Syria – Is War With Israel Imminent (Updated)?

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DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA—


 Dateline: February 10, 2018

Syria – Is War With Israel Imminent (Updated)?

Around 6 am GMT the Syrian air defense shot downed an Israeli fighter jet that was attacking the country. There is now the chance that a larger war will ensue. (The whole story behind this will surely be covered in Elijah Magnier’s upcoming book on Hizbullah.)

[This is a developing story that will be updated below as new information comes in. – The latest update (below) is a video interview with Elijah Magnier on the implications of today’s developments.]

This escalation comes after a series of recent provocations against the Russian forces in Syria, yesterday’s U.S. attack on Syrian forces, last week’s Israeli threats against Lebanon and dozens of Israeli air attacks on alleged Hizbullah or Iranian installations in Syria.

Tonight’s events developed after Israel shot down what it called an “Iranian drone” allegedly in air space over the Israel occupied Syrian Golan Heights. Syria denies that its drone violated Israeli air space. Israel then attacked ground targets in Syria. One attacking Israeli F-16 fighter jet was taken down by Syrian air defense. The pilot ejected and parachuted into Israeli territory. He is wounded but survived. It is the first downing of an Israeli jet by Syrian air defense since 1982!  Further Israeli “retaliation” followed. This is another paragraph in the long history of Israeli aggression against Syria.


 

(Click on map for best resolution.)

Older map with an approximate timeline of events – Source: LeBeckThere are some unconfirmed vague reports of a second damaged F-16 and a destroyed Israeli Apache helicopter.

Today’s development as covered in Eljiah Magnier’s timeline (emphasis added):

Elijah J. Magnier‏ @ejmalrai – 5:06 AM – 10 Feb 2018
Missiles launched over #Damascus; Rockets over the Golan Heights and a drone downed over #Israel: all in the last hour.
Israel said it is “an #Iranian drone”. If that is the case, it is a “forced reconnaissance” to exhaust the Israeli defence system, #Hezbollah’s style.

#Breakingnews:
#Israel F-16 downed by what seems to be #Syria air defence system

 

#BreakingNews: Private source
All Syrian military and intelligence and their allies (#Hezbollah) positions in #Syria and #Lebanon on full alert

Source: #Israel recognition of downing an F-16 means Syria is on alert waiting for any Israeli violation, as is #Hezbolah and #Iran. Would Israel be dragged to war? How #Russia will react in #Syria? The front is very hot now.

#Israel changing version from “an #Iranian drone” to admit the downing of an F-16 was a first attempt to accuse #Tehran but later had to admit the reality showing a confusion in decision makers in the first hour.

#Syria is used to war as its leadership has been engaged in it fully for the last 6-7 years. Therefore #Damascus’s Gov is ready for another front following the liberation of #ISIS last pocket in the north (except the one under #USA control).

Level of escalation in #Damascus response was a warning to #Israel that #TelAviv didn’t take onboard. #Israel may limit itself bombing few Syrian positions from afar (flying over #Lebanon) or be dragged into escalation on a front from #Lebanon to #Syria

#Israel can’t ignore the downing of its F-16, never happen in the last decades over #Syria and #Lebanon. Therefore what is important is the level of response: will the response bring a retaliation? If so, the long awaited war may began.

This is a new Rule of Engagement and a new situation where #Israel is finding itself incapable of dominating the #Syria/n air space. It also shows #Damascus freedom (unlike many analysts believed) to respond regardless what #Russia’s position is.

#Syria/n officials believe more than 1 F-16 were hit by its anti-Air missiles, showing the Syrian air-defence capability and the challenging attitude of #Damascus towards #Israel (not accepting the Israeli version of only 1 F-16 downed).

One conclusion: The Sky over #Syria is no longer an #Israeli/i promenade and the Syrian Army is now ready for another confrontation. This blows up all (ridiculous) assessment by analysts that “the Syrian Army stretched…, skinny…, few thousands only…)

#Israel admitted, indirectly, of the efficiency of the #Syrian Air-defence system by saying:”We study a retaliation”. The question is and remain: How #Russia will behave? Allow #Israel to hit its Syrian ally and remain on the side? Or stop the escalation?

It is in the disadvantage of #Russia to see another war in #Syria on the southern front, with a #USA intervention, #Hezbollah #Iran the #Palestinians… all that may lead to a general war unless the Israeli response is limited.

#Hezbollah, on full alert in #Syria and #Lebanon, expected the reaction. Its leader Said Hasan Nasrallah warned to open a general war from Naqoura to the Golan Heights in the forthcoming war.

This escalation coincide with the approval of #Lebanon to start its oil exploration in Block 9.

Just a thought: If this is a #Russian tit-for-tat, we could say that it is #Russia response to the downing of the Russian jet over #Idlib. Russia accused the #USA of providing anti-air missiles to #AQ allies.

It is likely that #Damascus issues a communiqué to confirm its air defence fired the missiles against the F-16 hitting more than one jet to counter the #Israeli version claiming that #Iran is directly involved in this event.

It seems #Israel warning Sirens blare in Northern #Israel over the Golan, the Galilee and the northern of Israel, closing the airspace over the north of Israel.

7:35 AM – 10 Feb 2018
#BreakingNews: A second #Israel/i air bombing against #Syria. #Damascus open fire again against Israel Jets and Golan Heights positions. Siren over Israel continue. Escalation (for now).


Should Israel escalate to a bigger war it will be covered with hundreds of missiles per hour. Hizbullah has enough reserves to submit Israel to weeks of uninterrupted fire. Normal civil life will come to a stand still. Lebanon and Syria would also be under severe attacks but they are better positioned to endure such a situation.

A downed F-16 is already a bloody nose for Israel. It is not in its interest to further escalate.

Russia as well as the U.S. could become involved and into direct conflict. This must be avoided at all cost. But the current personnel in White House, especially the military triumvirate behind the president, is of dubious quality. Moscow is hopefully aware of this.

[Update 12 am GMT]

The parties are now deescalating. In the last round Israel claimed to have hit several Syrian air-defense positions and “Hizbullah depots” while Syria claimed to have shot down more incoming missiles. Israel signaled that it is not interested in further escalation and Russia called for both sides to calm down. There has been no statement from Washington.

If this outcome persists we can state that there are now new “rules of engagement” and new “red lines”. Further Israeli attacks on Syria will be responded to by effective means. The Russian officers who are co-located with the Syrian air defense will not intervene to Israel’s advantage. That fact is in itself a message from Moscow to Israel to stop its open and its clandestine provocations.

[Update: 1:30 pm GMT]

Elijah J. Magnier‏ @ejmalrai – 1:03 PM – 10 Feb 2018
This is the end of it guys: #Israel decided to stand down and de-escalate. #Russia received an Israeli request to mediate to stop the escalation. Israel has lost the first battle against #Damascus when Syria was ready, after eliminating ISIS in central Syria#BreakingNews:
Commander in #Syria confirmed to me: It was not an S-200 that hit the F-16. “It was a prepared ambushed”. Read more tomorrow via @AlraiMediaGroup

[Update: 7:00 pm GMT]

Elijah just gave an interview (video) to 108morris about the implications of today’s development. (See appendix).

Posted by b on February 10, 2018 at 04:29 AM | Permalink


APPENDIX
Video Bonus

Israel’s F16 Downed And Nothing Iranian Hit – Elijah J Magnier

Published on Feb 10, 2018

In this video Elijah explains the factors on the ground and alliances prevalent., and details some of Hezbollahs capabilities. https://twitter.com/ejmalrai




APPENDIX 2
Extraordinary cooespondent Elijah Magnier needs your support to complete book on Hezbollah. Click orange button for further details. 


 

A Book On Hizbullah That Deserves Your Attention

We have often quoted Elijah J. Magnier’s reports from Syria and Iraq. His insight and access to the various actors on the ground is unique. Yesterday he posted this request:

Elijah J. Magnier‏ @ejmalrai – 7:06 PM – 9 Feb 2018
I’m raising money for Writing My Book on Hezbollah. Every contribution helps, whatever the amount. Be my partner in this project! I can’t do it without you. Click to Donate

Originally from Brussels Magnier reported from Beirut during the Lebanese civil war. During the U.S. war on Iraq and the following occupation he lived in Baghdad and Najaf. Over the last years he has covered the war on Syria and against the Islamic State.

While other writers sit in tinker tanks far away from the front, Elijah is there and talks with the relevant people.


Elijah Magnier on his way to an interview with the marājiʿa
Iman Ali Shrine, Najaf, Iraq, 2017- bigger
From his book description:

Hezbollah: The Unlikely Peacemakers
From Domestic Resistance To A Regional Army  Hezbollah’s very existence arouses passion, and it is criticised as much for its alleged faults as for its achievements. As a war zone correspondent, I am privileged to have watched in person the creation and development of Hezbollah since 1982. I have met and interacted with many of its commanders during the last decades from Lebanon, to Bosnia, Iran, Syria and Iraq, and shared aspects of its activities on the ground, its weakness and strength. My unique experience (1982-2017), my inside information are of vital importance and need to be shared – through my book. Now I am ready to start writing but I can’t do it without your donation. Whatever your views or allegiances, understanding this organisation has huge and surprising implications.

The book is expected – hopefully – to be published first in English and later in two more languages: Arabic and French.

Magnier’s insight of Hizbullah will become an indispensable source for anyone interested in the modern history of the Middle East.


Elijah Magnier interviewing various leaders and authorities, 1980s/90s – bigger
I usually do not promote other projects or products on this site. This book project though deserves your attention.

Posted by b on February 10, 2018 at 03:52 AM | Permalink



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