DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he Trump administration will continue its efforts to blame China for the novel Coronavirus because the epidemic situation in U.S. will soon become worse:
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.
The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.
There continues to be some infighting between the Trump administration and the intelligence services about blaming China. The administration wanted the U.S. intelligence services to claim that the virus was probably manmade or escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. The intelligence services disagree with the administration on both points.
The administration then penned a paper from open sources that contains those and other allegations and pushed it to friendly media.
Wuhan lab 'most likely' coronavirus source, U.S. government analysis finds - Washington Times, Apr 28
A Wuhan laboratory is the “most likely” source of the COVID-19 outbreak now ravaging the globe, according to a U.S. government analysis that catalogs the evidence and concludes that other explanations for the origin of the coronavirus are less credible.
The document, compiled from open sources and not a finished product, says there is no smoking gun to blame the virus on either the Wuhan Institute of Virology or the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, both located in the city where the first outbreaks were reported.
But “there is circumstantial evidence to suggest such may be the case,” the paper says.
“All other possible places of the virus’ origin have been proven to be highly unlikely,” the document concludes. A copy of the report, compiled this month, was obtained by The Washington Times.
A 'U.S. government analysis' based on open sources is not an intelligence product but a writeup on Google searches by some intern. But there was pressure to make it into an official intelligence judgment.
Trump Officials Are Said to Press Spies to Link Virus and Wuhan Labs- NY Times, Apr 30
Senior Trump administration officials have pushed American spy agencies to hunt for evidence to support an unsubstantiated theory that a government laboratory in Wuhan, China, was the origin of the coronavirus outbreak, according to current and former American officials.
...
Most intelligence agencies remain skeptical that conclusive evidence of a link to a lab can be found, and scientists who have studied the genetics of the coronavirus say that the overwhelming probability is that it leapt from animal to human in a nonlaboratory setting, as was the case with H.I.V., Ebola and SARS.
That this leaked at all was the first sign that the intelligence services were resisting the push from their higher ups. More push back followed with an official statement.
Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19 - ODNI, Apr 30
“The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
“As we do in all crises, the Community’s experts respond by surging resources and producing critical intelligence on issues vital to U.S. national security. The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”
That was not good enough for the "We lied, we stole, we cheated" Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (vid).
ABCNews 'This Week' Transcript 5-3-20
RADDATZ: And, Mr. Secretary, have you seen anything that gives you high confidence that it originated in that Wuhan lab?
POMPEO: Martha, there's enormous evidence that that's where this began. ... I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan.
RADDATZ: Do you believe it was manmade or genetically modified?
POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.
RADDATZ: Your -- your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.
POMPEO: That's right. I -- I -- I agree with that. Yes. I've -- I've seen their analysis. I've seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.
Then the same dodgy paper that was shopped to the Washington Times a week earlier appeared in an Australian broadsheet.
Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program - Daily Telegraph, May 4
China deliberately suppressed or destroyed evidence of the coronavirus outbreak in an “assault on international transparency’’ that cost tens of thousands of lives, according to a dossier prepared by concerned Western governments on the COVID-19 contagion.
The 15-page research document, obtained by The Saturday Telegraph, lays the foundation for the case of negligence being mounted against China It states that to the “endangerment of other countries” the Chinese government covered-up news of the virus by silencing or “disappearing” doctors who spoke out, destroying evidence of it in laboratories and refusing to provide live samples to international scientists who were working on a vaccine.
A "research document" prepared by "concerned Western governments" is not an intelligence product.
But Foxnews picked up from there and made the paper into one.
Leaked Western intel dossier reveals how China deceived the world about coronavirus - Foxnews, Apr 4
A research dossier compiled by the so-called "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance states that China intentionally hid or destroyed evidence of the coronavirus outbreak, leading to the loss of tens of thousands of lives around the world
The 15-page document from the intelligence agencies of the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia and New Zealand, was obtained by Australia's Saturday Telegraph newspaper and states that China's secrecy amounted to an “assault on international transparency."
The Australian Telegraph never claimed that the dossier was a "Five Eyes" product. That is a Foxnews invention. The five eyes countries share intelligence but they do not produce common dossiers or analyses. Each service does that separately for its own government.
Only a few hours after the Telegraph had published the above the Australian intelligence services shot the nonsense down.
Australian intelligence knocks back US government's Wuhan lab virus claim, Sydney Morning Herald, May 4
Senior members of the Australian intelligence community told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age a research document shared in political circles under the Five Eyes intelligence arrangement was mostly based on news reports and contained no material from intelligence gathering.
A 15-page "dossier" has been widely quoted by local and international media about China's alleged cover-up of the virus. Australian intelligence officials have since identified a research report which was based entirely on open source material. The officials said it was likely the reports were the same.
...
Multiple senior intelligence sources who spoke to The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in recent days have confirmed that Australia has still not been provided with any evidence that strongly suggests the Wuhan Institute of Virology was the source of the outbreak. Intelligence agencies have not been able to rule out the Wuhan lab, but the more likely cause of the virus is still the city's Huanan Seafood Market where environmental samples of the virus were found.
The WHO also said that its had received no evidence from the U.S. about the 'speculative' Wuhan laboratory claim.
The Trump administration is likely to continue this game and the intelligence services will hopefully continue to resist the pressure they are under.
As the U.S. will soon have as many death per day from covid-19 as it had casualties on 9/11 the risk of a (military?) escalation against China based on false claims will soon become exceptionally high.
Posted by b on May 4, 2020 at 18:20 UTC | Permalink
Personally i do not believe the so call CDC projection exploding 7-8 times higher compared to today because such a thing never happened in any other country in the world. That is - stabilisation at one of the highest rates in the world for 2 months and then exploding even 7 - 8 times higher at 200 000 cases per day. Such a thing did not happen in any other country in the world. I would not bet a cent on this.
So something is reaaaly wrong with those "projections", unless this is a worse case scenario that also did not happen in any other country in the world.
The way things are going, using the other countries as template and comparison, i see 25 k cases per day down to 20 k per day at the end of the month (May) and then around 10k per day in June, with probably 2k per day in July.
Although i do not like Trump and see him as far bigger imperialist than anything the Dems could muster, in this case the NYT is widely exagarating things to make Trump look bad.
Posted by: Passer by | May 4 2020 18:45 utc | 2
Anyone else thinking about how lunatic this whole scenario is.
Iraq was a total fabrication of appallingly poor "intelligence"
This bullshite isn't going to float.
And it's being tried on with the wrong guys.
Posted by: Jpc | May 4 2020 18:50 utc | 3
RADDATZ: Do you believe it was manmade or genetically modified?
POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.
RADDATZ: Your -- your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.
POMPEO: That's right. I -- I -- I agree with that. Yes. I've -- I've seen their analysis. I've seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.
To summarize: Pompeo does not doubt that the virus has been genetically modified, but he also does not doubt that is has not been genetically modified.
Could there be a more obvious demonstration that the man is FULL OF SHIT??
Posted by: farm ecologist | May 4 2020 18:53 utc | 4
Careful what you wish for, especially considering that the U.S. hasn't achieved total victory in all its wars since 1945. Of course, if you add up all the money wasted on them, then I suppose one might call that a victory, as in looting the U.S. treasury, both in government & blood. The more we read everyday, the more it resembles the inmates in charge of the asylum.
Posted by: Eugene | May 4 2020 19:03 utc | 5
Key U.S. Allies Skeptical of Trump’s Coronavirus Lab Leak Claims
Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada have pointedly not backed up America’s apparent surety that the novel coronavirus was either deliberately or accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab...Ottawa, Canberra, and London have all said investigations need to continue regarding the source of the virus.
Posted by: farm ecologist | May 4 2020 19:04 utc | 6
By March, it was clear how what was happening and how this would play out:
March 19: The Empire Games Covid-19
March 22: Trumped-up CRISIS! Allows Government-assisted Profiteering: Chloroquine vs Remdesivir
March 26: Flatten the Curve: A Prescription for Failure
March 28: Empire Games: CRISIS! as the New Bloodsport !!
Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 4 2020 19:06 utc | 7
To Farm ecologist.
You are totally on the money.
How or why is he in this job?
It's demented!
Posted by: Jpc | May 4 2020 19:13 utc | 8
Weird, the intelligence agency's telling the truth. I had difficulty getting my head around that.
Posted by: ramon | May 4 2020 19:13 utc | 9
The real blame China has is not "coverup" but the opposite: Overreaction When China ordered a province-wide Lockdown, it persuaded enough people that this was uniquely terrifying a virus as to merit extreme measures, setting stage for worldwide panic.
What if they were wrong?
We now know large declines in the transmission rate occurred BEFORE the lockdowns, meaning simple voluntary measures under a Swedish-style Stay Open scenario were enough:
The other finding is that, one way or another, this flu-epidemic passes as all others have. It's actually good news, because it means the worst fears were wrong and we can re-open.
Here in France, I have the impression that the virus is getting 'tired'. The numbers of deaths are falling like a stone, down from 6-700 to 160. The curve corresponds to the prediction of the controversial Pr Raoult of Marseille. He predicts no second wave. He says he doesn't know why the wave is like that, but observes that it is (perhaps for public consumption). I would have thought it obvious. Every time the virus replicates, there is a danger of error in the copy, which renders it less effective for the most part, much as in human cells. It can happen, of course, that eventually a mutation will happen that reignites the power of the virus, but most, no.
I would have thought that the same would be true in the US.
Posted by: Laguerre | May 4 2020 19:15 utc | 11
Those incompetent neo-confederates leading america into oblivion will jumble strategic defeats with winning. So much for accountability, hard work and personal responsability... Seems they can't compete fairly without superior military variable of adjustment and threat of violence against adversaries. Orange springs eternal and their great white hope has now adopted a paralizing rhetoric of victimization - republican lawmakers follow suit and are going so far as invoking a western bid for monetary reparations from Chinese depredations. # the art of winnig for maggots, derp.
Posted by: Sol Invictus | May 4 2020 19:16 utc | 12
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Thanks b... this requires ongoing observation... it seems the details can be provided for the right price to the right intel or science people and a story or dossier can be provided in time... that they are having a hard time at this point means they haven't paid a high enough amount of money - yet... give it time... if a war on china is going to happen, the money will be flowing in this direction and it will be made like any hollywood flick to seem more real then real... not a lot separates what hollywood does and what countries determined to sell propaganda do... Pompeo is a full on liar.. no wonder trump still has him on in his position...
Posted by: james | May 4 2020 18:38 utc | 1