For a Peaceful and United Korea

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Opeds
George Burchett

Kim Il Sung monument, Mt Paektu, DPRK. Photo George Burchett.


[dropcap]I [/dropcap]have watched live on TV all three meetings between Chairman Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump: the first one in Singapore on June 12, 2018, the second one in Hanoi (where I live) on 27-28 February 2019, and the last one at the DMZ on June 30, 2019.

All three meetings were moments of great hope and cause for cautious optimism.

But every time, I am also reminded of what President Kim Il Sung – Chairman Kim Jong Un’s grandfather – told my father, Australian journalist Wilfred Burchett in Pyongyang, when they first met there in May 1967. This is how my father relates it in his book Again Korea:

“Come and visit us again,” said my host. “Bring your wife and have a good holiday here. But I advise you to come soon if you want to see our country as it is now.” He waved his hand toward the window which looked out on a broad, tree-lined boulevard of shining new apartment houses and shops. “It is possible that all this will be destroyed if war breaks out. I say to my comrades that they should not think they can keep our nice theaters and things as they are now; they must realize that as long as imperialism exists, war may break out again. Especially as long as the unification of our country has not been achieved, things may be destroyed again.” My host was Premier Kim II Sung of North Korea, the place Pyongyang, the date May 20, 1967. (Wilfred Burchett, Again Korea, 1969)

I note that President Kim Il Sung didn’t specify which “imperialism” when he warned “that as long as imperialism exists, war may break out again”. He was well placed to know a thing or two about imperialism, having successfully fought Japanese imperialists occupying Korea and Yankee imperialists and their lackeys trying to annihilate North Korea, occupying South Korea and keeping the Korean Peninsula divided to this day.

From the rubble left by the Korean War, the people of the DPRK, under the leadership of President Kim Il Sung, built an advanced and prosperous socialist state. Since its inception, that socialist state, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, has had US nuclear weapons pointed at it from the South and has been under constant threat of annihilation. Let’s not forget that prior to the historic Singapore meeting, Donald Trump was also threatening North Korea with “fire and fury” if it didn’t comply with US diktats.

On 13 April 2012, together with delegates from many countries, I had the privilege of visiting Mount Paektu, on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary of President Kim Il Sung’s birth. The scenery is breathtaking. To make it even more dramatic, we were treated to a real snow storm, to remind us of the extraordinarily harsh conditions under which President Kim Il Sung and his companions fought their heroic war or resistance against Japanese imperialists and their local collaborators.

Two days later, on 15 April 2012, I was on Kim Il Sung Square watching the military parade to celebrate the 100th Anniversary of President Kim Il Sung’s birth. I was standing next to our interpreter, the diminutive and always elegant Miss Liu. She had told me earlier that she had done her military service with an artillery unit. As the big guns were paraded before us, I kept asking her: Were you with this unit? Finally some really, really big guns appeared and I asked her again: These ones? And she said: Yes! Which makes me wonder, how many Miss Lius are ready to man those big guns in defense of their socialist motherland, inspired by the heroic example of the generation of revolutionaries led by President Kim Il Sung?

On that same occasion, Chairman Kim Jong Un made his first public speech. It was a moment of great and palpable emotion for the people gathered at the square and, no doubt, for all North Koreans, who for the first time heard the voice of their young new leader.

Today, Chairman Kim Jong Un is hailed even by the President of the United States of America as a great and wise leader of his people and a personal friend. Who would have believed that back in 2012? Not many, I’m sure.

I first visited the DPRK in September 2002 with my son Graham. We arrived from Sydney, Australia, where we were living at the time. I must confess that I was a little bit apprehensive. I had lived in Australia since 1985 and had had to endure an endless and sustained demonization campaign against my father, Wilfred Burchett. He was never forgiven by the Australian establishment and its media etc. enforcers for reporting the ceasefire talks to end the Korean War from the North Korean-Chinese side. Some still denounce him as a “moral traitor to western civilisation”. For good measure, he had also reported the Vietnam war from the “communist” side. Australia had fought in both wars alongside the US. But this is another story…

In 2002, when my son and I visited, the DPRK was emerging from a period of extreme hardship due to a combination of adverse factors. But when we were there, there was also great hope for normalising relations with the US and Japan. Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had visited the DPRK and had spoken favourably of Chairman Kim Jong Il. Japan’s Prime Minister Koizumi was also expected to visit Pyongyang to normalise relations between the two countries. President Kim Dae-jung of South Korea was pursuing his Sunshine Policy of détente with North Korea. Then George W Bush declared North Korea as part of his “axis of evil” and relations went into deep freeze again. A “deep freeze” that has lasted pretty much until the June 2018 historic summit between Chairman Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump.

So, three generations of DPRK leaders have had to confront “imperialism”: Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un.

Only President Kim Il Sung had to fight militarily Japanese and US imperialisms. He did so successfully, for all of Korea, North and South. One would hope that both imperialisms would draw some useful lessons from their defeats. But I’m afraid that remains hopeful thinking. If history teaches us anything, it is that imperialism feeds on war and destruction, like vampires feed on blood. Lenin wrote in 1917: imperialism is the highest stage of capitalism. And history proves him right.

Before concluding this essay I would like to quote again from my father’s book, Again Korea:

“Driving out homeward bound along the concrete highway leading to the airport, past Pyongyang’s gleaming buildings, the air heavy with the scent of acacia blossoms, admiring again the neat grey and white villages, the carefully tended fields already green with thickly planted rice, my thoughts could not but turn to Kim II Sung’s warning that it might all be destroyed again soon. I thought of the former head of America’s Strategic Air Command, General Curtis LeMay’s solution for Vietnam: “Let’s bomb ’em back into the Stone Age,” and realized how right Premier Kim is to prepare the country organizationally and psychologically for more destruction. But I also thought how wrong was LeMay. You can bomb the Vietnamese and Korean people underground, but you cannot bomb them back into the “Stone Age.” You cannot bomb out of existence those solid technical, intellectual and moral qualities they have acquired during the years of building and living under socialism. What stone age moralists such as LeMay would like to bomb out of existence is indestructible. If what has been built up in North Korea is destroyed again, the “abundant fruitful orchard” will grow faster than ever again. And the next time it will spread over the whole country.”

In 1992, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed “the end of history” and the triumph of free market “liberalism” over “collectivist” soviet-style state socialism. Almost three decades later, the DPRK proves him wrong. North Korea is still a proud socialist state that firmly stands its ground against threats from the self-proclaimed rulers of the world. Not only that, but suddenly “socialism” looks attractive again to Western societies facing increased economic hardship and inequality, social dysfunctionality, endless wars, terrorism and so on and on.

The world now looks at the DPRK with renewed respect. That respect is hard-earned thanks to the strong and wise leadership of President Kim Il Sung, Comrade Kim Jong Il and Chairman Kim Jong Un, who, in the most difficult circumstances, have been able to not only defend their country, but also guide it towards a bright and prosperous future.

All progressive and peace-loving people around the world can only sincerely wish that the near future will see Korea peacefully reunited and all Koreans joining forces to build a strong, proud, independent and prosperous Korea.

And if I may end on a personal note, I believe that only the people of Korea, by their common will and efforts can make that happen, despite every efforts by “imperialists” to keep them apart and in a constant state of conflict.

So all of us who support a united and peaceful Korea have a lot of work to do. There are now some glimmers of hope on the horizon, and we must make sure that the flame of hope keeps burning, brighter and brighter until it illuminates us all, like bright sunshine. This, I’m sure, would also be the wish of President Kim Il Sung and Comrade Kim Jong Il, who have past the baton to their grandson and son, Chairman Kim Jong Un, who only a few days ago, invited US President Donald Trump to step on North Korean territory, making him the first acting US president to step on North Korean soil. Let us hope that these few steps, lead to more firm steps towards Peace and Reunification.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR
George Burchett is an artist who lives in Hanoi.

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The Alternative Media Can Defeat the Mainstream Media – Here’s the Game Plan

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Ron Unz
TACTICS & STRATEGIES
This is a repost


This memo would make Saul Alinsky proud.


A couple of years ago, I launched my Unz Review, providing a wide range of different alternative perspectives, the vast majority of them totally excluded from the mainstream media. I’ve also published a number of articles in my own American Pravda series, focusing on the suspicious lapses and lacunae in our media narratives.

Texas cheeleader Norah O'Donnell, impersonating a journalist. There are no real journalist on the corporate media any more, if they ever were. It's all glitter, deception, and illusion.

They're an easy target

The underlying political strategy behind these efforts may already be apparent, and I’ve sometimes suggested it here and there. But I finally decided I might as well explicitly outline the reasoning in a memo as provided below.

The Mainstream Media is the Crucial Opposing Force

Groups advocating policies opposed by the American establishment should recognize that the greatest obstacle they face is usually the mainstream media.

Ordinary political and ideological opponents surely exist, but these are usually inspired, motivated, organized, and assisted by powerful media support, which also shapes the perceived framework of the conflict. In Clauswitzian terms, the media often constitutes the strategic “center of gravity” of the opposing forces.

The Media Should Be Made a Primary Target

If the media is the crucial force empowering the opposition, then it should be regarded as a primary target of any political strategy. So long as the media remains strong, success may be difficult, but if the influence and credibility of the media were substantially degraded, then the ordinary opposing forces would lose much of their effectiveness. In many respects, the media creates reality, so perhaps the most effective route toward changing reality runs through the media.

Discrediting the Media Anywhere Weakens It Everywhere

The mainstream media exists as a seamless whole, so weakening or discrediting the media in any particular area automatically reduces its influence everywhere else as well.

The elements of the media narrative faced by a particular anti-establishment group may be too strong and well-defended to attack effectively, and any such attacks might also be discounted as ideologically motivated. Hence, the more productive strategy may sometimes be an indirect one, attacking the media narrative elsewhere, at points where it is much weaker and less well-defended. In addition, winning those easier battles may generate greater credibility and momentum, which can then be applied to later attacks on more difficult fronts.

A Broad Alliance May Support the Common Goal of Weakening the Media

Once we recognize that weakening the media is a primary strategic goal, an obvious corollary is that other anti-establishment groups facing the same challenges become natural, if perhaps temporary, allies.

Such unexpected tactical alliances may drawn from across a wide range of different political and ideological perspectives—Left, Right, or otherwise—and despite the component groups having longer-term goals that are orthogonal or even conflicting. So long as all such elements in the coalition recognize that the hostile media is their most immediate adversary, they can cooperate on their common effort, while actually gaining additional credibility and attention by the very fact that they sharply disagree on so many other matters.

The media is enormously powerful and exercises control over a vast expanse of intellectual territory. But such ubiquitous influence also ensures that its local adversaries are therefore numerous and widespread, all being bitterly opposed to the hostile media they face on their own particular issues. By analogy, a large and powerful empire is frequently brought down by a broad alliance of many disparate rebellious factions, each having unrelated goals, which together overwhelm the imperial defenses by attacking simultaneously at multiple different locations.

A crucial aspect enabling such a rebel alliance is the typically narrow focus of each particular constituent member. Most groups or individuals opposing establishment positions tend to be ideologically zealous about one particular issue or perhaps a small handful, while being much less interested in others. Given the total suppression of their views at the hands of the mainstream media, any venue in which their unorthodox perspectives are provided reasonably fair and equal treatment rather than ridiculed and denigrated tends to inspire considerable enthusiasm and loyalty on their part. So although they may have quite conventional views on most other matters, causing them to regard contrary views with the same skepticism or unease as might anyone else, they will usually be willing to suppress their criticism at such wider heterodoxy so long as other members of their alliance are willing to return that favor on their own topics of primary interest.

Assault the Media Narrative Where It is Weak Not Where It Is Strong

Applying a different metaphor, the establishment media may be regarded as a great wall that excludes alternative perspectives from the public consciousness and thereby confines opinion to within a narrow range of acceptable views.

Certain portions of that media wall may be solid and vigorously defended by powerful vested interests, rendering assaults difficult. But other portions, perhaps older and more obscure, may have grown decrepit over time, with their defenders having drifted away. Breaching the wall at these weaker locations may be much easier, and once the barrier has been broken at several points, defending it at others becomes much more difficult.

For example, consider the consequences of demonstrating that the established media narrative is completely false on some major individual event. Once this result has been widely recognized, the credibility of the media on all other matters, even totally unrelated ones, would be somewhat attenuated. Ordinary people would naturally conclude that if the media had been so wrong for so long on one important point, it might also be wrong on others as well, and the powerful suspension of disbelief that provides the media its influence would become less powerful. Even those individuals who collectively form the corpus of the media might begin to entertain serious self-doubts regarding their previous certainties.

The crucial point is that such breakthroughs may be easiest to achieve in topics that seem merely of historical significance, and are totally removed from any practical present-day consequences.

Reframe Vulnerable “Conspiracy Theories” as Effective “Media Criticism”

Over the last few decades, the political establishment and its media allies have created a powerful intellectual defense against major criticism by investing considerable resources in stigmatizing the notion of so-called “conspiracy theories.” This harsh pejorative term is applied to any important analysis of events that sharply deviates from the officially-endorsed narrative, and implicitly suggests that the proponent is a disreputable fanatic, suffering from delusions, paranoia, or other forms of mental illness. Such ideological attacks often effectively destroy his credibility, allowing his actual arguments to be ignored. A once-innocuous phrase has become politically “weaponized.”

However, an effective means of circumventing this intellectual defense mechanism may be to adopt a meta-strategy of reframing such “conspiracy theories” as “media criticism.”

Under the usual parameters of public debate, challenges to established orthodoxy are treated as “extraordinary claims” that must be justified by extraordinary evidence. This requirement may be unfair, but it constitutes the reality in many public exchanges, based upon the framework provided by the allegedly impartial media.

Since most of these controversies involve a wide range of complex issues and ambiguous or disputed evidence, it is often extremely difficult to conclusively establish any unorthodox theory, say to a confidence level of 95% or 98%. Therefore, the media verdict is almost invariably “Case Not Proven” and the challengers are judged defeated and discredited, even if they actually appear to have the preponderance of evidence on their side. And if they vocally contest the unfairness of their situation, that exact response is then subsequently cited by the media as further proof of their fanaticism or paranoia.

However, suppose that an entirely different strategy were adopted. Instead of attempting to make a case “beyond any reasonable doubt,” proponents merely provide sufficient evidence and analysis to suggest that there is a 30% chance or a 50% chance or a 70% chance that the unorthodox theory is true. The very fact that no claim of near certainty is being advanced provides a powerful defense against any plausible accusations of fanaticism or delusional thinking. But if the issue is of enormous importance and—as is usually the case—the unorthodox theory has been almost totally ignored by the media, despite apparently having at least a reasonable chance of being true, then the media may be effectively attacked and ridiculed for its laziness and incompetence. These charges are very difficult to refute and since no claim is being made that the unorthodox theory has necessarily been proven correct, merely that it might possibly be correct, any counter-accusations of conspiratorial tendencies would fall flat.

Indeed, the only means the media might have of effectively rebutting those charges would be to explore all the complex details of the issue (thereby helping to bring various controversial facts themselves to much wider attention) and then argue that there is only a negligible chance that the theory might be correct, perhaps 10% or less. Thus, the usual presumptive burden is completely reversed. And since most members of the media are unlikely to have ever paid much serious attention to the subject, their ignorant presentation may be quite weak and vulnerable to a knowledgeable deconstruction. Indeed, the most likely scenario is that the media will just continue to totally ignore the entire dispute, thereby reinforcing those plausible accusations of laziness and incompetence.

Individuals distressed by media failings on a controversial topic often accuse the media and its individual representatives of being biased, corrupted, or quietly under the control of powerful forces allied with the establishment position. These charges may sometimes be correct and sometimes not, but they are usually quite difficult to prove, except in the minds of existing true-believers, and they do carry the taint of “paranoia.” On the other hand, claiming that media failings are due to venial sins such as laziness and incompetence are just as likely to be correct, and these charges are much less likely to risk a backlash.

Finally, once the media itself has become the primary target of the criticism, it automatically loses its status as a neutral outside arbitrator and no longer has as much credibility in proclaiming the winning side of the debate.

The Advantage of Flooding Media Defense Zones

Individuals who challenge the prevailing media narrative with unorthodox claims are often reluctant to raise too many such controversial claims simultaneously lest they be ridiculed as “crazy,” with all their views summarily dismissed.

In most cases, this may be the correct strategy to pursue, but if handled properly, an exact opposite approach might sometimes be quite effective. So long as the overall presentation is framed as media criticism and no inordinate weight is attached to the validity of any of the particular claims being presented, attacking along a very broad front, perhaps including dozens of entirely independent items, may “flood the zone” of the media, saturating and overwhelming existing defenses. Or as suggested in a quote widely misattributed to Stalin, “Quantity has a quality all its own.”

Consider the example of entertainer Bill Cosby. Over the years, one or two individual women had come forward claiming that he had drugged and raped them, and the charges had been largely ignored as unsubstantiated or implausible. However, over the last year or two, the dam suddenly burst and a total of nearly sixty separate women came forward, all making identical accusations, and although there seems little hard evidence in any of the particular cases, virtually every observer now concedes that the charges are likely to be true.

Suppose it is established that there is a reasonable likelihood that the media completely missed and ignored an important matter that should have been investigated and reported. The impact is not necessarily substantial, and many individuals stubbornly wedded to a belief in their establishment media narratives might even resist admitting the possibility that the media had seriously erred in that particular situation.

However, suppose instead that several dozen such separate examples could be established, each strongly suggesting a serious error or omission on the part of the media. At that point, ideological defenses would crumble and nearly everyone would quietly acknowledge that many, perhaps even most, of the accusations were probably true, producing an enormous credibility gap for the mainstream media. The credibility defenses of the media would have been saturated and overcome.

The key point is that all of the particular items should be presented as reasonable-likelihood cases, and indicative of media shortcomings rather than being proven or necessarily as important issues in and of themselves. By remaining aloof and somewhat agnostic regarding any individual item, there is little risk of being tagged as fanatic or monomaniacal for raising a multitude of them.

My American Pravda Series and Unz Review Webzine as Examples

The political/media strategy outlined above was the central motivation behind my American Pravda articles and Unz Review webzine.

For example, in the original 2013 American Pravda article I raised over half a dozen enormous media lapses, all of them now universally acknowledged: Enron’s collapse, the Iraq War WMDs, the Madoff Swindle, the Cold War spies, and various others. Having thereby set the stage by presenting this admitted pattern of major failure, demonstrating that a considerable suspension of disbelief was warranted, I then extended the discussion to three or four important additional examples, none of them yet acknowledged, but all of them perfectly plausible. Perhaps as a consequence, the article received reasonably good attention including by elements of the mainstream media itself, who are often willing to acknowledge the errors of their class so long as these are presented persuasively and in a responsible manner.

Following that piece, I intermittently produced additional elements in the series, some more comprehensive than others, and am now embarking upon a regular series.

The McCain/POW examples in the series perfectly illustrate the strategy I have suggested above. The Vietnam War ended over forty years ago, the POWs have probably all been dead for decades, and even John McCain is in the very twilight of his career. The practical significance of raising the scandal or providing evidence establishing its likelihood is virtually nil. But if it were to become widely recognized that our entire media successfully covered up such a massive scandal for so many years, the credibility of the media would have suffered a devastating blow. Several such blows and it would be in ruins. Meanwhile, the powerful vested interests that once so vigorously maintained the official narrative in that area are long gone, and the orthodox case has few remaining defenders in the media, greatly increasing the likelihood of an eventual breakthrough and victory.

A similar strategy in broader form is applied by my Unz Review alternative media webzine, which hosts numerous different writers, columnists, and bloggers, all tending to sharply challenge the establishment media narrative along a wide variety of different axes and issues, some of them conflicting. By raising serious doubts about the omissions and errors of our mainstream media in so many different areas, the goal is to weaken the perceived credibility of the media, leading readers to consider the possibility that large elements of the conventional narrative may be entirely incorrect.


Source: The Unz Review

This article was originally published in October 2016 at the Unz Review.



About the Author

The author is the founder and editor of the Unz Review, a conservative American political website, an entrepreneur, and a one-time candidate for the governor of California.


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With Pakistan’s prime minister at his side, Trump threatens to wipe Afghanistan “off the face of the Earth”

Another important dispatch from The Greanville Post. Be sure to share it widely.


This essay is part of our special series on disgusting imperialists

Sampath Perera and Keith Jones


US President Donald Trump threatened to “kill 10 million” Afghans in “a week” so as to win a quick victory in America’s longest war, at a joint White House press conference Monday with Imran Khan, Pakistan's prime minister.

The US Commander-in-Chief cavalierly boasted that he could wipe Afghanistan “off the face of the Earth” if he wanted. But he said that he prefers to “extricate” the US from the eighteen-year-long Afghan War and expects Pakistan to facilitate this by helping secure a “settlement” with the Taliban.

The “Mother of all bombs” dropped in Afghanistan


“We’re like policemen,” Trump claimed. “We’re not fighting a war. If we wanted to fight a war in Afghanistan and win it, I could win it in a week. I just don’t want to kill 10 million people.”

To underscore that his remarks were meant as a threat, Trump added, “I have a plan to win that war in a very short period of time” and repeated the figure of 10 million dead. He then turned toward Khan and declared, “You understand that better than anybody.”

Pakistan's prime minister voiced no objection to Trump's threat to unleash genocidal violence against Pakistan's northern neighbor. Instead Khan slavishly hailed the US president as the head of the “most powerful country in the world.” Later, he issued an obsequious tweet thanking Trump “for his warm & gracious hospitality” and “his wonderful way of putting our entire delegation at ease.”

The US puppet regime in Kabul was forced to call for a “clarification” of Trump’s remarks, while feebly protesting that “foreign heads of state cannot determine Afghanistan’s fate in the absence of the Afghan leadership.” In contrast, people across Afghanistan reacted with horror and outrage, sentiments shared by tens of millions around the world.

The US media downplayed Trump’s bloodcurdling remarks. The New York Times buried mention of them at the end of an article titled, “Trump Tries Cooling Tensions With Pakistan to Speed Afghan Peace Talks.”

Trump’s Monday remarks are only his latest threat to annihilate a foreign country and reveal that the US president—who has ordered a $1 trillion “modernization” of the US nuclear arsenal and the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia—is actively considering unleashing nuclear violence to forestall the collapse of US global hegemony.

In August 2017, Trump threatened to unleash “fire and fury like the world has never seen” against North Korea, an impoverished nation of 25 million people. In July 2018, he directed a similar threat again Iran, tweeting that it would “SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED”, if it “EVER” dared to “THREATEN” Washington “AGAIN.”

Trump's crude threats—which recall nothing so much as the menacing rants of Adolph Hitler in the run-up to the Second World War—are viewed as impolitic by much of the Washington elite. But the military-security apparatus and the US political establishment, Democratic and Republican alike, are unanimous in their support for using violence, aggression and war to offset US imperialism's economic decline.

The Afghan War is only one of an endless series of wars that the US has waged across the Middle East, in Central Asia, and the Balkans since 1991. Moreover, the drive for US global hegemony has now metastasized into strategic offensives, including threatening military deployments, trade wars and economic sanctions, against nuclear-armed Russia and China.

Whilst Afghanistan no doubt was at the center of the discussions that Khan, Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, and Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, the head of the country’s notorious intelligence agency, the ISI, held with Trump and senior officials in his administration, the US war drive against Iran—Pakistan's western neighbor—was no doubt also a factor in the decision to invite Pakistan's prime minister to Washington for the first time in five years.

Last month, US warplanes were just ten minutes away from unleashing bombs on Iran, when Trump called them back for fear that US forces were not sufficiently ready for a military conflict with Iran that would rapidly engulf the entire Middle East and potentially draw in other great powers.

Bowing to the US sanctions against Iran, which are themselves tantamount to war, Pakistan has once again put on ice plans for a pipeline to import Iranian natural gas. But the Pentagon and CIA will also be pressing Pakistan, which enjoys close ties to the virulently anti-Iranian Saudi monarchy, to use its territory as a staging ground for intrigues, if not military operations, against Iran.


US imperialism’s Afghan War debacle

Trump's claim that the US has not really waged war in Afghanistan is absurd. Over the course of the past 18 years, the US and its NATO allies have deployed hundreds of thousands of troops to Afghanistan, tanks and warplanes, unleashed horrific violence and committed countless atrocities. This includes, under the Trump administration, the dropping on Afghanistan in 2017 of the most powerful conventional or nonnuclear bomb ever deployed.

The war, according to conservative estimates, has resulted in 175,000 deaths. If indirect deaths are included, the figure is probably closer to one million. Millions more have been driven from their homes. To this toll, the deaths of nearly 2,300 US military personnel and 1,100 other foreign troops need to be added.

Yet today the Taliban controls large swathes of the country, more than at any time since the US invasion in the fall of 2001.

If the Taliban, despite their reactionary Islamist ideology, have been able to sustain their insurgency in the face of US firepower, it is because the war is widely recognized to be a neocolonial invasion, aimed at transforming Afghanistan into a US-NATO dependency and outpost in Central Asia; and the Kabul government to be a quisling regime, thoroughly corrupt and comprised of war profiteers, tribal leaders, and other sections of the traditional Afghan elite.

The Afghan debacle—Washington's failure to subjugate Afghanistan after 18 years of war and the expenditure of more than a trillion dollars—has produced major divisions within the US political and military-strategic establishments.

Trump is seeking to prod the Taliban into a political settlement that will allow the Pentagon to redeploy its resources to pursue aggression elsewhere, whether against Iran, Venezuela, or American imperialism's more substantial rivals.

However, much of America's ruling elite, especially in the military-security apparatus, argues that any settlement must ensure a continued military presence in Afghanistan. This is, first and foremost, because of its strategic significance: Afghanistan lies at the heart of energy-rich Central Asia, borders both Iran and China and is proximate to Russia.


The unraveling of US-Pakistan relations

Washington has long been demanding that Pakistan “do more” to place military and political pressure on the Taliban, so as to secure a settlement of the war on terms favorable to Washington.

Pakistan's military-security apparatus played a key role in the CIA's sponsoring of the Mujahideen guerilla insurgency in Afghanistan in the 1980s, as part of the US drive against the Soviet Union, and subsequently it supported the rise to power of its Taliban offshoot.

After Washington abandoned its own attempts to reach a deal with the Taliban regime and seized on the 9/11 events to establish a US foothold in Central Asia, Pakistan provided Washington with pivotal logistical support and subsequently waged a brutal counterinsurgency war against Taliban-aligned forces in its own Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

But the Pakistani military, drawing on the CIA playbook, was loathe to cut off all ties to the Taliban, so as to ensure that Islamabad had a say in any political settlement to end the war.

Washington's downgrading of its relations with Islamabad, and its promotion of India as its principal South Asian ally, with the aim of transforming it into a US frontline state against China, caused Islamabad to become even more anxious about securing its interests in Afghanistan, and to expand its longstanding military-security partnership with Beijing. This latter development—which is exemplified by the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor—has enormously aggravated tensions between Washington and Islamabad.

Over the past decade, and particularly since 2011, there has been an unravelling of US-Pakistani ties.

Khan, like his predecessor Nawaz Sharif, had long been pressing for an invitation to Washington, in an attempt to reset relations with the US. For both economic and geopolitical reasons, Islamabad is desperately hoping that it can find a way, as it did in the past, of balancing between China and the US.

Last month, the US-dominated IMF agreed to provide Pakistan with emergency loans. Islamabad has also been rattled by the support Washington has extended to the “surgical” military strikes New Delhi mounted in September 2016 and February of this year, bringing South Asia's rival nuclear-armed powers to the brink of war.

Whether Khan's US trip will in fact arrest the deterioration in US-Pakistani ties remains to be seen.

Trump resisted Khan’s entreaties for the immediate restoration of Afghan War Coalition payments and other aid, arrogantly declaring that relations between the two countries are better than “when we were paying that money.” He then suggested if Islamabad bows to Washington's diktats that could change, adding, “But all of that can come back, depending on what we work out.”

Trump did please Khan by saying that he “would love to be” a “mediator” or the “arbitrator” of the Indian-Pakistani conflict over Kashmir. For decades, Pakistan has sought to involve outside powers, especially Washington, in resolving its differences with New Delhi.

Trump's remarks, which included the claim that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had asked for the US to help broker a solution to the Kashmir dispute, immediately set off a political firestorm in India, with New Delhi angrily denying that Modi had ever made such a suggestion.

India's ruling elite is also perturbed that thus far it has been excluded from any role in the negotiations with the Taliban and discussions about a so-called political settlement of the Afghan war. But like Khan, Modi was entirely silent about Trump's threats to annihilate ten million Afghans, presumably through the use of nuclear weapons.


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PATRICK LAWRENCE: Brighter US-Iran Prospects

Another important dispatch from The Greanville Post. Be sure to share it widely.


This essay is part of our special series on disgusting imperialists
First published on Consortium News, a fraternal site sharing our goals of world peace and social justice for all

 Patrick Lawrence


Despite the seemingly escalating risks of war, last week also produced an unexpected drift toward the mahogany table.

Special to Consortium News

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]here was no shortage of alarming incidents in and around the Persian Gulf last week. But the risks of open conflict between Iran and the U.S. are easily misread. The prospects for substantive diplomacy between the two sides are steadily brightening, recent events notwithstanding. This represents an advance for President Donald Trump in his intramural battles with the assertive hawks among his foreign policy advisers. Still more significantly, Washington now appears to be discovering the limits of hard power in the 21stcentury.

Trump announced last Thursday that a U.S. naval vessel patrolling the Persian Gulf had downed an Iranian drone over international waters — a claim Tehran has rebutted with persuasive evidence. On Friday the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s navy briefly detained one British-owned tanker and continues to hold another while investigating alleged infractions of lawful conduct at sea — this in apparent retaliation for Britain’s earlier seizure of an Iranian tanker off Gibraltar.


Screengrabs from ABC News clip (see appendix), which, typically, fails to mention the Iranian action is a response to US/British piracy a few days earlier (TGP/YouTube)

It was a week of escalating tensions, as numerous press reports noted. Top British military officers warned Boris Johnson, who is likely to succeed Theresa May as prime minister on Tuesday, that he faces “a major international crisis” that could easily tip over into war.

There is always the possibility that a miscalculation on the ground or a commanding officer’s bout of bravado could spark a military confrontation. But setting this aside, the week delivered strong new indications that Trump and the leadership in Tehran are both now given to negotiating differences. In the best of outcomes, any such talks will be extended and all-encompassing.

"It is very unlikely Trump understands our moment for its historical import. But in his preference for deal-making over war-making, he stands on the right side of it by happenstance. Hard power has never been more plainly in eclipse. A long age draws slowly to a close, what violence there is to come notwithstanding..."

Iran Sends Diplomatic Signals

Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Javad Zarif, respectively Iran’s president and foreign minister, both signaled last week that Tehran is open to new talks under certain conditions. On the U.S. side, Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did roughly the same. “We are not looking for regime change. We are not looking for that at all,” Trump said Tuesday. “We’ll see what happens. But a lot of progress has been made.”

Two days after those remarks, Politico reported that Trump had accepted Sen. Rand Paul’s proposal, advanced during a round of golf the previous weekend, to represent the White House in talks with Iranian officials. The Kentucky senator is noted for his vigorous opposition to military adventures — a position in keeping with the president’s ostensible views. It is not clear who Paul might meet, or where and when any such encounter could take place. But Trump’s decision to accept Paul as his emissary is a savvy move to circumvent the hawks among his foreign policy advisers, chief among them National Security Advisor John Bolton, who has in the past called for regime change in Iran.

Bolton, often (but not always) with Pompeo’s support, has pressed for a highly confrontational Iran policy since he joined the administration last year. It now emerges that he played a leading role in conjuring the Gibraltar incident out of thin air, effectively using Britain as an unwitting tool to advance his hyper-hawkish Iran agenda.

The marked drift toward diplomacy last week represents an important, potentially decisive setback for Bolton and the White House’s hawkish factions. Washington’s hawks sustained another blow Saturday, when The New York Times published the astonishing remarks of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s former fire-breathing, often objectionable president who preceded Hassan Rouhani. “He is a businessman and therefore he is capable of calculating cost-benefits and making a decision,” the hardline Ahmadinejad said of Trump in an hour-long telephone interview with the Times. “We say to him, let’s calculate the long-term cost-benefit of our two nations and not be shortsighted.”

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, center: “Let’s not be shortsighted.” (Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)


Hardliner Split

There are two remarkable things to note in this unexpected turn in the direction of the mahogany table. It reveals a split among Iran’s conservative factions that was hitherto not apparent. If hard-liners are coming to favor negotiations with the U.S., it is plain which direction the wind blows in Tehran.

Second, it is notable that Ahmadinejad proposes a comprehensive settlement that advances bilateral relations beyond the 40 years of animosity that have followed the 1979 revolution deposing Iran’s last shah, who enjoyed extravagant American support over nearly three decades. The signal here is not to be missed: Military solutions to long-term crises are less and less effective in an era of emerging powers such as China, Russia and Iran.

There are two other prominent cases demonstrating this point. One is Afghanistan. After 18 years of pointless war, American diplomats have been in direct talks with the Taliban since last October. The latest round,  during which the two sides negotiated the withdrawal of U.S. troops, took place in Qatar last month.

The closer parallel is with North Korea. Kim Jong-un, the North’s leader, articulated Ahmadinejad’s point long before Iran’s former president spoke to the Times: It is time to close the door on a protracted period of animosity. The thought suggests a long view of history rarely evident among American political figures.

Prior to his first summit with Kim, Trump was the fire-breather. As he repeatedly threatened the North with obliteration, “fire and fury,” and much else, naval task forces and nuclear-capable bomber squadrons operated perilously close to the North’s territorial waters and airspace. But the mid–2018 summit in Singapore radically shifted the administration’s position. While Bolton and Pompeo sabotaged the second Trump–Kim summit, held in Hanoi last February, Trump continues to press for the top-down diplomacy he plainly favors, as his informal encounter with Kim last month at the 38th parallel attests.

Trump’s desire to negotiate with Pyongyang has prompted extensive opposition in Washington from the first.

‘Widening Bipartisan Support’

But this, too, now changes. In a startling piece published earlier this month, the Times reported that Trump now has “widening bipartisan support to build diplomacy with North Korea.” It went on to note that Stephen Biegun, Trump’s special representative for North Korea, was recently in Brussels and Berlin to cultivate diplomatic channels to Pyongyang.

Stephen Biegun taking questions in Seoul, Oct. 8, 2018. (State Department)


This remarkable shift appears to be nearly across the board — with the exception, of course, of über-hawkish camps such as Bolton’s. To underscore this point, the Times then quoted none other than Michael Morell, once the CIA’s acting director and since a consistent advocate of an aggressive U.S. military posture. “A negotiated solution is the only solution to this problem,” Morell said. “There isn’t a military option. There’s not a covert action option. So getting back to talks with the North Koreans is important, and I think that’s a good thing.”

It is an inevitable thing, too. In truth, military interventions in either Iran or North Korea have never been a realistic prospect. Pyongyang could launch missiles into Seoul in less than an hour; estimates of the troop strength required to invade Iran run from 100,000 to nearly 2 million. These are nickel-plated deterrents. The bluster in both cases has been hollow, the expensive deployments to the Persian Gulf and the waters off North Korea pointless.

It is very unlikely Trump understands our moment for its historical import. But in his preference for deal-making over war-making, he stands on the right side of it by happenstance. Hard power has never been more plainly in eclipse. A long age draws slowly to a close, what violence there is to come notwithstanding.


   APPENDIX

 


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Iran has intercontinental drones, will use them if necessary: Navy chief

Another important dispatch from The Greanville Post. Be sure to share it widely.


This essay is part of our special series on disgusting imperialists

PressTV reports:

This combination of image grabs created from a video broadcast by Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) on July 19, 2019 shows footage obtained from an IRGC drone flying above an aircraft carrier. Tehran has been forced to develope defensive and offensive technologies in orfder to maintain its hardwon sovereignty, so easily disrespected by imperialist powers. (Saker)

[dropcap]N[/dropcap]avy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi says Iran is in possession of intercontinental drones and will definitely put them to use if the need for a long-haul mission arises.

Elaborating on Iran’s drone capabilities in an interview with the Young Journalists Club (YJC) published on Tuesday, Khanzadi said the country monitors American ships in the Persian Gulf and has “complete images and a large archive of the daily and moment-by-moment movements” of the vessels belonging to the US and its allies.

“We can bravely declare that we observe all enemy ships, particularly Americans, point-by-point from their origin until the moment they enter the region,” he said, adding that Iran’s Armed Forces also possess information about the type of their missions and their conduct in the region.

Khanzadi also complained that enemy ships create “severe insecurity” by “aimless sailing and hypocritical behavior” in the region.

“Our drones monitor their ships and warships from their entry moment and the monitoring process continues until they sail into the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Their behavior in the Persian Gulf, which is part of our identity and our backyard, is fully under watch based on international law and aviation regulations,” he said.

Today, he added, Iran manufactures drones as a low-cost piece of military equipment to keep watch on the region.

Asked about UAVs for intercontinental missions, the Iranian Navy chief said, “Yes, now we have this type of drones and will definitely use them if necessary.”

He also slammed the UK’s seizure of Iranian-owned supertanker Grace 1 in the Strait of Gibraltar on June 4, adding that the era of “bullying” in the sea is over, and that the interests and sovereignty of all nations should be respected.

He further referred to the June 19 unsafe maneuver by the British-flagged Stena Impero tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which led to its detention by Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).

The British tanker, Khanzadi said, violated Iranian and International maritime law, entered the Strait of Hormuz from a busy exit lane, turned off its trackers, and had incomplete documents.

“Contrary to the Britons, the Iranian Armed Forces, including the Navy, acted within the Iran’s maritime law and international maritime rules” in the mutual ship detentions, he noted.

“The enemy observes us in some locations, but it is not capable of doing so some other places. The enemy should wait for a surprise from areas where it cannot see us,” he warned.


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About the author(s)
PressTV is an Iranian news organisation.

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