V I D E O B E L O W
People in Donetsk proudly examine the destroyed hardware—tanks, APCS, GRAD rocket launchers, etc.—captured during operations against Kiev’s forces.
Add to all this the following: the Ukies are desperately trying to prove to the world that they are “winning” whereas the Resistance is trying to eject an occupying force. Now if you keep all that in mind, you will very easily understand how these “cauldrons” form. It typically goes like this:The political powers in Kiev order the commanders of the so-called “anti-terrorist operation” to show some results. The latter get together and define what they consider a number of key towns and villages. They then order their forces to go in and take these towns/villages. The junta forces move in and with much superior firepower typically destroy a few Resistance roadblocks on the main roads and move to seize the said towns. At this point they report “mission accomplished – our flag is on the administration of town X“. The BBC picks up the info handed to them by the Ukies and the world learns of yet another Ukie victory. In the meantime, Ukie terror squads are brought in to smoke out any sympathizers of the Resistances in the occupied towns. As for the tanks, they are used to protect the Ukie force while their artillery is used long range to terrorize the population of the next town on the list.
Then everything goes down the tubes.
First, a big force requires lots of petroleum, lubricants, ammo, supplies, food, etc. But the roads are under constant attack by Resistance forces. Next, the Novorussians slowly but inevitably bring in some artillery which begins pounding on the Ukie forces. Gradually, the bigger Ukie forces are forced to dig in while the Resistance take back full control of the main roads and surrounding towns. That’s it – the circle has closed, the Ukies are surrounded and a ‘cauldron’ has formed.
At that point two things happen: a) the Ukies try to retreat b) reinforcements are sent in to rescue them. But at this point the density and quality of Resistance forces is sufficient to block the main roads and to prevent both retreats or reinforcements. In some cases the Ukies succeed in breaking out or reinforcing, but typically at great costs in equipment and lives. And that brings me to another important point:
The Ukies prefer to fight on the main roads. The Resistance is at home in the forests, hills, fields and bushes (what the Russian military calls the “The Green”). That means that Ukie movements are very predictable. Not so for the Resistance. The Ukies fear the “Green” – the Novorussians love it. I don’t know of a single battle so far in which the Ukies attempted to attack through, or from, the “Green”. The Novorussians do that all the time.
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Kiev’s “punitive army” suffering huge losses
Dmitry Dzygovbrodsky reports: “My friends and I got the data from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the real losses of Ukrainian troops – thanks to honest and noble officers that do not support the criminal government. Poroshenko struggles to hide the real losses from the people. Because zombie population of Ukraine would experience quite a shock on hearing the real numbers and real “victories” of the army.”
“When it comes to Ukrainian losses, pro-American puppets are either shamefully silent or lie blatantly. The real information about the situation at the front, which is fed to Poroshenko, fell into the hands of Vladimir Rogov. According to the data, as of August 15, the losses in the ranks of the punitive operation forces are: 23,498 killed and wounded, 158 taken prisoners, 8972 missing and deserted. The junta suffers colossal losses in recent days. But these terrible for mothers of Ukrainian soldiers figures remain hidden from publicity.”
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Pretty soon, supplies become a real problem, and with more or less the entire Ukie Air Forces kaput, and the density of anti-air weapons of the Resistance, even large units go from a fighting mode to a survival mode. At least 4 Ukie death squads are in that mode right now, today.
But remember, the Ukies sill have more armor and more firepower, so it is not that easy to reduce and crush a cauldron – that is why the Resistance needs so much time to eventually finish them off. They do though, one by one. If they had the time and forces, they could do it easily, but they don’t.
Right now, the main forces protecting Mariupol are all stuck in 2-3 cauldrons southeast of Donetsk. But instead of wasting time reducing them, the Novorussian Armed Forces have launched an attack along the sea coast towards Mariupol where the Ukies are already in a panic mode as nothing much stands between them and the Resistance. And this is the correct move for the Novorussians.
Just as in chess a blocked figure is essentially useless, so is a Ukie force in a cauldron. The important thing is to keep the initiative and press the advantage. This is why the Resistance is pushing towards Mariupol. If that city is taken, or even surrounded, or if the cauldrons south of Donetsk are reduced, that will mean a collapse of the entire southern front of the Ukie attack on Novorussia.
There are risks however. First, any Novorussian force moved in or towards Mariupol risks being cut off and surrounded by Ukie reinforcements. Now, I don’t know for a fact what the Ukies are up to, but I bet you that there is total panic in Kiev and that reinforcements are sent from all over the country to prevent Mariupol from falling into Novorussian hands. The Novorussians need to keep a very careful eye over their shoulder (but then, I am pretty sure that the many GRU eyes in space and on the ground are already doing that for them). Second, the surrounded Ukies can try to join forces and then either break out or attack towards the north. If they fail, they will probably either do what they have done in the past – run for their lives and abandon all their heavy equipment or fight to the last man. Either way is fine for the Novorussians.
I hope that the short (and somewhat simplified) explanation above explains, at least in general lines, why and how these “cauldrons” are constantly forming.
Cheers and kind regards,
The Saker
Larchmonter445 said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
Sampanviking said…
I would say that the NRA are warming up the biggest cauldron so far!
VINEYARDSAKER: said…
les said…
IMO there is an additional factor that comes into play with the Cauldrons.The cauldrons are a test of how far the different sides are willing to go in this war. With each cauldron there is the temptation on the part of the Junta leadership to dig out and use bigger and more powerful weapons. The range of weapons allowed to them, is of course, monitered and controlled by the West.For each increase in the power of the weapons used, Russia has responded in kind and presto the militia has had the ability to counter the new threat.I believe that in this carefully played-out scheme there is a repeated message to the watching eyes of the Middle East, Armenia/Azerbaijan, and other potential trouble spots.Every time the Ukrainian forces up the ante by using bigger missiles and bombs, Russia gives the militia an upgrade in the weapons it allows in. When mercenaries and special ops from outside countries start operating, then Russian special ops start operating. Remember the transport plane that was shot down all killed all those those “Ukrainian” army guys? Most were rumoured to be US/CIA special ops. So why was it that this one transport was hit – when at that time no others had been hit and for a week after none were hit? Why just that one?This stand-off is a message to western forces in a really big range of countries right now. While Russia is not going in and getting directly involved in a war, they are declaring very loudly that the West should be sure Russian friends will be able to defend themselves.
Anunnaki said…
VINEYARDSAKER: said…
Anonymous said…
ProPeace said…
Grieved said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
VINEYARDSAKER: said…
John 97205 said…
MINSK SUMMIT PROGNOSIS
Alexander Mercouris…Everyone acknowledges that there is not going to be a breakthrough. Here are some points:1. The talks would not be happening were it not for:(1) the junta’s losses in its military campaign in the Donbas;
(2) the gathering collapse of the Ukraine’s economy (see below on this page); and
(3) the recent sanctions debacle which has aggravated the economic crisis in Europe…6. [of 8]…In my opinion what Putin will be insisting on in Minsk is…a return to what was agreed in Geneva on 17th April 2014, namely:(1) an immediate unconditional ceasefire;
(2) constitutional negotiations between the parties;with an implicit recognition that the result of (2) may go far beyond the federalisation proposal that was discussed back in the period February to Jun….
John-Albert said…
Julian said…
NATO War Summit in Wales.September 1-7, 2014
Supposedly we are going to get a look at a Preliminary Report into the crash of MH17 in the first week of September. I don’t expect much, but you can expect a Russian reaction if this report is a whitewash.September 14, 2014
Swedish General Election. Will it favour pro-NATO or anti-NATO forces? Or is that already pre-ordained. I’m not sure, but any Russian aggression would no doubt spur anti-Russian sentiment pre-election.September 14, 2014
St. Petersburg Election. Presumably “Putin’s man”, whoever that is, will win this. Putin wouldn’t want to do anything rash to threaten thisOctober 1, 2014
Jens Stoltenberg replaces Anders “Fogh of War” Rasmussen as the Head of NATO. Surely Stoltenberg will have to be an improvement on Rasmussen, and might have some ability to actually ratchet down the tensions between Russia/ The West if he is given a chance? If Russia intervenes before Stoltenberg is given the job that boxes Stoltenberg into a corner and allows him no room to argue for a rapprochement. One must hope Russia has been in Stoltenberg’s ear to try and get someone in a position of authority in the West who actually understands diplomacy! (Probably a forlorn hope, but we can all dream).October 5, 2014 – Brazilian Presidential Election. As a potentially key ally in South America, any actions Russia takes in Ukraine prior to the Brazilian Presidential Election likely lead to harsh rhetoric in Brazil that could potentially seriously damage relations with Brazil, and by extension South America. Something best avoided by Russia as it courts Brazil and South America.October 5, 2014
Bulgarian General Election. Surely the issue of South Stream is key here. Any overt Russian aggression in Ukraine before this election is likely to play into the hands of any Bulgarian party that is pro-American, pro-European Union, rather than any party that seeks a sensible policy of engagement with Russia. If Bulgaria can be brought onside with regards to South Stream, that greatly strengthens Russian relations with not only Bulgaria, but also Serbia, Hungary, Austria & Italy.
October 20, 2014
New Indonesian President Jokowi inaugurated. This is of a lesser importance in specific regards to Ukraine, but worth noting as Indonesia would be a great prize (The world’s 3rd largest democracy), if it can be persuaded to join the BRICS. Perhaps the BRIICS.
Julian said…
Second Round of the Brazilian Presidential Election if requiredOctober 26, 2014
Ukrainian Legislative Elections. Newly put on the agenda, but long expected. Any overt Russian aggression before these elections would obviously play directly into the hands of Ukrainian Nationalists/ Fascists and provoke a strong anti-Russian response at the elections which would legitimise continued Ukrainian war-mongering in Eastern Ukraine. This might well happen anyway, but any Russian aggression would guarantee it.October 31, 2014
Jose Manuel Barroso steps down as head of the European Union to be replaced by Jean-Claude Juncker. Barroso is a well known Atlanticist in the Americans pocket. On the other hand, Jean-Claude Juncker is clearly Pro-European, and not so worried about America. Juncker would appear much more likely to cut a deal with Russia that fixed relations between Russia-EU, rather than tow the line from Washington or London. This was most evident in the UK’s utter opposition to Juncker’s appointment to this post. Juncker may be the guy Russia is actually waiting for, and they may have even told him they won’t intervene in Ukraine until he becomes Top Dog at the EU and they can cut a deal? Purely speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised.November 4, 2014
US Mid-Term Elections. Once again, any overt Russian aggression would play into the hands of anti-Russian rhetoric candidates in the US Mid-Terms. Much better to give them nothing of substance to pontificate about and keep Russian hands clean prior to these elections.November 14-16, 2014
G-20 Leader’s meeting in Brisbane, Australia. All the world’s most important leaders will be here. Any Russian action that appears to undermine peace and security in Europe will be condemned largely and loudly by leaders at this meeting if it happens.If Putin can keep Russian hands clean until mid November, he has a strong hand to argue to the likes of the BRICS, and also Germany, France, the EU and others, that it is not Russia that is fomenting trouble in Ukraine, but only in fact Russia that is trying to truly find a diplomatic solution to these problems.Who knows what happens over the next 2 months in places like Iraq & Syria either. It appears the US/UK/NATO is about to get more heavily involved in conflict in these countries – this will also favour the Russian approach for peace above and beyond the US/UK/NATO strategy of airborne warfare.If Putin can hold out until the G20 Leader’s Summit (and given events on the ground in Donbass this looks increasingly likely), I believe he will win the favour of a majority of World Leaders at this Summit for his approach. That will be a watershed moment in international relations and politics.As I’ve outlined above, between now and the Leader’s Summit there are key elections in Sweden, St. Petersburg, Brazil, Bulgaria, Ukraine and the USA. 6 Key Elections in the next 12 weeks.Putin must maintain his patience during this period. The other thing is, by mid-November, the gas shortage will be getting acute and Ukraine will be ever more likely to cut a deal favourable to Russia the closer we get to Winter.After the G20 Leader’s Summit, I can’t see any more important elections until the following April 2015 (Finnish Election).It is mid-November, in my view, when things will really start coming to a head between Russia/ Ukraine/ EU/ US.
Nora said…
Anonymous said…
I was not clear on what excatly a “Cauldron” was but your expanation cleared it up completely! Interesting reading too. You say it’s a simplfied version, would love to read the detailed version! Keep up the great work!
Anonymous said…
“In an effort to avoid unintentionally strengthening the Syrian government, the White House could seek to balance strikes against the Islamic State with attacks on Assad regime targets.”I predicted this 2 years ago. USA would intervene either directly, or would shoehorn itself in via war on terror bullshit.What’s the possibility of Syria officially requesting direct military operational assistance from Russia? That’s the only way to keep Obama’s vile mechanization from playing out, I’m afraid
Julian said…
Alien Tech said…
michael/tucson said…
Anunnaki said…
Anunnaki said…
Anunnaki said…
——That is to make up for the fact that Uki conscripts only get 12 bullets to practice with their rifles in training before sent into battle
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
вот так
SanctuaryOne said…
Any thoughts?
John 97205 said…
Anonymous said…
We know that the “Militia” is dead (according with Zakharchenko in his video) and now the Novorussians have a “formal” army.
Well, as you say often, Ukies have more weapons, more troops (or cannon fodder, whatever), more everything but moral, do you consider a right step to convert militia in a formal army?
Formal army seems to me like a heavy pachyderm and hard to do fast movements as militiaman in small “guerrilla” group does.
Since I have no military skills nor knowledge in this area, am I very wrong?
If yes, could you explain the main differences between both?
And again, many, many thanks for the excellent work you do to keep us informed.
Cheers.
SanctuaryOne said…
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.”For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble”SECOND WITCH:
“By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes”
Anonymous said…
August 26, 2014 | Categories: Guest Contributions | Tags: | Print This Article Print This ArticleFormer official of the German Ministry of Defense says the world has heard enough of
EU lies.“People here in Germany are fed up with NATO lies.”It is a 5 minute interview:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54Y28LR3tyk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Anonymous said…
The rest of your post shows that you are a moron and will waste of time any answer.
Frustrated Canadian said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
thierry_st_malo said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
sasy said…
Ixtlan said…
Weiqi: Obtain Larger Territory = Greater “market share”Brain Functions Used In PlayingChess: Almost Entirely Analytical (left brain).
Weiqi: Fully utilizes/integrates analytic (left brain) and artistic/pattern recognition (right brain) functions. Intuitive analysis. One requiring multi-tasking.Number of possible First Moves.Chess: 20 White x 20 Black = 400.
Weiqi: 361 Black x 360 White = 129960, although symmetry reduces this number to an effective 32,490.Estimated Number of Possible Board Configurations
Chess: 10 to the 120th power
Weiqi: Most believe that the correct figure is in the order of 10 to the 174th.
Military Analogy
Chess: A single battle.
Weiqi: An entire multi-front war.
The Nature of Play
Chess: Primarily tactical, with only a modest strategic component.
Weiqi: Profoundly strategic, but with incisive, complex, integral tactics.
While the United States, a Chess player, is tightly focused on the Iraqi/Middle East conflict, which it considers to be the key to world peace and a springboard for global American hegemony, the Chinese and Russians are playing Weiqi on the global game board; with long term goals and multi-front objectives. While other global interests and alliances burn, America fiddles in the Middle East.
Russia and China are waging a multi front, non-military war while the US is obsessed with extending its domain by threat, and military coercion; seemingly incapable of the multi tasking necessary to look after its global interests. The US is investing several hundred billion dollars in a war, which in the end will bring no benefit to the United States, only grief and increasing, unsustainable debt. In the meanwhile, the Chinese are accumulating trade surpluses.
It seems to me that Russia and China are following the basic principles and concepts of Weiqi;
Acquiring territory by isolating its opponent’s pieces, by finessing them, not using force and the assumption that removing the “King” or the opponents “pieces” will secure victory.
Engaging in a multi front effort: not narrowly concentrating and counting on a single objective to achieve its ends.
The US and the Ukies are using Chess as the basis of their strategy.
Lance said…
Maedhros said…
Anonymous said…
Then why not wait for another 14 years?? That will please his western partners more.can there be such a weaakling to lead the world or nation?
Anonymous said…
MK Ngoyo said…
These are all western propaganda myths. One can wonder why Hitler lost and Stalin won if that was the case.Haven’t you heard? It was the weather and the mud that defeated Hitler in WW2.
Yonatan said…
MK Ngoyo said…
MK Ngoyo said…
Seamus Padraig said…
Anonymous said…
Bill said…
Nora said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
Anonymous said…
NotSoFast said…
Maedhros said…
===========================I like the smell of idiocy in the morning…
Larchmonter445 said…
But I agree with the notion that Go is the non-Western mode. Even for the great Chess-minds of Russia, the superiority of GO as the game planning operating system will win in the end.GO is a referenceI employ in my own espionage novels, so I have a strong affinity for it.You straight-forward post was spot on.
Anunnaki said…
John 97205 said…
Brad Cabana / Rock Solid Politics
27 August 2014I like the vision 😉 :At the time of this post there are 9 encircled formations of Ukraine troops with an estimated total strength of 20,000…the units now trapped, and the ones trapped prior to this and already eliminated, represent the entire core of Ukraine’s professional army……the NAF has moved in the South…including an amphibious landing just east of Mariupol on Ukraine’s south coast……With Ukraine’s entire rear exposed, including all the way to the capital Kiev, it will have no choice but to rapidly withdraw West…The NAF will…be free to advance in the centre and bypass (if still heavily defended) or capture Slavyansk and area moving directly to the City of Dnepropetrovsk on the Dnieper River – which is to become the new westerly border of a new Novorossyia (New Russia).…Once the NAF capture and secure Melitopol, the Ukraine defences along the Crimea border are exposed from the rear. At that time the separatist region of Moldova, Transnistria, which houses Russian and “Transnistria Self-Defence Forces”, is likely to strike southward toward Odessa.…All these moves combined mean a few things…Ukraine will cease to function as a country. Its already desperate financial position will be crippled by the loss of one half of the country – the most resource rich part. Thirdly it means that Ukraine will become landlocked and essentially a new “pocket – like” area. If NATO were to move into this area, they would be surrounded on three sides by Russia, Novorossyia, and Belarus. It would be indefensible. Therefore, Ukraine, or what’s left of it, turns into an economically barren no mans land between East and West…
Anonymous said…
From Uploader Xendrius:”I noticed that the ‘death’ of Foley
made headlines on Swedish news,
and those good-for-nothing journalists
ACTUALLY BELIEVE THIS IS THE REAL
FOLEY, so I carefully analyzed the
footage, the interviews, and every
other piece of data, and concluded,
without any doubt, that the person
who is supposed to be beheaded, is
not James Foley.Because they assume ‘Hey, if the US
government says it’s real, it’s real.’It seems that they are using the
beheading video, to have ‘truther’
channels shut down. I have seen 2-3
channels shut down because of “breach
of community guidelines” for uploading
the full video. In other words, a trap.
Video (6 min):100% FAKE: James Foley Beheadinghttp://www.ForbiddenKnowledgeTV.com/page/26634.html- Alexandra
krollchem said…
The Ukraine Rope a Dopehttp://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com
Larchmonter445 said…
Anonymous said…
juliania said…