DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
There is a campaign to push U.S. president Donald Trump into attacking Iran before he leaves his office. It is likely that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo, with the help of Secretary of State Mike Pompous, is the brain behind it.
The campaign started on November 16 with a New York Times piece which claimed that Trump had asked for options to bomb Iran:
President Trump asked senior advisers in an Oval Office meeting on Thursday whether he had options to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks. The meeting occurred a day after international inspectors reported a significant increase in the country’s stockpile of nuclear material, four current and former U.S. officials said on Monday.
A range of senior advisers dissuaded the president from moving ahead with a military strike. The advisers — including Vice President Mike Pence; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; Christopher C. Miller, the acting defense secretary; and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — warned that a strike against Iran’s facilities could easily escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of Mr. Trump’s presidency.
It is unlikely that Trump will want to ruin his legacy by launching another war in the Middle East. He will want to run again for president in 2024. 'America first', avoiding wars that are of no value for the U.S., was and is one of his major selling points.
There is precedence for such an Israeli campaign. Back in 2008 Netanyahoo had also tried to push the outgoing Bush administration towards a war on Iran:
During the last days of the Bush administration in 2008, Israeli officials, concerned that the incoming Obama administration would seek to block it from striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, sought bunker-busting bombs, bombers and intelligence assistance from the United States for an Israeli-led strike.
Vice President Dick Cheney later wrote in his memoir that he supported the idea. President George W. Bush did not, ...
While Israel has the capabilities to attack Iran it would never dare to do so without explicit U.S. backing.
Mike Pompous, the Cheney in the current attempt to drag the U.S. along, also wants to run for president - if not in 2024 then later. He is 56 years old and can wait a few more years. He is currently trying to catch the Evangelical vote and Zionist campaign support by pleasing Israel as much as possible:
On his recent visit to Israel, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo added new sanctions against Iran while also releasing a State Department statement defending Trump’s “maximum pressure” against the Islamic Republic. He boasted about the damage being done to the Iranian economy: “The Maximum Pressure campaign against the Iranian regime continues to be extraordinarily effective. Today, Iran’s economy faces a currency crisis, mounting public debt, and rising inflation. Prior to the Maximum Pressure campaign, Iran was exporting nearly 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. Now it struggles to export even a quarter of that volume.”
The Israeli campaign for a new war has come with several rather sensational 'leaks' pointing to such an event:
The United States this week rapidly deployed several heavy bombers to the Middle East this week in an apparent threat to Iran, amid swirling speculation that US President Donald Trump plans to take military action against Tehran before President-elect Joe Biden enters office.
...
In a highly irregular move, the B-52H Stratofortress planes were seen flying toward Israeli airspace on Saturday en route to the base where they will be stationed, likely in Qatar. The aircraft were spotted on civilian tracking software approaching Israel before they apparently turned off their transponders, rendering them invisible on those applications.
The rotation of B-52 bombers to Qatar is far from irregular:
It was the third time in the past year and a half that B-52 bombers, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and other powerful munitions, have been deployed to the region in tacit threats to Iran.
The base in Qatar is the B-52s' launching point for air support in Afghanistan. As the U.S. is currently reducing its troop numbers in Afghanistan amid a surge of Taliban activities the additional air support is called for to cover the retreat.
In typical Netanyahoo manner a recent 'secret meeting' between Pompous, Netayahoo and Clown Prince Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia was leaked immediately after it had happened. The fact that it was intentionally leaked makes it unlikely that the meeting was about an imminent attack on Iran:
[T]he contradictory news on Monday about such a meeting — with unsourced Israeli media reports saying it had taken place clashing with a denial from the Saudi foreign minister — highlighted the domestic politics in each country and signaled how far apart the two countries remained from the prospect of exchanging ambassadors.
...
Mr. Netanyahu, who has often been accused of leaking reports for political gain, had ample reason to trumpet any incremental steps in building relations with Saudi Arabia. He is eager to improve his standing at home as a leader who can turn Israel’s foes into friends and to divert attention from corruption allegations.The calculation is different for Prince Mohammed, who has told American visitors that he does not consider Israel an enemy but that opening official relations too quickly could inspire extremists and be used against him in a region where Israel remains unpopular.
Another Israeli 'leak' today is also designed to create the impression of an imminent attack on Iran:
The Israel Defense Forces have in recent weeks been instructed to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will conduct a military strike against Iran before President Trump leaves office, senior Israeli officials tell me.
...
Senior Israeli officials tell me they expect Israel will get prior notice ahead of any U.S. strike against Iran. But they're concerned that won't be sufficient to fully prepare. Thus the order to the IDF to start taking preparatory steps under the assumption that such a scenario is possible.
Iran has responded to the Israeli campaign by highlighting that any attack on it would escalate into a wider war:
An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader who is a possible 2021 presidential candidate is warning that any American attack on the Islamic Republic could set off a “full-fledged war” in the Mideast in the waning days of the Trump administration.
Speaking to The Associated Press, Hossein Dehghan struck a hard-line tone familiar to those in Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, a force he long served in before becoming a defense minister under President Hassan Rouhani.
(Why is a warning of potential escalation, should Iran be attacked, characterized as a 'hard-line tone' instead of a matter of course?)
Iran also asked its 'resistance' allies to avoid provocations that could be used as an excuse for an attack:
Iran has instructed allies across the Middle East to be on high alert and avoid provoking tensions with the U.S. that could give an outgoing Trump administration cause to launch attacks in the U.S. president’s final weeks in office, Iraqi officials have said.
The order, delivered personally by IRGC foreign proxy commander Brigadier General Ismail Qaani, came a day after seven rockets had hit near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Publicizing the order allows to characterize any further incident as a false flag provocation.
During the last 20 years all of the many rumors about imminent attacks on Iran were products of Israeli propaganda. I do not see why this time is any different.
Israel is deterred and does not dare to attack Iran. Hizbullah, Iran's ally in Lebanon, has enough missiles to destroy Israel's industry. Then there is this:
Aᴍɪʀ @AmirIGM - 8:39 UTC · Nov 4, 2020
Iran shows off what is essentially a Clip for launching missiles in quick succession from its underground missile cities. This mitigates the low number of launch ports at these bases and adds more possibility of overwhelming ABM systems. - video
Attempts by Netanyahoo to goad the U.S. into attacking Iran have been manifold. But Trump's legacy is on the line. I doubt very much that he will risk it for an attack that would have wide ranging and unpredictable consequences. How would it benefit him?
Posted by b on November 25, 2020 at 18:08 UTC | Permalink
SELECTED COMMENTS
@ b who asked about Trump
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But Trump's legacy is on the line. I doubt very much that he will risk it for an attack that would have wide ranging and unpredictable consequences. How would it benefit him?
"While Trump has a very large ego, he also knows he is a cog in a bigger machine that has goals that might even conflict with Trump's. That bigger machine is in a civilization war with China/Russia and Iran because they represent a viable alternative to the global private finance centered social contract of the West.
We have seen before that Russia has made it quite clear that Iran is under the protection of Russia which means this is all keep-the-fear-levels-high bullying and BS.
If Trump is going to further any part of the civilization war we are in before he leaves office, it will be in the financial area, IMO. I believe the elite want to move sooner, rather than later, to try and stop China, et al. That would be another "attack that would have wide ranging and unpredictable consequences." But this is a civilization war at the existential level, socialism or barbarism?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 25 2020 18:37 utc | 2
Long ago, Occupied Palestine hitched its wagon to what was at the time a mighty steed. But over the decades, that mighty steed has morphed into a dilapidated donkey as the significance of Occupied Palestine in the strategic thinking of the Outlaw US Empire has also diminished as global reality has changed its goals.
During TrumpCo, The Outlaw US Empire has become more closely aligned with the Arab Gulf States, and any war it instigates with Iran will destroy those relations along with those Gulf states's governments. The big change few have noted is making war on Iran is an immediate strategic defeat for the Empire regardless the damage done to Iran. As pointed out in many discussions here, Iran's army could quickly take over the lands of the ruined Gulf states thus liberating their populations. Iran wouldn't need to keep occupation troops stationed in any of those nations. Not only would the Empire lose its bases it would lose its dictatorial allies, maybe even Occupied Palestine itself. It's almost as if Nuttyahoo was asking Trump to shoot him in the head.
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality." --Dickhead
The empire wants war with Iran, but whoever is in office in the US when that war starts will go down in history as a criminal and a monster. Who would the imperial elites rather have saddled with that legacy, Harris/Dead Guy whom they have been trying to sell to the American public and the world as saviors of decency or the Great Orange Ogre that they have spent the last four years hyperventilating over?
They will start the war while Trump is still in office. This discussion in the Mockingbird mass media about Trump having to be talked down from launching an attack is either gross stupidity on Trump's part or it is nonsense intended to prepare the population to believe that Trump really is responsible when the attack is launched. If Trump has any wisdom he will immediately disavow any rumors of an American attack on Iran.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 25 2020 18:46 utc | 4
^1000Careerist lackeys serving the elites control the American press.
Ever pushing for war and inequality, covering up the oligarchy's crimes...
They are in reality shameless disinformers.
No wonder the world is in such terrible disarray.
"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
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b
I agree, especially since amongst Republican voters he is the leading candidate to be the 2024 Republican nominee
Poll: Majority of Republicans would support Trump in 2024
He has too much to lose and nothing to gain by striking Iran.
Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2020 18:33 utc | 1