France’s Anti-Pension Reform Protests Follow a Long Revolutionary Tradition and Pick Up Where the Yellow Vests Left Off

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Max Parry
Covert Action Magazine

Macron-Napoleon-6 Hat

For much of the past year, France has been gripped by widespread protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular pension reform law raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 years.

Despite a national survey showing overwhelming public opposition to the measure, it was enacted by the National Assembly and signed by the second-term president in April, with the controversial invocation of Article 49.3 of the Constitution enabling the benefit cuts to be forced through undemocratically.

As the Macron regime’s rule by decree and police brutality only seemed to fuel the insurrection, the unrest further escalated during the summer after a teenage boy of Algerian descent was killed by gendarmes in a Paris suburb. Although the protests have dissipated in recent months, when France has not been plagued by turmoil at home, its influence abroad has waned after a wave of coups within its former colonies in Africa.

Macron’s policies have fallen equally out of favor internally and the ongoing civil disorder has made France appear more of a failed state than any of its former overseas territories.

The draconian neo-liberal initiatives and the autocratic mechanisms used to impose them reignited mass demonstrations which have become commonplace throughout the former Rothschild banker’s entire tenure in office, starting in 2018 with the “gilets jaunes” (yellow vests) protests against an equally despised fuel tax increase that only came to a halt because of the nationwide coronavirus lockdowns in 2020.


Macron as Hitler. Macron is suing the billboard owner.


But while they were initially motivated by a surge in gas and diesel prices, Macron’s whole incumbency has been defined by his efforts to gut the social welfare system and an end to austerity was a central demand of the gilets jaunes as well. In fact, the recent pension reform strikes can largely be understood as having picked up where the yellow vests left off.

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Protests in France against pension reform following on the heels of the yellow vests. [Source: wikipedia.org]



During the popular protests nicknamed after the high-visibility clothing worn by participants in Macron’s first term, journalist Ramin Mazaheri was the correspondent for the Iranian news channel Press TV reporting on the ground in Paris. While much of the mainstream media at the time slandered the populist movement as right-wing tools of “Russian interference,” alternative outlets like the Islamic Republic’s state-owned network provided more even-handed coverage, albeit to a minimal media market in the West.

Now based in the United States, Mazaheri has since published a fascinating book, France’s Yellow Vests: Western Repression of the West’s Best Values, which not only details his first-hand account of the uprising but dispels many of the myths surrounding the politics of the marchers which were actually closer to the left-wing supporters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He then places the impact of the movement in a wider context of the country’s revolutionary tradition and progressive political history going all the way back to the overthrow of the Ancien Régime in 1789.



Spanning the last two and a half centuries, Mazaheri chronicles France’s unique place at the forefront of social change, starting with the French Revolution as the advent of political modernity and liberal democracy. Although he acknowledges the pivotal roles played by the 1688 “Glorious Revolution” in England and the American Revolution in 1776 in the transition from feudalism to capitalism, the Iranian correspondent draws an important distinction in his comparison of 1789 with the bourgeois revolutions in Britain and the United States.

While the British Isles may have established the rule of parliament and passed the Bill of Rights, in reality the absolute authority of hereditary monarchy was simply expanded to include the rest of the landed aristocracy. Similarly, in the American War of Independence, power was merely shifted from the British Empire to a new domestic elite in the 13 colonies, as explained in Howard Zinn’s A People’s History of the United States.

According to Mazaheri, it was the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen which truly laid the foundation for modern ideals of human civil rights and the French Revolution which conducted the first truly revolutionary experiment to transform the existing social order, with varying degrees of success in the ensuing decades.

France’s Yellow Vests goes on to highlight France’s distinctive role as a consistent spearhead of radical politics when it notably led the only successful European revolution of 1848 where its king was once again overthrown and the republic re-established, while the other wave of uprisings throughout the continent were put down and monarchy would remain the prevalent form of government until the end of World War I. Still, despite multiple major revolutions in less than a century, it was the bourgeoisie of France which had primarily benefited from them.

As Mazaheri points out, it was not until the short-lived but seminal Paris Commune of 1871 which founded the world’s first socialist democracy, when the working class fleetingly held state power and briefly transcended the empty promises of liberal democracy.

Despite lasting a mere few months, the French revolutionary government nevertheless was a precursor and opening to a period of history which would culminate in the Russian and Chinese Revolutions in the 20th century. Or as Lenin wrote, “in the present movement we all stand on the shoulders of the Commune.”


Diego Rivera, “Communards (Comuna de Paris),” 1928. Rivera was a committed but often confused revolutionist.  [Source: Artsy.net]

In his examinations of those aforementioned epochal rebellions, Mazaheri is largely in line with most Marxist historians. Instead, the real strength of the book lies in its provocative but brilliant re-evaluation of the Napoleonic era that completely upends both conventional historiography as well as the orthodox Marxist account of the First Consul of France.

The prototypical view of Napoleon, coincidentally the subject of a forthcoming Hollywood film, has always been that the renegade military general emerged during the Reign of Terror and political chaos following the overthrow of the monarchy, betraying the revolution by declaring himself emperor and marching across the continent as a military aggressor.

Since then, the Marxist theory of Bonapartism itself has generally come to refer to periods of crisis within capitalism when the ruling class uses counter-revolutionary forces to retake power and enact moderate reforms in order to stabilize the economy and prevent further upheaval. For example, even though Napoleon—whom Marx described as a “grotesque mediocrity to play a hero’s part”—introduced meritocracy and dismantled parts of the feudal system, he also reaffirmed old institutions like the Catholic Church as France’s state religion which had previously been disestablished by the Jacobins, among other reversals.

In The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte, Karl Marx famously observed that history had repeated itself—“the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce”—in reference to the respective coup d’états by Napoleon and his nephew, Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, half a century apart.

[Source: marxists.org]



While Marx opined that Napoleon III and his uncle had each corrupted the popular revolts which preceded their ascents to power, Mazaheri challenges us to rethink that notion and our entire understanding of Bonapartism. As our mutual colleague Jeff J. Brown also observed, Mazaheri’s alternative recounting is often reminiscent of political scientist Michael Parenti’s equally daring The Assassination of Julius Caesar: A People’s History of Ancient Rome, which argued that the Roman statesman was really murdered by the ruling elite for introducing land reforms and redistributing wealth to the poor.

Waterloo, “what is history but a fable agreed upon?

Mazaheri cites the fact that both Napoleon and his successor are said to have received popular support and were elected in what were, if legitimate, unprecedented plebiscites for the time in Europe. He also critiques what he considers the unnecessary division by historians between the Napoleonic Wars from the French Revolutionary Wars, arguing that all of the post-1789 military conflicts which pitted France against the coalitions of European monarchies were a collective effort to prevent the social achievements of the revolution from growing throughout the continent.

Although he concedes much of the radicalism of the revolution was rolled back by Napoleon (as well as the Thermidorian Reaction which preceded his reign), Mazaheri contends that bourgeois revolutions should be looked at as progressive on the whole if they move the mode of production out of feudal relations toward capitalism and an eventual step forward to socialist democracy. (While that may be true, he neglects to address Napoleon’s re-establishment of slavery in 1802 which had previously been abolished in all the former French colonies, including Saint-Domingue where the colonial government was defeated in the Haitian Revolution.)


Napoleon Bonaparte—the debate about him goes on. We must remember that in his time he was seen by Europe's entrenched aristocracy as a threat to the status quo comparable to Lenin, Castro, Ho, or Mao in the 20th century.  The British —as usual—led the campaign of demonisation. [Source: schloss-ludwigsburg.de]



Even if one is not fully convinced of his inverse portrayal of Napoleon’s attempt to spread the revolution across Europe as rather a “European War against the French Revolution,” it is undeniably thought-provoking and turns much of the story we are told about such a significant figure on its head. (Then again, historical revisionists have made similar defenses of Hitler and Nazi Germany, who like Napoleon, would make the fateful error of trying to invade Russia.)

Nonetheless, such a controversial revising of the Napoleonic era is a significant departure from the classical Marxist approach. Lenin, for one, would have patently disagreed with his characterization, writing in 1916:


Lenin with Stalin.  Their impact on history is still buried by mountains of calumny and willful ignorance.


“A national war can be transformed into an imperialist war, and vice versa. For example, the wars of the Great French Revolution started as national wars and were such. They were revolutionary wars because they were waged in defense of the Great Revolution against a coalition of counter-revolutionary monarchies. But after Napoleon had created the French Empire by subjugating a number of large, virile, long established national states of Europe, the French national wars became imperialist wars, which in their turn engendered wars for national liberation against Napoleon’s imperialism.”

Lenin’s view was consistent with Friedrich Engels in hiscorrespondence with Karl Kautsky on the subject of nationalism and internationalism in 1882:

One thing alone is certain: The victorious proletariat can force no blessings of any kind upon any foreign nation without undermining its own victory by so doing.

Still, what really complicates his apologism for Napoleon’s empire-building is the author’s frequent citation of Trotsky throughout the book. On the one hand, Mazaheri has many critical things to say about the cult-like political tendency which follows the latter in a chapter where he attempts to “reclaim Trotsky from the Trotskyists” in his defense of the yellow vests.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to separate the movement from the man himself and the repeated references have unintended implications for Mazaheri’s re-examination of Napoleon. In particular, they raise questions over the age-old internal debate on the left over Trotsky’s theory of permanent revolution versus the concept of “socialism in one country” that was adopted as Soviet policy following his expulsion.


Leon Trotsky: Still the source of extreme factionalism within the Marxian left.

After all, the former tactic was rejected by the Comintern, as were Trotsky’s previous efforts as war commissar to oppose the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and continue Moscow’s participation in World War I in the hopes of inciting socialist revolutions in Western Europe.

In fact, his ideas can arguably be understood as a conceptual basis for the expansionism of the neo-conservative movement, the founders of which were notably former American Trotskyists in the 1930s. From that point of view, if Napoleon were truly committed to the ideals and principles of the revolution through military conquest, he could be interpreted as having waged a ‘permanent revolution’ of his own.

It is on that same politically confused basis that Mazaheri also makes several historically inaccurate claims about the failure of the Popular Front strategy being responsible for the rise of fascism, instead of where the blame more likely falls on the disruptions by the Fourth International and the treachery of social democracy.

The truth is there is as much evidence to support the view that Napoleon was a child of the Age of Enlightenment who championed the education system and religious freedom as there is to demonstrate he was an authoritarian military strongman who enlarged the French Empire by seizing territories. It is also possible to assert that the principles of socialist democracy were still in their infancy and perhaps it is unfair to judge his entire political legacy with the benefit of hindsight, as Mazaheri puts forward.


Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte [Source: wikipedia.org]

Then again, in the case of Louis-Napoleon, Marx happened to be living in Paris in 1851 and witnessed the revolution he co-opted first-hand. However, what is certainly true is the crucial point made overall which is that, throughout history, whenever strong leaders have used their power to do good things, they are often demonized by the status quo only to be redeemed later, regardless of whether it applies to Napoleon. This is in keeping with prior work by the Press TVcorrespondent who previously penned a passionate defense of the Islamic socialist model in Iran, as flouting such predetermined narratives on the Western left is his modus operandi.

Yet, if there is any figure who has been unjustly slandered by mainstream historians from the French Revolution, that distinction would apply much more so to Maximilien Robespierre than Napoleon. Surely, Macron would not dare lay a wreath at the Jacobin leader’s tomb or commemorate the anniversary of his death as was given on the bicentenary marking the Emperor of the French’s passing in exile, nor does Hollywood have any plans to portray him in an epic blockbuster.

Even though it was under Robespierre, whom Lenin regarded as a “Bolshevik avant la lettre,” when slavery was abolished in the French colonies, liberal historians have always dismissed his contribution as purely that of a bloodthirsty despot, perhaps even more so than Napoleon.


Maximilien Robespierre [Source: wikipedia.org]


Mazaheri and his readers should turn to the Italian Marxist philosopher Domenico Losurdo’s work, especially War and Revolution: Rethinking the 20th Century and Liberalism: A Counter-History. In their respective polemics, Losurdo and Mazaheri actually share a frequent ideological target in Edmund Burke, the philosophical founder of modern conservatism known by his work Reflections on the Revolution in France, which denounced 1789 on the basis of the Terror while whitewashing equivalent political violence of the English and American Revolutions. However, Losurdo sharply differs on Napoleon and elucidates an important point where the military commander and Robespierre diverged:

“It is hard to believe that the Jacobin leader would have been able to recognize himself in Napoleon. In the course of his controversy with the Girondins, he not only vigorously rejected the idea of exporting revolution, but also warned revolutionary armies against emulating the fatal course of Louis XIV’s expansionism…It might be said that Robespierre legitimized the anti-Napoleonic war in advance.”


Robespierre Monument in Moscow, 1918. [Source: Wikipedia.org]



While there may be quibbles about his presentation of French political history, Mazaheri’s grasp of the country’s current predicament could not be more on the mark. The timing of the release of the book could also not be better because, like the yellow vests, the millions of pension reform opponents filling the streets of France today are still trying to fulfill the demands of 1789, storming the offices of BlackRock like the Bastille. Or, at the very least, preserving what remains of social democracy in France from Macron’s shock therapy.

Each time the working class has tried to take matters into their own hands, its revolt has been brutally suppressed by those in power, only to be reignited later. By including quotes throughout the book from personal interviews with yellow-vested Parisians, Mazaheri shows how the grievances of ordinary people remain the same today, reading like excerpts of dialogue straight out of scenes from filmmaker Peter Watkins’ dramatization of La Commune.

Macron’s authoritarianism, along with the unelected bureaucracy in Brussels, has revealed the true ugly face of Western liberal democracy that can only continue to exist under state violence and dictatorial rule, as it has ever since tens of thousands of communards were murdered in 1871. As Marx wrote in The Civil War in France:

“Working men’s Paris, with its Commune, will be forever celebrated as the glorious harbinger of a new society. Its martyrs are enshrined in the great heart of the working class. Its exterminator’s history has already nailed to that eternal pillory from which all the prayers of their priest will not avail to redeem them.”

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Max Parry is an independent journalist and geopolitical analyst based in New York City. His writing has appeared widely in alternative media and he is a frequent political commentator featured in Sputnik News and Press TV. Max can be reached at maxrparry@live.com



The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of  The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience. 

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Niger sitreps: the situation continues to be fluid as the West’s hold on Africa slips away.

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Jimmy Dore • Danny Haiphong • Ben Norton • Glenn Greenwald
plus
THOMAS SCRIPPS DISPATCH ON NIGER AND THE REGION
(WSWS.ORG)


The recent coup in Niger has sent shockwaves throughout West Africa, not to mention Europe and the United States. France was once the colonial power controlling Niger, and still wields tremendous influence over the nation’s economy. But this latest coup threatens all that, especially France’s access to cheap yellowcake to run France’s nuclear power plants.


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Aug 9, 2023
What Real “Democracy Interference" Looks Like: US in Pakistan, Niger, & Ukraine, w/ Darren Beattie. Plus: Twitter Compelled to Hand Over Trump Records | SYSTEM UPDATE #127

ADDENDUM


West African states step back from immediate military action against Niger due to popular opposition

2 hours ago

Plans for a military intervention in Niger to restore overthrown president Mohamed Bazoum have been put on hold by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Four days after its deadline for his reinstatement passed, a closed-doors summit was held Thursday in Abuja, capital of lead ECOWAS state Nigeria. Its President Bola Tinubu told the media, “We prioritise diplomatic negotiations and dialogue as the bedrock of our approach” and said it was “our duty to exhaust all avenues of engagement to ensure a swift return to constitutional governance in Niger.”

A week ago, Nigeria and ECOWAS were speaking about a military intervention as almost a certainty. Senegal, Benin and the Ivory Coast had all pledged to contribute troops and battle plans had reportedly been drawn up.

The union was backed by the imperialist powers, most aggressively the former colonial power in Niger, France, whose 1,500 troops are threatened with expulsion. Their main concern, set out by US Secretary of the State Antony Blinken, was that Niger would go the way of Mali and Burkina Faso—where military coups took place in May 2021 and September 2022—and turn to Russia and its Wagner paramilitary group.

Russian flags have featured in pro-coup demonstrations in Niger and its military leaders have reportedly been in touch with Wagner.

Blinken said Tuesday, “I think what happened, and what continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner, but... they tried to take advantage of it.

“Every single place that this Wagner group has gone, death, destruction and exploitation have followed.”

China is also seen as a threat to imperialist interests, which has major stakes in Nigerien uranium mines and oil fields and refineries. In 2019, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) launched a five-year plan to “deter Chinese and Russian malign action”. The US has two military bases and 1,100 declared soldiers in Niger.

Almost immediately, however, imperialist officials were sounding notes of caution, stressing “mediation” and a “diplomatic solution” between Niger and ECOWAS. On Wednesday, Blinken called in careful language for “continued efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the current constitutional crisis,” specifying only “the immediate release of [Bazoum] and his family.”

Fears that a war would destabilise imperialist investments and security agreements played a part, particularly for the European powers, who have turned to Africa as a source of energy exports in the wake of the NATO-Russia war and rely on Niger to police the movement of refugees set for Europe across the Sahara to the Mediterranean coast.

But the main problem faced by Washington and other imperialist capitals is anti-imperialist sentiment and social discontent throughout West Africa undermining ECOWAS’s ability to respond—most importantly Nigeria.

Mali and Burkina Faso were suspended from the union following military coups which made a point of appealing to anti-colonial feeling. French and other European soldiers were told to leave.

Both countries pledged to join any war against Niger in its defence. They have written to the United Nations Security Council asking it to prevent any military intervention and “Accusing Western powers of using ECOWAS as a proxy to conceal a hostile agenda towards Niger,” according to Al Jazeera.

During a visit to the Nigerien capital Niamey earlier in the week, a Mali government spokesperson commented, “I would like to remind you that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been dealing for over 10 years with the negative... consequences of NATO’s hazardous adventure in Libya.”

Mali’s military rulers have their own self-serving reasons for raising these points, but they are true and express broadly held views among workers and the rural poor.

NATO’s 2011 war against the government of Muamar Gaddafi shattered Libyan society and created a breeding ground for Islamist militias—the first of which were funded and trained by the US as proxies. These have spilled over into the wider Sahel region, killing thousands and displacing hundreds of thousands, sustained by the poverty of a region devasted by centuries of Western colonialism and imperialism.

Ongoing violence has since been used as a pretext for imperialist soldiers and military bases to operate throughout the region, amid widespread popular hostility.

The governments in Mali and Burkina Faso fear this anger. Their biggest worry is that a major Western-sponsored conflict would unleash the mass and genuine anti-imperialist they imitate and topple them from their own positions of power—from which they adopt various anti-colonial poses while overseeing the continued relentless exploitation of the population by global banks and corporations.

The class character of these military regimes has been made very clear by Niger itself, where Tchiani has appointed Ali Lamine Zeine as prime minister—a former finance minister who oversaw an International Monetary Fund-directed “restructuring” of the Nigerien economy in the early 2000s.

Similar issues have burst to the surface in Nigeria. Tinubu’s bullish response immediately following the coup have melted away over the last week under the glare of popular opposition, especially in the north of the country whose people share close ties with Nigeriens.

The BBC reported that many people were “appalled that electricity to Niger was cut.” The country depends on Nigeria for 70 percent of its supplies and has suffered blackouts.

A 24-year-old textile trader, who plans to marry a Nigerien woman, told the New York Times, “If a fight erupts, who will be at the receiving end? Me and most of us with dual nationality.”

The paper noted the “ethnic ties, language and a livelihood from active trade” binding the two populations. Hausa speakers are spread across the two countries, divided by the colonial border drawn between the French Nigerien and British Nigerian colonies.

What the Financial Times referred to as “fierce domestic opposition” builds on growing popular anger against Tinubu’s savage economic programme enacted on behalf of international investors, which will see the government spend 60 percent of its revenue on debt repayments this year. Fuel subsidies have been cut, tripling petrol prices, and inflation is running at 22 percent, prompting strikes and protests. It is only three years since anti-police End SARS protests rocked the country.

Concerns that an unpopular and costly war would explode this powder keg were reflected in nervous statements urging against war from various politicians, civil society groups, councils of elders, religious organisations and even General Christopher Gwabin Musa, Nigeria’s chief of defence staffthe most senior uniformed military adviser to the president and minister of defence—who commented that Nigeria and Niger would be “next to each other forever” and that a war would be like “fighting your brother”.

Niger [Photo by Peter Fitzgerald / CC BY-SA 4.0]

Without Nigeria to lead it, any ECOWAS intervention is impossible. The country has a larger population than the 14 other ECOWAS states combined, is the largest economy in Africa, and its roughly 230,000 soldiers dwarf other local militaries.

Amid the geopolitical schemes, conspiracies and power plays across West Africa and the entire continent, the decisive factor is the rapidly growing working class and the rural poor. Their hostility to the imperialist powers has seen French soldiers driven out of its former colonial stomping grounds almost entirely and forced the US to operate with a low profile, leaving major actions to proxies to which it bestows the titles of “free” and “democratic” countries.

As the situation in Nigeria shows, even this strategy is falling foul of popular opposition to imperialism’s continued baleful influence in the region, leaving its clients without a trace of “democratic” legitimacy.

However, the threat of war remains, driven by the global conflict between the imperialist powers and Russia and China erupting in different flashpoints and via various proxies across the globe. Tinubu announced at the close of the ECOWAS summit in Abuja that “no option had been taken of the table” and that the union’s “standby force” had been activated.

The danger can only be averted by organising the anti-imperialist sentiment and hostility to the local ruling class behind a socialist programme, which sees workers in Africa join forces with the international working class around the world in a fight against all war and exploitation.


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The Nigerian Coup Could Be A Game-Changer In The New Cold War

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ANDREW KORYBKO

Which way will the new Nigerian junta go? Toward multipolarity or back to an imperialist embrace?


It’s too early to tell whether the Nigerian junta is multipolar like its neighbors or if it’ll be co-opted by the West to function as a new face for their neo-imperialist system there, but it would be a game-changer in the New Cold War’s African front if this group took a page from its Malian and Burkinabe counterparts.

West Africa’s Latest Regime Change

Members of the Nigerian military claimed on Wednesday to have deposed President Bazoum, which could be a game-changer in the New Cold War. They said that the deteriorating socio-economic and security situations forced them to act, a curfew will be imposed, and the borders will be closed for the time being. Additionally, the junta promised to respect the human rights of those officials who they overthrew and warned foreign powers not to meddle in their country’s affairs.

Background Briefings

This regime change closely resembles those in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso in 2021 and 2022 respectively where members of the military seized power on similar pretexts. Those two’s new leaders weren’t Western puppets like their predecessors but firm believers in multipolarity, which resulted in them standing up to France and comprehensively expanding strategic ties with Russia. Here are some background briefings to bring unaware readers up to speed about recent developments in this region:

* 7 July 2022: “The Malian Junta Isn’t A ‘Defensively Nationalist Regime’ But An African Pioneer

* 23 July 2022: “The Western Infowar On Mali Rebrands Terrorists As Simply Being ‘Extremist/Jihadi Rebels’

* 23 July 2022: “Russia Pledged To Help African Countries Finally Complete The Process Of Decolonization

* 24 July 2022: “Al Qaeda’s Malian Branch Just Declared War On Russia

* 30 July 2022: “Macron’s Smears Show How Desperate France Has Become To Regain Its Lost Influence In Africa

* 2 August 2022: “Mali Reminded Macron That France Has Lost Its Hegemony Over West Africa

* 4 August 2022: “Bloomberg’s Acknowledgement Of Russian Gains In Africa Is A Soft Power Defeat For The US

* 4 August 2022: “The US Delusionally Denied That It’s Competing With Russia In Africa

* 10 August 2022: “Russia’s Latest Military Aid To Mali Confirms Its Regional Anti-Terrorist Commitment

* 10 August 2022: “The Interim Malian President’s Call With Putin Is Actually A Pretty Big Deal

* 11 August 2022: “Africa’s Role In The New Cold War

* 6 October 2022: “Why’s The West So Spooked By Possible Burkinabe-Russian Military Cooperation?

* 20 October 2022: “Axios Exposed France’s Infowar Against Russia In Africa

* 7 November 2022: “Analyzing President Putin’s Vision Of Russian-African Relations

* 22 November 2022: “Mali’s Banning Of All French-Funded NGOs Will Defend Its Democracy From Paris’ Meddling

* 5 December 2022: “Is France Funneling Ukrainian Arms To West African Terrorists?

* 31 December 2022: “The Top Five Geostrategic Developments In Africa Last Year

* 15 February 2023: “Russia’s Newfound Appeal To African Countries Is Actually Quite Easy To Explain

* 7 March 2023: “Dmitry Medvedev Is Right: The Global South Is Rising Up Against Neo-Colonialism

* 5 May 2023: “Burkina Faso’s Strategic Alliance With Russia Will Further Stabilize West Africa

* 8 May 2023: “American Officials Told Politico Their Plan For Waging Hybrid War Against Wagner In Africa

* 26 May 2023: “The US Is Rolling Out A New Lie For Pressuring African States To Cut Off Ties With Wagner

In short, Wagner helps Russia’s African partners enhance their “Democratic Security”, which refers to the wide range of counter-Hybrid Warfare tactics and strategies to protect their national models of democracy from related (mostly Western-emanating) threats. This in turn strengthens their sovereignty and thus accelerates Africa’s rise as an independent pole in the emerging Multipolar World Order. As could be expected, these processes are being fiercely opposed by France and the US.

Those two are jointly waging proxy wars against Russia in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR) since these states function as their respective regions’ multipolar cores. The West fears that Niger and Chad, its last strongholds in West and Central Africa correspondingly, could follow in neighboring Mali’s and the CAR’s footsteps to create a multipolar corridor across a broad swath of the continent. Before going any further, the reader should be aware that Wagner still remains in the Kremlin’s good graces:

* 25 June: “Prigozhin Blinked After Putin Mercifully Gave Him A Final Chance To Save His Life

* 26 June: “The US Manipulated Alt-Media Into Waging Its Infowar On Russia In Africa By Smearing Wagner

* 27 June: “Prigozhin Was The West’s ‘Useful Idiot’

* 10 July: “There’s Nothing Conspiratorial About Putin Meeting With Wagner Leaders After The Failed Coup

Basically, Wagner has become so indispensable to advancing Russia’s “Democratic Security”-driven strategy in Africa that it would be counterproductive to disband it, hence the need to retain the group’s effectiveness amidst its ongoing restructuring after late June’s failed coup attempt. Having clarified this state of affairs for those observers who might have been misled about its present relationship with the Kremlin and future role in Africa, it’s time to update them about Chad:

* 21 October 2022: “The Latest Round Of Chadian Unrest Poses The Greatest Challenge To France’s ‘Sphere Of Influence’

* 9 April 2023: “Chad Expelled The German Ambassador A Month After The US Claimed Russia Was Meddling

* 21 April 2023: “Here’s Why The US Is Trying To Pin The Blame For Sudan’s ‘Deep State’ War On Russia

* 12 May 2023: “Bloomberg Demands That Biden Meddle In Chad On The Pretext Of Averting A Sudanese Scenario

To sum it up, Chad is a regional military powerhouse that used to do France’s bidding but has impressively recalibrated its policies over the past year. The interim government woke up to the West’s destabilization plots and refused to fall for their information warfare narratives fearmongering about Russia’s newfound role in neighboring countries. Chad’s geostrategic trajectory accelerates multipolar processes in Central Africa and therefore turns Niger into the last de facto Western stronghold.

Strategic Review

The insight shared up until this point was required for the reader to properly understand the potentially game-changing significance of the Nigerian coup in the New Cold War. To briefly review, Russia is accelerating multipolar processes in Africa through Wagner’s “Democratic Security” operations, with Mali and the CAR functioning as the associated cores in their respective regions. France and the US oppose these developments, which is why they’re jointly waging proxy wars against Russia there.

Those two fear that Niger and Chad will follow in their corresponding neighbor’s footsteps, yet the latter has already somewhat done so despite not experiencing a coup as proven by the moves that its interim government began to make over the past year to strengthen its sovereignty. This leaves Niger as the last reliable bastion of Western influence in this broad swath of Africa, yet its traditional role can no longer be taken for granted if the junta emulates the Malian and Burkinabe precedents.

Setting The Stage For A Game-Changer

This country is disproportionately important to France since 62.6% of the latter’s electricity was generated from nuclear power last year, at least one-third of which was fueled by Nigerian uranium. These statistics mean that this West African country’s prime export accounted for roughly 20% of all French electricity in 2022, which is expected to increase even further due to more uranium deals and Paris’ commitment to the “green agenda”.

Furthermore, France recently set up a regional “partnership HQ” in Niger after its forces were expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso, which reinforced its long-standing role there. Over the past half-decade, Italy and Germany deployed troops to this country too to help them stem illegal immigration to the EU, while the US built a major drone base on the pretext of fighting terrorism. All the while, Niger remains one of the poorest places on earth, and terrorist attacks have been picking up pace over the past year.

This context resembles the situations in pre-coup Mali and Burkina Faso, thus extending credence to the explanation put forth by the Nigerian military for its latest coup regarding their desire to reverse the deteriorating socio-economic and security situations. To that end, the region’s newest junta might emulate its two western neighbors by cracking down on foreign media and “NGO” meddling, kicking out French (and possibly all other foreign) troops, and requesting Russia’s “Democratic Security” assistance.

Unlike Mali and Burkina Faso, however, Niger has strategic natural resources that it could consider nationalizing in order to immediately obtain the wealth required to improve its largely impoverished people’s plight. Any moves in that direction would be likely be regarded by France as a potential national security threat, however, so the junta might either be reluctant to do this or could tread cautiously and not seriously deliberate this course of action until after it completes the abovementioned steps.

Concluding Thoughts

It’s too early to tell whether the Nigerian junta is multipolar like its neighbors or if it’ll be co-opted by the West to function as a new face for their neo-imperialist system there, but it would be a game-changer in the New Cold War’s African front if this group took a page from its Malian and Burkinabe counterparts. In that event, the West would lose its last stronghold in this broader region, which would unprecedentedly accelerate Africa’s rise as an independent pole in the emerging Multipolar World Order.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Andrew Korybko is an independent geopolitical analyst based in Moscow.


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You are under contrôle: French elites privately fear the US and new research explains why

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by Felix Livshitz

Thanks to © 2022 George Burchett, TRI-COULEURS, iPad art, 16.11.22



RT

New research published by France’s Ecole de Guerre Economique has revealed some extraordinary findings about who and what the French intelligence services fear most when it comes to threats to the country’s economy.

The findings are based on extensive research and interviews with French intelligence experts, including representatives of spy agencies, and so reflect the positions and thinking of specialists in the under-researched field of economic warfare. Their collective view is very clear - 97 percent consider the US to be the foreign power that “most threatens” the “economic interests” of Paris.

Who is your true enemy?

The research was conducted to answer the question, “what will become of France in an increasingly exacerbated context of economic war?”. This query has become increasingly urgent for the EU as Western sanctions on Moscow’s exports, in particular energy, have had a catastrophic effect on European countries, but have not had the predicted effect Russia. Nor have they hurt the US, the country pushing most aggressively for these measures.

Yet, the question is not being asked in other EU capitals. It is precisely the continent-wide failure, or unwillingness at least, to consider the “negative repercussions on the daily lives” of European citizens that inspired the Ecole de Guerre Economique report.

As the report’s lead author Christian Harbulot explains, ever since the end of World War II, France has “lived in a state of the unspoken,” as have other European countries.

At the conclusion of that conflict, “manifest fear” among French elites of the Communist Party taking power in France “strongly incited a part of the political class to place our security in the hands of the US, in particular by calling for the establishment of permanent military bases in France.”

“It goes without saying that everything has its price. The compensation for this aid from across the Atlantic was to make us enter into a state of global dependence - monetary, financial, technological - with regard to the US,” Harbulot says. And aside from 1958 - 1965 when General Charles de Gaulle attempted to increase the autonomy of Paris from Washington and NATO, French leaders have “fallen into line.”

This acceptance means aside from rare public scandals such as the sale of French assets to US companies, or Australia canceling its purchase of French-made submarines in favor of a controversial deal with the US and UK (AUKUS), there is little recognition - let alone discussion - in the mainstream as to how Washington exerts a significant degree of control over France’s economy, and therefore politics.

As a result, politicians and the public alike struggle to identify “who their enemy” truly is. “In spheres of power” across Europe, Harbulot says, “it is customary to keep this kind of problem silent,” and economic warfare remains an “underground confrontation which precedes, accompanies and then takes over from classic military conflicts.”

This in turn means any debate about “hostility or harmfulness” in Europe’s relations with Washington misses the underlying point that “the US seeks to ensure its supremacy over the world, without displaying itself as a traditional empire.”

The EU might have a trade surplus of 150 billion euros with the US, but the latter would never willingly allow this economic advantage to translate to “strategic autonomy” from it. And this gain is achieved against the constant backdrop of - and more than offset by - “strong geopolitical and military pressure” from the US at all times.

I spy with my Five Eyes

Harbulot believes the “state of the unspoken” to be even more pronounced in Germany, as Berlin “seeks to establish a new form of supremacy within Europe” based on its dependency on the US.

As France “is not in a phase of power building but rather in a search to preserve its power” - a “very different” state of affairs - this should mean the French can more easily recognize and admit to toxic dependency on Washington, and see it as a problem that must be resolved.

It is certainly hard to imagine such an illuminating and honest report being produced by a Berlin-based academic institute, despite the country being the most badly affected by anti-Russian sanctions. Some analysts have spoken of a possible deindustrialization of Germany, as its inability to power energy-intensive economic sectors has destroyed its 30-year-long trade surplus - maybe forever.

But aside from France’s “dependency” on Washington being different to that of Germany, Paris has other reasons for cultivating a “culture of economic combat,” and keeping very close track of the “foreign interests” that are harming the country’s economy and companies.

A US National Security Agency spying order sent to other members of the Five Eyes global spying network - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK - released by WikiLeaks, shows that since at least 2002 Washington has issued its English-speaking allies annual “information need” requests, seeking any and all information they can dig up on the economic activities of French companies, the economic and trade policies of France’s government, and the views of Paris on the yearly G8 and G20 summits.

Whatever is unearthed is shared with key US economic decision-makers and departments, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury, as well as intelligence agencies, such as the CIA. Another classified WikiLeaks release shows that the latter – between November 2011 and July 2012 – employed spies from across the Five Eyes (OREA) to infiltrate and monitor the campaigns of parties and candidates in France’s presidential election.

Washington was particularly worried about a Socialist Party victory, and so sought information on a variety of topics, “to prepare key US policymakers for the post-election French political landscape and the potential impact on US-France relations.” Of particular interest was “the presidential candidates' views on the French economy, what current economic policies…they see as not working, and what policies…they promote to help boost France's economic growth prospects[.]”

The CIA was also very interested in the “views and characterization” of the US on the part of presidential candidates, and any efforts by them and the parties they represented to “reach out to leaders of other countries,” including some of the states that form the Five Eyes network itself.

Naturally, those members would be unaware that their friends in Washington, and other Five Eyes capitals, would be spying on them while they spied on France.

It was clearly not for nothing that veteran US grand strategist and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once remarked, “to be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”

ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Felix Livshitz is a journalist specialising in foreign affairs.


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