Andrei Martyanov’s assessment of the Ukraine situation

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Andrei Martyanov

Evidently, There Was a "Slaughter"...

 ... of VSU air-assets during their latest (disastrous) attempt at Snake Island. As Russian MoD reports:

«Замыслом операции киевского режима предусматривалось нанесение массированных воздушных и артиллерийских ударов по острову Змеиный с последующей высадкой десанта и его захвата. В воздушном налете было задействовано более 15 украинских беспилотных летательных аппаратов в ударном и разведывательном исполнении, наведение которых осуществлялось двумя беспилотными летательными аппаратами «Байрактар ТБ-2», – говорится в официальном Telegram-канале Минобороны.«Кроме того, в воздушном пространстве в районе острова Змеиный российскими средствами был зафиксирован на больших высотах стратегический разведывательный беспилотный летательный аппарата ВВС США «Глобал Хок» RQ-4.

Противовоздушное прикрытие украинских БПЛА обеспечивалось зенитными ракетными системами «С-300» с боевых позиций в районе Тузлы и Очакова.Ракетные и артиллерийские удары по острову Змеиный наносились украинскими баллистическими ракетами «Точка-У», реактивными системами залпового огня «Ураган» и 155-мм гаубицами М-777 с огневых позиций западнее Одессы и на острове Кубанский», – сообщил Конашенков.«Российскими средствами ПВО: зенитным ракетно-пушечным комплексом «Панцирь» и зенитным ракетным комплексом «Тор» все средства поражения противника, выпущенные по острову Змеиный, были уничтожены.Сбиты в воздухе: 13 беспилотных летательных аппаратов, четыре ракеты «Точка-У» и 21 реактивный снаряд системы залпового огня «Ураган». Ни одно из украинских огневых средств не достигло цели на острове Змеиный. 

Translation: “The plan of the operation of the Kyiv regime provided for the infliction of massive air and artillery strikes on Zmeiny Island, followed by a landing and its capture. More than 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in strike and reconnaissance versions were involved in the air raid, which were guided by two Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicles. “In addition, in the airspace in the area of ​​​​Snake Island, Russian means detected a strategic reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle of the US Air Force Global Hawk RQ-4 at high altitudes. Air defense cover for Ukrainian UAVs was provided by S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems from combat positions in the Tuzla and Ochakov areas. Rocket and artillery strikes on Zmeiny Island were carried out by Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles, Uragan multiple launch rocket systems and M-777 155-mm howitzers from firing positions west of Odessa and on Kubansky Island,” Konashenkov said. “Russian air defense systems: the Pantsir anti-aircraft missile and gun system and the Tor anti-aircraft missile system destroyed all enemy weapons fired at Zmeiny Island. Shot down in the air: 13 unmanned aerial vehicles, four Tochka-U missiles and 21 Uragan multiple rocket launchers. None of the Ukrainian munitions reached the target on Zmeiny Island.

This explains frustration and attack on... civilian oil rigs in the Black Sea after that. Typical. Well, now some videos of those M-777 being blown to smithereens are also provided by MoD (in Russian)

Surprise attack of 16 units of American M777 howitzers destroyed by Russia

Jun 19, 2022

Half of the M777 artillery pieces in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed by a massive air raid of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Combat aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces staged a surprise raid on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and destroyed at least 16 M777 artillery pieces, transferred to the Ukrainian military from the United States a few days ago. 

As I am on record for years, neither Pentagon nor, let alone, NATO lapdogs can provide any serious operational advice to VSU due to the fact that they never fought anything like this. The United States altogether has no experience of fighting under the fire impact from the enemy to the operational depth. In fact, and I am also on record, all this Iraqi and Afghanistan experience is useless for the modern combined arms warfare. Per Global Hawk and, now traditional, ISR support by the US of VSU's disastrous attempts at fighting war of the 21st century--any US air asset (from strategic bombers to F-35, to UAVs) in the Black Sea theater is an easy target and, in case, God forbids, real war wouldn't be flying there. Not to speak of slow and "stealthy" Global Hawks one of which was an easy target for Iranian Air Defense in 2019.   

It is clear that Pentagon and NATO are trying to gain some kind of insight into the operations in Ukraine, including by being directly involved into operational planning for VSU, but the truth is--NATO militaries, led by the US, are not configured for protracted and extremely painful and brutal combined arms operations against the opposition which is not only "peer" (a condescending BS invented in Pentagon) but is fully capable to disrupt NATO's C4ISR and has air defense which is simply the best and most advanced in the world. The situation with the Snake Island and VSU's utter failure there exposed the complete obsolescence of Western fighting doctrines which are designed for one thing only--intimidation and bombing with impunity of the third world defenseless nations. And that is the main lesson of yet another Ukie failure.

Monday, June 20, 2022

The Rooks Flew In.

Not the famous Savrasov's 1871 The Rooks Flew In (original Russian title, Грачи Прилетели, not Anglicized The Rooks Have Returned) painting. 

Nor Nikolai Anisimov's, piercing in its genius poetry, a song about Rooks (Su-25s) combat work in Chechnya. This phrase alone: "Bernoulli's equations carry The Rook in the skies", is something that only those who went through it could write. No, these are SU-25SMs now in Ukraine. Excellent show of combat work.

One can clearly see the terrain which is highly conducive for air-defense ambushes, including with still not 100% annihilated Ukrainian Buk-M1s, Osas and even remaining S-300s, albeit most of those are being hidden or deployed around key military objects in 404 and in Kiev. I am not talking about Stingers which performed dismally and are absolutely obsolete on the modern battlefield, and the new Russian ECM employed on all combat aircraft of RuAF reduced them to merely a PR.   

Meanwhile, Dmitry Peskov didn't mince words in his interview with NBC today and was very blunt:

Peskov: Americans Captured In Ukraine ‘Committed Crimes’ Against Russian Forces

Americans are not accustomed to having their soldiers treated as war criminals, especially by a peer power capable of making good on its threats. In an exclusive interview with Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, NBC News’ Keir Simmons pressed the Russian official on the two American veterans who were captured by Russian forces while fighting alongside Ukraine’s military. Peskov said they should be “held responsible for the crimes they have committed,” adding that they are not protected by the Geneva Convention as prisoners of war.  

This crisis (meaning Russia-West) will be long and "We will never trust West (again)". I guess it is very clear and requires no additional elaboration.

More Clarification On "Realism", Plus Larry (Johnson) Is Being Sarcastic.

In continuation of this whole discussion on American "realism", my suggestion for many to go here, is the preview of my second book on Amazon, and read attentively in the available part of the first chapter WHY so much discussion about Mearsheimer and American "realists". I make on those pages a case about "liberal" view of history and geopolitics as not valid. 

In related news, Larry went fully sarcastic and acerbic yesterday, reacting to the stream of statements by officials of the mighty British Empire on how they are going to defeat Russia.

Dear President Putin:

I write with the greatest of respect and sorrow to inform you that your gamble in Ukraine has failed and you have lost a strategic battle. How do I know? Well, UK Admiral Tony Radakin, the head of the UK’s Armed Services says so. Here is what he said:

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia was suffering heavy losses, running out of troops and advanced missiles and would never be able to take over all of Ukraine. “This is a dreadful mistake by Russia. Russia will never take control of Ukraine,” Tony Radakin told PA Media in an interview published on Friday. The country’s highest-ranking military officer said the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, had lost 25% of Russia’s land power for only “tiny” gains and it would emerge a “more diminished power” while strengthening Nato. . . .“The Russian machine is grinding away, and it’s gaining a couple of – two, three, five – kilometres every day,” the admiral said. “And Russia has vulnerabilities because it’s running out of people, it’s running out of hi-tech missiles. “President Putin has used about 25% of his army’s power to gain a tiny amount of territory and 50,000 people either dead or injured. Russia is failing.”

If Admiral Tony says it is true you can take it to the bank. I mean, who can deny the British victory at Dunkirk and their smashing successes in quelling the natives in India, Iraq and Afghanistan. Not to be presumptive Mr. Putin, but when Russia comes to grip with the mighty military prowess of the United Kingdom, I can understand why you will quiver in your snow boots.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog, it is excellent. But that does bring forth the question of mental adequacy of the British military top brass, since, obviously, they are not only going through the stages of Kubler-Ross, but, evidently, do not know basic operational facts and truisms about losses. In other words, they fully confirm my assertion that they are good only for fighting in the PR area, but then again, it is MI6's field, killing innocent people and cats for the sake of provocations.

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.



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