Looking into the recent developments in Saudi Arabia: Is the monolith finally shaking?
[box type=”bio”] Editor’s Log: The recent warming up of relations between the Russian Federation and the Saudis has raised many eyebrows across the globe, and discomfited many people on the left who had begun to regard Russia as an avatar of world progressive politics. For starters, as noted elsewhere, the Saudis, besides being a key petro-client of the West, and one of their best weapons customers, remain a firm accomplice of the Anglo-Americans and NATO in their depredations in the Middle East, and an objective ally of Israel, most recently serving as a willing cat’s paw in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and other conflict areas as far as Russia’s own underbelly and Asia—wherever their ignoble unlimited cash and fanaticism will reach. But apparently the Saudis—like all mafias— also have a healthy self-preservation instinct. The Yemen war may have had some effect on their sense of invulnerability, or the resolve of Washington’s military umbrella. Hedging their bets they may have decided to open a dialog with Moscow, perhaps in the hope that, by purchasing weapons—always a big ticket item, they might neutralize Russia as a provider of weapons or weaken her determination to support Assad and other players hostile to Washington’s and their own designs. Russia, for its part, may be showing Washington that if the latter is reckless enough to seek strategic assets in Russia’s own backyard, so can Moscow deepen its presence in America’s obsessive strategic possession, the Middle East. The KSA in that light may be a bargaining chip to throw against NATO’s still growing “circle of steel” around Russia. The situation is still shrouded in mystery and conjecture in terms of the deeper undercurrents. Below a series of reports and analyses that might throw some light on this developing story. Please do note the views expressed in this compilation, especially those by mainstream Arabs, such as Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, may not coincide entirely or at all with our own but are cogent and/or newsworthy enough to merit presentation. —PG[/box]
FILED BY THE SAKER
Why is Saudi Arabia going on a weapons shopping spree in Russia?
[dropcap]R[/dropcap]ussian media outlets are reporting that Saudi Arabia is negotiating a 2 billion dollars weapons deal with Russia which would include the sale of 150 helicopters (30 Mi-35 and 120 Mi-17), over 150 T-90C tanks, about 250 BMP-3 (infantry combat vehicle) armored vehicles and several dozens of anti-aircraft systems and complexes including the brand new S-400 Triumf missile system. In the meantime, Russia is also clearly delaying the sale of its S-300 missile system to Iran prompting some angry remarks from Iranian Chief of Staff of Iran’s Joint Armed Forces Hassan Firouzabad. Is this all a coincidence?
One needs to remember here that Saudi Arabia has often served as the USraelian Empire’s banker, providing money in support of US strategic objectives (the best examples of this are the war in Afghanistan and the US support for the Nicaraguan “Contras”). Why would Saudi Arabia, which has always relied almost exclusively on US made weapons systems, suddenly turn to Russia? Most definitely not because Russian weapons systems are better – which they undoubtedly are, by the way – as weapons purchases are almost never decided on the basis of technical capabilities. Three factors decide in such deals: the kickbacks given to the officials involved in the deal, the political pressures and allegiances of the countries involved and the offset agreements provided as an incentive by the parties (including, of course, even more kickbacks).
In this case, the US is as least as corrupt as Russia and can easily match any kickbacks, the political allegiances of the Saudis are clearly with the USA, and there is no way that Russia could offer better offset terms than the USA. Hence – the Saudi shopping spree, if confirmed and finalized, is definitely a reward for Russia’s reneging on the S-300 deal with Iran.
The Iranian military Chief of Staff Hassan Firouzabad is, of course, quite correct when he asks the key question: “Don’t Russian strategists realize Iran’s geopolitical importance to their security?“ While I am quite confident that Russian strategists understand this perfectly well, I am also inclined to believe that these strategists do not have the final say in Russian policymaking. Call it the almighty Dollar, or Ruble, or Riyal – the bottom line is that the Russian government appears to favor short-term economic interests over long-term national security objectives. If that is true, that is very bad news indeed.
—The Saker
Agreements between Saudi and Russia will affect the whole region
June 22, 2015 Updated: June 22, 2015
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince and minister of defence Mohammed bin Salman at the international economic forum in St Petersburg last week was nothing short of historic.
As columnist Jamal Bnoun noted in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat, the pair signed a number of bilateral agreements, including one for cooperation on a peaceful nuclear programme in Saudi Arabia.
The writer said: “The agreement between Saudi Atabia and Russia certainly opens a new window for joint cooperation, additional privileged relations and common interests. More importantly, it is an opportunity to thwart attempts to undermine security in the region.”
He said this diplomatic move could not have come at a better time for Russia, as it finds itself weighed down heavily by stringent economic sanctions. The Russian economy has been hard hit, especially by low oil prices and a currency collapse. This has prompted it to start talks with Iran over possible oil imports in exchange for wheat and other food products.
Russia realises the importance of having a significant and strong strategic partner in the Middle East, and to achieve this it is prepared to change some of its political stances.
Saudi diplomacy was on the money in terms of timing and choice, Bnoun said, and Prince Mohammed’s visit to Russia had reinstated the balance of power in the region.
“The Saudi kingdom is entitled to build a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes,” he said, noting that the country had established itself over the past decades as “a most influential Arab and global force”.
The writer added: “The choice of partner was significant. Russia is a great power with substantial international weight. It is one of the most important players in our region.”
The Moscow-Riyadh rapprochement is beneficial for both countries and for the Middle East, Bnoun said, because Iran and Israel could not be allowed to have unbridled influence on the region’s politics.
Russia stands to benefit enormously from the agreements which, in addition to improving its economy, will reinforce the Gulf nations’ trust in it. This would eventually lead to a change in its diplomatic and political positions vis-à-vis the specific issues of Syria, Iran and Yemen.
The Saudi columnist Abdulrahman Al Rashid wrote in the London-based daily Asharq Al Awsat that the most interesting thing about the Deputy Crown Prince’s visit to Russia was that it deviated from traditional practice.
It took place at a time when the United States and its European allies are boycotting Russia economically in the wake of the events in Ukraine.
“This time around, contrary to habit, the Saudi government decided to revive its trade relations with Moscow and sign agreements and deals in the vital sectors of gas, military and nuclear technology,” the writer said. “It is indeed a rare occasion when Riyadh sets on a course opposite to Washington’s.”
For the past 20 years the Saudis have supported the western decision to boycott Iran and stand up to it regionally, only to find out that Washington has stabbed them in the back and struck an agreement with the Tehran regime without consulting with them, the writer asserted.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that Saudi Arabia has decided to turn against its positions and alliances, but that it is most probably looking to expand its options.
After all, Al Rashid concluded, Russia remains a great power and it is actively seeking to become a significant player in our region.
* Translation by Racha Makarem
Is Saudi Arabia next? If so, that could very dangerous
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Lastly, the KSA has a praetorian guard in the form of the “National Guard” which is not at all what the name might suggest. It is, in reality, a successor force to the infamous Inkhwan, a uniquely Wahabi kind of terror squad: very primitive, totally ruthless and utterly brainwashed. The NG (currently 125’000 soldiers plus another 25’000 tribal thugs) is just the same Inkhwan, but with a modern polish on it, though it is still always commanded by a high ranking member of the royal family. This force is mobile and extremely well armed (courtesy of Uncle Sam). Interestingly, this force has no main battle tanks which, if needed, proves again that the only ‘enemy’ it is trained to fight (by Uncle Sam, of course) is the civilian population of the KSA.
PS: don’t take this to the bank, but as far as I know, the favorite fetish of crazed Wahabis (Chechnia, Bosnia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Algeria, etc.) for cutting the throats of their prisoners comes from a desire to be Ikhwan-like as the latter are the ones who started this fashion. I am not sure about that though, nor do I know where the Ikhwan got that idea.
…
Does anybody know if there any Koranic or “Sunnic” (is that English?) basis for throat-cutting?
Opinion: The Russians are coming to Saudi Arabia
Written by Abdulrahman Al-Rashed on Sunday, 21 Jun, 2015
[dropcap]L[/dropcap]ast week I attended a closed seminar organized by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in the US capital. It mainly focused the crises in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The looming nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran dominated the discussion, since it represents an important political turning point. Some of the attendees asked about reactions towards this deal and its potential consequences, whether on the political or military fronts. Others anticipated that the deal will provoke several countries in the region, encouraging them to work on their own nuclear programs, with the aim being to “obtain what Iran got in its nuclear deal” with Western powers.
This explains the great interest in Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s visit to Russia last week. It is now clear that Saudi Arabia has decided to join the nuclear club, by signing a deal to build 16 nuclear reactors, at the same time giving Russia the biggest role in operating and overseeing those reactors. This does not necessarily mean that the Kingdom’s focus is on armament; at the same time, it is a clear sign that Riyadh has decided to enter the nuclear scene. Last month, the Saudi education minister signed off scholarships for 1,000 students to study energy technologies, including nuclear energy.
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, travelled to Russia recently as the oil-rich kingdom and US ally tries to build bridges with President Vladimir Putin. The 30-year old deputy crown prince, who has led the kingdom’s air war in Yemen, met Pres. Putin on the sidelines of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum for talks that show how Moscow is searching for new approaches to the Syria conflict. (Simeon Kerr in Dubai and Kathrin Hille in Moscow.)
READ MORE OF THIS LINE OF OPINION BY CLICKING ON THE BAR BELOW
An Iranian diplomat in Moscow said Moscow was playing a dual game over Syria.
“Russia is trying to keep different tracks right now . . . [It is] supporting the Syrian government [and] trying to gain influence in opposition groups and getting ready for a future without Assad,” he said.
Although Russian weaponry remains vital to Mr Assad, Moscow has cut its presence in Syria substantially, pulling out about 100 military advisers.
Yet Russia is not ready to drop Mr Assad because the secular opposition is weak and Moscow remains resolutely opposed to Islamists, according to one former Russian diplomat.
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Regular article resumes here
Russia has been a high-profile supporter of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which is locked in a bloody four-year civil war against rebel groups including jihadis such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis). Saudi Arabia is supporting secular and “moderate” Islamist rebels in the hope of unseating Mr Assad.
Prince Salman’s visit comes as the US and Gulf states also seek to encourage Russia in support a political transition away from Mr Assad.
In my opinion, the most important feature of the Deputy Crown Prince’s visit was that it was not customary; it took place at a time when the United States and its European allies have decided to economically boycott Russia, sanctioning Moscow over events in Ukraine. This time, the Saudi government took an unusual step and decided to do the opposite: rekindle its relations with Moscow, grow business ties, and sign agreements and deals in vital fields such as gas and nuclear and military technologies. This is one of the rare times that Riyadh has taken an opposing line to Washington. But the reason is clear: the Saudis who supported the Western position to boycott Iran for 20 years have discovered that Washington betrayed them when it decided to collaborate with Tehran, without coming to an understanding with its partners who had joined the initial boycott.
Of course, we shouldn’t read into any new developments outside political frameworks, because I can hardly imagine that Saudi Arabia has decided to turn against its alliances—but it probably wants to get out of the narrow US corner and expand its options.
Russia has always been an important country. It has recently decided to become a more active key player in the region, at a time when the current US administration has chosen to significantly shrink its engagement, and adopt policies at odds with those of the Gulf states. The US supported Baghdad despite its sectarian policies, and left the Assad regime in Syria to commit the greatest tragedy in the history of the region: 250,000 deaths and the displacement of 10 million people. It seems that the negativity generated by Washington’s side, and the dangerous outcomes resulting from its policies, have made the Saudis think about expanding their choices and political investments across both East and West.
Although Saudi Arabia reinstated its relationship with Moscow nearly 14 years ago, it has remained limited. No important promises of cooperation had been implemented so far: Saudi Arabia did not buy Scud missiles as agreed, and Russia did not get anything out of the gas deals. However, today it appears that the Moscow–Riyadh road has become more active. Russia’s ambassador to Riyadh, Oleg Ozerov, has said that Russia has been granted an area of land to build the new headquarters of its embassy in Riyadh’s Diplomatic Quarter. In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin reiterated his call to Saudi Arabia’s King Salman Bin Abdulaziz to visit Russia. President Putin has also received an invitation to visit Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia wants Russia, which is a key player in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, to be on its side. Russia plays an important role in the military balance with Iran, a task that will need intensive and constant efforts.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
[box type=”bio”] Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the general manager of Al-Arabiya television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad. He has a US post-graduate degree in mass communications, and has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He is currently based in Dubai.[/box]
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