DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
With selected commentary
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]oday the U.S. declared war on Iran and Iraq.
War is what it will get.
Earlier today a U.S. drone or helicopter killed Major General Qassim Soleimani, the famous commander of the Iranian Quds ('Jerusalem') force, while he left the airport of Baghdad where he had just arrived. He had planned to attend the funeral of the 31 Iraqi soldiers the U.S. had killed on December 29 at the Syrian-Iraqi border near Al-Qaim.
The Quds force is the external arm of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Soleimani was responsible for all relations between Iran and political and militant movements outside of Iran. Hajji Qassim advised the Lebanese Hisbullah during the 2006 war against Israel. His support for Iraqi groups enabled them to kick the U.S. invaders out of Iraq. He was the man responsible for, and successful in, defeating the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. In 2015 Soleimani traveled to Moscow and convinced Russia to intervene in Syria. His support for the Houthi in Yemen enabled them to withstand the Saudi attackers.
Soleimani had arrived in Baghdad on a normal flight from Lebanon. He did not travel in secret. He was picked up at the airport by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes, the deputy commander of the al-Hashd al-Shaabi, an official Iraqi security force under the command of the Iraqi Prime Minister. The two cars they traveled in were destroyed in the U.S. attack. Both men and their drivers and guards died.
The U.S. created two martyrs who will now become the models and idols for tens of millions of youth in the Middle East.
The Houthi in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in Palestine, the paramilitary forces in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere have all benefited from Soleimani's advice and support. They will all take actions to avenge him.
Moqtada al-Sadr, the unruly Shia cleric who commands millions of followers in Iraq, has given orders to reactivate his military branch 'Jaish al-Imam al-Mahdi'. Between 2004 and 2008 the Mahdi forces fought the U.S. occupation of Iraq. They will do so again.
The outright assassination of a commander of Soleimani's weight demands an Iranian reaction of at least a similar size. All U.S. generals or high politicians traveling in the Middle East or elsewhere will now have to watch their back. There will be no safety for them anywhere.
No Iraqi politician will be able to argue for keeping U.S. forces in the country. The Iraqi Prime Minister Abdel Mahdi has called for a parliament emergency meeting to ask for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops:
"The targeted assassination of an Iraqi commander is a violation of the agreement. It can trigger a war in Iraq and the region. It is a clear violation of the conditions of the U.S. presence in Iraq. I call on the parliament to take the necessary steps."
The National Security Council of Iran is meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to "study the options of response". There are many such options. The U.S. has forces stationed in many countries around Iran. From now on none of them will be safe.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a statement calling for three days of public mourning and then retaliation.
“His departure to God does not end his path or his mission,” the statement said, “but a forceful revenge awaits the criminals who have his blood and the blood of the other martyrs last night on their hands.”
Iran will tie its response to the political calender. U.S. President Donald Trump will go into his reelection campaign with U.S. troops under threat everywhere. We can expect incidents like the Beirut barracks bombing to repeat themselves when he is most vulnerable.
Trump will learn that killing the enemy is the easy part of a war. The difficulties come after that happened.
In 2018 Soleimani publicly responded to a tweet in which Trump had threatened Iran:
“Mr. Trump, the gambler! […] You are well aware of our power and capabilities in the region. You know how powerful we are in asymmetrical warfare. Come, we are waiting for you. We are the real men on the scene, as far as you are concerned. You know that a war would mean the loss of all your capabilities. You may start the war, but we will be the ones to determine its end.”
Since May 2019 the U.S. deployed at least 14,800 additional soldiers to the Middle East. Over the last three days airborne elements and special forces followed. The U.S.has clearly planned for an escalation.
Soleimani will be replaced by Brigadier General Ismail Ghani, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war who has for decades been active in the Quds Force and has fought against ISIS in Syria. He is an officer of equal stature and capability.
General Ismail Ghani, Gen. Soleimani's replacement.
Iran's policies and support for foreign groups will intensify. The U.S. has won nothing with its attack but will feel the consequences for decades to come. From now on its position in the Middle East will be severely constrained. Others will move in to take its place.
Posted by b on January 3, 2020 at 9:05 UTC | Permalink
If Iran is smart they would ask Tulsi Gabbard to come to Tehran and try to make peace with Trump. Israel and the neocons in the Trump orbit want an excuse to attack Iran. Don't give them one. Take the high road.
A man elected by telling his followers he will stop all wars overseas and bring the soldiers home. How do you like them apples now?
Posted by: Jose Garcia | Jan 3 2020 9:19 utc | 3
Oh, it was certainly a grave miscalculation by the US. The NeoCons must have been pushing for it for years, and it wasn't the first assassination attempt. But I don't think the reprisal will be immediate. Retaliation needs to be carefully thought out, in order to avoid an exchange mounting in tension leading to outright war (certainly part of the US plan).
Posted by: Laguerre | Jan 3 2020 9:29 utc | 4
I was wondering, seeing as Netanyahu has suddenly dropped his Greek visit, and run back home, whether the retaliation won't be against Israel. Netanyahu certainly fears it.
Posted by: Laguerre | Jan 3 2020 9:33 utc | 5
Do not retaliate immediately to suit your enemies .
Let the world see how a civilised Iran responds to utter provocation by an uncivilised bully.
They used to call it Buck Braking.
The world (except the usual arselickers) will understand that retaliation is justified and the cost of defending every USA and Israel target will be huge.
When a threat is carried out it is weakened.
Go to World opinion.
Posted by: Boindub | Jan 3 2020 9:38 utc | 7
Hope al-Sadr has got sore balls from sitting on the fence. Small minded prick trying to use US for his small minded shenanigans. But whatever, if he mobilize his forces against the US, we might be able to cheer a few US bodybags on their way home. With no defences, Iraqi's will pay a high price, but bodybags have a major influence on US public.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2020 9:38 utc | 8
Soleimani will be replaced by an officer of equal stature.
I'm not sure I'd agree with that. Sulaimani was a figure of exceptional stature, and skill. But, as you say, he may yet be worth more dead than alive, as a martyr.
Posted by: Laguerre | Jan 3 2020 9:39 utc | 9
There have been all kinds of threats of retaliation for so long. Nothing materializes. Israel has been bombing targets in Syria with impunity. They’ve even bombed in Iraq.
There’s all kinds of strong words and rhetoric. Let’s see what if anything Khamanei does? Let’s see if the Iraqi parliament does anything? How are they going to force the US military to exit?
Posted by: ab initio | Jan 3 2020 9:40 utc | 10
The world will remember Qassim Soleimani as a pivotal figure in the struggle against US domination in the Middle East. Rest in peace Major General.
This surely must be the single most stupid thing Trump could do entering the election year.
How ironic that the warmongering Democrats will use the consequences of the targeted killing of an Iranian official as ammunition to kill this presidency.
Iran is not looking for an all out war, the response will be asymmetric and appropriate.
Straining US-Israeli relations and poisoning the political well in the US to accelerate the decline of the American Empire would be the ultimate revenge.
Trump repaid Sheldon Adelson, but more people will pay the ultimate price.
Posted by: Peter | Jan 3 2020 9:48 utc | 12
Though I fully believe Trump is capable of ordering a hit on one of the highest ranking generals in the Iranian military, I'm not necessarily convinced that is the case. My first thoughts on hearing news of the assassination were as follows: when the Pentagon and its corporate bullhorns make such a special point of telling us that Trump gave the order to kill such a high ranking military figure why do I harbor suspicions that might not have been the case? I don't need telling in capital letters that Trump did it, as I would assume the order would have to have come from the president without having to be told. Normally, Trump does the bragging bit himself. If it is to be done at all. That Trump ordering the hit gets such a special mention suggests that the Pentagon more often than not carries out similar operations irrespective of what the president might want. Well, my might musings may amount to what some what label a conspiracy theory but might a military coup just taken place in the US? After all, would the president have enough courage to tell the American people he had not given the order if that were the case? When we can't trust our leaders and we can't trust the media, who can we trust? And who is to be believed? Apart from that, the way the news is being released has a few unsubtle hints of dumping blame on Trump. A lot of people in the Pentagon, might either regret the operation, or were never given an inkling of what was about to happen.
Posted by: Bryan Hemming | Jan 3 2020 9:53 utc | 13
"The U.S. has won nothing with its attack but will feel the consequences for decades to come. Others will move in to take its place."
Wait for awhile on that one. Iraq will have to take some major hits if it tries moving to the Russia China sphere. And it will have to deal with the fith column which are strong. Iraq will have to go through the fire - like Donbass, Syria ect until it is distilled to a solid core and then they will get support that will drive back the yanks.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2020 9:53 utc | 14
Iranians have to do nothing, every rocket, bullet or treeleaf which falls in the vicinity of an American will be labeled a counter attack of the iranians. And thus striking fear, they will live their own nightmare.
The tweet of khamenie yesterday provoked trump, trump did exactly as aspected when sulieman made his public trip to iraq. Maybe he is as dead as Epstein or he did underestimate the american stupiditty.
Posted by: Gary | Jan 3 2020 9:55 utc | 16
Posted by: ab initio | Jan 3 2020 9:40 utc | 10
There’s all kinds of strong words and rhetoric. Let’s see what if anything Khamanei does?
You underestimate the gravity of the crisis. It's much more profound than that, not far off 9/11 level. But there won't be instant retaliation. That would be foolish.
Posted by: Laguerre | Jan 3 2020 9:59 utc | 17
Nice one, b, thanks...
I've been following Elijah M. and several others on twitter, as well as more mainstream sources for several hours after learning of these assassinations.
The absolute stupidity, maliciousness and wickedness of the US Political and Military Elites is truly astonishing. They have misjudged every single thing in that part of the world since 9/11 and the invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and then Iraq - and spent/wasted well over $5 trillion. not to mention the horrific loss of life everywhere from Syria to Iraq and Yemen. And we are now looking at another even more catastrophic war.
it is unbelievable
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jan 3 2020 9:59 utc | 18
The price of crude oil has jumped over $2 USD on the world markets since the news
I expect the US to fully resist being booted out of Iraq (which would also make its two major positions in Syria highly untenable). Who could now believe that US troops in Iraq and Syria won't come under sustained attack now, by the many allies Iran has in the area?
Elijah gives breaking news
https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1213032002682867715
Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Sistani considers "the #US attack against the #BaghdadAirport is a clear violation of #Iraq sovereignty".
That is clear support for the US withdrawal from #Iraq.
AND
S Sistani condemns the "attack against Iraqi (not Iranian-militia) position on the borders killing our Iraqi sons to the hateful attack on #BaghdadAirport is a violation and internationally unlawful (US) act against anti-#ISIS hero(s) leading to difficult times for #Iraq".
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jan 3 2020 10:05 utc | 19
Really, the ball is in Iraq's court. This is an attack on Iraqi sovereignty as much as an act of war on Iran. We will now see what the Iraqis are made of.
Posted by: bluedotterel | Jan 3 2020 10:07 utc | 20
@never mind "Soleimani really the target?"
Trump was personally responsible for having the organisation Soleimani led declared a terrorist organisation. Time to quit the "Trump is a dumbfuck led by others" Trump is around 70 and has been his own boss all his life. He is now commander in chief of the US military. He gives the orders, nobody else. He doesn't give a shit about the cold war and Europe, hence people thinking he is a peacenik. What he does care about is enemies of Israel and control of energy.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2020 10:07 utc | 21
I am left wondering to what extent the events were pre-planned.
Seems very possible that Trump will never actually be impeached. As a war President, his legacy will be guarded. Was impeachment ever anything but a distraction prior to a false-flag and escalation?
IMO Trump's Presidential contract with the Deep State likely includes NO IMPEACHMENT and NO RELEASE OF HIS TAXES. Both to guard his "good name" because Trump see the the "Trump" brand as his biggest asset.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 3 2020 10:07 utc | 22
The best revenge the Iraninans could have would be the expulsion of US troops from Iraq and Syria, which by the way was also the overarching goal of Soleimani...
No blood but his work completed..
Russianstyle revenge.
Posted by: Bjørn Holmgaard | Jan 3 2020 10:11 utc | 24
bluedotterel
If the Iraqi politician had anything resembling balls, they would have kicked the US out the moment Trump proclaimed he had 'secured' the Syrian oil. Will have to do some research on whether Iraqi politicians can produce kids.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2020 10:17 utc | 26
Bryan Hemming@13
You (far more elaborately) illustrated my take.
I personally think he gets 'strongly advised' on which course to take, and even if he disagrees goes along anyways. Maybe it's just plain selfish expediency, or one of many other reasons.
Makes one wonder if the raids on Epstein's residences landed the deep-state some very incriminating footage.
Perhaps they 'own' him outright now.
I'll be surprised if the next election doesn't bring major civil unrest to the USA.
Then 'they' will have something to really worry about, directly in their own laps, for a change.
Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Jan 3 2020 10:20 utc | 27
Trump doesn't give a shit about soft power. He believes in hard power. Iraq has no defence against the US, and Trump intends to attack Iran. He needs a 9 11 to take the American population with him.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 3 2020 10:29 utc | 29
"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com. 
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