for a long time that the “good terrorists” had chemical munitions. Nah! Who cares? besides, these are the same evil Russkies who have now been “unmasked” courtesy of a CIA report about “foreign agents”.
We all know that Anglo-Zionists are peace loving, shy and generally kind people. This is why we think of them as the “Axis of Kindness”. The only way to really force their hand and make them use their “best military in the world” is to show them dead children. Like in Kuwait, in Bosnia, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and now Syria. That, and women raped for political reasons (Bosnia, Libya – soon in Syria I suppose). Good thing that the latest atrocity of the “Syrian regime” came in daylight and involved lots of horribly dying children!
Now the Americans will get to destroy the village to save it.
Except they won’t.
There have been plenty of articles speculating about what the “Trump plan” for defeating ISIS/Daesh will be. I won’t even bother listing them here. In plain English his plan is, how should I put it, not very complex:
- Increase the number of US troops already present in Syria
- Offer the Kurds their own autonomous region in exchange for acting like cannon-fodder for Uncle Sam
- Liberate Raqqa as a tangible sign of success
In truth, there is nothing new here. It’s is just a re-heated version of the very same plan Obama had (great minds think alike, and so do the not so great, apparently).
Can you see the problem with this plan?
Let me help here. Problem #1 – no UNSC Resolution will back it. Neither will the Syrian government. But who cares, right? We already know that Nikki Haley thinks about that: once again the US will arrogantly violate international law under the pretext of “being compelled to take action”. Welcome back to Bosnia and Croatia! It’s 1994 again! We now live in the era of the “RTP – responsibility to protect”. International Law, RIP. But that is only a ‘minor’ problem. The real problem is simple:
Besides the Syrians themselves, the Russians, the Iranians and the Turks are categorically against such a plan. And these four countries just happen to represent the overwhelming military force in Syria, and all of them *already* have boots on the ground (and air defense systems). For Turkey especially, such a plan is a casus belli, they have said so many times. I am no big fan of Turkey or Erdogan (although I do like the Turkish people themselves), but I have to admit that should Trump go ahead with this goofy plan he will leave no other choice than to choose between war or civil war. Mostly likely a combo of both.
Then there are the Kurds. Actually, in many ways I feel sorry for them and I admire them. But they have to realize the enormous dangers of accepting the US plan. First, that means that they will be the frontline cannon-fodder against Daesh which happens to be one of the best trained and experienced infantry force in the region. But worse, do the Kurds really want to commit the same historical mistake as the Albanians of Kosovo who have 100% linked their future with Camp Bondsteel and who will be instantly re-invaded by the Serbians as soon as NATO or the US leave (which they will, sooner or later, inevitably).
There is a reason why the US always supports minorities everywhere: because by accepting and relying on that support these minorities always become completely dependent upon the USA. That, in turn, means that the US can then use these minorities in any way they want “or else”. And, since sooner or later the Americans leave, the “or else” inevitably and always happens.
I submit that it would be the height of folly for the Kurds to commit the same mistake. Yes, sure, they want their autonomy and/or their own country. But they have to realize that the only viable way to achieve either objective is by negotiations with their neighbors, not some ignorant US official who will forget about them as soon as he is done promising them the moon. I would remind the Kurds of a time-honored US tradition here: as soon as things get ugly, the Americans “declare victory and leave”.
That also means that the Kurds might have to settle for less than what they want. Politics is the art of the possible. But if the choice is some viable limited autonomy vs full independence followed by an inevitable war against Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria then I think that the former is the best possible outcome. But even if we assume that the Kurds decide to try the “Kosovar option”. There are other problems.
Iran is the number one military power on the ground. And Hezbollah. The Syrians are struggling, I will admit to that. But they are holding and making incremental efforts, some of their best units are actually pretty good. As for the skies over Syria – they are Russian.
So far, the Americans have not re-heated the “no fly zone” concept, but they might as well, since their entire plan is idiotic in the extreme. Besides, I simply cannot imagine US generals agreeing to deploy their forces in Syria without air cover (in case you did not know, the US soldier cannot fight without air cover. He just won’t. It’s “air cover for me or I don’t fight”). However, air cover for the US forces in Syria imply either a tacit agreement with the Russians and the Syrians, something like what the Israelis apparently have, or an immense risk for the USAF and USN aircraft. So we are back to negotiating with the Russians and via the Russians, with the Syrians.
In fact, I bet you that this is what the Americans are doing right now. Quietly negotiating with the Russians. Problem: the Neocons hate Russia and everything Russian. And they loathe Putin. So how does the State Department or the White House negotiate with the Russians while, at the very same time, Congress, the US media and the CIA are all engaging into a hysterical and paranoid hate-campaign against Russia?
So here is Trump’s conundrum: he desperately needs the real enemies of Daesh – Russia, Iran and Syria – to agree to his plan but at the same time, he is too much of a whip to tackle the hate campaign against, well, Russia, Iran and Syria inside the United States.
The Neocons, apparently backed by the CIA and the Pentagon, want to go at it solo: just shoot up all of Syria “OK Corral” style and they seem to be convinced that they can somehow scare the Russians, the Iranians and the Syrian into submission. If so, then they are both stupid and ignorant. Or, there is even a worse possibility: the Neocons *know* that this plan will end up in disaster, but they want Trump to go to war anyway because that will destroy his presidency. That is almost elegant, in a perverted way.
What is sure is that you will never see a Neocon in frontline combat. Neither they nor their kids will die no matter what they do. Or so they think. This is one of the main reasons why these Neocons are the single biggest danger for the United States and the American people: they despise the real American people and they won’t hesitate to sacrifice them, in large numbers if needed (9/11 anybody?).
This is why so many Americans voted for Trump and his promise “to drain the swamp”.
Alas, the swamp drained Trump and all is back to “normal”.
So what happens next? My fervent hope: nothing. Absolutely nothing. As long as the Americans are all talk and as long as they don’t actually do anything, there could be real progress in Syria (Daesh is already losing the war!). I hope that the Kurds will, you know, “kinda, sort of, give it a try” and then stop before things go critical. Should the Kurds really decide to fight for Uncle Sam, I hope that they will keep in mind that the US will dump them as soon as Raqqa is liberated simply because really creating some kind of autonomy for the Kurds against the will of Syria, Iran and, most importantly, Turkey could result in Erdogan really slamming the door on NATO and Turkey leaving the alliance. Should that happen the only option left for Turkey would be some kind of understanding, and maybe even alliance, with Russia and Iran. The various domino effect scenarios are almost infinite and nothing is really impossible.
Right now the Americans are still sort of busy liberating Mosul. I suppose if they stay at it long enough they will eventually succeed, at least for a while. I don’t see them really controlling the city for very long. They might build a US ‘consular fortress’ like in Bagdad or Kabul, but that will not mean that they control the city. If they intend to liberate Raqqa as long as they took to liberate Mosul then this can continue for a long, long while.
There is a scarier possibility: the US begins its operation in Syria, runs into problems, and then begins the endless cycle of escalations and doubling-down. Sooner or later, that means clashing with the Russians and that could turn ugly very fast. A direct clash with Iran with equally unpredictable consequences. If that happens, a lot of Americans will die.
Assuming that there still is somebody rational and sane left in the Trump administration with enough influence, then all this madness can still be stopped. There is also the very real possibility that the current fight inside the US elites will drain so much energy that nobody will really have to time and energy to engage in very risky foreign military operations. And if all else fails, maybe somebody will suggest to Trump that a unilateral military intervention in Syria is pure folly and will cost him his presidency. Maybe this is an argument which he will understand.
2018 will be a very tough year. I don’t think that there is any hope left for a real change in US policies and I am afraid that we are going to have to learn how to live with some kind of Obama 2.0 or some other form of “neo-neoconism”.
It felt really good to hope for a while. Now we have to accept that our hopes never materialized and resume the struggle.
—The Saker
PS: I just learned that, just as I had predicted, Bannon has been removed from the US National Security Council. See for yourself: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-05/bannon-removed-from-national-security-council-role-in-shakeup. Now the coup against Trump is fully completed. And Bloomberg celebrates “Intelligence director, Joint Chiefs chairman elevated”. Yeah, no kidding! It’s over folks, the Neocons have totally crushed Trump. And he did not even given them a halfway decent fight…
Commentary Mag is already celebrating: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/step-toward-rational-national-security-council/ like it’s Purim all over again.
SELECT COMMENTS
Saker, I wrote this to post under another article, but it seemed appropriate to post it here.
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The US is currently moving forces into eastern Syria, increasing the numbers of troops on the ground weekly and going dark about the count. Centcom announced it would no longer publish the numbers. This process began under Obama and continues under Trump without pause and without Syrian consent, to my knowledge. Although the presence of US forces in Syria violates Syrian sovereignty and international law, the UN remains mute, as usual.
This is an invasion, nothing less, which in my view is meant to achieve a “fact on the ground” that cannot be undone without a clash between superpowers. The “fact on the ground” is a “safe zone” within Syria, more accurately an “occupation zone” that serves to irreversibly partition Syria.
US policy remains steadfast in achieving this goal by any means possible. For this reason, I believe the war in Syria is about to get much worse.
Evidence…yesterday the US media instantly blamed Assad for yet another chemical “attack”, this time in Idlib, despite absence of any link to Assad, and despite knowledge of earlier evidence clearly linking opposition forces to prior chemical attacks. Trump blessed the fake news and added more of his own by spreading the blame to Obama for failing to act in the past. Simultaneously, the US airwaves were saturated with lies and denunciations about Assad and fresh red line warnings. Clearly, the chemical attack was timed and choreographed with the media in order to generate maximum public support for whatever the US has planned against Syria in the near future. Whatever it is, they are about to do it under the bear’s nose, and probably also behind its back (in Lebanon).
Ample evidence exists that the real purpose of dividing Syria is the territorial expansion of Israel. Yinon laid it out clearly for all to read. Iraqi reports of IDF commanders leading ISIS units are noteworthy. Other IDF officers are known to have worked (and died) in command centers bombed by Russia in Syria. The destruction and theft of Iraqi and Syrian antiquities also reflects intent to erase Arab culture and history on stolen lands and thereby render moot any future Arab claim to those lands. Palestinians have cataloged similar erasures of their homes and villages in Israel. The entire war since 2003 has been an infrastructure-destroying, culture-erasing, civilian-killing, and population-resettling operation, none of which is required for laying a gas pipeline through a desert.
The defeat of ISIS may cause a shift in US tactics, but it will not end the Syrian war or end US action in Syria. The war will continue until the US achieves partition or is driven forcefully out of the region (with Israel).
Russia’s choices are to unilaterally stand down, make deals with the West to share the spoils, or fight.
How will Russia respond to the present US invasion?
We are at the precipice of world war. Russia is surrounded by regions stoked with tension by the US: Korea, South China Sea, Ukraine, former Warsaw Pact nations, the arctic, and Armenia/Azerbaijan. The Western build-up is almost complete in Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia. More money has been earmarked for military spending (by Trump), and regular military shows of force are conducted in the named regions.
I believe it is the Kremlin’s belief that world war is certain. Therefore, the Russian response in Syria, if attacked, will reflect Russian recognition that a world war has begun. Imagine the heat.
At this point, the Trump election was a victory for Hillary’s policies (i.e., neocon war policies). Whether Trump misrepresented himself or flipped since January 21 2017 are of no concern to me. The fact is Trump’s actions show he embraces neocon ideology today no less than Barak Obama, George Bush, Bill Clinton, and Hillary Clinton.
Knowing the risk and the low probability of success, I and many other Americans supported Trump hoping the US would find a way to reject this inane war and pursue peace. I believe peace, not jobs, was the highest priority of most Trump supporters, and still is. We haven’t failed yet, but the troops are moving and the prognosis is grim. Pray our Frankenstein government grows a frontal lobe before it’s too late.
This is the only explanation that fits Trump’s wildly divergent and vacillating positions, often at odds with those he has picked as advisers/cabinet and even more frequently at 100% odds with the permanent MIC bureaucracy.
Only a fool, a zealot and/or someone grossly un/misinformed could arrive at most of what Trump says and does.
It was in the personal self-interest of Trump Incorporated management to ensure Trump’s businesses “made money”. The 0.001%/Zionist controlled Deep State has exactly the opposite personal self-interest regarding Trump-as-POTUS. The fact the Clinton/Obama/Soros Crime Cabal is not only free, but still engaging in near-treasonous activities and international regime change shows Trump has no ability or even clue on how to “drain the swamp”.
His appointees fighting the Rep/Dem duopoly and Deep State? More like randomly using a flame-thrower to fight a major forest fire, while simultaneously spraying tanker-trucks of gasoline on anything not yet on in flames. And all not in the Deep State/Rothchild flame-protected zones are getting burned, badly.
It will be interesting to see how Trumpy does in his first exchange with a real international titan, Xi. Expect a lot of Trump’s tough-guy rhetoric being walked back by the MSM, as it serves the Deep State agenda to make Trump look “soft on” everything. North Korea may not be China’s favourite child right now, but it is doubtful Xi will castrate or deliver that country up to a US puppet regime.
Never forget Trump’s only role was to be the candidate easiest for the corrupt, psychopathic Killary to defeat. Be assured, all this Washington kabuki is to ensure Trump never gets a second term, unless he proves an even more malleable puppet than any Dem (or Rep?) candidate the Deep State/001% might manufacture.
NYT pull quote: President Trump said that the death of “innocent children, innocent babies, little babies” has made him reassess the situation and Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.
This guy sounds incredibly easy to manipulate.
I guess that was the only question about him going into the election — he had spent his time on the outside of the New York elite, profiting from noticing facts nobody else was noticing in the way all businessmen do, but he didn’t know what it was like to be on the inside.
His outburst, responding to whoever called Putin a “killer,” that “America are no saints” on the world stage, was his last bit of common sense before the neocons were able to wipe it out of him.
Now he knows what it’s like to be a Washington insider, and he’s apparently content with that. Farewell, Trump.
Yes, very agreeable what The Saker writes. Whatever the reason, what Trump said about Syria is completely inexcusable. It can only mean that he is a disgustingly stupid naive bum, as far as almost anything apart from his business is concerned (Americans are extremely indoctrinated, anxious, and ignorant anyway). They definitely didn’t want him as president, but it sure seems that he turned into just another cowardly depraved (Anglo)Zionist house negro. Therefore he is no threat to them at all (nor hope for Americans, let alone the world). Putin seems to be the only decent leader. What he stands for the whole world supports and is willing to fight for.
In the PR war. Russia is way outgunned.
Some time back I visited friends right at the moment one friend was online about the vote to allow the white helmets to be eligible for the Hollywood award.
I had a rant, which persuaded her to stop (at least while I was there- but I think I caused her to doubt).
Then they won the Oscar. So I was “wrong” about the white helmets. They could NOT have won if what I had said (about them being fake – no need to rant here).
So if white helmets say the Syrians’ chemical [weapons] – killed children. Then that’s what happened & will be the view of all the Hollywood/celebrity loving world.
We all agree now. Trump has been couped.
Flynn was key.
Trump is now fed a daily diet of lies.
The psyops war is using Trump’s personality to lead him and his presidency to self-destruction.
Confronting Iran in Syria and possibly, Lebanon, is classically Israel’s agenda and the Wolfowitz master plan to destroy Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. ISIS and AQ could not get this done. Now the US “coalition” will give it a try. But it requires large US troop exposure in Syria.
The size of the US commitment on the ground will be in the 5000-10,000 range.
That’s a lot of targets.
And the “safe zones” for refugees are really bases of operations.
But as soon as the Kurds appear to be given a zone, Turkey will throw the US out of Incirlik. And probably leave NATO, at least the way France did under de Gaulle.
If the US targets Damascus, Assad or the Syrian Army, Iran will react. With a flick of the switch Iraq will turn into hell for the US again.
If Israel shows its hand against Syria in Golan, the Lebanon war is on.
Does Jordan really want on a war on its soil? It will get one.
The US will be defending Israel, US in Iraq and Syria and its vassal, Jordan.
How does the US do that and wage war in Syria, Iraq, Iran and probably Yemen?
You cannot defend when you are attacking all over the region (or trying to).
Massive Russian and Chinese aid will flow toward Iran and Syria. If the US interdicts, Russia will be forced to counter.
How any plan proceeds without the US pulling out the stops in the frontline NATO states seems improbable. Therefore, Ukraine goes on attack. And probably a move is made in Transnistria. The Baltics might erupt.
Eastern Europe will all get a taste of hell.
There is every reason to believe that Putin would declare a national emergency, put all the citizens below ground in bomb shelters and use tactical nukes.
There is no reasoning with ideologues who are intent on domination of the globe.
Syria has been a very serious war. Few lessons have been learned by the Hegemon. Oncoming is a major lesson that will damage Trump far worse than anything Clinton and Obama could have hoped for.
The Chief Goy is about to find himself sacrificed like a Paschal lamb on Passover. Ritual slaughter in the history books of the future.
I doubt anyone though he was a messiah, but an unknown in various areas — and how could one tell without much more information that was readily available, and with all the disinformation around? The system itself is fraudulent, based on deception.
I always thought he was a terrible choice — just not as truly terrible as Clinton, and many people thought the same, unless they were pretty far right, and even some of those. Yet, many were almost forced to defend Trump to counter the vile attacks against him, even while not really supporting him, and with no decent alternatives to support. Even now, with war strongly looming, we are better than with Clinton who would likely already have reduced us all to ash.
Sadly, there are still many Democrats, liberals, etc., who don’t understand how bad all choices were, what’s going down, and remain in denial, as well as ‘Trump supporters’ who into similar games (psychological scripts and roles). But it isn’t good guys vs bad guys, but all bad guys, all gangsters.
I’ll again quote a French commentator I heard (Maybe on Crosstalk?): ‘Trump will destroy the US, and that’s why I support him’. It isn’t a ruse — it’s that we are living in a ‘hell’, so to speak, a zombiefied ‘Wrestlemania’ absurdity where monsters can look ‘good’ in comparison to worse monsters, with fires a frying pans, pots and kettles, comprise the landscape.
What is needed is a third force, with revolution, of some undefined kind — a social, political, and economic reality-based paradigm shift. One in which everyone is constantly moving as more information and new developments are presented. No one knew just what Trump would, or will do, or does even now, because we are still in interactive chaos and turbulence where quasi-random free-for-all forces can overwhelm strategies and plans. All that is left in the
pandemonium perhaps, is ill-defined intent and trying to grasp moral and intellectual integrity, trying to do the right thing for the current positions, in the heat of the battle..
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Several months ago, I said, “this will all end badly”, and wrote the reasons why, which essentially boils down to the fact that Trump is a shallow, amoral, egotistical person, quite the opposite of a religious temperament. I was even more surprised because spiritual Russian people could not see through him.
As for his being told lies, he chose the people to surround himself with, who are all liars. So what could one expect? Did he choose, for example Steve Cohen, who has been urging better relations with Russia? Paul Craig Roberts? Philip Giraldi, Robert Steele, Michael Hudson, Dennis Kucinich, who has advocated a Department of Peace? No, he picks the head of Exxon, the most environmentally polluting criminal corporation in the world. He chose a Mad Dog to be in charge of Defense. Like picking a rabid dog as a house protector. It’s sad and ridiculous at the same time.
Personally, I see people all around me being upset with Trump. I’m not, because, as with Obama’s broken promises, I never expected anything good to come of him, except, maybe a slight reprieve from immediate war with Russia from a Clinton administration.
Looks like even that will not happen. Well the bright side is that Bannon, who was dangerous in his views, is gone, but with all the other problems–multiple assassinations of Russian diplomats, shoot down of Russian planes, St. Petersburg Bombing, False flag gas attacks, threats of war with N Korea, (forgetting that the Chinese, who chased the West out of the North with a 3rd world army, now have a far more powerful army and a far more powerful country, in no mood to be humiliated by the West ever again) there is plenty to be deeply concerned about.
However, wringing one’s hands is also not the answer.
I just saw a good article by the former Green Party Vice Presidential candidate, Ajamu Baraka, who call for a mass peace movement.
Focusing on what is going wrong and feeling bad about it is futile. Envision and focus on
The Good, The Beautiful and the True. What is good and decent.I was just talking with a dear friend yesterday, long time peace activist, who still buys the anti Russia propaganda, as he heard from fake leftists, Amy Goodman and Noam Chomsky, both of whom blame Assad for Syria’s problems.
What is really needed now is a real dedicated peace movement bringing together all factions that have been distracted by identity politics.
The Motto of the Saker Website: Stop the Empire’s War on Russia is a good start
Why contributing to the Greanville Post is urgent and makes sense.
DISCLAIMER
EDITOR’S NOTE: No material by this author or any other author published on this site should be read as a defense of Donald trump and his policies. For us Trump, the GOP and the Democrats are all part of the same malignant threat to Democracy, world peace, truth and honesty in fiscal affairs afflicting the US and the rest of the world, and emanating from the irrepressible dynamics of global capitalism, whose main citadel is currently in the United States.
What will it take to bring America to live according to its own self image?
