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On Going Seriously Boom


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Fred Reed
CROSSPOSTED WITH THE SAKER BLOG

Dateline:

Pleasurable excitement ripples through the usual boredom of Washington, and the resident curiosities enjoy exquisite frissons, over the possibility of nuclear war over the Ukraine. Some official of the EU, or maybe it was the mediocrity in the White House with the truculence problem, but anyway, one of the geniuses ruling the planet’s fate, has said that if Russia used nukes, the Russian army would be destroyed, grrr, bowwow, woof. Exactly how it would be destroyed, the sayer didn’t say. Anyway, the threats and counter threats swirl around the idea that a nuke war between Russia and the West might occur. Maybe, with tactical nukes in the Ukraine, about which nobody gives a rat’s nether region. The world is full of damned fools.

But: The general staffs of both Russia and China are, whatever else you may think of them, sane. They know of America’s massive nuclear forces. They are not going to launch an atomic war. Sane behavior cannot be relied on with Washington’s second-rate lawyers, but the generals in the Pentagon are not crazy. They like hobbyist wars and big budgets, but if Biden ordered a nuclear strike, they would be likely to suddenly remember that Congress has to declare war and, seeing that their radar screens were empty of incoming missiles, say, “Mr. President, we are not authorized to do that.” And recommend a committee.

What would such a war be like? Let’s guess.

America is fragile. We don’t notice because it works smoothly and because when a local catastrophe occurs—earthquake, hurricane, tornado—the rest of the country steps in to remedy things. The country can handle normal and regional catastrophes. But nuclear war is neither normal nor regional. Very few warheads would serve to wreck the United States beyond recovery for decades. This should be clear to anyone who actually thinks about it.

Defense is impossible. Missile defenses are meaningless except as money funnels to the arms industry. This is not the place to go into decoys, hypersonics, Poseidon, maneuvering glide vehicles, bastion stationing, MIRV, just plain boring old cruise missiles, and so on. Coastal cities are particularly easy targets, being vulnerable to submarine-launched sea-skimming missiles. Washington, New York, Boston, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle for starters— all gone.

A modern country is a system of systems of systems, interdependent and interconnected—water, electricity, manufacturing, energy, telecommunications, transportation, pipelines, and complex supply chains.  These are interconnected, interdependent, and rely on large numbers of trained people showing up for work. Modern warheads are not the popgun squibs of Hiroshima. Talking of repair any time soon after the nuclear bombing of a conurbation is foolish because the city would have many hundreds of thousand of dead, housing destroyed, massive fires, horrendously burned people with no hope of medical care, and in general, populations too focused on staying alive to worry about abstractions like supply chains.

The author paints a picture that even idiotized populations can use to understand the danger hanging over all of us. And all of it, let's make that clear, is criminally unnecessary.

The elimination of transportation might cause more death than the bombs. Cities, suburbs, and towns cannot feed themselves. They rely on a constant, heavy influx of food grown in remote regions. This food is shipped by rail or truck to distribution centers, as for example Chicago, whence it is transshipped to cities like New York. Heavy megatonnage on Chicago would disrupt rail lines and trucking firms. Trains and trucks need gasoline and diesel which come from somewhere, presumably in pipelines. These, broken by the blast, burning furiously, would take time to repair. Time is what cities would not have.

What would happen in, say, New York City even if, improbably, it were not bombed? Here we will ignore the likelihood of sheer, boiling panic and resultant chaos on learning that much of the country had been flattened. In the first few days there would be panic buying with shelves at supermarkets being emptied. Hunger would soon become serious. By day four, people would be hunting each other with knives to get their food. By the end of the second week, people would be eating each other. Literally. This happens in famines.


Most things in America rely on electricity. This comes from generating plants that burn stuff, usually natural gas or coal. These arrive on trains, which would not be running, or in trucks, not likely to be running. They depend on oil fields, refineries, and pipelines unlikely to function. All of the foregoing depend on employees continuing to go to work instead of trying to save their families. So—no electricity in New York, which goes dark.

This means no telephones, no internet, no lighting, and no elevators. How would this work out in a city of high rises? Most people would be nearly incommunicado in a lightless city. Huge traffic jams would form as people with cars tried to leave—to go where?—as long as gasoline in the tank lasted.

Where does water come from in New York? I don’t know, but it doesn’t flow spontaneously to the thirtieth floor. It needs to be pumped, which involves electricity, from wherever it comes from to wherever it has to go. No electricity, no pump. No pump, no water. And no flushing of toilets. River water could be drunk, of course. Think of the crowds.

In all likelihood, civil society would collapse by the end of the fourth day. The more virile ethnics would surge from the ghettos with guns and clubs to feed. Police would have disappeared or be either looking after their families or themselves looting. Civilization is a thin veneer. The streets and subways are not safe even without a nuclear war. The majority would be unarmed and unable to defend themselves. People who had never touched a gun would suddenly understand the appeal. If you think this would not happen, give my best to Tinker Belle.

Thus it would not be necessary to bomb a city to destroy it, only to cut it off from transport hubs for a couple of weeks. An attacker would of course destroy many cities in addition to the necessary infrastructure. Those who plan nuclear wars may be psychopaths, or just insular geeks fiddling with bloodless abstractions, but they are not fools. They have carefully calculated how to most seriously damage a target country. In no more than a couple of months, perhaps two hundred million people would starve to death. Do you think this fantastic? Tell me why it is fantastic.

Parenthetically, in my days of walking the E-ring in the Pentagon, I read manuals on how to keep soldiers fighting after they had received lethal doses of radiation. They don’t die immediately and, depending on dosage, might be administered stimulants to keep them on their feet, or so the manuals said. These manuals also discussed whether these walking dead should be told that they were about to die. The authors used the evocative phrase “terrain alteration” to describe landscapes with all the trees lying on their sides, and we have all heard of “overkill.” After a nuclear war, millions would slowly die of radiation—read up on Nagasaki and Hiroshima—and burned corpses would rot in the streets, too numerous for burial by survivors with other things on their minds.

How would the next season’s crops be planted? Answer: they wouldn’t be. Where would fertilizer come from? Parts for tractors, trucks, harvesters? Making these requires functioning factories which require electricity, raw materials, and workers. If the attacker chose to hit agricultural lands with radiation-dirty cobalt bombs, these regions would be lethal for years. Nuclear planners think about these things.

Among “defense intellectuals,” there is, or was when I covered such things, insane talk of how America could “absorb” a Russian first strike and have enough missiles in reserve to destroy Russia. These people should be locked in sealed boxes and kept in abandoned coal mines.

Note also that Biden, Blinken, and Bolton, bibbety bobbety boo, and their families, live in DC, the priority target. While the rats are aboard the ship, they won’t sink it. If they are discovered boarding a Greyhound out of Washington at three a.m., dressed as washerwomen, it will be time to worry.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Fred Reed real oneFred Reed, who has referred to Oprah Winfrey as looking "like five hundred pounds of bear liver in a plastic bag," takes a jaundiced and highly irreverent view of all things sacred-journalism, marriage, affirmative action, federal scams, governmental uselessness, women, men, fellow reporters, and popular culture. On the other hand, he has a kind word for drunks, bar girls, and children. Neither a liberal nor a conservative-he describes these as "twin halves of the national lobotomy"-he is just Fred. He figures it is enough. Anything more would be multiple-personality disorder. Fred has spent many years doing things your mother wouldn't want you to do, such as living in alleys in Taipei, Bangkok, and Saigon, with some of the strangest people ever to crawl this weary earth. Once a war correspondent in Viet Nam and Cambodia, then for years a police reporter in places the media don't admit exist, he spent most of a decade writing a syndicated column on matters military.


Selected Comments from Original Thread

 

There is a difference between passivity and assessment, though I understand your angst.

I worked for many years on various government committees, etc, and eventually became aware of the hidden movements that control political decisions. If you touch on these power circles, even a passing mention of taboo subjects will see you ostracized. If you don’t know what I mean, try talking sense with some wokies (ie the woke crowd) for a somewhat analogous situation.

People talk about the Deep State, but it is so much deeper than you can imagine with secret societies, vows of silence, etc. Machiavelli was a piker by modern standards.

My efforts lately are directed towards individuals rather than trying to change the system. Partly because I am out of political world. I find it appalling that people believe either a) that nuclear war will never happen, or b) that if it does, no one will survive.

Better to have at least some moderate knowledge of how the world works. For example, how many people know that nuclear fallout radiation decays to 10% in 2 hours, and 1% in two days? And then to 0.1% in two weeks. That simple knowledge can easily save your life.


          • @perspective:
            ” I find it appalling that people believe either a) that nuclear war will never happen, or b) that if it does, no one will survive”

            I find you even more appalling, saying that
            a) nuclear war will definitely happen and that
            b) if it does, plenty of people will survive.
            Nobody knows how things will unfold, but we know for damned sure that if global nuclear war happens it will not be worth surviving (unless you, ‘Perspective’, believe you can live well in you luxury bunker, to later emerge after radioactivity has decayed).

            Nuclear war will be horrific beyond anybody’s worst imagination, it will be the end of civilisation and huge numbers of initial survivors, with the flesh falling off them, will envy the dead. Later survivors will face starvation and also envy the dead.
            It is far better, indeed IMPERATIVE to assume that nuclear war is NOT an inevitability (it is being provoked by people hence can be prevented by people) and that it CAN cause human extinction (you cannot argue that it cannot), so that we are motivated to prevent it. There is only one option, prevention.

            Perspective, you seem to be either
            a) intimidated by fear of the deep state into passivity, which is fine. Most people are that, or simply disinterested. But why try to infect your cowardice and passivity on others, unless you are
            b) a psychopathic instrument of the deep state trying to convince others to be cowardly and passive, in which case you need to be locked up and the key thrown away. You are appalling.

            Are you a tool of the deep state “elite” aiming for a massive population cull? What else could explain your appalling attitudes?


“Among “defense intellectuals,” there is, or was when I covered such things, insane talk of how America could “absorb” a Russian first strike and have enough missiles in reserve to destroy Russia.”
There are many preppers that think they’ll survive as characters in a mel gibson movie, when in reality, rural preppers will be the first targets. 82% of US population lives in cities. Thats about 280 million headed out to the rural areas after cities collapse. There will be no survivors, and an algamation of chinese/north korean/middle eastern armies will come in and start removing what natural resources not radiated, ie coal mines in east coast mtns, oil wells in dakotas/texas, etc, lumber, and so on.


Everyone would like to take over US, not destroying it like Germany, US is the most resourceful nation on Earth. People may believe Alaska is what is valuable of US, but that is not true. There are a trillion mosquitos in Alaska.


– Thats about 280 million headed out to the rural areas
With the car full bed madrasses and cooking gears? It is not that easy to survive off-grid. One need a ton of gears and tools and knowledge about how to use it


you missed my point. Most of the rural areas throughout the US, are private property and already off limits to the 280 million starving US citizens fleeing the defunct cities. Do you think the farmers are going to allow their farms to be over run and destroyed? Outside of state and federal parks, which will be quickly over run, the only thing that waits urban people fleeing to rural areas in search of food/shelter will be more conflict, which is why there will be no survivors. jew social programming has seen to this.


You are just trying to rationalize your own lack of preparation as a model for other

– There will be no survivors

I have not heard about that theory before

– There are many preppers that think they’ll survive as …

Here you talk about (Alex Jones?) preppers as being naive. Next you will tell us Alex Jones has consistently missed out …


 

@appdom2
Your comment makes sense until you go racist with your fantastical claim that “an algamation of chinese/north korean/middle eastern armies will come in.” First, how would they get here in a nuclear-blown world? Second, why would they go to such trouble when they have resources of their own close to hand? Third, why not Mexicans, rural Blacks, Native Americans ‘coming in’. I mean if your fear of the “Other” is so intense, look close to home.


 

@appdom2
Your comment makes sense until you go racist with your fantastical claim that “an algamation of chinese/north korean/middle eastern armies will come in.” First, how would they get here in a nuclear-blown world? Second, why would they go to such trouble when they have resources of their own close to hand? Third, why not Mexicans, rural Blacks, Native Americans ‘coming in’. I mean if your fear of the “Other” is so intense, look close to home.

Yeah, Appdom is displaying a core American value where he projects what America is actually doing around the world onto its Official Enemies.

America has invaded multiple nations to steal their resources like Iraq (oil) or Syria (oil and wheat) or Libya (oil)–or wishes to invade if it could like Russia (natural gas and other resources) or China (rare earth minerals).

This is not to mention how the Anglo American colonizers stole the entire continent (Turtle Island and Aztlan) from Native Indians or Mexicans and currently occupy it today.

The American ruling class is a class of paranoid genocidal sociopaths, who will likely be responsible for bringing on the Apocalypse–but their are only an organic reflection of Americans themselves, who share the same values.

Psychological projection is a defining pathology of America as a nation.


 

Looking more like a false flag tact nuke in Ukraine followed by an American first strike. Even the generals will go along with it because they won’t know about the false flag. This strange feeling we all have now is the one that occurs right before civilizations suddenly collapse.
We are learning to except our fate.


  • Empire has a first strike doctrine, it also believes that tactical nukes can be used in a conventional conflict. It being declared that a Russian victory in Ukraine threatens “the rule based order” will probably suffice to consider it.

    We also know that Empire has stated that a rival to hegemon will not be allowed to arise (exist ?).

    The critical question is if the decision makers understand that it has already happened, that the rival has supremacy in critical military areas and that MAD still applies ?


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Up to You.

^3000US citizens have no real political representation.

We don't live in a democracy. And our freedom is disappearing fast.

I don't want to be ruled by hypocrites, whores, and war criminals.

What about you? Time to push back against the corporate oligarchy.

And its multitude of minions and lackeys.


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