Putin and Iran Do a ‘Game Changer’

russianMissiles

[box] The dynamics of Russian foreign policy since the USA has forced a de facto declaration of war via financial and economic sanctions against Russia is impressive to put it mildly. Whether it will suffice to break the economic siege of Washington and open the way for a genuine global economic alternative to the bankrupt US Dollar System is not yet clear. What is clear is that Vladimir Putin and the faction of industrial barons who have decided to back him are not cowering in fear. The latest example is the recent visit of the Russian Defense Minister to Teheran, to do major military cooperation deals with Iran. The implications for both countries as well as the future of Eurasia are potentially huge. [/box]

[dropcap]O[/dropcap]n January 20 in Teheran, Russia and Iran signed an agreement on military cooperation. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Hossein Dehghan signed the new agreement. Remarking on its significance, Shoigu stated, “A theoretic base of cooperation in the military sphere has been created.” He added that the two countries have agreed on “bilateral cooperation in practical regards and to promote an increase in the military capabilities of the armed forces of our countries.” The two also agreed on “the importance of the need to develop Russia and Iran’s cooperation in the joint struggle against meddling in the affairs of the region by external forces that are not part of it was framed,” Iranian Defense Minister Dehghan declared. To make sure no one mistook who he meant, he added that the reason for aggravation in the situation of the region was a US policy that “meddles in the domestic affairs of other countries.”

The coming closer of the two Eurasian countries, both bordering the strategic Caspian Sea, has enormous implications for global geopolitics. The Obama Administration has tried to woo Iran in a stick (economic sanctions) and carrot (promise of lifting same) manner over the past eighteen months to get Teheran to agree major concessions on her nuclear program. Until recently, despite US sanctions over Ukraine, Russia was willing to show “good faith” to Washington by participating in the 5-1 nuclear negotiations with Iran to persuade Teheran to make major concessions on its nuclear program, one where Russia built the just-completed Bushehr nuclear power plant, the first in the Middle East. That phase is clearly over and Iran’s hand in the negotiations with the US, France, Germany, UK has just got stronger, sanctions or not.

Iran, Syria and Pipeline Wars

For Washington, the nuclear pressure is part of an attempt to force Iran to abandon her ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, in order to open the way for Qatar, a close ally of Saudi Arabia and site of the world’s largest natural gas field in the Persian Gulf. Qatar, which has been the prime funder of the US and Israeli-trained ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq, wants to export its gas to the EU via Syria and Turkey.

Iran, which holds the other part of that huge Persian Gulf gas field, North Pars, in its offshore waters, signed a strategic pipeline deal with Assad and Iraq in June 2011 to build a new Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline for 1500 kilometers from their chunk of the world’s largest gas field going from Asaluyeh, the Iranian port near the South Pars gas field, to Damascus in Syria. From there the pipeline would go via Lebanon to the eastern Mediterranean and on to the huge EU gas market. They named it the “Islamic Pipeline.”

The volume of Iran gas would be modest compared to Russia’s Gazprom original South Stream pipeline. An estimated 20 billion cubic meters per year would remain after local consumption requirements (pre-Syria war) from that Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, for Europe, compared to the 63 billion from the South Stream.

BARsusan_rice

Arch Neocon Susan Rice is one of the criminals responsible for the constant wars in the Mideast and elsewhere. She and her ilk are a danger to all of humanity.   (Credit: DonkeyHotey, flickr)

Qatar would be the loser. Qatar, a Sunni Islam country that finances ISIS as well as the Muslim Brotherhood and other such charming Jihadists, doesn’t like the idea. Qatar approached Assad in 2009 to propose a Qatar-Syria pipeline to the EU via Turkey but was turned down flat. Assad said his relations with Russia and Gazprom were more important. It was just at the time of the Iran-Iraq-Syria Islamic Pipeline signing in June 2011 that Washington, Saudi Arabia and Qatar decided to launch a full-scale war to topple Assad and replace him with a Sunni regime friendly to Qatar and Washington. Hardly a coincidence.

Closer Iran-Russia military ties

Today, Putin’s Russia and Iran are the two steadfast allies of Syria’s Assad in his war to rid Syria of US-trained ISIS terrorists. However, the collaboration between Moscow and Teheran has been cautious until now.

In 2010 when he was President responsible for Russian foreign and defense policies under the Constitution, Dmitry Medvedev made many conciliatory moves to get on Washington’s “good side.” That was the era of Hillary Clinton’s silly “reset” in US-Russia relations after Putin then had left and Obama was newly-inaugurated as a “peace Democrat.”

One of the most costly moves Medvedev made was his signing a Presidential decree in September 2010 to support a US-sponsored UN ban on sales of all weapons to Iran as part of US sanctions against Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. The ban cost Russian military industries as much as $13 billion in military-technical sales to Iran over the past several years according to an estimate by the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT).

Medvedev’s decree banned all military sales from Russia to Iran and included the transfer of weapons to Iran from outside the borders of Russia by aircraft or vessels operating under the Russian state flag.

Medvedev also retroactively annulled Iran’s pre-paid purchase of sophisticated Russian S-300 Surface to Air SAM missile systems (See image above). Iran then sued Russia’s state Rosoboronexport at the OSCE Court of Conciliation and Arbitration in Geneva.

To date the S-300 issue had been a major bone of contention between Teheran and Moscow. Now, according to a report in DebkaFile.com, a website reportedly linked to Israeli intelligence, Russia has agreed not only to deliver the S-300 SAM missile systems Iran bought back in 2007. Russia will also deliver S-400 advanced missile systems to Iran. They quote the Iranian defense ministry, “The two countries have decided to settle the S-300s problem.” Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, a former Russian Defense Ministry official, added: “A step was taken in the direction of cooperation on the economy and arms technology, at least for such defensive systems as the S-300 and S-400.”

Military specialists say the S-400 is vastly superior to the US PAC-3 Patriot missile. It’s believed to be the first system in the world that can selectively use several types of missiles, both previously developed SAMs and the new, unique SAMs. It is mobile, making detection difficult. It can target Strategic bombers such as the B-1, FB-111 and B-52H; Electronic warfare airplanes such as the EF-111A and EA-6; Reconnaissance airplanes such as the TR-1; Early-warning radar airplanes such as the E-3A and E-2C; Fighter airplanes such as the F-15, F-16; Stealth airplanes such as the B-2 and F-117A; Strategic cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk; Ballistic missiles in a range up to 3,500 km.

Furthermore, the Pentagon’s most colossal weapon boondoggle to date, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, was not designed to penetrate the coverage of the S-300P/S-400 systems. Oops…

The US F-35 is a nuclear-capable weapon of mass destruction, supposed to be the “fighter of the future” when it was begun in 2001 in the Rumsfeld Pentagon days. It’s a decade overdue, 100% over budget, and expected to cost $1.5 trillion over its useful life, of which about $400 billion has already been spent. Obama’s mandatory defense cuts under “sequestration” took a knife to the F-35 plans and other Pentagon pork barrel projects only two years ago. Now, using ISIS in Syria and Iraq and the “conflict” in Ukraine with Russia, Obama’s latest Defense Budget calls for exceeding by $35 billion the mandatory across-the-board reductions of sequestration. The Ukraine and ISIS crises seem to have rescued the US military industrial complex in the nick of time…

If the DebkaFile report about S-400 missile system to Iran is true, and it certainly seems to be, then the geopolitics of the entire battle between the Obama Administration and Russia and Iran and Syria, and soon China, is indeed very stupid.

The battle is being led by tunnel-vision warhawks around President Obama such as NSC Adviser Susan Rice. They seem incapable of grasping connections between events, and are, thus, by definition, not intelligent people. It is being led by the US military industrial complex, prominently by Lockheed Martin, main contractor of the disastrous F-35. It is being led by a very rich, power-addicted Oligarchy that somehow thinks they own the world. In fact, as recent events testify, they are losing the world they thought they controlled by their stupidity. Some call it the law of unintended consequences.


 

[box] F. William Engdahl is an strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
First appeared: 
http://journal-neo.org/2015/02/22/putin-and-iran-do-a-game-changer/
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Why the Western Media Pushes for War on Russia

Operation Get Putin


Yea. He is a big problem. But to whom? This TIME cover exemplifies a classical instance of “hostile framing” by the American media and its numerous cohorts.

Yea. He is a big problem. But to whom? Not to the people.

by BRIAN CLOUGHLEY

Voutenay sur Cure, France.
COUNTERPUNCH

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he US war on Iraq began on March 20, 2003 and six weeks before that catastrophic conflict which has had such terrible consequences for the entire world Republican Congressman Joe Wilson showered praise on a newspaper for its weighty support of his president’s determination to invade a country that had done no harm to the United States.

Mr Wilson declared he “would like to call attention to an excellent editorial in today’s Washington Post, written by the newspaper’s editorial staff. They have presented a definitive summary of why we must act to disarm Iraq in preserving the safety of Americans.”  And there then arose overwhelming national support for what the WP called “justified military intervention.”  The paper carried 27 editorials supporting war on Iraq before the ‘Shock and Awe’ onslaught began destruction of the country.  In a mist of majestic inanity its leader of February 5, 2003 declared that

a war in Iraq would not be primarily a humanitarian exercise but an operation essential to American security.

Next day one of the WP’s columnists, Richard Cohen, wrote acerbically that

Iraq not only hasn’t accounted for its weapons of mass destruction but without a doubt still retains them. Only a fool — or possibly a Frenchman — could conclude otherwise.

Only a columnist with the intelligence quotient of a mentally challenged crustacean would have ventured such judgment, but his views were greeted with enthusiasm verging on veneration. Similar balanced analyses by Washington Post gurus continue to appear today and many are quite as propaganda-intense as those that advocated  the calamitous war on Iraq, the failed military campaign in Afghanistan and the destruction of Libya.

In 2015 the western ‘mainstream’ media has sharply increased its campaign against Russia and President Putin.  The Post joined in at the head of the race and went off the planet in its editorial on February 2 by pronouncing that Putin “is attempting to win what he regards as a war against NATO and upend the post-Cold War order in Europe. He will stop only if the cost to his regime is sharply raised — and quickly.”

Richard Cohen (Washington Post)

Richard Cohen (Washington Post)

This was yet another recommendation that the US should prepare for conflict. The Post is seeking escalation of the already serious confrontation with Russia that the US-dominated NATO alliance has brought to boiling point.  The great danger is that this increasingly belligerent stance could result in war in Europe and even destruction of the planet that the Washington Post quit some time ago. Its anti-Russia propaganda campaign is reaching depths that one might have thought had been excessively plumbed in its anti-Iraq fiasco.

BELOW: South Carolina's Congressman Joe Wilson (R), always ready to serve the Empre's criminal ends. This is the kind of vermin, absolutely typical of the American political class, that populates and contaminates all legislative institutions in the country. Some states, like South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, etc., specialize in sending such offal to Washington. 

South Carolina’s Congressman Joe Wilson (R), always ready to serve the Empre’s criminal ends. A vermin typical of the American political class. Some states, like South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, etc., specialize in sending such offal to Washington.

Its tactics are mirrored elsewhere, and one pathetic but spiteful anti-Russia antic conjured up by some western media was to publicize “the pseudonym used by one of the Russian president’s daughters to stay out of the spotlight.”

It is regarded as unusual or even bizarre by the likes of Britain’s pitiful Telegraph newspaper (a pale shadow of its former accomplished self) that President Putin “is so secretive about his family that most Russians have no idea what his daughters look like.”  All the media that headlined the “news” about Putin’s daughter used the same wording in repeating the disclosure that a Russian media organization had “found Putin’s daughter in the Scientific Council of Moscow State University.”   This was regarded by the west’s celeb-fixated media outlets as being top-notch news, and they expanded on the meagre Facebook-based unsubstantiated trivia by announcing breathlessly that Putin “has made his and his family’s private life little less than a state secret.”

Putin is considered peculiar, mysterious and devious for “keeping his rarely-photographed daughters Yekaterina, 28, and Maria, 29, out of sight and managing his divorce with the minimum fuss.”  Shock horror.  This is decidedly non-Western and therefore a matter of grave concern to all and especially to such outlets as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), an anti-Russia propaganda orifice funded by the US Congress to the tune of 90 million dollars a year.

RFE/RL was owned and financed by the CIA until its cover was blown by Ramparts magazine way back, but then Congress took over directly and intends to keep  paying up until “a particular nation has clearly demonstrated the successful establishment and consolidation of democratic rule.” The “particular nation” is of course Russia which to the confused minds of America’s legislators is more welcome as an enemy than the friend it could so easily be.

This third-rate media conglomerate, backed to its expensive hilt by the US Congress, remains a primary means whereby the US and NATO can spread propaganda portraying Russia in as bad a light as can be cast.  It rarely broadcasts anything even-handed:  there is always a twist, a slant, a skillful arrangement of not-quite-whole-truth that would be the envy of the propaganda masters of Hitler’s Reich.  Most other western media, so far as can be judged, is not quite so forthright in outright propaganda — but there is decided skill in its malevolent manipulation of “news” in order to catch the anti-Russia gale being propelled by Washington.

One recent example of skewed reporting was the treatment of  Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko’s claim that Russia had 9,000 troops in eastern Ukraine along with “500 tanks, heavy artillery, and armored personnel carriers.”  In Sun King style he commanded there be withdrawal of “all the foreign troops from my territory.”

Gen. Viktor Muzhenko.

Gen. Viktor Muzhenko. He might have been talking into a media vacuum.

This was out-and-out nonsense.  He had made a totally absurd allegation. It took the Chief of Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, General Viktor Muzhenko, to clarify matters.  He said on January 29 that  the “Ukrainian army is not fighting with the regular units of the Russian army.”  He made it clear that his soldiers are fighting against irregulars who “are members of illegal armed groups.”  This was straight talking by Ukraine’s most senior soldier, but it didn’t receive one line in any western newspaper.  There was not a word of his statement publicized in Europe or America.  So far as the public in the west is concerned the absurd allegation by Poroshenko is valid.


Vile insidiousness and hypocrisy characterize all US propaganda. “There is always a twist, a slant, a skillful arrangement of not-quite-whole-truth that would be the envy of the propaganda masters of Hitler’s Reich.”


Then there is the arrest and highly-publicized prosecution of an alleged Russian spy in New York.  This is such a contrived farce that it should be ignored except to observe that the unfortunate man concerned faces the full onslaught of sanctimonious anti-Russian self-righteousness that will ensure a hefty sentence, no matter what defense may be mounted.

On the other side of the Atlantic there is the much meatier and curious case in London of the former Soviet spy Alexander Litvinenko who was murdered there in 2006.  He had been in the employ of Britain’s amateur secret service, MI6, so naturally successive British governments did nothing about the matter and in 2013 the BBC reported that “UK government ministers rule out a public inquiry into Mr Litvinenko’s death, saying an inquest would be an effective investigation into his death [seven years previously].”  But the following year,  when the US and NATO decided to intensify their squaring up to Russia,  the BBC reported that “a public inquiry into Mr Litvinenko’s death [has been] announced by UK Home Secretary Theresa May.”

It was intriguing that there should be such a change in the British government’s moral and political direction, but in January 2015 the inquiry swung into maximum publicity mode, revealing among other trivial gossip that “Vladimir Putin was a pen-pusher who lacked the experience and expertise of hardened KGB officers who had undertaken tough missions in the field.”  Trifling nonsense, of course (and the opinion of such as Chancellor Angela Merkel would be interesting concerning that particular allegation about Putin’s service in former West Germany), but it all contributes to the richly unsavory broth of anti-Russian propaganda that is being fed by western intelligence agencies to their tame and unquestioning puppets throughout the media of the west.

It was headlined by the UK’s Daily Express on February 1 that a Russian aircraft had been carrying a nuclear weapon as it flew “close” to British airspace. The report contained such absurdities as “the missile was not armed, and the aircraft’s crew would have required a direct order from President Putin before making it live” and “one senior RAF source said . . . we also knew from another source that one of the aircraft was carrying a nuclear weapon long before it came anywhere near UK airspace.”  While this is garbage, and although the Express is a joke newspaper run by a vulgar porn merchant and has no credibility among intelligent people the fact remains that it is a hoop-la conduit with some influence, and part of the bundle of media that is being fed scraps of  misinformation that contribute to a swell of western feeling against the contrived new bogey in the east — the empire of the dreaded Vlad the Prevailer.

There is one admirable exception to this western media humbug.  Stand forth the honorable Stars and Stripes, the newspaper of the US armed forces which on February 13 published a balanced piece by Steven Hurst of Associated Press in which he stated that

Since the Soviet collapse — as Moscow had feared — [the NATO] alliance has spread eastward, expanding along a line from Estonia in the north to Romania and Bulgaria in the south. The Kremlin claims it had Western assurances that would not happen. Now, Moscow’s only buffers to a complete NATO encirclement on its western border are Finland, Belarus and Ukraine. The Kremlin would not have to be paranoid to look at that map with concern.

How true.  But balance is not the specialty of the Washington Post — as we remember only too well  from its emotional advice concerning the US-NATO war on the Libyan government in 2011.

Libya has now been destroyed as a country.  It is a catastrophic shambles in which groups of barbaric Islamic extremists are gaining ground and expanding their venomous influence. This has come about as a result of the civil war encouraged by the US and NATO which wanted rebels to overthrow the country’s leader, the nutty but indubitably unifying Moammar Gaddafi who had hinted at nationalization of the country’s oilfields. They were energetically supported by the Washington Post which on May 3, 2011 declared that “For the record, we think targeting Mr Gaddafi and his sons — if that is what is really going on — is as legitimate as striking al-Qaeda. The Libyan leader presides over military units that are intentionally targeting civilians.”

What the WP’s editorial board didn’t know was that on April 30 a US missile had killed one of Gaddafi’s sons and three of his grandchildren in what NATO called a “precision strike” against a “military command and control building.”  The US and its NATO brothers in blitz claimed that their 9,685 air strikes caused not one civilian death,  and their bombing and missile campaign against the Libyan government was deemed successful,  with the WP editorial board observing in July that “the Benghazi-based [rebel] administration has shown itself to be moderate and responsible, and it has committed itself repeatedly to an agenda of democracy and personal freedoms. Access to funds will make it more stable and more prepared to take charge of the country when the Gaddafi regime finally goes.”

Gaddafi was murdered by US-supported insurgents on October 20, 2011 and the country was declared free and was doomed to disaster.  The Washington Post had once again supported a war which had calamitous results, as it had to acknowledge on February 5, 2015 when it reported a “growing threat from militant groups that operate with near impunity in Libya” where “the country’s post-Gadhafi transition has collapsed.”  So much for the embrace of “democracy and personal freedoms.”

The trouble is that this time round, while the WP continues to fulminate against Russia, the prescient Editorial Board so admired by Congressman Joe Wilson and the correspondingly clairvoyant columnists like Richard (“only a fool — or possibly a Frenchman”) Cohen, have not taken into account the fact that they are helping to whip up a campaign of contumely against a proud country that just might reject their government’s energetic attempts to destroy its economy and topple its leader.

Indeed, Russia might reject the US-led western campaign against it quite energetically, to the point of becoming so fed up with unending provocations that it could take action.

And the problem for all of us out here in the real world, far from Planet WeePee, is that the WP Editorial Board might not be around, next time, to explain why it was so wrong.  Because we might not be around, either, thanks to the desire of Washington to eradicate Vladimir Putin.

[box] Brian Cloughley lives in France. [/box]

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Hollywood Heroism in the Age of Empire: From “Citizenfour” and “Selma” to “American Sniper”

Henry A. Giroux


edSnowden.jaredRodriguez.flickr

Also see: The Public Intellectual: Henry A. Giroux

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he United States’ addiction to violence is partly evident in the heroes it chooses to glorify. Within the last few months, three films appeared that offer role models, however flawed, to young people while legitimating particular notions of civic courage, patriotism and a broader understanding of injustice. I am less concerned in this inquiry with the historical accuracy or artistic merits of the films than with the identifications they mobilize and the narratives they unfold about valor – still a solely masculine trait in Hollywood.

Citizenfour is a deeply moving film about former NSA intelligence analyst and whistleblower Edward Snowden and his admirable willingness to sacrifice his life in order to reveal the dangerous workings of an authoritarian surveillance state. It also points to the courageous role of journalists such as Glenn Greenwald, Laura Poitras and Julian Assange. These are the brave journalists and cultural workers who occupy the alternative media, refusing to become embedded within the safe parameters of established powers and fiercely challenging the death-dealing war-surveillance machine Snowden reveals both in the film and in later revelations published by The Guardian, Salon and The Washington Post, and later summed up in Greenwald’s book, No Place to Hide.

At one point in Citizenfour, whistleblower Snowden makes clear that his revelations carry extraordinary political weight, particularly when he states that the United States is “building the biggest weapon for oppression in the history of mankind” – this despite the lies and denials of the government and politicians on both sides of the ideological aisle. Snowden’s sense of political and moral indignation is captured in his belief that the United States had crossed over into a totalitarian politics that it now shares with the infamous Stasi, the ruthless and feared official state security service of the former German Democratic Republic. According to Snowden, the United States has morphed into a colossal digital update of the Stasi, and has fully retreated from any notion of democratic values and social responsibility. As the surveillance state grows, the United States is increasingly obsessed “by a creepy intoxication with what is now technically possible, combined with politicians’ age-old infatuation with bullying, snooping and creating mountains of bureaucratic prestige for themselves at the expense of the snooped-upon taxpayer.” (1)

Moral and political courage is in short supply these days and rarely represented in any form in the Hollywood celluloid universe.

In the documentary, Snowden comes across as a remarkable young man who shines like a bright meteor racing across the darkness. He is calm, unpossessing and almost nerdy in his demeanor, appearing utterly reasonable and believable. In many ways, despite some political shortcomings and omissions in the film, Snowden embodies the best of what US leadership has to offer given his selflessness, moral integrity and fierce commitment to both renounce injustice and to do something about it. But the film is not without its flaws. By omission it leaves out the countless additional acts of heroism of other whistleblowers and in doing so erases the crucial role that WikiLeaks, Julian Assange and Sarah Harrison played in providing the conditions for Snowden’s eventual escape to a safe haven. The film comes close to decontextualizing Snowden’s actions in light of the erasure of the mounting acts of resistance against government surveillance and state violence that have been intensified since the end of the Vietnam War. (2)

Snowden comes across as a nice guy, a poster boy for the liberal press when in actuality he is a radical in the best sense of the term and is far from interested in simply reforming the empire. Moreover, the film adds to its own depoliticization by focusing exclusively on the whistleblower and not situating Snowden’s action within a broader context of struggle. As mentioned above, there is no reference to the crucial role of Jeremy Scahill, Julian Assange and WikiLeaks in revealing and challenging the various acts of spying, violence, widespread illegal surveillance and ruthless militarism at the heart of a number of authoritarian regimes, not to mention the corruption and crimes committed by the financial elite in a number of countries. At the same time, as important as these omissions are, what is compelling for me, despite the film’s shortcomings, is the incredible courage and commitment of a young man who is willing to risk his life in exposing the dark secrets of the deep state. Moral and political courage is in short supply these days and rarely represented in any form in the Hollywood celluloid universe.

Selma focuses on a three-month period in 1965 when Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and others organized and planned to challenge the racist power structure in Alabama by eventually marching from Selma to Montgomery as a nonviolent act of civil defiance in order to secure equal voting rights. The strength of the film lies in its attempts to reveal not only the moral and civic courage of King in his fight against poverty and racial oppression, but also the courage and deep ethical and political commitments of a range of incredibly brave men and women unwilling to live in a racist society and willing to put their bodies against the death-dealing machine of militarized state force (eerily anticipating Ferguson) in order to bring it to a halt. It is this representation, however limited, of civic courage, collective struggle and the violence at the heart of US history that redeems Selma. The film offers up not only a much needed form of moral witnessing, but also a politics of confrontation that serves as a counterpoint to the weak and compromising model of racial politics offered currently by the Obama administration. It is in this representation of collective courage, popular struggle and daring resistance against the exercise of visceral racist violence that Selma‘s oppositional narrative, however flawed, offers the possibility of a more complete understanding of valor and heroism in the interest of justice, and the educative nature of a politics in which nonviolence and vast social movements struggle for radical change. Selma may have buried a number of historical and political truths, but there is a kernel of visionary politics in the film waiting to be rescued.

Selma represents Hollywood’s attempt to rescue public memory, albeit as dozens of critics have already revealed, it’s a deeply flawed attempt. While the film provides a historical snapshot of a particular moment in the civil rights movement that offers a horrifying, visceral portrayal of a vicious and brutalizing racism, it compromises itself by distorting and underplaying the crucial role of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) in the movement. (3) Not only does it downplay the important role of James Forman in the movement, it also infantilizes his role in the events of Selma by depicting him as a petulant and immature young boy, when in fact at the time he was older than King. As is well known, the film also constructs a self-serving and disparaging image of President Johnson’s relationship with King, one that is completely at odds with the historical record. The film “depicts Johnson authorizing FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover to smear King and – as King himself suspected – try to drive him to suicide. It is a profoundly ugly moment.” (4) This is more than a gross distortion. As Glen Ford makes clear, it was “the Kennedy brothers who were the ones who authorized the bugging of Dr. King’s phones and office and hotel rooms.” (5)

Selma and Citizenfourinvoke the courage of men and some women who oppose the violence of the state in the interest of two distinct but intersecting forms of lawlessness, one marked by a brutalizing racism and the other marked by a suffocating practice of surveillance.

The liberal retreat into the fog of low intensity battles, a quick willingness to compromise rather than fight and the habit of ignoring embarrassing truths are also evident in the way in which Selma whitewashes history not only with regard to the role of SNCC and President Johnson in the civil rights movement, but also in the way in which King is portrayed as a kind of compromising liberal, surely a nod to legitimize the politics of President Barack Obama. This might also be viewed as a capitulation to the false purity of liberal political intentions, if not obsessions. Omissions of this sort add up to a kind of liberal amnesia evident in the fact that the actual journey of a more radical King is undermined by portraying him in the film as a pragmatist intent on compromising with the white power structure in order to get black people the right to vote and to ensure them a place in the electoral process. King was not a liberal and that may be why he was assassinated. Near the end of his life, King had developed into a full-fledged democratic socialist who was more than willing to connect the violence of war, militarism, poverty, inequality and racism with the scourge of a ruthless, punishing and dehumanizing capitalism. (6) I think that the movie critic Steven Rea is right in insisting that “Selmamay be flawed, even spurious at points. But in its larger portrait of a man of dignity, purpose, and courage” the film succeeds in making visible a courageous movement exhibiting the best of collective resistance and heroism in its quest for racial and economic justice. (7)

While Selma makes clear the viciousness of racism during this moment in the civil rights movement, the film echoes the liberal ideology that structures its politics. More specifically, Selma echoes Oprah Winfrey’s stripped down liberal ideology, which can only focus on individual agency at the expense of larger structural forces rooted in a racist capitalist state. After all, the fact that Selma was produced by Winfrey, who plays, unsurprisingly, the role of one of the most militant characters in the film, all but guarantees that any hint of a radical politics will constitute a present absence in the film. What most positive commentaries on the film fail to acknowledge is that any viable politics for addressing racism then and now in the United States will not come from Winfrey’s brand of celebrity liberalism or her Selma, but from the lessons learned from King’s eventual theoretical and political turn to repudiating a society bounded by militarism and racism on one side, and inequality and financial capital on the other. Selma offers no hint of such a struggle.

The third film to hit US theaters at about the same time as the other two is American Sniper, a war film about a young man who serves as a model for a kind of overconfident, unreflective patriotism and defense of an indefensible war. Chris Kyle, the subject of the film, is a Navy Seal who at the end of four tours of duty in Iraq is heralded a hero for killing more than 160 people there – the deadliest soldier in that military conflict. Out of that experience, he authored an autobiographical book that bears a problematic relationship to the film. For some critics, Kyle is a decent guy caught up in a war he was not prepared for, a war that strained his marriage and later became representative of a narrative only too familiar for many veterans who suffered a great deal of anguish and mental stress as a result of their wartime experiences. This is a made-for-CNN narrative that deals in only partial truths. Other critics have labeled the film as a “piece of myth-making and nationalistic war porn.” (8)

A more convincing assessment and certainly one that has turned the film into a Hollywood blockbuster is that Kyle is portrayed as an unstoppable and unapologetic killing machine, a sniper who was proud of his exploits. Kyle is a product of the US empire at its worst. This is an empire steeped in extreme violence, willing to trample over any country in the name of the war on terrorism and leave in its path massive amounts of misery, suffering, dislocation and hardship. It is also an empire built on the backs of young men and women – though only men are featured – who are relentlessly engaged to buy into the myths of US military masculinity. Chris Kyle was the quintessential “army of one,” able to triumph over all enemies thrown in his way, including a former Olympic rifleman.

Of the three films, Selma and Citizenfour, however flawed, invoke the courage of men and some women who oppose the violence of the state in the interest of two distinct but intersecting forms of lawlessness, one marked by a brutalizing racism and the other marked by a suffocating practice of surveillance – though we see early histories of the surveillance state in Selma, and racism can hardly be detached from the war in Iraq. American Sniper is a film that erases history, spectacularizes violence, and reduces war and its aftermath to cheap entertainment, with an under explained referent to the mental problems many veterans live with when they return home from war. In this case the aftermath of war becomes the main narrative, a diversionary tactic and story that erases any attempt to understand the lies, violence, corruption and misdeeds that caused the war in the first place.

Under a regime of neoliberalism, a persistent racism and politics of disposability are matched by a theater of cruelty in which more and more individuals and groups are considered throwaways.

American Sniper hides the fact that behind the celebrated image of the heroic vigilante sniper lies a number of secret killer elite squads and special operations teams formed, under the George W. Bush administration, as part of a Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). The JSOC includes elite troops from a variety of US fighting units and has grown “from fewer than 2,000 troops before 9/11 to as many as 25,000 today.” (9) In Dirty Wars, Jeremy Scahill describes JSOC as a global killing machine, running covert wars and allowing its special operations units to function as unaccountable death squads. (10) JSOC has a budget of more than $8 billion annually and constitutes the infrastructure that suggests that American Sniper is less about a lone wolf vigilante than it is symptomatic of a much larger and more secret killing machine. (11)

Of course, while it may be redemptive for Hollywood to link targeted assassinations with US heroism, what it erases is that the real global assassination campaign is not the stuff of military valor, of “man-to-man” combat, but is being waged daily in the drone wars that have become the defining feature of the Obama administration. Many critics, including Noam Chomsky, have commented on Chris Kyle’s memoir in which he calls the enemy he has been fighting “savages.” There is more here than a trace of unadulterated racism; there is also an indication of how violence becomes so palatable, if not comforting, to the US public through the widespread ideological and affective spaces of violence produced and circulated in the United States’ commanding cultural apparatuses.

This is not surprising since under a regime of neoliberalism, a persistent racism and politics of disposability are matched by a theater of cruelty in which more and more individuals and groups – such as immigrants, low-income whites, poor blacks, the unemployed and the homeless – are considered throwaways and hence are tarred with the label of being less than human and hence are all the easier to evict from any sense of social responsibility or compassion. Extreme violence has become an American sport that promotes delight in inflicting suffering on others. But it does more. It also ups the pleasure quotient when the Other is entirely reified and demonized, making it easier for the US public to escape from any sense of moral responsibility for a war that was as immoral as it was illegal.

In the end, American Sniper is both symptomatic of and serves as a legitimation for the savage struggle-for-survival ethic that dominates US life and resonates throughout the narrative. Moreover, violence becomes a kind of safety valve to protect individuals against the perils of a solidarity based on care rather than fear. Politics becomes an extension of war. This becomes crystal clear in the dinner table scene in American Sniper when Kyle lectures his kids about how there are three types of people in the world: “wolves, sheep and sheepdogs.” In this pernicious worldview, wolves are brutal killers who threaten an innocent public both at home and abroad. Abroad they can be found in Yemen, Afghanistan and Iraq, or wherever Muslims live. At home, the category is quiet fluid and includes groups ranging from drug dealers and urban thugs to threatening black youth and criminal street gangs. The sheep are a metaphor for God-loving, patriotic, innocent Americans while the sheepdogs are those patriotic and vigilant Americans whose role is to protect the sheep from the wolves. The sheepdogs include everyone who inhabits the warrior culture, a wide range of groups that extend from the paramilitary police forces and vigilante super patriots along the nation’s borders to the gun-loving soldiers that protect US interests overseas.

The stories a society tells about itself are a measure of how it values itself, its children, the ideals of democracy and its future.

The analogy is not just pernicious; it is also transparent rationale for a hyper-masculine gun and militarized culture that feeds on fear and racist hysteria. It also offers a rationale for killing those dangerous racial others (wolves) who, in light of recent killings of unarmed black men by the police, appear to be fair game for the sheepdogs. I don’t believe this analogy is far-fetched. It is evident in the discourse of prominent politicians such as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani who has argued that the white cops in black communities are necessary because of the high numbers of black on black crime. (12) This is more than a false equivalency since black people are not armed by the state and many go to jail for the crimes they commit (or increasingly for not committing any crime at all). But more importantly, the disproportionate rate at which the police kill blacks rather than whites speaks to a not so hidden order of racial aggression and violence. According to recent data collected by ProPublica, “young black men are 21 times as likely as their white peers to be killed by police.” (13) What this discourse evokes is one of the central principles of neoliberalism – a survival of the fittest culture in which violence, unchecked self-interest and a militant individualism merge.

At the same time, American Sniper evokes sympathy not for its millions of victims but exclusively for those largely poor youth who have to carry the burden of war for the dishonest politicians who send them often into war zones that should never have existed in the first place. Amy Nelson at Slate gets it right in stating that “American Sniper convinces viewers that Chris Kyle is what heroism looks like: a great guy who shoots a lot of people and doesn’t think twice about it.” (14) But American Sniper does more than inject the horror of wartime violence into the instrumental logic of efficiency and skill; it also offers young people a form entertainment that is really a species of right-wing public pedagogy, a kind of “teachable moment.” Its decontextualization of war serves as a recruiting tool for the military and reinforces a sickening rite of passage that suggests that one has to go to war to be a real man. This is a death-dealing myth wrapped in the mantel of US heroism. Moreover, it is a myth that young, vulnerable, poor youth fall prey to, especially when their everyday existence is steeped in despair and precarity, and their identities are shaped in an endless number of cultural apparatuses that thrive on the spectacle of violence. There is no context, truth or history in this film, just the passion for violence and a hint at the despair that leaves its subjects and objects in a nightmarish world of despair, suffering and death. In that sense, as Dennis Trainor Jr. points out, the film is dangerous pedagogically. He writes:

History has borne that fact out, and that lack of context makes “American Sniper” a dangerous film. Dangerous because kids will sign up for the military because of this movie. Dangerous because our leaders have plans for those kids. Some will kill. Some will be killed. Or worse. There is no narrative existing outside the strict confines of “American Sniper’s” iron sights that allows for the war on terror to be over. It’s like a broken record looping over and over: attack, blowback and attack. Repeat. (15)

Citizenfour and Selma made little money, were largely ignored by the public and all but disappeared except for some paltry acknowledgements by the film industry. American Sniper is the most successful grossing war film of all time. Selma will be mentioned in the history books, but will not get the attention it really deserves for the relevance it should have for a new generation of youth confronting new forms of racism and state violence. There will be no mention in the history books regarding the importance of Edward Snowden because his story not only instructs a larger public, but indicts the myth of US democracy. Yet, American Sniper resembles a familiar narrative of false heroism and state violence for which thousands of pages will be written as part of history texts that will provide the pedagogical context for imposing on young people a mode of hyper-masculinity. Such pedagogies will be built on the false notion that violence is a sacred value and that war is an honorable ideal and the ultimate test of what it means to be a man. This is the stuff of Disney posing as pure Americana while beneath the pretense to innocence, bodies are tortured, children are murdered, villages are bombed into oblivion and the beat goes on.

The stories a society tells about itself are a measure of how it values itself, its children, the ideals of democracy and its future. The stories that Hollywood tells represent a particularly powerful form of public pedagogy that is integral to how people imagine themselves, their relations to others and their relationship to a larger global landscape. In this case, stories and the communal bonds that support them in their differences become integral to how people value life, social relations and visions of the future. American Sniper tells a troubling story codified as a tragic-heroic truth and normalized through an entertainment industry that thrives on the spectacle of violence, one that is deeply indebted to the militarization of everyday life.

Courage in the morally paralyzing lexicon of US patriotism has become an extension of a gun culture both at home and abroad. This is a culture of hyper-masculinity that trades in indulgent spectacles of violence and a theater of cruelty symptomatic of the mad violence and unchecked misery that is both a byproduct of and sustains the fog of historical amnesia, militarism and the death of democracy itself. Maybe the spectacular success of American Sniper over the other two films should not be surprising to anyone in a country in which the new normal for anointing a new generation of heroes goes to billionaires, politicians who sanction state torture, and other leaders of the corrupt institutions and bankrupt celebrity culture that now are driving the world into political, economic and moral bankruptcy, made visible in the most venal vocabularies of stupidity and cruelty. War machines, the mainstream, corporate controlled media and the financial elite now construct the stories that the United States tells about itself and in this delusional denial of social and moral responsibility, monsters are born, paving the way for the new authoritarianism.

Footnotes

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/oct/16/citizen-four-review-edward-snowden-documentary

2. I want to thank John Pilger for reminding me of the need to bring the depoliticization issue in this film to the forefront. Personal correspondence: February 12, 2015. John has a forthcoming piece on this issue.

3. Howard Zinn, SNCC: The New Abolitionists, second edition (Chicago: Haymarket, 2013).

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/richard-cohen-selma-insults-lbj-history-article-1.2066666

http://blackagendareport.com/node/14624

6. See for instance, Cornel West, ed. Martin Luther King, Jr. The Radical King (Boston: Beacon Press, 2015).

http://www.philly.com/philly/entertainment/20150109__Selma___A_clear_sense_of_the_mission_and_the_man.html#zBzQP2YFJr5ZkPyY.99

http://www.salon.com/2015/02/04/this_american_sniper_didnt_keep_track_of_his_kills_and_hates_that_i_ask_him/

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-rise-of-jsoc-in-dirty-wars-2013-4

10. Jeremy Scahill, Dirty Wars: The World Is a Battlefield (New York: Nation Books, 2014).

http://dissidentvoice.org/2015/01/harrys-gone-a-huntin/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/23/rudy-giuliani-ferguson_n_6207608.html

13. Cited in Ibid.

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/the_movie_club/features/2014/the_movie_club_2014/worst_movies_of_2014_american_sniper_glosses_over_chris_kyle_s_lies.html

Copyright, Truthout. May not be reprinted without permission of the author. 

[box]ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Henry A. Giroux currently holds the McMaster University Chair for Scholarship in the Public Interest in the English and Cultural Studies Department and a Distinguished Visiting Professorship at Ryerson University. His most recent books include: Youth in Revolt: Reclaiming a Democratic Future (Paradigm 2013), America’s Educational Deficit and the War on Youth (Monthly Review Press, 2013) Neoliberalism’s War on Higher Education (Haymarket Press, 2014), and The Violence of Organized Forgetting: Thinking Beyond America’s Disimagination Machine (City Lights, 2014). The Toronto Star named Henry Giroux one of the 12 Canadians changing the way we think! Giroux is also a member of Truthout’s Board of Directors. His website is www.henryagiroux.com.[/box]


 

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The Beautiful Truth about Minsk II & The Debaltsevo Debacle

Joaquin Flores


 BELOW: Victorious Novorussia fighters atop armored vehicle. novorussiaTank

[dropcap]O[/dropcap]n February 12th, on the day Minsk II was signed by the contact group as agreed to by the Normandy 4, we wrote:

“These are the relevant factors which produce the strong sense that these Normandy 4 meetings involve some very serious things and some complex levels that are beyond the scope of what is reported. Russia conducts itself in these meetings from a position of strength.”


Ukrainian tank operating in Delbatsevo area. Their hasty retreat has presented Potroshenko and his Western patrons with an almost impossible political and strategic dilemma. 
Ukrainian_tank-Debáltsevo-troops_during_the_Battle_of_Debaltseve,_5_February_2015_(3)

Critical events since the February 12th ceasefire show us the real underlying factors beyond the scope of what was originally reported. With the Ukrainian Army (UAF) having been encircled in the Debaltsevo region—caught in a “cauldron”— and without provisions, mass surrenders are already underway.  There are reports of thousands of UAF dead.  Close fighting in the town itself have resulted in the UAF being pushed out, with the town now under Novorossiyan control. The UAF had nowhere to go, and were out of ammo.

Attempts to push out anywhere resulted in more needless deaths for the disheartened and broken Ukrainian force whose numbers range between five and eight thousand.  Putin has publicly urged Poroshenko to allow the UAF soldiers to surrender.  Unsurprisingly, Poroshenko has declared victory.


NAF’s spoils of war: quite a trove of first-class war materiel. High-tech weapons can never substitute for morale, nonetheless, as the fighting in Eastern Ukraine has proved time and again. 

UAF-weapons.abandoned

The encirclement was complete in the week leading up to the Minsk II meeting.  The political reality in which the EU gave its blessing to Novorossiya and Russia to finish off the encirclement was based in a few things, and US agreement to other points was based on other considerations.  There are three sides at play here, even though it often appears as two. The Minsk II agreement enshrined the EU blessings. In return, the EU got something, but what that is remains the subject of some speculation.

Debaltsevo is a critical area because it has rail lines through it which connect the Lughansk and Donetsk republics. The September 5th Ceasefire was intended to have this in control of Novorossiya.  The September 19th memorandum explicitly restates this, and the map of the de-militarized and pull-back lines clearly show that Debaltsevo was to be withdrawn from.

Poroshenko stated that the Cauldron was actually a bridgehead.  In fact, he is right, this was not a new development but an ongoing occupation of Debaltsevo which was in violation of the 9-19 memorandum.

Overall, this agreement is reflective of the general direction things have gone, and reflects Russian mastery of geopolitical strategy, meaningful diplomacy and “lawfare”, hybrid warfare, and thorough planning all around.


Kiev’s sudden military collapse can be appreciated in these shots of an abandoned camp. As noted above, enormous quantities of ammo and other supplies were found by the NAF fighters. (Mural Gazdiev)

ukrainianCamp-abandoned

Screen Shot 2015-02-21 at 9.18.16 AM

Screen Shot 2015-02-21 at 9.20.04 AM

Why Debaltsevo was an apparent exception to the ceasefire, what the new ceasefire agreement actually compels, what was really said at Minsk, what to make of  the UN Security Council resolution, and what this says about the present state of affairs are all serious questions that are raised from the recent developments. These are the pressing questions we will try to answer in brief.

1) The EU was forced to agree to a revised form of the September ceasefire, including the memorandum of the 19th of that month.   US policy is failing, or rather succeeding in producing an unstable situation, precisely what most of European decision makers want to avoid.  Even EU Atlanticists are not in it for the whole wild ride, and their Trans-Atlantic sensibilities are still based upon general notions of wealth creation and regional stability.

Evidence of this was the impending doom of thousands of UAF fighters, as leaked information indicated a number of these may be from NATO countries, and Merkel and Hollande were right in knowing that they had better get clarification on this matter directly from the Russian head of state.

Indeed, this is why European leaders called the meeting, and rushed to Minsk.

Poroshenko does not answer to the EU, they are not his guarantor, and they are not capable of pressuring him too much. They can only pressure the US, and only by extension Poroshenko, by not going along with US plans for Russia and Ukraine.  EU has said no to Ukraine in NATO, and no to the EU Association Agreement after all.  On these critical points the EU says, over and over, the same thing that Russia says.


BELOW: Poster satirizing Poroshenko’s actual position in the geostrategic mix. 

ukraine-Poroshenko-caricatureTo understand the Minsk agreement is to understand the EU’s relationship with the Kiev Junta.  The EU knows that when it talks to Poroshenko, it is talking to a US sock puppet. The reason that Poroshenko was at the meeting, and not the US, was because the EU and Russia wanted to tell Poroshenko certain things in a security environment which only the nominally neutral Minsk could provide.  No one really thinks that Belarus is neutral, but everyone can pretend that they are.

The EU generally is not happy with how the US has handled things, and yet it is straddling two chairs on the question.  So this is about the US using its pull on the Atlanticist forces within the EU, and also within less formal NATO structures, to make a policy for Europe and on Europe outside of the scope of European agency.

The prior agreement among other things specifically placed control of Debaltsevo in the hands of Novorossiya.  Both the September and February agreements contain some apparent defects, which work out favorably again for the Russians.  This is why we have heard rebel commanders and DPR leader Zakharchenko affirm both that the agreement is vague and contains contradictions, and also that Debaltsevo was not included in the ceasefire. Rather, he means the opposite on these points.

First, the terms are vague and do not compel the rebels to end the rebellion (it places the onus on Ukraine to do things first that it will never do, and is not compelled to do by the language). Second, abiding by the ceasefire, it entirely justifies the use of arms to resolve the UAF’s violation of the agreement through its intrusion into the Debaltsevo area.  At least on paper, it boils down to how one interprets specific language from the Minsk II agreement of February 12th.  We will look at this in a moment.

The map below includes the September 19th line as a dotted black curving series of dots, which have Debaltsevo on the Novorossiyan side of the line. There are at least two ways to interpret the language of the latest agreement.

Screen Shot 2015-02-21 at 8.46.43 AM

in Alexander Zakharenko, young Novorossiya has a leader that fuses Jefferson's intellectual gifts with Washington's courage and military skill. (Screen grab)

In Alexander Zakharenko, young Novorossiya has a leader that fuses Jefferson’s intellectual gifts with George Washington’s courage and military skill. (Screen grab)

What will figure prominently in the coming disagreements over implementation is the meaning of point 2 and point 4.  The Minsk II agreement of February 12th refers back to the Minsk Memorandum of 19th September twice.  These are in relation to the borders, one way or another, of Novorossiya.

In point 2 we read:

  1. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for MLRS and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:

* for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;

* for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014

The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.

This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

This refers to artillery pull-out, but note that there are different lines to withdraw from for each of the two sides.  This can be interpreted different ways: the word ‘actual’ means ‘in reality’, but which reality – the past, present or the future; the line on the 12th, on the 15th, or 14 days after the 15th? Whatever the case what it does do inarguably is draw us back to the Minsk Memorandum of the 19th and reaffirms those lines.  The line for Novorossiya in that 19 September agreement includes Debaltsevo within it.

  • On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
  • Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.

    These two cited sections taken together mean that some things in point 2 are obligated to have taken place on or about March 1st, and point 4’s ‘Rada resolution’ must be approved by Ukraine by mid March. But what is approved is a resolution that ‘indicates’ the territory, which is not the same thing as ‘recognizing’ that territory or vesting those local authorities with any specific rights and obligations.

    In the course of the execution of the September agreement, each side accused the other of having violated it.  Over the course of time, with each side making it known to the other, it can reasonably be said that much of it was no longer in effect.

    With those changes having effectively taken place to the original agreement, references to the Minsk Memorandum of 19 September begin to take on elements of vestigial clauses or vestigial language if they lack meaning or if subsequent practices and events have diminished their effect.

    While point 2 seems to refer more strongly to the 19 September borders when it constrains the Novorossiyans, in point 4 in which the Ukrainian Rada ‘indicates’ their territory, the language is much softer and states that it be ‘based in’ that line.  Other problems in point 4 which may make the entire agreement defective and void notwithstanding (this may relate to the details of the referenced Ukrainian law on local self-governance), we can see clearly that the Rada must ‘indicate’ – which does not carry the force of ‘determine’, and certainly not ‘recognize’.  Furthermore it states that the boundaries are ‘based in the line’, not precisely the line determined then, but possible a new line which is ‘based in the line’ in some day – determined by the same rationale, recognizing the same interests, or closely resembling  – so it would be argued – the September 19th line in some credible way.

    It was required, therefore, to agree again on the terms, so that this ‘reset’ supersedes the previous deviations, which if unchallenged may actually establish a new tacit agreement. Even though the references to the September 19th line are not coupled with firm language which compels specific actions coupled with specified consequences for inaction and remedy process, they are still referenced too.  This means that parties can justify their ‘ceasefire’ actions of this already confused document as being based on the agreement.

    Overall, we can see we have drawn several distinct interpretations.  One seems to be based in the ‘actual line of contact’ for the Ukraine side, which would be where the UAF positions ‘are’ (but vague about ‘when’ we look).  The other one allows us to interpret the language as effectively returning the strategically Debaltsevo region to Novorossiya in accordance with the September 19th agreement.

    When we look at the following series of situation report maps, September, October, and November, we can see that soon after the September agreement characterized by a Novorossiyan Debaltsevo, the UAF took it in violation of that agreement.

    Those who have been keeping an eye on these developments during the ‘ceasefire’ months will already appreciate that the encirclement did not form out of a recent advance of the UAF.  This was not a blunder that pushed forward too far as a result of poor communication or bad planning.  The ‘bridgehead’ it maintained was extraordinarily well fortified.  It had intended to be surrounded on three sides and function like a fortification that could tolerate a near-siege.  Indeed it was even thought  that this bridgehead could become the focus of Novorossiya efforts, wicking them away from elsewhere, and once drawn in and then ground down, the protrusion could push farther south-east. Their strategy has been to develop this cleavage further until they can split Donetsk off from Lugansk entirely.

    joaquin-september debaltsevo

    September

     

    joaquin-october debaltsevo

    October

     

    Joaquin-november debaltsevo

    November

     

    destabilize the region, but only with a Russian over-commitment which places it on course for its own internal destabilization as well.

    A large number of those elites in Europe who are cautiously sitting in two chairs and trying to appease US policy, will only continue to entertain the US course so long as it does not result in further destabilization.  In a mid-intensity conflict such as this where the information war is central, it is a poor move to be the party which turns down unconditional overtures for ceasefire talks.

    The US thought it was in a ‘win-win’ with this situation.

    If on the one hand Poroshenko could get the Russians, in light of the recent advances and the statements from Zakharchenko, to stop the push and return to the September lines, this would be good.  If they gain more territory which is not strategically important, this is also fine.  Over the course of the last few months, the US lost control of the narrative and accusations that Novorossiya had violated the ceasefire fell on deaf ears.  Additionally, as with the MH17 downing, the US failed to get a false flag to result in real shift in the public discourse and the position of their European partners.

    The core of this also then for the US is that this provided a new opportunity to bind Russia to terms, the vagueness of which allows the US to construe any act as an abrogation on the part of Russia in the media war, and as a justification for increased sanctions.

    If it fails, and Poroshenko’s army there is destroyed, then Poroshenko faces being removed from office in a Pravy Sektor type coup, and the US goes forward with the next part of its plan. The UAF had reason to believe, days before the talks, that a well executed push could keep the encirclement from finally closing, allowing necessary provisions and ammo inside. This only was needed to work, or last, until after the agreement was made.

    The US deemed that if it was not a formal party to the talks, then there was nothing binding on them. Conversely, Russia was a party to the talks, and could be held responsible as a guarantor of commitments stemming from these talks.

    The US knew that among the UAF soldiers were also mercenaries from NATO countries, and even NATO advisers.  It is unclear to what extent the French and the Germans are capable of assessing things which might first arise as leaks or rumors.  It is also unclear to what extent the US would inform civilian authorities like Merkel and Hollande of the extent of NATO (an organization it controls) involvement.  We do know that German intelligence is in a process of creating an inner network independent of US intelligence networks.  In other words, Germany is in the process of becoming a sovereign state.

    So there are various scenarios concerning the degree of European knowledge about mercenaries and NATO soldiers in Debaltsevo.  What we do know is that the Russians know about it, and these sorts of rare face to face meetings away from the US are places where the other players are free to share what they know and speak bluntly about what facts they have and what they are working with.

    This is where Putin was able to directly share Russian satellite and drone imagery establishing that the cauldron would not be a ‘line of contact’ either by the 15th or the 1st of March.  At this time also, Putin clarified and confirmed fears that indeed foreign western backed mercenaries, some perhaps even still in NATO armies.

    Indeed, based on numerous confirmed reports and official statements from brigade commanders like Motorola who are known for unfiltered moments, is that indeed as much as a third of this encircled group, acting as a vanguard for the salient, were from NATO countries.  They may have had some kind of ties, past or present, with NATO military structures.  Past connections would be typical of mercenaries or special forces on temporary separation or retirement. Active duty personnel would be those that can be termed military advisers.

    The EU is really a Berlin-Paris axis, and Hollande and Merkel can only exist as representatives of an EU in its present incarnation, a mixture of Eurasianist and Atlanticist tendencies which are at odds with each other.  What would be extraordinarily upsetting, and what would corrode the EU leadership’s ability to maintain credibility with its own constituencies, would be the video footage of hundreds or thousands of dead and surrendering Polish, German, and American mercenaries encircled at Debaltsevo.  This was a hand that Russian leadership played masterfully.

    Now we can see the rush on the part of the Ukrainians to keep a reality distinct from the language of the September ceasefire agreement.  They wanted to prevent the Novorossiyans from creating new facts on the ground. The Kiev Junta never adhered to the borders designated by the September agreement, and maintained the Debaltsevo protrusion as a bridgehead.  It was not a zone of operations until the matter of Donetsk – the removal of the UAF and the PS militias from operating in the immediate area – was complete.

    6) Despite all the problems with this agreement, the UN Security Council unanimously voted to approve the agreement.  That the US allowed Ukraine to sign on to this, and also approved it at the Security Council can mean several things.  On the one hand, they see an opportunity now to blame Russia for being in violation of a Security Council resolution. But the language of this resolution is important, as we have learned from past wars starting with Iraq.

    While the US regularly violates international law and claims the status of ‘exceptional nation’, Russia’s whole narrative has been one of adhering strictly to it and upholding the universality of its principles.

    The US likes that it can use its own media to attempt to blame Russia for what inevitably will be a violation of the ceasefire.  For that, it is pleased that it can point to a Security Council resolution to that effect.

    But the resolution of the Security Council is also toothless.  It does not require anything if it is not adhered to.  It does not contain a mechanism for determining fault, nor does it create a process for remedy or correction.

    Because, however, this is now a subject which the Security Council has a made a resolution ending with the phrase ‘is seized of the matter’, it means that the General Assembly or any other body like the UNHRC cannot weigh in with any recommendations.  This will be useful for Russia, especially for these other bodies which the US often has an undue degree of influence over.

    Finally, should the US begin again to go overboard, Russia will be in the position make public a range of other things which it knows and which the US would rather not be made public.  Specifically relating to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia may surprises evidence of EU-NATO involvement in a manner in line with its agreement on that matter with the EU, and rather instead go public with US-NATO involvement.  In such a scenario, the year old mantra of a ‘Russian Invasion’ will be flipped in the EU media into a US invasion.  Besides Ukraine, the European public is the only non-Russian public of course that matters because of its parliamentary system and plural-civil-democratic institutions.  When Americans are totally opposed to a critical feature of US policy, it has no affect on US policy, only visible is a change in the branding and packaging.

    8) Putin proved to Merkel and Hollande that the real negative influence on Poroshenko is the US, and in the course of the meeting it was proved that Poroshenko has no actual agency. He probably was unable to speak at the secured meeting beyond general phrases and public relation type statements, which revealed that he is unable to make independent policy for Ukraine.

    Russia wants Poroshenko to keep Ukraine together, and the US wants to increase the mayhem and create upon the collective and historical consciousness a new galvanizing and polarizing event, in order to shape future discourse and resuscitate blood feuds.  That would take the form of an ongoing conflict and a ‘black hole’ which sucks in the efforts and resources of the region, leading up to a destabilization of Russia itself.

    This is what the US has done in Syria and Iraq, and yet have not been able to destabilize Iran.  In a more perfect world for the US, what is happening in Ukraine today would have been in the aftermath of a removed Assad, and a ruined Iran.  At some point the decision was made to go ahead with the Ukraine plan as Ukraine was looking at increased integration into the Eurasian economic union.

    What to Expect
    Poroshenko is already trying to spin this major defeat as either a victory, a moral victory, or an orderly movement which relates somehow to the ceasefire.  Western media, especially in the US and UK, which have an increasingly smaller audience in the world and in the West itself, will push the line that the Novorossiyan side is violating the ceasefire.

    Ukraine violated the ceasefire unilaterally last time, which is how the occupation of the Debaltsevo area came under Ukraine control after the September agreement which placed it in Novorossiyan hands.  That is the critical fact to remember when looking at how these brokered agreements are later trounced on.

    We know that the Novorossiyans had a justification for maintaining the cauldron at Debaltsevo given the history, and the legal meanings and implications we discussed earlier.

    The US is going to latch onto the Security Council resolution, and we should expect Psaki to latch onto this in her press briefings, stating without evidence that Russia is violating numerous provisions of the cease.  This Security Council business is a big deal for the US, and they may try to hype some distorted meme about this and milk it as much as they can.  If they don’t attempt to do things in the Ukrainian theatre which cross Russia’s implied red line, they will probably return to Syria and create the pretext for a more robust presence and more attacks in Syrian infrastructure, attacks which so far the international community has tolerated to some degree.

    Russia does not want things to escalate, that is not in their interest.  If forced, they will respond adequately and their moves will be decisive and unannounced, and will create new facts on the ground which will polarize the European discourse.  Russia will be able to go public with its video footage of the US mercenaries at Debaltsevo and the Donetsk Airport.  These are the kinds of things which are proven effective in moving the European discourse in a desired direction.

    Now Poroshenko is going to have to figure out how he can effectively spin this catastrophe.  The Russians were looking for ways to minimize the impact, perhaps even help him stage a faked victory elsewhere which he could point to, and draw the attention of the Ukrainian media. But Poroshenko followed his US advisers and made the UAF stuck in the cauldron take thousands of casualties.

    It is not something supporters of Russia and Novorossiya will advertise or even be aware of, but Russia now will help Poroshenko do some damage control.  As was the pattern last summer, we should expect the Novorossiyans to talk about some set-back, even if it is not really true.

    It is most likely that in the aftermath of Minsk II and the way that Novorossiya went ahead and handled the cauldron anyhow, that the US is only barely now starting to realize that they’ve been left with an unplayable hand.


     

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR

    joaquinFloresBiopic

    [box] Special Correspondent in Belgrade Joaquin Flores is an American expat living in Belgrade. He is a full-time analyst at the Center for Syncretic Studies (which he founded), a public geostrategic think-tank. His expertise encompasses Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and he has a strong proficiency in Middle East affairs. Flores is particularly adept at analyzing the psychology of the propaganda wars. He is a political scientist educated at California State University. In the US, he worked for a number of years as a labor union organizer, chief negotiator, and strategist for a major trade union federation.[/box]

    **

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    APPENDIX
    Poroshenko delusional or cynically using the Big Lie to whitewash serious defeat.

    [dropcap]B[/dropcap]elow we reproduce the full transcript of the latest statement by Poroshenko about the Debaltsevo situation:

    I can inform now that this morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine together with the National Guard completed the operation on the planned and organized withdrawal of a part of units from Debaltsevo. We can say that 80% of troops have been already withdrawn. We are waiting for two more columns. Warriors of the 128th brigade, parts of units of the 30th brigade, the rest of the 25th and the 40th battalions, Special Forces, the National Guard and the police have already left the area.

    We can assert that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have fulfilled their tasks completely. This position and success were urgently necessary for us in the course of the Minsk negotiations and after them. We managed to show to the whole world the true face of bandits-separatists backed by Russia, which acted as guarantor and direct participant of the Minsk negotiations.

    We were asserting and proved: Debaltseve was under our control, there was no encirclement, and our troops left the area in a planned and organized manner with all the heavy weaponry: tanks, APCs, self-propelled artillery and vehicles.

    Commanders are working with their personnel. We are waiting for one more column, one more company. Having withdrawn the combat patrol posts to the new defense line, we have preserved the bridgehead for the defense of the state.

    It is a strong evidence of combat readiness of the Armed Forces and efficiency of the military command. I can say that despite tough artillery and MLRS shelling, according to the recent data, we have 30 wounded out of more than 2,000 warriors. The information is being collected and may be clarified.

    I would like to say that Russia, which yesterday required the Ukrainian warriors to lay down arms, raise the white flag and surrender, was put to shame by the given actions. Ukrainian warriors honorably approved the high rank of the Ukrainian Defender of the Homeland. As I promised, they repelled those who tried to encircle them and left Debaltsevo pursuant to my command, which I gave yesterday, when Russian servicemen forbade the OSCE representatives to come to Debaltsevo to reaffirm our readiness to begin the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and demonstrate the absence of encirclement. They knew it was not true. We demonstrated and proved that with our operation.

    We are holding the new defense lines. In the course of my negotiations with leaders of the United States and the EU, I demanded a firm reaction from the world to Russia’s brutal violation of the Minsk agreements, the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry. We will prepare organized and coordinated actions together.

    I have convened the NSDC meeting for this evening. Now, I am departing to the front to meet those who left Debaltsevo. I am honored to shake hands and thank Ukrainian heroes.

    Today, my Decree on awarding the high title of Hero of Ukraine to commander of the 128th Mukacheve mining-infantry brigade Serhiy Shaptala will be proclaimed. Ukraine is proud of such heroes. Internal stability will not be undermined by the battalions “everything is lost” and “this is the end”, lies about a lot of soldiers murdered yesterday, encircled roadblocks and Ukrainian warriors without ammunition, food and water. It is not a Ukrainian scenario. I am confident that those who were spreading it expected a different result. Fortunately, we successfully completed the operation and will have an opportunity to further defend the state.

    The  New York Times dissents

    Curiously, the NYT, usually one of the leading lying instruments of the US ruling cliques, chose to present a sharply different view of the Debaltsevo debacle. In a piece entitled “A Bloody Retreat From Debaltsevo as Ukrainian Forces Suddenly Withdraw“ the NYT stated that “Mr. Poroshenko sought to cast the retreat in a positive light, but the loss of the town was clearly a devastating setback for the army“.

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    Where Do U.S. War Dead Come From

    Evan Knappenberger, veteran turned peace activist, put together the following data and map.

    us-military3

    David Swanson, War Is A Crime.org

    [dropcap]N[/dropcap]eedless to say, most of the dead in recent U.S. wars are on the non-U.S. side — about 97% in fact. These are one-sided slaughters. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t deaths on the side of the aggressor. And beyond the deaths, far more injuries, and far more suffering PTSD and moral injury.

    Needless to say, as well, both Republican and Democratic party leaders in Washington have supported these wars and continue to do so.

    Still, it may be interesting to see which states — with party labels on them — are sending the most U.S. troops to their untimely and unjustifiable deaths. From Maryland up to Massachusetts states are dispropotionately spared war deaths. The same is true for West Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida — plus Illinois and Minnesota.  Four more states: California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado are also disproportionately spared.  A lot of the biggest urban areas are in those states: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Diego, San Jose, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Washington, Boston, San Francisco, Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Denver, Baltimore, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, Raleigh, Colorado Springs, Minneapolis.

    All the other states are disproportionately impacted by deaths in action in U.S. wars. See the data. These states are hardest hit:

    Oklahoma
    Texas
    Ohio
    Virginia
    Arkansas
    Louisiana
    Oregon
    Nebraska
    Kentucky
    Michigan

    These states are hit most lightly:

    Utah
    Massachusetts
    Minnesota
    North Carolina
    Connecticut
    Illinois
    New Jersey
    Florida
    California
    New York

    I suspect these numbers roughly correspond to participation in the military.

    The lesson should not of course be that we should get more people killed from the states that are participating less. The lesson should be that the states participating the least should be congratulated and the others criticized.

    Nor should the lesson be that flying robots should do the killing. Mass murder is as immoral and self-defeating regardless of the immediate danger to the murderers.

    The lesson should be that counter-recruitment efforts are needed in rural areas.

    The lesson should be that imperial death-dealing is a bipartisan criminal enterprise that must be rejected by the U.S. nation as a whole.


     

    SOURCE: War Is a Crime

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