THE WEST’S GREAT WAR AGAINST RUSSIA
Syria, the Ukraine, and other battlefields are just proxy conflicts. The object is the defeat and destruction of Russia as an independent world power.
By Andrew Korybko, Fort Russ (A Fraternal Site)
As destabilizing as the Kurds’ announcement was and might eventually turn out to be, it’s still far from certain that they’ll achieve their stated objective by the time everything is said and done, and it’s much more likely that they took the steps that they did as part of a calculated political gambit in securing a seat at Geneva. Regardless of their motivations, however, it’s undeniable that the genie of federalization has been released from the think tank bottle and is now oozing into the mainstream, but the doom and gloom pertaining to this scenario doesn’t mean that it’s irreversibly inevitable and that there isn’t time left to stop it.
SIDEBAR
For millennia, the Kurds have been a subjugated and often brutally persecuted minority spanning modern Turkey, Iraq, Syria and other areas. While under Ottoman rule a relative peace existed between all the inherently explosive empire’s religions, sectarianisms, and ethnicities, Western meddling has broken this balance and increased the tensions and hatreds a thousandfold.
Smoke And Mirrors
While it initially appears as though the Kurds are dead-set on establishing a quasi-independent self-rule federal statelet in northern Syria – and many of them might very well hold these intentions – it’s also likely that the timing of the announcement was meant to give them bargaining leverage at gaining a seat in Geneva. Both Russia and the US are in favor of this, but the organizational framework of the talks is such that all sides need to agree on the inclusion of another participant, and it’s here where Turkey stands as the only visible obstacle to that.
In any case, the Kurds have played their ultimate card by announcing a federal state because there’s no realistic way that they’ll transgress UNSC Res. 2254 by declaring independence and experiencing the dual wrath of Russia and the US, the two most significant guarantors of that agreement. Therefore, the logical circle once more returns to the point of emphasizing that this is all part of a larger geopolitical game that’s playing out in Syria right now, one in which the Kurds are trying to maximize their political, military, and territorial gains of the past five years as much as possible concurrent with the legitimate Syrian authorities doing whatever they can to restore the unitary nature of the state that almost every single family has sacrificed to defend.
In connection with the latter’s motivations, the news that Syria wants to include the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into the reconciliation format can be seen in a pragmatic and relevant light. While it’s extremely unlikely that this historic territory will be returned anytime soon (let alone as a result of Geneva III, no matter how proudly commendable it is that the issue was once more raised to global attention), it’s much more probable that bringing it up at this specific time is one of Damascus’ chief negotiating ploys. There’s a high chance that Syria will tactically walk back from this later in exchange for the US convincing the Kurds to concede their federalization ambitions and accept a much more mild form of simple autonomy.
The Voice Of The People
Because the upcoming vote is recognized by the UNSC and will certainly generate global media coverage, patriotic Syrians have the unique opportunity to make their voices heard in resolutely coming out against federalization by voting for pro-unitary candidates that make the issue an explicit part of their electoral platform. In this manner, Syrians can reverse the Western information momentum against them by capitalizing off of the worldwide attention that they receive to show the international community just how strongly they oppose federalization and the determination with which they want to retain their country’s unitary identity.
The patriotic population came out in droves in 2014 when they reelected President Assad by the huge margin of 88.7%, and with their history of civic partition as a precedent, there’s no reason to doubt that they won’t do something similar in saving their country from the latest foreign plot that’s being actively directed against it. The reader should bear in mind that regime change against President Assad is a lot less important to the US and its allies right now at this critical juncture than ‘legally’ reengineering the Syrian state to their long-term and sustainable geostrategic advantage via the enshrinement of Identity Federalism into a new constitution, and keeping with this imperative, it’s crucial to explain the grandmaster trick that the West might try to play in actualizing this sought-after objective.
Playing Dirty
Predicting that the Syrian people will treat the upcoming elections as a de-facto referendum on federalization and that they’ll overwhelming vote against such a scheme, the US might order its European allies to play the ultimate card in their deck so as to offset this process in a desperate last-bid attempt at derailing Syria’s sovereignty. As is known, most of the major European countries do not recognize the legitimate and democratically elected leadership of President Bashar Assad, and as such, they don’t have any formal diplomatic interactions with Damascus or any bilateral ambassadorial presence with Syria.
This creates a major complication for them in trying to disrupt the electoral process by having anti-government and pro-federalization Syrians that have immigrated to the EU (many of which satisfy this criteria) go to their embassies and vote for likeminded candidates. Without the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Syria, preconditioned of course on the EU recognizing President Assad, there’s no way that these people can vote and they’ll thus remain disenfranchised like they were in the 2014 election.
Therefore, it’s quite possible that the US will command its European proxies to take the bold move in recognizing President Assad’s legitimacy prior to 13 April so that the anti-government and pro-federalization Syrians can partake in the upcoming election at their host country’s newly reopened embassy and throw off the results of the vote. Even if they don’t succeed in having a majority of the parliamentary figures be anti-government and pro-federalization individuals, if they can command at least a convincing plurality of around 20-33%, then they can proceed with their argument that some sort of federalist clause must be included in the constitution to satisfy the will of the substantial political minority. A possible workaround that Damascus could proactively enact in this instance would be to decree that only Syrians with legitimate documents can vote in their embassies, and that all others must return to the country to receive their documents and/or vote there. This could cleverly weed out the patriots from the opportunists, the latter of which would likely remain in their cherry-picked EU welfare resort of choice instead of relocate back to their native homeland.
From there, the formerly unified country would be easy picking for the vultures to divide and rule between themselves, with it eventually being likely that only the security crescent between Damascus, Homs, and the littoral governorates would essentially remain under the Syrian Arab Army’s protection, if that. All the other areas would probably receive their own federalized status and accompanying ‘regional army’ (constitutionally legitimized armed “opposition”), thus making them totally susceptible to being ‘traded’ between Syria’s many enemies as they jockey to boost their geopolitical position in the strategic Levant region.
Concluding Thoughts
This opens up the foreseeable possibility that the forthcoming elections on 13 April can essentially become a referendum on the federalization question, and if patriotic Syrians overwhelmingly vote for pro-unity candidates in the same enthusiastic manner as they reelected President Assad in 2014, they’d be able to convincingly show the world just how strongly they reject the pressured imposition of this external plot on their country. In parallel with this, the US might direct its EU subordinates to recognize the Syrian government and President Assad in the run-up to this event so that the anti-government and pro-federalization Syrians that they host could be bribed or pressured to vote for corresponding candidates in order to offset the patriotically unifying results that are otherwise to be expected.
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