Ruling Class Finally Awakens to the Reality of America's Decline
Change is in the air.
I’ve written previously on the panic currently effervescing through the global elites, made viscerally apparent at conclaves like the Davos forum earlier this year. But in America particularly, a deep worry is now consciously gnawing the ruling class—they can see it, feel it: that the American Empire is on its last legs, close to collapse.
This month has seen a bevy of new think pieces from top American deep state figures or old-guard publications urging the changing of course, lest the country be swept away by the remorseless tide of history.
The first and most prominent of these making the rounds is that of former speechwriter and White House staffer to Obama, Ben Rhodes, entitled:
Rhodes remains among the political haute monde, having founded a think-tank alongside Jake Sullivan, which had many interlinkings with Soros’ Open Society organizations. That’s to say, Rhodes has his finger on the pulse of the ‘inner circles’ of the patriciate, which is underscored by the CFR’s journal offering tribune to his latest. And so it’s even more telling that he’s moved to sound the alarm against a country he feels is—as the cover art above obliges—stumbling head first into historic headwinds.
The article is actually quite long and detailed, so we have Arnaud Bertrand to summarize its finest points. The first bolded portion below gets to the heart of Rhodes’ startling argument—but read the rest of the bolded:
This is an interesting piece by brhodes, Obama's Former Deputy National Security Advisor
In an immense departure from US policy to date, he advocates that the US "abandons the mindset of American primacy" and "pivots away from the political considerations, maximalism, and Western-centric view that have caused [the Biden] administration to make some of the same mistakes as its predecessors".
He writes, and I find this a very powerful sentence, that "meeting the moment requires building a bridge to the future—not the past." As in not seek to regain a lost hegemony, but adapt to the "world as it is" which he calls "the world of post-American primacy".
To be sure, the piece still has strong relents of the liberal instincts to remake the world in America's image - a leopard cannot change its spots - but at least he acknowledges the reality that the world has changed and that the US should view itself as a power coexisting with others, not THE power that needs to dominate the rest of the world.Which is a first step...
Also, significantly, he points out the insanity of "framing the battle between democracy and autocracy as a confrontation with a handful of geopolitical adversaries" when the West's own democracies are in such sorry states today that they can hardly be called "democracies" anymore... He writes that instead of trying to constantly interfere in changing other countries' systems, "ultimately, the most important thing that America can do in the world is detoxify its own democracy".
The below encapsulates the core thesis, which is that America’s global primacy is over, and the only way for the country to stay afloat is to adapt to the new realities:
Yet even though a return to competent normalcy was in order, the Biden administration’s mindset of restoration has occasionally struggled against the currents of our disordered times. An updated conception of U.S. leadership—one tailored to a world that has moved on from American primacy and the eccentricities of American politics—is necessary to minimize enormous risks and pursue new opportunities.
This is the theme which recurs again and again throughout the new zeitgeist taking over political discourse in the stricken Beltway—panicking neocons are exhorting each other: we’re in a fight for our lives, if we don’t accept the new realities, we’ll drown!
Publications like Foreign Affairs are where the elite address not us, but each other, in the long-standing tradition of euphemism as secret-coded language of their ‘interior world’ of the deep state and outlying political class. Here Mr. Rhodes adeptly navigates the nuances of this privileged cant when he declares that the Rules Based Order has fallen:
But lodged in the creases of his appeal are the keys to the game: why is the Order dead? He answers: because countries previously vassalized by strict obedience to the Hegemon are now, for once, acting independently and making—quelle surprise!—sovereign decisions. And thus is translated the secret message of the inter-elite argot: the ‘Rules Based Order’ was nothing more than a veil for line-toeing slavery, and it’s now finished forever.
He spells it out even more clearly in a fittingly titled section toward the end:
Finally, in the end comes his reasonable surmise:
None of this will be easy, and success is not preordained, since unreliable adversaries also have agency. But given the stakes, it is worth exploring how a world of competing superpower blocs could be knitted into coexistence and negotiation on issues that cannot be dealt with in isolation.
Did you hear that? That’s the ghostly death knell of the U.S. establishment tolling in the night. For once, without uttering its repelling name, they have in essence invoked multipolarity as the sole workable solution going forward. They acknowledge America’s power has reached its natural end, its final logical conclusion, and only working together with other superpowers remains a viable policy moving forward.
The rest of this essay is unfortunately behind a paywall we can't afford.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Simplicius (his nom de guerre) is apparently a Russian or slavonic political thinker. In his columns he offers in depth geopolitical and conflict analysis, with a dash of the sardonic. You can support him by pledging here or tipping him at: http://www.buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius
Lili News 029
In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.
Clarity After Iran Strike, as Israel Tries to Pivot to Nuclear Arc
A cascade of Iranian missiles get through the fabled "Iron Dome", fortified with Western anti-missile shields.
Two days out from Iran’s seminal strike on Israel and some things are being clarified.
All the early claims of having shot everything down were slowly retracted, with more realistic headlines taking their place as testament to the confusion behind the scenes.
Videos like this one are hard to deny—watch the end to see major explosions at the site of whatever was hit:
We’ve finally got some BDAs of the hits, though they do present uncertainty as to Iran’s true objectives.
Here’s a news report confirming one of the missiles landed outside the Mossad HQ:
But was it a miss, or a deliberate “message” sent?
There are two camps now: one claiming Iran cannot hit anything, the other that Iran deliberately avoided causing too much damage. There is some evidence for both.
Trump just released an interview where he confirmed—if he can be trusted—that Iran had previously told him in advance they would hit US assets during his term, but intentionally not cause any damage merely as a show of force—listen carefully:
This is quite normal in international relations.
But listen specifically to the last part of the video where Trump himself admits the missiles are “very accurate” but everyone in the media was shocked they missed—why would Iran’s “accurate missiles” miss an easy, fat target like the US base in question?
This gives us insight into Iran’s SOP, and we can thereby infer that Iran may have treated the present Israeli strike in a similar fashion. A hit near the Mossad HQ could merely be a message.
Now we have satellite BDAs of Nevatim base.
One hangar was hit which, in a previous satellite photo, had the tail of what looks like a fighter craft sticking out of it:
However, other hits appeared all over the place.
The area of the base hit was the “transport, tanker, surveillance, and recon” area, reportedly housing the 122nd Nachshon Squadron (EW/signals), not the fighter jet area where the famed F-35s are usually housed.
The area of the struck hangar is at the southeast portion of the image below:
Experts later identified 32 strike points from a wider 3m satellite view:
However, we do not seem to have satellite photos for the other sections in detail yet, nor for the other air bases potentially struck, the Hatzerim and Tel Nof airbases.
What’s most interesting is there was a brief controversy yesterday surrounding some jagged digital clouds apparently being ‘painted’ over Israeli bases, blocking the ability to assess damage. This was dismissed by experts as just ‘clouds’—though strangely this rarely seems to happen in Ukraine—but most strange of all was that both penetrated bases apparently had this cloudy ‘luck’:
As reminder, the US apparently restricts satellite images of Israel, as previously confirmed by NPR—so it’s very difficult to get accurate post-mortem shots:
Personally, I have a theory as to why there appear some accurate hits with others that seem merely ‘random’. From the characteristics of the missiles we saw, there appeared to be many different kinds of missiles fired. For instance, some clearly came down extremely fast, at near hypersonic speeds, as I highlighted last time, while many others appear to come down at fairly middling speeds.
It’s likely that what Iran is doing, is saturating the airspace with a bunch of their lower tier older missiles, ones which do not have much accuracy and are cheap in cost, while there are a lesser number of the more advanced hypersonic ones with better guidance capabilities which are used to ride that saturation “cloud” to the target. Thus, the type of BDA result visible would be a bunch of random hits in a wide dispersion field with a few accurate ones amongst them, courtesy of the main weapon—which could be the Emad or Fattah-2, etc.
As to the question, brought up by many last time, whether Iran truly notified everyone in advance of the strikes, here is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:
So, according to him, Iran warned the US after it had launched the missiles.
The truth is, we know for a fact that US and Israel had already expected the strikes as articles literally came out several hours prior, stating that Iran may be gearing up for strikes. This would likely have been known by US/Israel’s satellite surveillance seeing Iran setup the necessary equipment in its base outside of Shiraz—images I have seen.
Thus, knowing an attack was imminent, even if Araghchi’s words are true, Israel and the US would have about 10-15 minutes to make necessary last minute movements, like scrambling F-35s to the sky, etc., as that’s how long the missiles would take to reach Israel. In short, we can confidently say that Israel had at least a decent amount of advance warning. This is a way for Iran to diplomatically save face by being able to say they did not really give anyone warning, since it technically came after the launch, but it was given in practice. Another way this is done is by Iran overtly using known launch sites. If Iran wanted to truly carry out a devastating surprise attack, it would probably preposition launchers in remote areas that US satellites do not have overwatch on. Thus, this is still all part of the theater I spoke of last time, the subtle dance between both sides.
The other interesting thing was that certain contradictions within Iranian ruling elite were brought to the fore by the latest strikes. NY Times initially reported that new president Masoud Pezeshkian was not even informed of the decision to strike:
While in another article they claimed it was the IRGC command itself that pleaded with the Supreme Leader to strike, their pressure ultimately winning out:
A senior aide to Mr. Pezeshkian said in a telephone interview before the missile attack that whatever the president’s private reservations about war with Israel, he would publicly support any decision Mr. Khamenei made — as he did on Tuesday.
Iran’s shift in strategy, officials said, stemmed from a reckoning among its leaders, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
They decided that Iran had miscalculated by not responding to the killing of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in July, and the more recent killing of the top Iranian commander, Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan.
—
Bonus video of IRGC preparing their Operation True Promise 2, with what looks to me like Emad missiles visible:
Israel has claimed it would initiate a major counter-response before suddenly walking back its threats out of fear:
'Israel is considering striking Iranian assets in Yemen or Syria, instead of striking Iran directly', says a U.S. Official – Politico
Lebanon is not on the list, as it seems.
PS: Today's Isreali Strike on apparent buildings in Beirut, targeting a female Hezbollah MP, with appr. 100 dead civilians was supposedly conducted via Israel's sea-born fleet .... nobody knows why NO air-born F-35 or F-15 or F-16 have been used.
Last night, Iranian assets were allegedly struck in Jableh outside Khmeimim—it’s uncertain if that’s meant to be the ‘response’, or one of them. Fake news reports claimed Israel had struck Russia’s Khmeimim base itself, but geolocations showed that to not be the case.
However, other sources continue to imply that behind the scenes Israel and the US are conspiring for something bigger:
You see, it’s a little confusing because on the surface MSM is painting the Biden administration as being totally spurned by outlaw Israel:
But while that’s true on the surface, other factions inside the deep state appear to be working in close coordination with Israel on all ongoing plans and actions:
Everyone knows there are competing factions within the US government, which is why the State Department had witnessed a surge of resignations this year over the Biden team’s support of Israel. However, Brian Berletic outlined the other likely explanation for these seemingly incoherent discrepancies. On one hand, Biden reiterated he would not support Israeli strikes, which need to be “proportional”, he says:
But on the other, Berletic quotes the 2009 Brookings paper entitled "Which Path to Persia?", which outlines a strategy of “maintaining plausible deniability while, in fact, attacking Iran including its nuclear sites.”
In essence, it’s the same old CIA and intelligence agency tactic.
Now Trump has joined in blaming Iran even for his own close encounters. In this case he’s clearly acting as ventriloquist puppet, with ‘someone’ speaking through his mouth in order to again divert America’s military onto a false target, just like in the wake of 9/11:
In fact, just today investigative journalist Lee Smith unleashed a report describing how the FBI set up the fake Iranian story to divert attention away from the true source behind Trump’s would-be assassins.
It’s obvious that a pro-Zionist faction of the deep state in the US government is working in tandem with Mossad to set Iran up as the fall guy one way or another. Whether they get the Democrats to attack Iran, or they take out Trump and blame it on Iran in order to whip up a military campaign of performative vengeance.
All across social and regime media voices are now calling to cripple Iran’s nuclear program, to the delight of Israel. It’s gotten so perverse that even neocons from the Iraq War are rehashing their same old spiel to an ignorant new generation:
In 2003, Bret Stephens lied that "Saddam may unveil, to an astonished world, the Arab world’s first nuclear bomb." Today, he says "Iran was within a week or two of being able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb." Twenty years on, it's the same script.
It quotes the now widespread MSM marching banner that Iran is only a fortnight away from The Bomb:
Indeed, now is an ideal opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. The country’s breakout time to a bomb is down to one to two weeks. There is no new nuclear deal in the cards. Hamas and Hezbollah are in no position to retaliate. And the Islamic Republic just asked for it. In fact, this may be the last best chance to keep Tehran from the bomb.
What’s obvious is that Israel is pushing all its neocon puppets to make the most out of its ongoing disastrous maelstrom of unprovoked attacks on neighboring countries. Israel will settle for any kind of ‘victory’, which can be defined as whatever buys it civilizational time against its enemies. Taking out Iran’s nuclear program would be ‘worth’ the price of slaughter and their likely soon-to-fail Lebanese campaign.
Well, we can certainly see why Israel would be paranoid—after the latest strikes it’s clear that the combined West’s air defenses stand no chance against a ballistic missile saturation attack of the Iranian variety. The only real question is one of accuracy—but if Iran were to get a nuclear weapon, accuracy wouldn’t much matter. At that point, Israel would be held at the long point of an existential gun for all time.
Israel Lebanon map (CNN screenshot)
As for that new Lebanese campaign, ISW and other sources claim the IDF has made marginal advances into southern Lebanon in a pincer-like motion from Upper Galilee and the northeastern Galilee Panhandle region:
However there have already been reports of big losses for the IDF in ambushes.
It’s not looking good so far, with photos claiming to show knocked out Merkavas and Hezbollah’s claims that dozens of IDF have already been eliminated with hardly any territory captured. At this pace, Israel will understandably need to ‘divert’ again to a big US-led strike campaign against Iran to paste over and memory-hole what may turn out to be another huge failure in Lebanon.
As a last pertinent update, on the heels of Iran’s strikes, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with Iran’s president in Doha, Qatar in a symbolic opening of a new chapter of rapprochement:
Something tells me this isn’t the “new Middle East” Netanyahu wants: Just a day after Iran’s missile attack, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister meets with Iran’s president, declaring that Saudi Arabia wants to “permanently close the chapter on our differences.”
On the occasion, Arnaud Bertrand writes:
I found the exact quotes (https://english.news.cn/20241003/9ed1ef8a2572491abca18736bce8f761/c.html…): on top of Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister telling Iran’s president that he wanted to "permanently close the chapter on our differences", he also called Iran's strikes on Israel "retaliatory attacks" (meaning they were justified) and said Saudi Arabia "trusted Iran's wisdom and discernment in managing the situation and contributing to the restoration of calm and peace in the region".
Underscoring the historic meeting, the foreign minister wrote an OpEd for FT, highlighting Saudi Arabia’s commitment to establishing an independent Palestinian state, with its capital in East Jerusalem, and no diplomatic relations with Israel until such time:
Iran unleashed their ‘Operation True Promise 2’ on Israel, sending hundreds of ballistic missiles which passed unopposed through Israel’s porous air defenses.
One video showcasing the speed of an incoming Iranian—allegedly hypersonic—missile:
Watch the above videos of hundreds of missiles hitting Israel, then read this deluded tweet by a Netanyahu aide, who with a straight face declared that most missiles were intercepted:
Video from the Iranian situation room when the order was given to fire an alleged 200 missiles:
The moment when IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Major General Hossein Salami, orders Iran's missile strike on Israel from Khatam-al Anbiya Central HQ.
One must recall, however, what I said about gerontocracies.
The biggest question that remains is whether the missiles have inflicted any real damage, or if they were merely scattershot ‘psychological’ actions.
On one hand, we have videos like the following which show missiles hitting random empty fields:
On the other hand, we have eyewitness accounts and geolocations that appear to show the areas of sensitive targets being hit.
This Twitter thread has a bunch of them, including areas hit near Mossad headquarters, Ort Tel Nof airbase, etc.
These videos in particular claim to be from just outside Nevatim airbase which houses much of Israel’s F-35 fleet:
In one of the Videos, it is filmed from the side of the city of Ararat an-Nakab, the operator films the Nevatim Air Base.
Show coordinates: 31.162038217254675, 35.01097230545869
It is currently impossible to find out whether the Air Base was damaged or destroyed, but the approximate range of the targets of Iranian Missiles is quite clear: Air Bases.
Iranian sources allegedly announced that “over 20 F-35s were destroyed” but of course such statements are usually hyperbolic and not reflective of reality—verification is needed.
In truth, Iran openly admitted notifying the US—and thereby Israel—of the strikes in advance, which gave Israel forewarning to take all their F-35s to the sky. This is standard procedure for high value assets like that before any strike, regularly carried out by both Ukraine and Russia in the SMO.
There are allegedly reports that Israel did in fact take its F-35 fleet to the skies as evidenced by a fleet of refueling tankers that were airborne, which suggests the F-35s were kept aloft throughout the duration of the attack:
So, we don’t yet know if any real damage was done, but the one take away that we’re again able to make is that Iran is at least capable of penetrating all Western air defense nets. That is because the US openly announced their attempt to interdict the strikes as much as possible, in futility—as reported by the official US Naval Institute:
USS Bulkely (DDG-84) and USS Cole (DDG-67) fired a dozen interceptors as part of the U.S. response to Iranian missiles launched at Israel, the Pentagon announced Tuesday.
Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles at targets in Israel, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters on Tuesday. He did not elaborate on what type of interceptors the two destroyers used. No ground-based interceptors were used.
They claim no ground based interceptors were used, though Iran begged to differ.
Iran of course again claimed they hadn’t used their best stuff yet:
Iran's Minister of Defense: 'None of our most advanced Missile capabilities were used in Operation True Promise-2'.
It doesn’t really matter in the end, because the attack as per usual is mostly theater, a kind of delicate dance between the warring parties, given that it was telegraphed in advance to notify the recipients for the purpose of de-escalating. Iranian president Pezeshkian afterwards released a statement in fact conveying that Iran had done its show of force and was now finished, insinuating to Israel that the two should accept the parley and de-escalate.
Israel, however, claimed they would respond to any attack large or small—but as per usual, Israel barks loudly while relying entirely on its American backing. Biden had recently signaled he was at the end of his rope with supporting Israeli attacks, which could mean Israel will be forced to back down from its threat of “major” response against Iran. As I said last time, Israel can only create “miraculous” victories on the backs of the entire Western world, which controls the commerce, communications, military, and every other sphere in the region, allowing Israel to wield full spectrum dominance. Without this backing, Israel would not be able to survive on its own, and would have long ceased to exist.
At the same time, Israel has finally invaded southern Lebanon, and what remains to be seen is the true nature of the current battlefield dynamic between Iran and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem released a statement that Hezbollah is ready to repel the Israeli assault:
WE'RE READY AND PREPARED TO CONFRONT ISRAEL GROUND OFFENSIVE, WE WILL BE VICTORIOUS, declares Hezbollah's Deputy SG Qassem in first live statement since assassination of party's chief Nasrallah and other leaders, stressing "Vast majority of Hezbollah's medium, long range weapons capabilities fully intact, despite Israeli lies".
Our fight will continue, everyone on battlefield is ready, and despite losing our leader and commanders, we will never forsake our duty in support of Gaza and in defense of Lebanon - he adds, reaffirming Washington's involved in massacring Lebanese civilians alongside Israel.
Qassem eulogizes "Popular, loved leader Nasrallah who dedicated his life to resistance and struggle" in 2nd video, stressing new SG will be chosen in near future, adding "We will fill leadership positions steadily. Be assured choices will be straightforward because they are clear".
Even Hezbollah’s greatest detractors and enemies admit that the death of Nasrallah is fairly meaningless vis-a-vis Hezbollah’s military integrity.
For instance, take Mohammad Ali Al-Husseini, “a Shiite cleric from Lebanon, who has known Nasrallah since their youth and for years has been one of the strongest critics of what Nasrallah and the Iranians have done to Lebanon.”
This cleric, said to now live in Saudi Arabia, is considered a traitor and would not otherwise be a reliable source on Hezbollah’s activities, except when it comes to the fact what he says rings true, and has been echoed by others in the past: that Hassan Nasrallah was not really the man in charge of Hezbollah’s military wing, at least in regards to making the final calls on military actions.
One must remember that in many Arabic cultures, things work a little differently, and responsibilities are delegated in ways that may appear confusing. For instance, in Iran the president is not really in charge of the military, which is the domain of the Ayatollah or Supreme Leader. Similarly, Hezbollah as an organization can be confusing because it is both a political party and movement, as well as military wing.
Al-Husseini below basically states that Nasrallah was more of the mouthpiece or spokesman—the public “face” and spiritual leader of the organization. But the people who actually make the hard military decisions in Hezbollah have differed over the years—they include figures like Imad Mughniyehand Fuad Shukr:
Hezbollah’s enemies can lie when it benefits them or makes Hezbollah look bad, but in this case Al-Husseini’s message appears to grudgingly defend Hezbollah’s resilience by admitting that the death of the figurehead does not affect the integrity of Hezbollah’s internal military decision-making power structure.
Here’s a handy map comparing Israel’s previous border incursions:
On the left where it says ‘Number’ it should be ‘Tyre’.
As a very brief summary, Israel has invaded Lebanon three major times since the ‘70s. The 1978 and 1982 invasions were essentially due to claimed attacks by Palestinian groups based in Lebanon. In 1978 Israel went up to the Litani River roughly at the Tyre latitude in southern Lebanon, and in 1982 they made it all the way to the north past the Awali River, besieging the capital of Beirut. Both times the UN eventually expelled them back south.
In 2006 they tried again to go all the way to the Litani—but this time they weren’t facing the PLO, but Hezbollah for the first time. One of the key differences is Hezbollah was armed with large amounts of ATGMs, which the PLO didn’t have, nullifying Israel’s armor and tank advantage. This time IDF could not even get past a few miles into southern Lebanon before giving up. The battle of Bint Jbeil was the main battle, only a couple kilometers from the border:
Both sides were able to claim ‘victory’ however because, in Israel’s case, they claimed to have destroyed a large amount of Hezbollah rockets and infrastructure in widespread strikes throughout the country.
I mention this important fact because I can see the current conflict potentially going the same way. You see, the Middle East has a way of being redundant, when you study its long history. Many of the conflicts replay over and over again in similar fashion, with similar ever-inconclusive results. For instance, much of the current Gaza invasion that Israel has been perpetrating since last October has the hallmarks of Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, and yet that one likewise ultimately accomplished nothing.
To understand geostrategy and geopolitics, one must understand that both side’s aims are to appear victorious, particularly in frozen-style conflicts where no truly decisive victories are possible for a variety of reasons. As such, each side strives to posture and affect some kind of big moral or political victory. In Netanyahu’s case, he would love to present some kind of victory to fortify his weakening rule.
Thus, there’s a strong chance that Israel could go in, do some damage as always, and amid mounting international pressure, withdraw under the guise of some “major victory” based on claims of disabled Hezbollah infrastructure, etc. Meanwhile, Hezbollah merely has to keep the IDF from advancing to some key point like the Litani River, and credible victory can be claimed for them, no matter the losses. Iran can then chime in and say their ‘overwhelming attack’ knocked out so much Israeli infrastructure as to have thwarted the whole campaign. It’s really a theater of sorts, with nothing of note being accomplished in the end.
Israel’s objectives make no logical sense and are not realistically achievable. That is, the chief stated objective of creating a buffer zone such that northern Israel can be secure from Hezbollah rocket attacks in order to facilitate the return of Israeli citizens. But any such settlement cannot possibly last because it would require Israel to devote inordinate forces to occupying all of southern Lebanon indefinitely. And if they were to withdraw, then Hezbollah can immediately resume acting as before. That’s not to mention the fact that Hezbollah has longer range capabilities such that pushing them back to the Litani would not accomplish much, as that’s a mere 23km from the border, a distance easily covered by around 50% of Hezbollah’s rocket types.
Thus, most likely Israel will take a few border villages, then if they cannot suck Iran into a giant regional war, backdoor emergency agreements will be struck by the US to prevent having to go to war against Iran. Israel would then save face by withdrawing under shallow claims of some obscure ‘victory’ with a list of phony Hezbollah assets destroyed, etc. At the same time, Israel will probably get a bunch of secret concessions from the historically weak US administration in exchange for saving the US from having to do heavy lifting against Iran.
I agree with this take:
That being said, we have now entered October, the fateful month of the great October Surprise and various awaiting black swans that threaten to spoil the election one way or another, under the elites’ guiding hand. So it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that the Israeli conflict can somehow spark into something much larger and uncontrollable to fulfill the needed script.
For what it’s worth, Jared Kushner wrote a long screed espousing his demented theory that Israel’s ‘destruction’ of Hezbollah is the gateway to effectively burying Iran. He cites Hezbollah as a ‘loaded gun pointed at Israel’ which was the sole bulwark protecting Iran’s nuclear facilities from being taken out. But after Israel finishes off Hezbollah, Kushner appears to imply Iran can be safely dealt with without fear of reprisal. It’s likely he’ll be eating his words in the not too distant future.
However, he appears to point to a concerted plan, echoed by Naftali Bennett in today’s blurb from NYTimes:
In fact, all the Mossad mouthpieces have come out in concert with this same spiel, confirming that this is in fact the orchestrated plan Israel is attempting to carry out:
As a last interesting note, around the time of Iran’s attack, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko was heading to Iran:
At this moment, a passenger plane Tu-214 of the Special Flight Squadron "Russia" with Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Chernyshenko is in Iranian airspace.
All the while, the full-on Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin had landed yesterday to meet with Iranian president Pezeshkian amongst others:
Some sources claim Mishustin was there to sign a major gas deal called the ‘contract of the century’, though official Russian outlets are more mum on the trip. Unreliable Moscow Times claims:
Under this “strategic agreement,” Iran will receive 300 million cubic meters of Russian gas per day through a new pipeline that Moscow plans to build under the Caspian Sea in direct competition with Azerbaijani and Turkem plans for an east-west pipeline.
We’ll keep the Ukraine news light today. Israel’s invasion and subsequent Iranian attack obscured the news that Russian forces finally captured Ugledar after two years of bitter fighting.
The 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Lozovskaya Red Banner Brigade is a tactical formation of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation. It is part of the 29th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District. Its permanent deployment point is in Borzya, Zabaikalsky Krai.
Apart from the Vostok Buryats there are many other units yesterday took part in this awesome operation in Ugledar, here are the The 40th separate guards marine brigade operating inside the city
The STORM detachment. The 40th separate guards marine brigade captured a block of high-rise buildings on the western side of Ugledar. For the first time, the vest is raised, which is considered a symbol of the courage and bravery of a Pacific warrior.
Geolocations for the above video montage:
Russian Army took Ugledar! - DS
▪️The military resource Deep State, working for the Main Intelligence Directorate, analyzed the video of the raising of flags and, after checking with its sources, confirmed the loss of the city by Ukraine.
▪️Other Ukrainian military analysts also draw this conclusion from numerous videos of Russian flags in different parts of the city.
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I feel bad for the Americans. Yes, they live in the biggest empire in human history. But the US is the #1 country in the world in consumption of antidepressants and other psychotropic medications, the #1 in the use of illegal drugs. Half of all American adults are functionally illiterate and the are many more problems.
Americans live in the biggest empire in human history. And there are many other statistics to boast – biggest GDP in the world, giant corporations worth trillions of dollars, the largest number of millionaires and billionaires, extraordinary dominance over the digital world and the media, technological superiority in many areas, dollar as the preeminent reserve currency of the world, and so on.
However, such impressive data hides a myriad of ugly facts faced by the average American who is financially broke, physically sick, mentally unhappy, and pessimistic about the future. How could that be? Let’s unpack life in the Empire of Lies, where the elites wage not only wars everywhere around the world but also on their own people.
The first thing to remember about the US is the mind-boggling inequality. Thus, while the US’ GDP-per- capita is $80,000, it does not mean that a family of three – mom, dad and a child – earn $240,000 a year. In fact, 92% of American households earn less than $240,000. Here’s a shocking stat: the top 1% of Americans earn more money than the entire Middle Class!
Similarly, the US stock market is worth nearly $50 trillion, but it’s almost entirely (93%) owned by the top 10%. This is plutocracy.
There is also another type of inequality – based on geography. While people in coastal states like California or New York make more money (on the average), there are vast areas in middle America that are crumbling and decaying, thanks to deindustrialization. Go to YouTube and search for “dying cities in America” and you can spend an entire day watching shocking videos. There are third-world and fourth- world countries hiding inside America.
Even in the relatively wealthier states, a majority of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck, because of the high cost of living. For example, in the 1960s, an average home cost twice as much as the average income. Now, the ratio is 7. Plus, in most families now, both parents must work to make ends meet, while a few decades ago, just the husband could work and support his entire family.
Education is key to the success of any nation, but the wealthiest nation ranks at the bottom of the OECD nations in math, science and reading. Half of all American adults are functionally illiterate. And when young Americans go to college, they often get useless degrees and are collectively burdened with $1.7 trillion of student loan. Welcome to a life of debt serfdom.
It’s no wonder that 78% of Americans say that their children will be worse off (than the parents).
But the problems continue.
All of America's big cities exhibit the huge problems afflicting this nation—grotesque inequality, drug use, dirty streets, crime, rundown neighborhoods, homelessness. All victims of the country's unofficial religion: capitalism.
It’s sad that most Americans cannot afford real food. The mainstream food is not even real food, it’s simply a toxic concoction of chemicals, GMO, sugar, bad fat, and ultra-processed junk. Hence the term SAD – Standard American Diet. The food corporations do not know anything about health, and the health corporations do not know anything about food.
Not surprisingly, Americans are also mentally sick. The US is the #1 country in the world in consumption of antidepressantsand other psychotropic medications. Big Pharma rigs all the clinical trials and comes up with fake science about “chemical imbalance” in the brain. Thus, even children in primary school are forced to take brain-altering drugs, some of which act in ways identical to cocaine or meth.
The US is also the #1 in the use of illegal drugs. 100,000 Americans die every year from drug overdose, but the elites do not care, since there is an endless supply of illegal immigrants across the border.
The cabal that rules the USA must really hate Americans, because there is no other explanation for the destructive social engineering that is being forced upon the masses. Since WW2, the US establishment has managed to destroy Christianity, tradition, wholesome values, and families by relentless bombardment of degeneracy and hedonism through Hollywood, media and even the legal system. What is being done to American children right now is unspeakable perversion. Worse, the experiments done in the US are soon spread to Europe and many other parts of the world. Thankfully, some countries like Russia and China have rejected these psychotic “values.”
So, what is left for the greatness of America? Capitalism, Freedom and Democracy? Let’s take a look.
There is no real capitalism or free market in the US. The real model of the US is “financial capitalism” or “casino capitalism” or “crony capitalism.” For more details, here’s my article on how financial capitalism is destroying the USA. There is an illusion of a free market in the US, but all the major corporations are controlled by a handful of giant financial corporations like Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street, which are the biggest shareholders. Moreover, all public corporations are controlled by a small network of people who sit on the boards of directors. Thus, there is only “One Corp” with different names such as Google, Lockheed Martin, Goldman Sachs, Pfizer, Walmart etc. This is neo-feudalism, not capitalism.
How about democracy, the one word that justifies all American wars? Lots of studies, including one from Princeton University, have shown that America works just like a textbook oligarchy. There is only one party in the US, but it comes in two flavors – Democrats and Republicans. This uniparty is funded by the One Corp mentioned before and special interest groups like AIPAC.
However, the US has an elaborate reality show known as the presidential election every four years. This rigged system is why Congress has an approval rating of 20% and nearly half of all Americans do not vote. But the clown show must go on.
While Americans love their freedom, it is increasingly under attack. Political correctness stifles discussion of many critical topics involving politics and geopolitics. People and groups on social media quickly get cancelled for daring to have the “wrong thought.” It is so bad that Americans cannot even talk about what they cannot talk about! There is a multibillion-dollar censorship industry made up of deep state, special interest groups, corporations and tech giants. And the US is working closely with its vassal, the European Union. As the official narratives keep losing their influence, totalitarianism is increasing, as seen by arrests and raids of journalists.
America’s oligarchs have been playing divide-and-rule in order to neutralize the 99%. However, this has resulted in an extremely polarized nation, which might face a civil war in the future. To preempt a revolution, the rulers of America are encouraging unbridled illegal immigration and are openly talking about getting rid of the Constitution. The mask will completely come off soon.
As for technological primacy, America is quickly losing that battle as well. China dominates the world not only in traditional industries such as steel production, but also modern sectors such as electric cars, EV batteries, solar panels, next-gen nuclear power plants etc. According to a study by Australia’s ASPI, China leads the world in 57 out of 64 critical technologies. Two decades ago, the US was #1 in 60 out of 64. In spite of brutal US sanctions on hundreds of top Chinese tech companies, China is on the verge of making breakthroughs in semiconductor technology. Once China masters the chip ecosystem, it will be game over for the US empire.
Finally, thanks to aggressive imperialism, the rest of the world is embracing BRICS and dedollarization. When that takes off, the US will lose its ability to print and/or borrow trillions of dollars. Once the voodoo economics is gone, Americans will face devastating austerity. The cost of imports will go up and the standard of living will decline, while the US government will be forced to slash spending, layoff workers, and raise the retirement age.
Conclusion
Americans need to wake up to the fact they are ruled by psychopathic and incompetent elites. Unfortunately, too many Americans are still hoodwinked by propaganda, since the entire US establishment – corporations, politicians, media, think tanks, academia etc. – is very disciplined in sticking to the official narratives.
The US needs a complete overhaul of its domestic and foreign policies. At home, the US needs to re-industrialize and focus on the welfare of farmers and workers. Also, the US should go back to traditional family values and reject the globalists’ social engineering. Abroad, the US needs to end the perpetual wars, make friends with Russia and China, and embrace a multipolar world.
Can Americans avoid the tragic end of an empire?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR SL Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst, columnist, blogger, tweeter, podcaster. Based out of Bangalore, India.
Lili News 029
In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.
Renowned geopolitical commentator Mark Sleboda sorts out truth from fact regarding the latest developments in the Middle East and Ukraine. He flatly refutes the Western official meme that Iran's latest barrage of missiles was a flop.
US Threatens Attacks with Israel on Iran, Iranian Missile Strike Overwhelmed & Penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome, more... Radio Interview on the Critical Hour 02/10/24
Special
Note the shrieks of sheer delight of long-oppressed Palestinians at the beautiful sight of avenging Iranian missiles.
Despite the danger posed by the invading Israeli army, Mahmoud was determined not to leave his home in Khan Younis near the Sunniyya roundabout since the beginning of the genocide in October 2023.
He, his wife, two young sons aged 7 and 10 and other family members were all sheltering in a two-story house.
In December, when the Israeli army ordered the evacuation of Khan Yunis, Mahmoud’s mother and sisters fled to Rafah. But his wife, two sons and he remained on the first floor of their home.
In January, the second floor of their house was hit in an Israeli attack, causing severe damage. The two children were traumatized. And the whole family was scared to leave the house, which by then had Israeli tanks stationed on all sides.
Their only option was to go down to the basement.
Their basement was really a storage area. It has no windows and no sunlight. But it was safer than being over ground. Outside was a battle zone and the resistance fought constant running battles with the Israeli army.
The tanks and bulldozers destroyed everything in their path. Rubble piled up at the door of the basement, trapping Mahmoud and his family inside.
For two days, the family watched their provisions dwindle. But outside, the fighting subsided and once the tanks and bulldozers retreated, resistance fighters came to the family’s aid, clearing the rubble and bringing them food before disappearing again.
It was a relief for the family, but provisions soon ran out again, and Mahmoud was forced to venture out to get food.
The family spent months in the basement. Eventually they left. When they did, they had been so long out of daylight that all suffered some damage to their vision.
The family has now joined other displaced people in Khan Younis itself.
A foretelling
Dana was three months pregnant with her first child when the Israeli attacks started last October.
Luna, the youngest of Dana’s five sisters, told me about Dana, 24.
Dana married Dr. Tawfiq al-Farra, a dentist, four months before the war. They dreamed of starting a family together.
They were living in an apartment in Hamad City, an apartment complex in Khan Younis in the central Gaza Strip, when the Israeli attacks began last October.
Dana left their apartment to stay with her parents. Her father, Hassan al-Saqqa, who is also a doctor, was still working. But his car had been destroyed by an Israeli missile and he had to find other ways of getting to work, a worry to his family.
Every day, Dana would send her father messages to be sure he had arrived safely and to ensure he would keep them informed.
But then Dana disappeared.
On 23 October, she was at her parents’ house with Luna, cleaning a home that has now become a shelter for many displaced people. Dana prayed and left without saying goodbye to anyone.
“I called her to scold her about leaving like that,” Luna said. Dana told her she planned to return two days later on 25 October.
“On that morning, I woke up to a call from my friend who lives across from Tawfiq’s family home,” Luna said. The friend asked whether Dana and Tawfiq were with her.
“I immediately felt something had happened. My worst fears were confirmed when my friend told me that Tawfiq’s family home had been targeted,” Luna told The Electronic Intifada.
“Neither my mother nor I believed it at first, but another doctor informed my father that Tawfiq’s father’s house had been bombed, and they went to retrieve the martyrs.”
Dana’s father also recalled that day with a shudder.
“I had to try to identify my daughter, searching through torn clothes and severed limbs,” Hassan recalled. “Is this Dana’s? Is this Dana’s foot? I found nothing.”
The other doctors informed him however that there was a body in a hospital morgue that might be Dana’s. It was indeed her, as confirmed by her brother, Ali.
“My father and brother brought Dana’s body home for farewell, but we still can’t grasp the pain of losing her. Neither I nor my siblings abroad can comprehend it,” Luna said.
One sister, Rama, lives in Turkey, and “ran into the street when she received the news, unable to process the shock.”
Another sister, Dima, who lives in Germany, was suffering from postpartum depression when she learned about Dana. She locked herself in her room and has barely spoken to anyone since, according to Luna.
“For me, Dana was everything. She was my roommate, my confidante and my role model. I learned right from wrong from her,” Luna said.
In her last post on X, Dana confessed something she had always suspected.
Dana’s body was recovered on the day of the bombing, but 12 other victims remained trapped for several days due to a lack of resources.
The next day the body of Luna’s close friend Hala was brought out, and on the third day they found Tawfiq’s body, which was so decomposed, his mother was not allowed to see it.
Donya Ahmad Abu Sitta is a writer in Gaza.
A d d e n d u m
Families deserve answers about 88 bodies returned in a container
Workers carry an unidentified body found at Nasser Hospital in the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis on 23 April. Thousands are missing in Gaza, with families desperate for news. Rizek Abdeljawad/ Xinhua
The harrowing anxiety over their missing loved ones that has surrounded many Palestinian families for months broke to the surface on 25 September, when 88 unidentified bodies were found in a container on a truck that reportedly came from an Israeli-controlled crossing into Gaza.
The bodies arrived at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis with no accompanying data. There were no names, no ages, and no locations of recovery noted, according to the Ministry of Health, which refused to receive them and sent the truck back to the crossing from where it had come.
“We cannot allow them to disappear into an anonymous grave,” said the ministry in a statement, which confirmed the number of bodies. “Each of these individuals has a family, a history, a life that deserves recognition. We are demanding that their humanity be honored.”
More than 10,000 people in Gaza have been reported missing. Many are believed buried under rubble, but authorities in Gaza have also accused Israel of systematically disappearing significant numbers of people.
For the families, the lack of information is agonizing.
Ahmed Kafarna, whose son Salah disappeared nearly a year ago, described the torment.
“For months, we have lived in uncertainty. Is my son alive? Is he dead? Now, we hear about these bodies, but how can we know if one of them is our beloved?”
“No parent should have to bury their child without knowing. Not like this.”
His voice faltered, as raw emotion seemed about to overwhelm him, but he kept talking: “We just need answers. We need to know.”
Without a body to mourn, many families find it difficult to process their grief. They cannot hold funerals or create a space to commemorate their loved ones, denying them closure.
Khaled, whose 28-year-old friend Mahdi Abu Seedo has vanished, echoed Kafarna’s anguish.
“Every day feels like a cruel game. You cling to hope, and then you lose it again. And there’s no end, no peace,” he told The Electronic Intifada.
Dignity
Hisham Mehanna, a spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross, said international law mandates that those who have died during armed conflict be handled with dignity.
“It requires that the deceased be searched for, collected and evacuated, and that all available information must be recorded before disposing of the dead. This ensures that people do not go missing,” he told The Electronic Intifada.
Rights organizations have also weighed in. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor strongly condemned the manner in which the bodies were delivered to Gaza, emphasizing that Israel is obligated under international law and human rights standards not to mistreat the dead or their remains.
“Israel must take all necessary steps to identify the deceased, which includes recording as much information as possible and ensuring the dignified handling and transfer of the bodies, without interference with their graves,” the organization said in a press release.
For the families, every day without answers is another day of suffering.
Amina Nasir, 52, who has lost both her son, Nasir, and her brother Muhammad in the past months, said simply: “I have nothing left. No news, no body, no grave. Just memories and questions. It’s a torture I can’t describe.”
There are broader implications, too. Beyond the immediate suffering, this issue highlights a critical gap in how the international community addresses the rights of the dead in conflict zones. The Geneva Convention explicitly states that warring parties must keep records of the dead and facilitate the identification of bodies. But without enforcement, these legal obligations are too easily ignored.
The lack of clear information from Israel about the 88 bodies has fueled growing frustration. The Palestinian Ministry of Health has made it clear it will not back down from its demand for proper identification.
“We owe it to the families and we owe it to the dead,” a ministry spokesman, Ashraf al-Qedra, told The Electronic Intifada. “They are not just numbers or statistics. They are human beings who deserve to be treated with dignity, even in death.”
The international community’s silence on the matter is deafening, and families such as Salah Kafarna’s are left grappling with uncertainty.
“My son was a kind boy,” his father said softly, holding up a worn photograph. “He deserves to come home, even if it’s just to be laid to rest.”
Simplicius
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