DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
Respected blogger Moon of Alabama comes out strongly in favor of quarantine measures. Anti-establishment ranks remain divided on issue.
Anti-lockdown demonstrations have proliferated in many US states, but as some real journalists have pointed out, such demonstrations are far from spontaneous, as many rightwing groups are being actively financed by libertarian billionaires such as the Kochs' network, and others of similar plumage.
Corbett then highlights a discussion on Twitter between me and the Off-Guardianaccount.
Surely your not actually advocating the forced removal of “infected” people from their homes against their will? #COVID19 #coronavirus https://t.co/c7EhuhGqo7
— OffGuardian (@OffGuardian0) April 9, 2020
To separate infected from non-infected people is the ONLY way to stop such an epidemic.
— Moon of Alabama (@MoonofA) April 9, 2020
Reminds me of the Bottom Inspectors in Viz pic.twitter.com/qHPCAm7njw
— Luniverse Music: (@al_da_drone) April 9, 2020
It started with this:
vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley - 5:33 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
#BillGates funded World Health Organisation advocate forced removal of family members fm homes if "tested" positive for #COVID19 even tho test is not proven reliable. So, govts hve corralled us in homes & will now unlawfully raid & extract citizens under poss. false pretext.
I retweeted that and remarked:
Moon of Alabama @MoonofA - 22:30 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
China did this in phase 2 of the Wuhan quarantine because it was the only way to protect the families from their infected members. Without that policy Wuhan would not have ended the epidemic.
Current test reliability is relativ high if test is immediate used when symptoms appear.
OffGuardian retweeted my tweet and launched the discussion:
OffGuardian @OffGuardian0 - 10:54 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Surely your not actually advocating the forced removal of “infected” people from their homes against their will? #COVID19 #coronavirus
MoonofA: To separate infected from non-infected people is the ONLY way to stop such an epidemic.
OffGuardian: So let’s be totally clear. You believe the govts - the same ones who have lied us into wars, murdered innocents and destroyed the environment - should have the power to invade our homes and take away apparently healthy people whom they “SUSPECT” of being infected?
MoonofA: Our governments already have the right to do so under certain circumstances. An epidemic which threatens the health of all is one of them.
OffGuardian: That is not an answer. Do YOU believe these corrupt govts, which you have been opposing for so many years, should be able to enter people’s homes and take away people they claim to “suspect” of being infected?
MoonofA: I support quarantine measures during epidemics. We have had these for many centuries for good reasons. We should again use them.
OffGuardian: You support arrest and detention for people the govt claims to suspect MAY have a virus that - according to official estimates - is harmless or mild for 80-99% of those infected.
You do. MoA. Former champion of human rights and justice.
Have you lost your mind?MoonofA: You are framing a measure that protects your and other families as "arrest" and "detention". It is neither of those.
OffGuardian: Oh ok. So, should the people ‘suspected’ of being infected be allowed to leave when they choose?
If your answer is ‘no’, then this IS arrest and detention and you are hiding behind blurry language.
As it made no sense to continue I stopped to respond. Later Mark Sleboda jumped in to support my view:
Mark Sleboda @MarkSleboda1 - 5:02 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Replying to @OffGuardian0 and @MoonofA
Leviathan - save me and mine from such fools.
Another discussion between OffGuardian and him unfolded from that. OffGuardian seemed to become a bit desperate when it then tweeted this nonsense:
OffGuardian @OffGuardian0 - 19:14 UTC · Apr 9, 2020
Replying to @MarkSleboda1 @ghigoberni and @MoonofA
So you would support indefinite detention for anyone who may be carrying flu virus then. It’s a lot more dangerous to healthy people and children than #covid19, as any epidemiologist will tell you.
I have not heard of any epidemiologist who has claimed that. But maybe I am reading the wrong ones. This graphic though from the British Office of National Statistics does not look like a flu outbreak:
The same ONS data was used by the Financial Times to produce this probably better visual:
Source: bigger
The few high blue dots around December/January time frame show exceptionally bad flu seasons like the London flu of 1972. Similar charts from other countriesshow the same effect for current covid-19 outbreaks. Without control measures like the current lock-downs the red line would certainly go through the roof.
The covid-19 disease the novel coronavirus causes is not a "flu". We largely do have 'herd immunity' against the flu. But this is a new virus causing a new disease. Nearly nobody is yet immune against it. It works in ways we are still just beginningto understand and there is no established therapy.
If we let this epidemic run wild without any control measures the death toll will be exceptionally high. The death per infection rate in Germany is currently estimated to be 0.53% (via Christian Drosten). It may be higher in other countries. That looks like a small number but remember that nearly no one has yet acquired immunity. It would probably take a year for the epidemic to run through a whole country.
Great Britain, with a population of some 60 million, would be theoretically looking at 300.000 excess death within one year. But the health care system would completely break down and thereby vastly increase the total death toll as there would be no care for most of the critical covid-19 patients and no beds for the usual other cases. That may already happen as Britain is now estimated to already have 41,000 excess death from the current epidemic.
Current estimates say that 2 to 3% of the population have so far developed anti-bodies against the virus. They likely give some immunity but we do not know how long that will hold. Should this epidemic have weather dependent waves the first one will likely end during the summer. Model calculations show that only some 6-7% of the population would by then have acquired immunity.
A second wave will then come during the winter. It will be worse as it will start everywhere at the same time and will come on top of the yearly flu season. We will then likely again need some harsh control measure like temporary lock-downs and case quarantains.
Now back to the Off-Guardian and Corbett critique. My view on the epidemic was always based on science. You can follow how it developed through the list of posts attached to this one. As I watched how China defeated its outbreak I had hoped that other governments would take similar measures. With globally concerted action we could have completely erased this disease!
But one slips into a pandemic with the governments one has, not with the ones one wishes for.
Will our 'elites' use the crisis to further enrich themselves. Sure. Will they abuse some of the control measures? That is practically guaranteed. And it does not change a damned thing with regards to the pandemic.
It is now too late to defeat it by eradicating its source. Social distancing measures like lock-downs are needed to keep the epidemic under control and to not overload our health care systems. Should the next outbreak wave be worse than the current one we will need even harsher measures than we currently have. I will support those because I know that they will save lives.
If that makes me an 'authoritarian' in the view of some then let it be so.
I for one find it more useful to tell people to make and wear masks than to post 'expert opinions' (scroll down) from PR-company sites which disagree with the scientific mainstream while their estimates of the total death toll have already been exceeded.
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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:
- The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic - Jan 25 2020
- Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline - Feb 1 2020
- The Epidemic Recedes - Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline - Feb 8 2020
- Coronavirus - Statistical Change Causes Confusion - New Case Count Continues To Decline - Feb 13 2020
- Coronavirus - The Decline Of New Cases Continues - Economic Ripples Begin To Emerge - Feb 21 2020
- As Virus Spreads Over The Planet Governments Are Slow To React - Feb 27 2020
- Coronavirus - Its Time To Press Your Government To React Faster - Feb 29 2020
- Coronavirus - Bad Preparation And Propaganda Increase The Onsetting Panic - Mar 6 2020
- Why Is The Coronavirus More Dangerous Than The Flu? - Mar 9 2020
- Coronavirus - The Hidden Cases - Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now - Mar 11 2020
- News-Nugget About The Coronavirus Pandemic - Mar 13 2020
- The Pandemic Will Cause A Global Depression - We Need Demand Side Measures To Counter It - Mar 16 2020
- Coronavirus - A Lockdown Is Not Enough - Mar 17 2020
- False Claims About The Novel Coronavirus And How To Debunk Them - Mar 19 2020
- Congress Grifters Profit From Crisis - Mar 20 2020
- Coronavirus - On Western Government Failures And Possible Therapies - Mar 21 2020
- Coronavirus - How To Lift Lockdowns And Why We Should All Wear Masks - Mar 23 2020
- More Bits On The Corona Crisis - Mar 26 2020
- U.S. Virus Cases Are Off The Scale - But Its People Can Build A Movement From This - Mar 31 2020
- China Did Not Deceive Us - Counting Death During An Epidemic Is Really Difficult - Apr 1 2020
- Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases - Apr 2 2020
- U.S. Will Cover-up Its Own Coronavirus Death Toll - Apr 6 2020
- Debunking Some Ideas About The Virus - Apr 14 2020
- The New Anti-China Campaign Is Built On Lies - Apr 18 2020
Posted by b on April 22, 2020 at 18:02 UTC | Permalink
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com. 
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Never thought i would say this but Moon of Alabama is poorly informed, already citing Christian Dorsten as a reference but also his other stats and informations on the Pandemic are not good and/or enough value. On the basis of what he knows it’s justified to support Lockdown, but he’s wrong. Here good Swiss Blog to educate oneselves since the beginning of Covid19 crisis with regular updates also in English: https://swprs.org