Julian Macfarlane
NEWS FORENSICS
OpEds
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This is part of a “narrative” of course — that Maduro and Chavismo— are oppressing the Venezuela people, who just really love the Gringos.
Marco Rubio says he talked to the new President, Rodrigez, for a long time and that the new Venezuelan government ever so much wants to bend over if the Americans just supply the lube.
So, the people of Venezuela hate the Commies. And, if you follow the logic of this story , that means there was collusion in the armed forces, except for the soldiers and civilians who were all killed when the Americans abducted Maduro, according to Trump, who was very proud of that.
Of course, there might be have some people who were disaffected with Maduro.
While Maduro has been very successful in improving Venezuela’s economy with the best growth rate in Latin America despite US sanctions, a lot of the benefits go to poor brown people.
Not so much to rich, white-ish people, the kind that supported Guaido and Gonzales and Machado.
In addition, there were clearly some Chavista military people who feel Maduro was too “diplomatic” in his dealings with the US, too “compliant”, hoping for dialog and cooperation.
That said, there is every indication that the new government is going to be more hardline.
President Rodriguez might look “soft” but…
In other words, the Venezuelan people will fight the US, no matter what happens to Maduro.
Who turned off the air defenses?
What about the lack of air defenses, the night of the attack? People talk about that without really looking at the situation.
As I pointed out, this was a well-planned attack using resources planted in Venezuela since before the Gonzales / Machado election bid.
And this is the age of electronic warfare.
And it now appears that the primary reason for the paralysis of Venezuela’s air defenses was cyberwarfare, which cut off the power to large parts of Caracas and blanked military communications systems – air defense was blind, and it was difficult, if not impossible, to coordinate military resistance on the ground under intense SEAD fire.
That the US has a very sophisticated cyber capability we know, not just because of the attack on the PDVSA, which caused extensive blackouts, but also since the hacks of the well-protected Venezuela electoral system – and more recently, the Honduran electoral system.
In the case of the Gonzales/ Machado takeover bid, the hack has never been acknowledged, as the case with the PDVSA, since that would invalidate Gonzales’ claims to be the legitimate president of Venezuela. In any case, it failed thanks to backup systems and the Supreme Court.
Still, we saw what CIA money and resources could do. Cyberwar is an invisible war.
So now, what next?
The US cannot put “boots on the ground” in a real invasion to take control of infrastructure without taking a lot of casualties. It could try to take Caracas, but urban warfare is a bitch. Tactically, it would have to fall back on more cyberwarfare, more missile strikes and the like.
Except that these things are not that effective in asymmetric war.
Should this happen, the Venezuelan military would be better prepared. The attack has unified the standing military, militias and police who would make life difficult for Venezuela’s 5th Column, the guys in suits.
And… I would not be surprised if the Chavistas don’t get covert help in carrying out a little cyberwarfare and the like of their own, from the Chinese and the Russians. Commies, all ….
Trump’s Militaristic Picnic
Does Trump and his people have a Plan? A Policy. Of course! Trump asked Ratcliffe, who asked Operational Planning, who brainstormed, despite lacking brains.
But the CIA can’t determine Strategy, which is Trump’s prerogative . While “plans” and “policy” are usually short-term to deal with specific issues. Strategies require long-range thinking, taking into account all possibilities and probabilities, quantum logic. Trump has the attention span of a fruit fly. If the CIA recommends something, he will forget it moments later or misunderstand it.
He manages “policy” as a kind of picnic box, like the kind where you put food, neatly divided into smaller boxes. He buzzes around waiting for them to be opened by someone.
Really…it’s not healthy. And who is going to clean up the mess afterwards?
Then again, this is America! We have brown people to clean stuff up. Illegals, of course.
Consider the last few weeks.
There are lots of little boxes for US policy. Snacks!
Expect an erratic course.
There was the attack on Valdai in Russia. Trump asked Ratcliffe at the CIA who asked somebody and they had a meeting, the upshot of which was that Valdai never happened, despite the flight logs of the drones.
So Trump reversed himself. He didn’t quite say that the Russians were lying, as Zelensky did, but he might as well have.
Bad call.
Truth and Consequences?
Will there be a “Ukraine” when the Congressional elections take place in the Fall? Maybe...something left of it – but how much?
What if Russia declares a no-fly zone over the Black Sea?
It could also declare a “Non-Surveillance Zone" extending even beyond the Black Sea and international airspace to include airspace over European states such as Romania or Poland.
Having declared a no-fly zone, it could also shoot down an American AWACS plane or drone over the Black Sea, transmitting data to the Ukrainians as a warning to states bordering Ukraine.
IAF—> Indian Air Force
It could also disarm an ISR satellite with EW—or shoot it down with an S500, if detected monitoring Russian military activities and transmitting information to the Ukrainians?
Of course, it would be “unfriendly”. With the US as a “friend”, who needs enemies!
The US has cited Article 51 of the UN Charter (arguing that the flow of “drugs, thugs, and weapons” into the U.S. from Venezuela constituted a form of “armed attack” that triggered the inherent right of individual self-defense.
The use of AWACS aircraft, drones and ISR satellites to kill Russians is much more of an armed attack and constitutes co-belligerence !
To avoid a nuclear war, the EU, NATO and the US would have to back down. Trump does not understand reason or morality, but he does understand force.
Of course, while such things could happen, they are very, very unlikely . That saddens me.
Still, one can dream, can’t one?
Venezuela opened Pandora’s Box. Everyone can play the American game, at least a little.
Professor Chappy says:
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Trump's drug
So to speak....
For the Donald, the delusion of power is a drug.
Delcy Rodriguez
Aside from the threat of launching a second military operation against Venezuela, the US reportedly sees sanctions relief and access to Rodriguez’s financial assets as leverage. However, several Politico sources said they were unaware of any plans to lift sanctions or provide significant humanitarian aid at this stage. Politico
Really? With Politico it is always best to read between the lines.
Delcy and her brother Jorge, head of the national assembly, are both dedicated Chavistas, with a very good reason not to comply with the Gringos-- revenge.
On the other hand, they know how to play the game for time, which is all-important given American domestic politics.
Why the Rodriguezes hate the Gringos
Jorge Antonio Rodríguez
Delcy Rodríguez’s father, Jorge Antonio Rodríguez, was a prominent Marxist leader in Venezuela who died in police custody on July 25, 1976, after being tortured.
He was a student leader at the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) and the founder of the Socialist League, a radical left-wing party.
He was detained by the Directorate of Intelligence and Prevention Services (DISIP) on July 23, 1976, for his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of American executive William Niehous, the head of Owens-Illinois in Venezuela, said to be a CIA operative.
While officially attributed to a heart attack, an autopsy revealed he had suffered severe physical trauma during interrogation, including seven broken ribs and a detached liver.
He was 34 years old at the time of his death.
His death became a foundational political narrative for his children, Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez (current President of the National Assembly).
Delcy has historically described the “Bolivarian Revolution” as “revenge” for her father’s killing.
Delcy will not betray Maduro any more than she would betray Chavez or her father.
But many people are going with this “betrayal” narrative, which is spread by the Western Media. Y’know— Latinos are lazy, venal, and unreliable.
The betrayal story
International law specialist and UN expert Alfred de Zayas told Sputnik.
Unlike past US-backed coups across the region, plotters in Venezuela have not found a base of support in the military to draw from to successfully overthrow the government and install a US puppet regime, renowned international law specialist and UN expert Alfred de Zayas told Sputnik.
“When the US tried to overthrow Hugo Chavez in 2002 and the coup d’etat failed after 48 hours (Chavez had been taken prisoner – but his popularity with the Army was such that the Army succeeded in liberating him), the Venezuelan people remained loyal to Chavez,” Zayas recalled.
“I am convinced that the Venezuelan authorities would have remained loyal to Maduro if they had had the opportunity. That is why Maduro was immediately flown out of the country,” he added.
Speaking to Venezuelan government officials repeatedly, including in his capacity as a UN independent expert, and in the years since, Zayas said what stuck out to him about these conversations was their ideological commitment and loyalty “to the tenets of the Bolivarian Revolution,” and the US’s clear inability to easily “buy” them.
“I personally know of several high officials who were approached by CIA operatives with very attractive offers, and they refused to sell out,” Zayas said.
What’s more, in his conversations with ordinary Venezuelans, the expert came away with the impression that “the masses hate the United States – the Yankees – and will not accept a US puppet,” seeing US sanctions pressure, not the Venezuelan government, as the source of their troubles.
Ironically, the US seems to agree.
This aligns with my own explanations in previous posts—and I have been following the evolution of American military tactics— since I was a stringer during the “Secret War” in Laos.
Of course, there are many theories. Here’s an interesting one, which is at least as credible as the CIA buying off the Chavista military.
A Trojan Horse?
The most provocative possibility is that the kidnapping “was a Trojan Horse operation,” which would remove questions about betrayal and incompetence and explain “many inconsistencies,” Lidovskoy says.
“The gist of this theory is that a US delegation accompanied by armed guards arrived at Maduro’s residence to discuss the parameters of a peace deal at a dinner, to conduct peace talks, to find common ground.
This would explain the lack of incoming fire by Venezuelan air defenses on US helicopters. “Once inside, the delegation’s armed guard (revealed to be special forces) shot all of Maduro’s guards – who were unprepared for this – and captured the president. And only when the signal came in that something had gone wrong and the president had been captured did the bombing of Venezuelan bases and key air defense points begin, providing a smokescreen for the US withdrawal” .Egor Lidovskoy, director of St. Petersburg’s Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center.
Are ya’ reading this, Netflix?
There are so many angles to this incident. It really would make a great TV series.
Take Delta Force.
Billy Lavigne Delta Force implicated in drug trafficking.
Heroes? Or Villains? You choose.
Ft Bragg cartel
Maybe the US hates the Latin American cartels because it hates competition? The US is the world’s biggest Mafia gang.
In case you are wondering who the US’ “witnesses’ against Maduro will be, they are all convicted criminals. Guess what they were promised in return for their testimony?
Trump makes a mockery of justice, of the US, and ultimately of himself.
As I wrote recently, this is the Age of Artificiality. It’s a Virtual World. Nothing is real anymore.
Trump breaks bad
And lessons from the 14th Century
“I’m in the empire business”. Walter White, Breaking Bad
Walter White took the name “Heisenberg”who came up with the Uncertainty Principle— the core of which is that the more precisely you know a particle’s position, the less you know about its momentum and vice versa. The more Trump articulates a position, the less you know where he’s going next. That’s true of the US, too.
Uncertainty. Unpredictability. Contradictions. Yet, a trajectory.
The government of the United States doesn’t want peace. It wants to exploit its system of exploitation, of pillage, of hegemony through war. It wants peace. But what’s happening in Iraq? What happened in Lebanon? In Palestine? What’s happening? What’s happened over the last 100 years in Latin America and in the world? And now threatening Venezuela — new threats against Venezuela, against Iran?
Who said this? Me? Brian Berletic?
No, this was spoken by Hugo Chávez, the first president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in an address to the UN General Assembly in 2006.
Donald Trump is doing nothing new —he is just doing it more openly, more obviously, and more stupidly. He thinks he can get away with it because previous presidents did.
But previous presidents always pretended their actions were about “freedom”, “democracy”, ”human rights’ and the like-- even “rules-based order” and “international law”, Commuters on the way to work, read their words and thought, “Oh yeah, I like those things”. They had other things to think about, like what to have for lunch.
Trump now just says his actions are just about resources – not that the US doesn’t have a lot of resources, but exploiting them takes effort and costs money — it is much easier to just steal resources that belong to others and somehow get them to pay for it.
The US is very, very hungry. It is like an old lion that can no longer hunt as it used to and resorts to raiding villages – pigs, goats, and the villagers, too. It is an apex predator no longer at the apex.
It needs to be put down.
But Trump failed recently in Venezuela. Chavismo has survived—because of what it hs given to Venezuela, a record of liberation, almost unequalled in history.
And the Gringo challenge has made the country stronger. Venezuela is now unified against the Gringos – even those who do not subscribe to Chavez’s concepts.
Chavismo will defeat the US because it has moral power. Trump’s America has lost that, not that it ever really had it.
Asabiyyah
The Chavistas have that asabiyyah.
Do Americans?
They kill people outside the US capriciously and fund genocide. Inside the US, masked and armed agents kill defenseless protestors.
If Americans have asabiyyah, it is not as a country, it is as people but in their local communities. The country will die - but those communities will survive and thrive.
Small is big.
Something more reassuring…
Ichi quotes JG Ballard
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