DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
[dropcap]W[/dropcap]hen Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo was indicted for several crimes we predicted that he would become more dangerous:
Netanyahoo will fight tooth and nail to gain and keep immunity. He will try to delegitimize the judicial and he will use any available trick to stay in office.
That makes him even more dangerous than he usually is.He might even decide to do something, like starting a big war, to prevent his removal from power.
Lebanon, Syria and Iran must watch out.
Now the former MI6 agent and diplomat Alastair Crooke detects a new Israeli attempt to instigate a war on Iran:
“This is a historic opportunity”, whispered one of Netanyahu’s insiders into Ben Caspit (a leading Israeli journalist)’s ear this week: ..
...
What sort of history might that be? Why six months? Well, Caspit points up:
“Netanyahu’s people, headed by minister Yuval Steinitz clearly state that a widespread war is likely to erupt in the next six months between Iran and its adversaries in the region, including Israel”.
And the new Defence Minister, Bennett, threatens Iran on an almost daily basis.
“Perhaps Netanyahu simply needs a war with Iran in order to survive politically,” one of the Blue and White leaders told Caspit: “That is scary and dangerous …” .
There is nothing new with that, one might say. Netanyahoo has for years plotted to instigate a U.S. war on Iran. But there was so far no reason for the U.S. to wage one. War needs a narrative, a story than can be sold to the people who will have to pay for it. Crooke sees a possible one in the recent riots in Iran and elsewhere:
Well, here it is: “For a long time it looked like the spread of Iranian influence across the Middle East was unstoppable. Now, the entire Iran-hegemony enterprise is at risk. Protests have been going on in Iraq and Lebanon for weeks, bringing their economies to a near standstill, and forcing their Iran-approved prime ministers to step down. There’s no end in sight to the protests …”.
And hence, the Israeli push – led by the newly-appointed Defence Minister, Bennet, that now – precisely – is the moment for the US to act against Iran. This is the narrative for war.
So the idea is that the current turmoils in the 'axis of resistance' countries - Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran - has weakened Iran so much that it can be attacked.
Lebanon is in a currency crisis because the U.S. has sanctioned remittances from expatriates (around $8 billion per year) to the country. That has triggered the collapse of a fraudulent scheme used by the rich in Lebanon to increase public debt while channeling the state's money through the central Banque du Liban into their own pockets:
The BdL has issued Treasury bonds at very high interest rates; most of that debt has been bought by other Lebanese banks. Jad Chaaban, a professor at the American University in Beirut, has found “individuals closely linked to political elites control 43 percent of assets in Lebanon’s commercial banking sector.” He also calculated that, to take one example, the Hariri family had earned $108 million between 2006 and 2015 from interest on the public debt.
The idea behind the U.S. sanctions was to economically hurt Hizbullah, to instigate a civil war against it and to remove it from the Lebanese government. But the scheme failed. While the Lebanese pound lost some 40% of its value Hizbullah raised the pay for its people:
Today, no Lebanese citizen is able to dispose of his own saving or company assets in banks due to restrictions on withdrawals, effective “capital controls”. Only small amounts are allowed to be delivered to account holders–around $150-300 per week in a country where cash payments prevail. No one is allowed to transfer any amount abroad unless for university fees or special demands of goods import of first necessities.
However, Hezbollah, the US-Israel main target, was not affected directly by the US sanctions and by the new financial restrictions. Militants were paid, as is the case monthly, in US dollars with an increase of 40% (due to the local currency devaluation) with the compliments of “Uncle Sam”.
(As many Syrian banks and industries have used the Lebanese banking system, the currency crunch in Lebanon also led to a sharp drop of the Syrian pound. This is a problem for Syria but its allies will help to dampen the effects.)
The U.S. sanctions against Lebanon failed to have the desired effects. There will be no civil war against Hizbullah. The group and its missiles arsenal, which acts as deterrence against Israel, are as ready as ever.
The protests in Iraq are genuine and they have brought the government down. But the U.S. attempt to use them against the Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbi), created in 2014 by Iran to defeat the Islamic state, is also failing. The U.S. position in Iraq is weak. It can not out-compete Iran's influence:
President Barham Salih launched talks immediately after Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation by making rounds with different political blocs. Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force and the architect of its regional security apparatus, also came to Baghdad to meet with key officials.
U.S. military bases in Iraq are increasingly coming under fire.
Genuine protests against fuel price increases in Iran were followed a day later by prematurely triggered attacks from underground groups against the country's infrastructure and banks. Iran reacted immediately to eliminate them. As Crooke describes it:
The security forces reacted militarily – arresting and killing many insurgents. And yes – the internet was shut down. But, not the internal Iranian internet – only the global internet. So, the Iranian equivalent of WhatsApp and Telegraph, and Iranian news channels were still accessible – though the global internet was not. The overseas anger at the external internet shut-down possibly reflected surprise and irritation that Iran had this capability. Likely, it was not a capacity that Iran was thought to possess.
So what was going on? The Iranian government, it seems, had prior knowledge of plans to stage attacks by ‘activists’, as a part of an (externally formulated and resourced) disruption plan. But that original plan indicated that the start of these actions would take place early next year.What seems to have happened is that when the fuel hike protests began, these ‘activists’ were given the go-ahead to ‘seize the moment’. In other words, they activated all their pre-prepared plans prematurely. This was exactly what the Iranian security forces wanted, and had sought. It enabled them to ‘smoke out’ the plot, and to arrest, or kill the ring-leaders.
To build the underground network of insurgents in Iran must have taken years. It was likely done by the CIA in collaboration with the MEK cult. The militants were supposed to be directed, like the rioters in Hong Kong, via Internet messaging services. When those command and control lines were cut Iranian security services had, as we predicted, no problems to eliminate the militant groups.
The U.S. has tried everything against Iran except waging an outright war. But its schemes against Iran and its friends are failing everywhere.
The U.S. pressure campaign against Iran was an item of a State Department press conference on Friday where Matt Lee of the Associated Press challenged Assistant Secretary Schenker's assertion that the campaign shows 'success' (it does not help that Lee is almost as incoherent as Schenker and has difficulty getting a word in edgewise—Ed):
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: The Iranians oftentimes, or have certainly in the past taken aggressive action when they feel under pressure. We see that in the response to, for example, the maximum pressure campaign working over the months. The past five, six months, Iran has become increasingly more aggressive. There is a trajectory, right, where they have first increased the operational tempo of the Houthis against the Saudis, then raised the rhetoric and the temperature in Iraq against U.S. personnel, moving on from there scuttling boats in Fujairah, then kidnapping boats, then shooting down U.S. drones in international airspace, and most recently Abqaiq, targeting directly with their own missiles Saudi oil facilities.
...
QUESTION: And then you seem to suggest right now that the maximum pressure campaign is a success because it has resulted in greater Iranian aggression and shooting down U.S. drones.
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: I – no.
QUESTION: Well, that’s —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: Maybe that’s what you inferred.
QUESTION: No, no, no, that’s – that’s – well, no, that’s I think the way —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: The pressure campaign is working. They are clearly under fear and pressure, and they are lashing out. They are also —
QUESTION: Yeah, but if that’s a success, I mean —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: They’re also having double-digit negative growth.
QUESTION: Fair enough.
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: The people in the streets are protesting against the regime for its corruption and for its economic mismanagement —
QUESTION: Yeah, but surely there’s —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: — for spending all the money of the Iranian people on militias abroad, like in —
QUESTION: Surely the metric – surely the metric for the success of U.S. policy, foreign policy anywhere, not just with Iran, is that the country – the other country is less aggressive and less likely to shoot down U.S. drones or attack U.S. bases or threaten —
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SCHENKER: There is – no, Matt, there’s – to be fair, there – things sometimes get worse before they get better in those terms.
The U.S. consistently overestimates its capabilities to bring Iran to its knees. While Iran's GDP is falling for lack of oil sales the internal economy is thriving and employment is on the rise as imports get substituted by local production:
The rise of the dollar brings a large change to the price structure in Iran, opening substantial opportunities for profitable production in the non-oil sectors that employ the 99% of the workforce. These are the sectors which are overwhelmed by cheap imports when oil income lowers their prices.
So, in reverse order, and as economic textbooks read, when oil income drop and prices of imports increase, demand shifts from foreign to home goods, encouraging firms to hire workers and expand production. For example, in the past visits to Iran I might have bought a box of Kellogg’s cereal because it tasted better than the Iranian brand and was only twice as expensive. But this past summer, with devaluation having increased the price ratio to four or five, I decided to buy the Iranian brand. Surprisingly, it tasted better, either because the quality had improved or because prices determine taste for Isfahanis!
Inflation in Iran, caused by the U.S. sanctions, is coming down to sustainable levels. The government's new budget is designed to depend to less than 10% on oil sales:
Rouhani told parliament that the budget of 4,845 trillion rials, or $36 billion at the current street rate, was devised to help Iran's people overcome difficulty.
...
Rouhani said that despite the US sanctions, his government expected to earn almost 455 trillion rials ($3.4 billion) from oil exports. But he also said Iran's non-oil economy would "be positive" in the next year.
So while Iran and its allies are under stress they are certainly not in danger of collapsing. The Israeli war narrative is fraudulent.
Netanyahoo may want a war, if only to stay out of jail. But war is not popular in the U.S. and Trump will not start one during an election year.
What Trump needs is an off-ramp from his failing aggression against Iran. He needs talks with Iran but the country insists that he must first lift the sanctions.
I expect him to do that only after his reelection.
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Posted by b on December 9, 2019 at 18:26 UTC | Permalink
Select Comments Sampler
Excellent journalism once again b! Thanks for that.
Control of the narrative to make it seem that things are supportive of a war against Iran are not working as you describe and this is making the US and Occupied Palestine more frantic in their attempts to start one.
Thanks for the part of your reporting that explained that Iran only cut off external internet access.....which neutered the CIA backed narrative support.....very smart on the part of Iran.
The US and Occupied Palestine need a serious war to keep the focus off their internal problems and social/economic disintegration.
As I wrote on the Open Thread, the world is in a standoff and it is coming down to who blinks first and my money is on late empire as represented by the US and Occupied Palestine. Trust goes downhill fast once it drops to a certain level and I think we are close to that tipping point.
And as us barflies have been writing for some time, empire needs to collapse of its own internal cancer and China/Russia, et al are being very good at keeping the bully from instigating obfuscatory conflict that draws all in.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 9 2019 18:47 utc | 1
I enjoyed the Schenker back and forth. If you needed an example of inept Imperial propaganda, that would be a good one to cite. Still, Bibi can do a lot of shit-stirring to get what he wants from the Empire.
Posted by: casey | Dec 9 2019 19:11 utc | 2
Meanwhile, given that the Murkans are not getting their way in the Middle East, they are taking it out on South America: Bolivia; Venezuela of course; Ecuador, probably Peru; Nicaragua; and now Chile. Think about APEC. Ah-ha.
to psychohistorian : there is an interesting follow-up article on zero hedge today, entitled The Fed Was Suddenly Facing Multiple LTCMs. Worth a look if you haven't seen it. Sorry, I don't do links - but I do dance. Cheers
Posted by: Miss Lacy | Dec 9 2019 19:12 utc | 3
Thanks b for adding to the analysis of Crooke's fine article. It was good to get confirmation of my prediction that Iran had its own internal internet that can be sealed, which also means its internal military com system is separated from the global internet--external cyber attacks will no longer see success. Today Zarif said he wanted to exchange further prisoners with the Evil Outlaw US Empire, but the "ball's in Trump's court;" and after this latest failed operation, Iran likely has hundreds it could parlay. Some may have missed Pepe Escobar's reporting on Iran b posted in the weekly review listing, thus its inclusion. Iran's economy will continue to improve as it's now operating in markets and systems outside Imperial control thanks to the myopia blurring anything beyond its nose. Iran's key move along with Russia was to diversify its economy away from energy sales and focus on promoting its human capital.
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 9 2019 20:01 utc | 4
RAI News interview (in English) with Assad now available on Youtube. SAG put it up after RAI News broke agreement to transmit it by a set date.
With the Washington Post reporting on Bush, Obama and Trump's lies about Afghanistan, it's becoming hard to understand why anyone still believes any of the bullshit about Syria propagated by the Washington elite including the CIA and State Department.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Dec 9 2019 20:05 utc | 5
I agree B, no way the bankers and their corporate scum can expect to defeat Iran at this point. Iranian response to an attack from anywhere might not be good for Israel.
Netanyohu and Google seem to be competing for the most dangerous entities award. very interesting the competition. The Iranian's seem intent on defending themselves.
On another note.. have a look at this
more fire the journalist to control the narrative stuff, very interesting
Posted by: snake | Dec 9 2019 20:06 utc | 6
I live in the south of France. Yesterday morning by opening the shutters at 6 o'clock, I saw in the night sky, facing east, a cohort of bright spots (lit by the rising sun of the east) as far as the eye can see. I went out and I understood, hearing a low continuous rumbling, that they were fighter planes over 8000 meters that were heading in the north-west-> southeast direction. I counted about 80 but I missed a lot. We are always worried when we see the pack ... Maybe it's future turbulence for the Middle East ...
Posted by: almare | Dec 9 2019 20:25 utc | 7
My Lebanese colleague explained to me last week that most wealthy Lebanese don't keep their money abroad, as you might suppose, but in Lebanon, in dollar accounts, because the interest rates are that much better. And so they're stuck with being limited to withdrawing $300 a week.
Posted by: Laguerre | Dec 9 2019 20:29 utc | 8
@ Posted by: Miss Lacy | Dec 9 2019 19:12 utc | 3 with the ZH call out of posting, thanks, I read that and it is too much in the weeds for MoA, IMO, but does point out another area where late empire is failing to maintain financial control, similar to the thrust of this posting.
Who is going to blink first? Or more the case, how much longer before the punch drunk bully collapses and the rest of the world picks up the pieces of humanity and moves on/evolves?
Miss Lacy, I do links and ecstatic dance at least twice a week
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 9 2019 20:37 utc | 9
Patience if a virtue for the Iranian people, but never misunderstand it by weakness, Iran is doing everything right, it has brought a rather under developed country in the 40-70's to a highly advanced country in terms of technology and education. It partially reflects in its military, but it definitively reflects in the daily life for Iranians.
There is no doubt in my mind Iran will be a powerhouse a decade for now, there are few countries in the ME, northern Africa and southern Asia that will be able to compete with Iran in many areas.
The apartheid regime's nightmare is exactly that, and Iran thus share it with the key members of The Resistance, and that is very scary to the anyone in Occupied Palestine.
I see, absolutely no way, that the US will venture in a war with Iran, not for the apartheid regime and not for anyone, any war with Iran means one thing, the end of the Occupation in Palestine, and surely the US doesn't want that, so sanctions will continue, war rhetoric will continue, until cheap warmongers are removed or a change in US Dollar dominance happens to the point anyone depending on it is forced to look for a different route thus geopolitics are changed for good. We are closer to either options, closer and closer.
Posted by: Canthama | Dec 9 2019 21:02 utc | 10
thanks b... excellent reporting..
regarding the constant narrative on going to war with iran..some will do all in their power to continue to convince the need for this - netanyahu in particular.. but aside from it being a huge mistake, how much of this is driven by capitalism and its need to exploit every corner of the earth?? is this really what the narrative is about - chasing after money 24-7? it sure looks like it to me... how else do the financial sanctions get rationalized? and, they are not working as your example notes.. when they get applied, the countries in question, find alternatives to kelloggs corn flakes and etc. etc whether it be in russia or iran... the financial sanctions have unintended consequences for the empire.. the empire imposes them to control the real narrative - the financial narrative - capitalism... it ain't working! time for war is the answer to all this, if you side with the present capitalist system..
that bit about "the Hariri family had earned $108 million between 2006 and 2015 from interest on the public debt." is pretty shameful and embarrassing for the hariri family with it's ties to ksa... i can't see how this works out for them long term, not that the hariri family are any different then the bush family and etc.. being willing to exploit your fellow citizens seems to imply money trumps national identity.. of course everyone knew this already... all these kleptomaniacs need to go live on an island somewhere and kill themselves trying to up one each other over this world game called monopoly.. most of us aren't into this game.. why force it on the world?
Posted by: james | Dec 9 2019 21:20 utc | 11
Below is a new posting up at ZH about Iran/Occupied Palestine & Syria
Israel Threatens Iran With "Own Vietnam" In Syria, Hints At Major Pre-Emptive Strike
no quotes...go read
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 9 2019 22:02 utc | 12
@Canthama #10
Indeed, it is ironic that Iran - despite literally decades of sanctions and international isolationism plus a long shooting war - has managed to create a very credible military and economy.
This is especially in contrast to all of its neighbors.
Posted by: c1ue | Dec 9 2019 22:13 utc | 13
even if trump lifts sanctions, which i doubt, iran would not renegotiate the jcpoa. iran's missiles are off limits.
Posted by: Toxik | Dec 9 2019 22:54 utc | 14
The brief interchange with Assistant Secretary Schenker, shows a man believing his own propaganda, and believing in his exceptionalism. The belief in one's own exceptionalism leads one to view oneself as superior to others (ie. Aryan Supremacy under the Nazis). Unfortunately, this belief leads to hubris, which leads to arrogance where one overestimates one's own capabilities and underestimates the capabilities of one's adversary; this always leads to fatal misjudgments.
Posted by: Dick | Dec 9 2019 23:31 utc | 15
psychohistorian @ 12
Either complete BS from Bennett or he's a fucking moron. Perhaps even both. There are no parallels between the American War on Vietnam and the current conflict in Syria except perhaps for the United States abusing the Kurds as they did the Hmong in Vietnam.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Dec 9 2019 23:33 utc | 16
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Some time ago, the commenting at Billmon's Whiskey Bar became a bit excessive. Billmon therefore closed the comments at his place on June 29, 2004. The community of commentators was left behind to search for a new place. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard started and still runs the site. Once a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. The name of the original Whiskey Bar was taken from Bertolt Brecht's Alabama Song where the first line goes: "Show me the way to the next whiskey bar". The name Moon of Alabama was taken from the first line of the chorus of that song: "Oh, moon of Alabama ...". You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
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