THIS WORK IS LICENSED UNDER A Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
by Ivan Danilov / The Saker / Translated by Scott
A Russian tactical support fighter considered for Venezuelan air force.
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he crisis in Venezuela has once again brought into question why the Russian state, as well as state-owned companies, invest money and issue loans to some countries. Many journalists and experts have already rushed with pleasure to calculate alleged financial losses of the Russian side, forgetting both that Caracas has not yet fallen and pro-American usurper has not won yet, and that Russia is not the USSR and is not engaged in charity.
It is particularly instructive to compare two strains of American propaganda: one aimed at the Russian audience through the American NGOs and the media-lured “leaders of public opinion,” and the other — aimed at the Venezuelan audience through lured Venezuelan politicians. The message “the money of the Russian budget and Rosneft went to useless support of the Venezuelan regime and will never be returned” targets the Russian audience, and the message “Russia robbed Venezuela with the help of bonded loans and contracts, taking control of a significant part of Venezuelan oil” targets the Venezuelan audience. It is easy to see that according to the laws of logic in one case the American propaganda should lie, because it is impossible to be a stupid benefactor and ruthless moneylender at the same time. However, in reality, the situation is even more interesting: American propaganda lies in both cases: Russia and Russian state-owned companies are not “geopolitical Shylock,” and they are not “geopolitical mother Teresa,” either. Moscow really helped and will continue to help Caracas, while always sensibly combining idealism with pragmatism.
Let’s start with the fact that Russia is not the main creditor of the Venezuelan economy and not even the second most important. If we take the Western (the most unflattering for Russia) estimates from the Bloomberg business information agency, it turns out that the leader in investments and loans is China with 70 billion dollars, but the honorable second place belongs to very influential and very respectable banks and investment funds, mainly from the US and the UK. According to the most conservative estimates quoted in the Reuters material, they lent to the governments of Chavez and Maduro, as well as the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA to the amount of about $50 billion.
Among Venezuela’s creditors there are such giants of the financial world as the American investment conglomerate BlackRock (the largest investment fund in the world, assets under management — 6,789 trillion dollars) and the most influential American Bank Goldman Sachs, which is known for its extraordinary opportunities of political lobbying in the US and the European Union. By the way, the Venezuelan opposition has repeatedly said that it will not pay the debts of the “anti-people regime” (especially the opposition does not want to pay the Goldman Sachs Bank, which literally saved Maduro in 2017). So, paradoxically, several very large and influential American financial companies are rooting for Maduro , because they are unlikely to want to run into a “write-off in the name of democracy” for at least $50 billion.
For comparison, the highest estimate of the total amount of loans and investments made by Russian structures in Venezuela is $17 billion, and this amount does not take into account some important aspects. First, Venezuela has long been paying off Russian and Chinese creditors with oil and shares in Venezuela’s oil fields — and this has been generating serious revenues for Venezuelan creditors for many years.
Secondly, Russian loans (it is worth noting that a similar scheme is used by the US, China, the UK and EU countries around the world) are often tied to the supply of Russian goods and services — that is, the money has already turned into salaries, for example, for domestic gunsmiths. So, to speak about losses of $17 billion is at least inaccurate and more than premature.
No sanctions can explain the fact that the key Venezuelan assets, bringing the country’s main foreign exchange revenue (for example, an oil refinery and a network of Citgo gas stations), are located in the USA and in all the years of confrontation with America, the official Caracas did not bother to sell them and buy something similar in any other — friendly to Venezuela — country.
No sanctions can explain an absolutely insane policy of monetary stimulation of the economy, which has led to the fact that inflation in Venezuela has long been measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of percent per annum, undermining the economy and the standard of living of the population so that even toilet paper becomes a luxury product. It is time for Caracas (as well as some Russian economists) to realize that it is impossible to solve economic and social problems by “printing and distributing money.” According to the Central Bank of Venezuela for October 2018, which refers to Trading Economics, inflation in Venezuela was more than 1 300 000% — a level when the national currency turns into a wrapper, which can only be use to heat up a house during the next power outage. The fact that Venezuelans massively support Maduro despite the fact that prices increase by at least a few tens of percent every day for several years — a real miracle. Again, hyperinflation cannot be attributed to sanctions or falling oil prices. It is enough to look at the country on which American sanctions, American intervention and civil war hit much harder — Syria. According to the CIA, at the peak of the war in 2016, the Assad administration managed to keep inflation at only 43.9%, and in 2017 it was brought down to 25.5%-that is, inflation is falling, and the economy is gradually returning to normal.
This example clearly shows the difference in financial discipline, and this comparison is clearly not in favor of Caracas.
We are now witnessing a rather acute political crisis, but for Venezuela such crises are, unfortunately, almost routine. Suffice is to recall actively supported by the US riots in 2014 and 2017, during which the legitimate government in Caracas also kept literally in the balance. If the administration of Maduro this time, too, will be able to keep the situation, it may even bring positive results at least in terms of changing the economic policy of the Venezuelan leadership, which just a few months ago (although Venezuela has been in a difficult economic crisis for many years) asked the Russian leadership to develop a plan for the normalization of the Venezuelan economy. If the legitimate government retains power and if the Russian plan is adopted for implementation, Venezuela will have a good chance to get out of the crisis and dramatically reduce its risks in the future. This will be good for Venezuela itself and for all its economic partners.
Addendum
Venezuela has been preparing for a US-sponsored coup and invasion for a long time. Most Venezuelans know what they are facing.
THIS WORK IS LICENSED UNDER A Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Correspondent Martin Markovits takes an in-depth look into the rise of military spending in Venezuela, as the country passes Brazil to be become South America's largest importer of arms, and the 13th largest worldwide.
Editor's Note: This report, which is illuminating in some regards (the images tend NOT to lie after all), was filed (in 2013) by China's main international tv network, CGTN, yet its tone is one that I find disturbingly erratic and equivocal. At times it sounds like it approves of Venezuela's right to arm itself against imperialist attack (an indisputable fact); other times it sounds like CNN or Aljazeera, as if it were critiquing Venezuela for defending itself, showing a witness who sounds like a typical Venezuelan oppositionist. That's why I would give this report only 3.0 stars out of 5. Perhaps today (2019) their tone would be clearer and more in favor of Venezuela, but in 2013, apparently they were hedging their bets. The overall slant was so ambiguous that I first thought the Google/State Departent oh so "helpful" advisory that the video was contributed by a state foreign entity, was referring to Taiwan and not mainland China. What gives?
by Chris Faure for The Saker Blog (a fraternal site)
(*This is accurate at the time of posting —Jan. 27, 2019—but the situation is still developing fast. Updated comments at the end.)
Nikki Haley, J. Bolton, M. Pompeo—not just above the law, well outside it. And with impunity. Impudent criminals by any international legal standard.
[dropcap]I[/dropcap]t came as no surprise this past week when the US Administration made good on their promises to attempt to Regime Change Venezuela, the third part of John Bolton’s Troika of Tyranny, the other parts being Cuba and Nicaragua.
But there were a few surprises.
Saker readers would be familiar with John Perkins’ The Economic Hitman where he explained how Latin American leaders compliant to Western hegemony are bought and non-compliant leaders are removed, frequently with extreme prejudice. In Perkins’ time, these adventures were hidden, because they are illegal.
The first surprise here is the open and flagrant manner in which this coup d’état is proceeding, as if it is a great accomplishment. The Regime Changers are proud and beating their chests like gorillas with their illegal action as if the accomplishment is already in the bag. But is it? Despite Venezuela being a socially divided country between poor and rich, I believe there has been enough knowledge transfer to the ordinary Venezuelan so that this time, the Regime Change is not yet ‘in the bag’.
The second surprise was the sheer theatrical component of this attempted coup d’état, and that the script and the technology of regime change is openly visible. The ones that are supporting the coup d’état, acted in concert, as a bunch of bullies would, with each part nicely scripted down to the 5 minutes. This will become clearer as we continue.
The third surprise is that in the UNSC meeting yesterday (Saturday, January 26) there probably has never been a more thorough listing of regime-change operations in Latin America. This was listed both by the Russian Representative and the Venezuelan Foreign Minister. This history is now clear and public, for all to see.
So, what happened in Venezuela this past week and why now? Why is it so urgent that over 70 experts immediately called for the US to Stop Interfering in Venezuela and what prompted, for example, Peter Koenig to immediately broadcast this appeal? Venezuela – An Appeal to Russia, China and all Unaligned Countries for Support of Sovereign Venezuela
Let’s look at the timeline, then some editorial comment and lastly we look at who stands in the proverbial corner as allies with Venezuela and possible outcomes.
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]his week, Vice President Mike Pence of the USA called on the people of Venezuela to take to the streets against their elected government and called for the security forces of Venezuela to back this barefaced regime change called for by the US. He even prepared this video addressing the People of Venezuela, replete with badly accented Spanish assuring the People of Venezuela that “we [the US] are with you.” ‘Estamos con ustedes’ in a fake accent that makes the language of Spanish blush! He even had the temerity to use the term “Libertad” after years of brutal US imposed sanctions and various attempts at regime change over many years in Venezuela. Then, he ends with a distinctly pecksniffian ‘Vaya con Dios’, i.e, ‘Go with God’, he tells the Venezuelans. Besides the fact that this phrase is not even used in common Latin American speech and belongs to the genre of bad old 1950’s soap operas, it is truly the only piece that I agreed with. The Venezuelans will be much better placed to ‘Go with God’ than to ‘Go with Pence’.
The very next day, in what later turned out to be a paid leader of one of the smaller opposition groups, a certain Juan Guaidó holds an opposition rally in Caracas and declares himself “interim president of Venezuela” while denouncing incumbent Nicolas Maduro as “usurper.” This was just after a phone call with Pence.
Literally, just a few minutes later, the script runs and US President Trump by Tweet pronounced Guaidó as the legitimate interim president. Within about half an hour, more scripting as Canada follows suit as well as several right-wing South American governments allied with Washington. These declarations were written down in formulaic form, and the similarity of the words and the denouncements is clear.
This prompted Paul Craig Roberts to quip: Washington Has Appointed A President For Venezuela. He soon followed up with this piece “The Exceptional Nation Asserts Its Exceptionalism” and he asks:
“How long will other powers tolerate Washington’s illegality and aggression? How long will Americans tolerate the shame that Washington heaps upon their shoulders?”
In a display of brass effrontery and audacity, French President Macron announces that he supports “the restoration of democracy” in Venezuela and salutes “the courage of the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans marching for their freedom”, while in his own country he deploys riot police against the gilets jaunes (yellow vests).
Can you see that this coup d’état was planned on a tight timeline with the focus on quickly gathering enough world leaders to support it? The group that was pulled together for the coup planning is named the Lima Group. This group does not have formal standing and may have been fabricated for the distinct purpose of coup planning. They are now quoted as if they have gravitas.
Saturday January 27th, just before the UNSC met to discuss this, we have almost identical threats from France, Germany & Spain issued almost at the same time, to recognize Venezuela’s self-appointed president. The Venezuelan envoy to the UN quite rightly mentioned that the speeches in the UNSC sounds scripted and they are. In circumstances like these, we always get the embarrassing faux pas. The British representative told with relish how Maduro won the previous election (May last year) by stuffing ballot boxes. Well, Venezuela does not use ballot boxes. (Would it be sporting to call him ‘Qué idiota!‘? Let’s not be so rude and stick to ‘La marioneta‘ for now).
So, the next step back in Venezuela on Thursday, was that President Maduro announces cutting off diplomatic ties with the US and orders American diplomats to leave Venezuela within 72 hours. This has subsequently changed to something that is not clear at the time of writing. [Some say it is now 30 days.—Ed)
And here is the fairytale theater: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says that since Maduro is no longer the legitimate president he has no authority to sever diplomatic ties with Washington [that the diplomats will stay] and Trump and Pompeo threaten that “all options are on the table” – meaning military action – “if US personnel are endangered.” Wait a moment, let’s parse this down. First, they say Maduro is no longer President. Second, despite being no longer President, they hold him accountable for acts of violence against protestors? So, mob protestors can run free and create mayhem, because Maduro is in any event responsible? Truly Alice-in-Wonderland ‘off with her head’ methodology.
The situation is prime for an escalation. The main demand from the Western stooges seems to be new elections within 8 days and the West will ‘pave the way for a brighter future for Venezuela’. One cannot help but ask where they were up to now? And, what about those years of sanctions? And what about the engineered scarcity by multinational organizations of basic household goods because there are price controls in Venezuela to avoid excessive profiteering and gouging?
Why now?
[dropcap]I[/dropcap]t certainly seems that Russia’s more visible alliance with Caracas may have triggered the timing for this coup. Last month, Maduro visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and they signed multi-billion-dollar partnerships for oil exploration, mining, agricultural and other trade ties.
Within days of Maduro’s visit to the Kremlin, two Russian Tupolev Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers flew 10,000 kilometers to Venezuela in a political (certainly not a military) show of Moscow’s support for Venezuela.
Washington’s reaction to the Russian bombers landing in Caracas was one of rage, indignation and sheer apoplexy.
All of John Perkins’ financial warfare techniques are being employed, as well as a few new ones. The one is called lawfare where local laws and constitutions are twisted to the extent that the underpinnings of the legal basis that a country functions within, is reduced to shreds. We saw this technique used to good effect in Brazil in April 2016, with the impeachment of Dilma Roussef and the jailing of Lula da Silva.
All however is not rolling out as the Coup Planners figured and the scripted theater is obvious.
– Maduro is managing to keep Venezuela calm and the last few nights there was no violent protesting. He speeched on Friday to urge dialog.
– Caracas Reporter Says: ‘US Plot in Venezuela Failing’
– Take a look at the meeting of the OAS (The Organization of American States), where the first proclamation in the constitution of this body is that American countries will not interfere internally in the affairs of one another. At this body, Pompeo tried to get other countries to knuckle under and agree with the US power grab. He failed. (I’m sure what helped him fail, is that he could not even pronounce the name of the Interim Puppet President that the US tried to elect. The beloved and oh so competent Gweedo indeed! He was also late to the meeting. The OAS is a formal mainly Spanish speaking organization and this did not go unnoticed). The OAS is now in disarray. https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14241
– The Coup Planners also failed in getting the Venezuelan people to revolt, to get the Venezuelan military to revolt and to overthrow Maduro, which was the plan.
– The last two days in Venezuela were calm days after a fiery speech by Maduro that Venezuelans do not harm other Venezuelans.
– On Friday, Maduro is still in charge of the palace and Guaido (Gwaido, not Gweedo, but I might change my mind here, he may indeed turn out to be a Gweedo) gave what Venezuelanalysis.com calls duelling speeches. Guaido is still calling on the Venezuela armed forces to rise up against the Government, but his speech was given in a wealthy part of Caracas and he is holding as bait, all the money that will come from the US if the armed forces will rise up. The Venezuelan people inherently do not trust money promises.
– Maduro held a full press conference in Miraflores Palace saying that the US has no say in Venezuelan affairs. Apart from the press, his address was attended by scores of public officials, including ministers and numerous representatives of the armed forces. He also announced military drills. https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14255
– Caricom is not supporting this external meddling.
– At the UNSC on Saturday morning, the Coup Planners again failed to prevail as many countries spoke against the illegality of the Coup. China, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa, Russia, Nicaragua, Cuba, Bolivia, Saint Vicent, the Grenadines, Barbados, and Suriname, were among the countries that expressed their recognition of the legitimate and constitutional Venezuelan government.
So, where are we now?
GOP's Marco Rubio—a vile warmongering imperialist gusano. No wonder he's done terrifically in the US political system. He's one of the chief plotters behind this unfolding aggression on Venezuela, and possibly Nicaragua and Cuba herself.
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he Coup Planners believe in their coup and they are as busy as little mice staffing up to rule Venezuela via an erstwhile ”La marioneta Gweedo‘. Their first appointment is someone that you may recognize immediately, and the next appointment you will remember from a little further back in history.
1. The Dream Team writing up a new set of laws for Venezuela to “ensure Venezuela’s transition into a better future”: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will be bringing humanitarian aid, Donna Shalala will stop the arming of Maduro’s thugs with batons and tear gas, while (yes, this is no joke) Debbie Wasserman Schultz gets arguably the hardest task of them all – taking on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. https://www.rt.com/op-ed/449686-debbie-schultz-fixing-venezuela/
2. The Arch Neocon of neocons, Elliott Abrams, who played a central role in the Iran-Contra scandal, and oversaw US regime-change wars in Nicaragua and El Salvador. His job is to “help the Venezuelan people fully restore democracy and prosperity to their country.” Abrams is expected to coordinate all diplomatic efforts to replace President Nicolas Maduro with the self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido, recognized by the US, OAS and several EU members. https://www.rt.com/usa/449756-abrams-pompeo-venezuela-iran-contra/
Dr Jill Stein’s comments on the appointment of Abrams – Dr. Jill Stein? Verified account @DrJillStein
Trump’s Venezuela point man Elliott Abrams:
-Backed death squads in Latin America that murdered 1000s for right-wing dictators
-Lied to Congress to cover up treasonous Iran-Contra affair
-Led 2002 US coup d’état attempt in Venezuela
Still think this is about democracy & human rights?
Comments
[dropcap]I[/dropcap]t is clear that Venezuela is struggling for existence while living under debilitating sanctions. It is also clear that after the last elections, and with the help of Russia and China, they made progress. But how can one make progress if a coup plotter promises to pay the coup executor with Venezuelan assets that were previously confiscated under a sanctions regime? Also, the country’s gold is being held hostage by Britain.
SIDEBAR by Patrice Greanville
The filthy Times (of London) now the property of a disinformation criminal of global dimensions, Rupert Murdoch, whose empire also includes Fox News, could not resist attacking Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on its front page (quoting of course Britain's pathetic "foreign secretary," Jeremy Hunt) for supporting Maduro. Hunt, who sports a deep-seated arrogance inherent in the job, accuses Maduro—inter alia— of having "stuffed the boxes" to win the last election, even though Venezuela does not use ballot boxes, but a modern digital system which has been tested and supervised by numerous international observers.
There are many accusations against Venezuela, and some have merit. One of the legitimate accusations against Venezuela is the level of migration. It is not well known that there is an active program inside Venezuela to bring the migrants home. Even that is interfered with. https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ecuador-Delays-Venezuelan-Planes-of-Return-to-Homeland-Plan-20190126-0008.html
The fact of the matter here is not that ‘Maduro is Bad’, or ‘Socialism is Evil’, or ‘Venezuela is an economic basket case‘ or any of those excuses that we see in the public domain from ‘too-quick-thinkers’ and expat Venezuelans. (Is it really an economic basket case if Venezuelan assets in the West are being held hostage as a result of sanctions?) The fact of the matter is that there is flagrant and illegal regime change being carried out in front of our eyes to the benefit of globalist sociopathic mobsters.
To the average American that is supporting this overt and barefaced attempt to take over and control another country, you cannot further support the thinking that your current administration is fighting globalism. These are your globalists, the Pompous Pompeo’s and Brutal Boltons and Pious Pences, with Mr Trump twittering the threat chants like a cheerleader. The appointments mentioned above, the Dream Team, is a team from the Democratic party. What’s all the more inflammatory is the flagrant illegality of Washington’s actions.
The opposition figure whom the White House has anointed as “acting president” but is actually “acting stooge puppet” and the minor congressional body he is backed by inside of Venezuela has been declared in contempt of the constitution by Venezuela’s supreme court. They are carrying out the steps to globalism in front of our very eyes and right now. They could not overthrow Venezuela’s government, so, they are trying to split it by paying US$200,000 to a usurper, that did not even take part in the previous elections, and they paid him to declare himself Interim President. Furthermore, they are offering money, but this money is not new money, it is money that has been taken by seizures, from Venezuela, under sanctions regulations. So, they are offering to pay their imposed President/Stooge/Puppet money that they confiscated to split Venezuela even further.
Why does this Latin American, Caribbean country called Venezuela tug at our heartstrings? Is it because despite all headwinds, all previous attempts at fomenting revolution and fomenting regime change, they stood strong against the globalists and neocons? I would suggest it is. I would suggest Venezuela is in the mold of Syria who has been fighting a war for their own self-determination for years now. I would suggest Venezuela is in the mold of Russia, that is grimly holding on to their own self-determination and building. I would suggest that the people of Venezuela will not tumble as this regime change further unfolds. They have not tumbled up to now.
Which Venezuelans do you care about? More than 50% of the country is Mestizo. What is your problem if these social people want some form of socialism? What if they feel that income from Venezuelan Oil is to be used to increase living standards for the whole country and the poor? What about their type of Socialism? Do you really believe that Maduro is similar to Saddam Hussein as he is now being represented by the Coup Planners and he is killing and incarcerating his own people at a tremendous rate? Have you not heard this type of accusation before, usually to drum up pretexts and de-legitimize a victim for a war? Let the Venezuelan people vote out Maduro if they do not like him. In reality, they do like him. Do you really think that Brazilians will act as a proxy military force to destabilize Venezuela? Will Colombia provide soldiers for boots on the ground in Venezuela?
Let’s take a look at some young Venezuelans and their grasp of what is happening.
This is what the young Venezuelans are saying: “Trump is a little out of touch. Why would he come and save us. He only wants our oil and our riches.”
“What happened (in other Latin American countries), will not happen here, because of the consciousness of the people.”
https://twitter.com/EmpireFiles/status/998834055620706304
This is what the young Venezuelan soldiers are saying: (Offered with support from Colombia).
“Listen, yankee, to what I’m going to say! In my country, you will never invade! Get over here because a beating is coming your way! We will be your Latin American Vietnam!”
https://twitter.com/futb0livariano/status/1087125667551031297
Despite what Governments say, there is a real understanding at grassroots level among the Latin American people that what can happen to Venezuela today, can happen to them tomorrow. Living in a Latin American country, I heard this being expressed a few times during the course of yesterday alone. “Hoy Venezuela, mañana nosotros”. Today Venezuela, tomorrow it will be our turn. So, despite the right leaning governments in Latin America, it is fair to say that the people know what the real deal is.
The hegemon is calmly walking into a constitutional crisis or a war or a civil war in Venezuela that may eventually look like Moscow, Black October 1993. Today Venezuela may be an economically failed state, but with good support and guidance from Russia, China and their other friends, they can still get out of this. In terms of the strength of their people, there is no failure.
Let’s take a look at the larger allies of Venezuela.
[dropcap]F[/dropcap]irst we have Russia. President Putin spoke to Maduro and gave him real solid help and support.
President Putin Stands Up For President Maduro – Washington Coup CAN Be Stopped if Right Moves Made!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=240&v=daY7RdIN5f4
China
Always muted with nuanced language, China has made investment in Venezuela and they buy Venezuelan oil. China will not just sit back here, but it is hard to see what they will do – probably some asymmetrical action. Bear in mind that there are more trade talks scheduled for the coming week and a supposed 2nd meeting with Kim -Jung Un of North Korea. I would expect nuanced action from China.
India
New Delhi: “Following the US recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela, India has refused Washington’s call to recognize the opposition leader, saying that crisis should be resolved by the “people of Venezuela” through “constructive dialogue”. https://www.thewire.in/diplomacy/india-backs-nicolas-maduro-refuses-to-recognise-guaido-as-venezuelas-interim-president
India will continue to buy Venezuelan crude. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/venezuela-will-continue-to-sell-oil-to-india-envoy/article24646263.ece
Mexico
Although standing strong in their non-aligned status, they have declared that they will work on regional strength and Venezuela is not outside of the scope of the region. Mexico, the Caricom countries and Russia have offered internal mediation and help to Venezuela.
So, if we count Russia, China, India and Mexico alone, we are looking at 4 countries that are on the list of having the highest populations in the world. https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats8.htm
I would certainly say it is a sizable opposition to the attempted Coup Planners.
Caricom – https://caricom.org/communications/view/statement-by-the-conference-of-heads-of-government-of-caricom-on-the-latest-developments-in-the-situation-in-the-bolivarian-republic-of-venezuela
So, what can we theorize could be the expected outcomes?
None of us has a crystal ball and it is too early to say.
[dropcap]I[/dropcap] would suggest that this phase of the attempted coup itself will fail, although the damage to the country of Venezuela, its people and its existence will be vast. The coup will fail because it is hamfisted and with the expectation of a ‘quick win’, there is no plan B that does not include the option of violence. The Coup Planners expected immediate victory but this was not to be. If history is a guide, the Coup Planners will double down, and double down yet again. In the past, a coup like this would be hidden because it is illegal. This one is out in the open; it cannot be argued and the coup planners engage in chest beating and a clear strategy, although not very well executed. Venezuela and its friends must prepare for a long siege.
It is clear that the situation on the ground is not understood by the Coup Planners. The real sense of hamfisted Spanish in Pence’s video, the defeat at the OAS, The Caricom announcement, the inability to pronounce the name of the new supposed interim leader by Pompeo and such other things is not falling on deaf ears in the Latin American population. The will of the Venezuelan people and their demonstrated abilities to withstand regime change cannot be underestimated. Venezuelans are well experienced about withstanding coups, as they’ve lived through a number of them.
The proposed Interim Puppet President Gweedo is clearly not of the strength to push through a coup as he is mainly in hiding. Venezuela is not bursting out into violence. The military and defense forces stand with Maduro. This is a principled and strong position but, one must bear in mind, against a strong enemy.
Despite the various governments in Latin America that became right leaning and had their governments appointed by the Hegemon, the people in Latin America understand where their opposition comes from. I cannot see Brazil or Colombia sending troops on the ground. The Venezuelan right is not united. American troops? Trump will most probably lose his base. I cannot see this.
The most scary scenario (very unlikely at present) would be that NATO Troops may be called in via Colombia.
The most probable outcome is that we see a protracted doubling down from the Coup Planners and a long period of just continued hammering at Venezuela on all levels. She will need all her allies firmly in her corner.
We wait to see if anyone raises a word against this illegal attempted coup and the Coup Planners in the United Nations Security Council.
Judging from the comments in the UNSC just yesterday, we may see the Monroe Doctrine being seriously challenged.
……………………………..
Updates
The full UNSC meeting can be found here:
“The United States is the one that should be evaluated (and not Venezuela) for its permanent disrespect and interference in external political affairs.”
“How is it possible that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who militarily threatened Venezuela, has not been questioned by the world?”
“How can it be possible for a lawmaker to proclaim himself president and for international governments to recognize him?”
“Force is being imposed on the law. That is dangerous and we must stop it here from the United Nations.”
A recent history of the run-up to the current point in time can be found here: https://venezuelanalysis.com/audio/14251.
Despite using the name Gweedo for some comical effect, the man’s name is Juan Guaidó
There is a big number of independent writers and bloggers and formal and less formal analysts speaking out about this travesty of justice in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. This is heartening to see. Moon of Alabama has a list of Media Claims About Venezuela Are Lies Or Misconceptions. #Venezuela hashtag on Twitter contains a number of opinions.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Revolutionary wisdom
Words from an Irish patriot—
|
Grafitti in Merida, Venezuela [dropcap]Y[/dropcap]esterday the U.S. recognized a right-wing 'leader of the opposition' in Venezuela Juan Guaido as the president of the country. A number of right-wing led countries in South America joined in that move. Cuba, Bolivia and Mexico rejected it. Russia, China, Iran and Turkey continue to support the the government of the elected President Nicolas Maduro and spoke out against the coup attempt. The European Union has no united opinion with the neo-liberal led France being pro-coup and Spain standing against it. Venezuela must prepare for a multi year conflict while doing everything to keep it as short as possible. This long planned U.S. move against the legitimate government of Venezuela is just the start. It is designed to lead to escalation and very soon mission creep - 'We can't stop here!' - will set in. More than 300 billion barrels of oil, the biggest oil reserves in the world, are at stake. U.S. stooge Guaido promises to change Venezuela's oil law to the advantage of the U.S., while the Bolivarian government uses the oil to support the poor. The game plan for the current U.S. regime-change operation against the government of Venezuela was written by Senator Marco Rubio with the support of Vice President Pence: The American recognition of Mr. Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president is far more than a symbolic measure, and presents new complications for Mr. Maduro.The idea was avidly promoted by Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican who pushed the Trump administration to take such a step. In a speech to the Senate on Jan. 15, Mr. Rubio said that designating Mr. Guaidó as president would allow millions of dollars of Venezuelan government assets frozen in the United States to be at the disposal of opposition lawmakers, who could use them to fund new elections or humanitarian assistance. The real amount the U.S. and Britain have 'frozen', or practically stolen, from Venezuela amount to several billion dollars, not just a few millions. Such 'freezing' of money owned by governments the U.S. does not like has become all too common. Together with a raft of other sanctions the economic war the U.S. has long waged against the country made the recovery of the Venezuelan economy nearly impossible. As the U.S. is now likely to confiscate all money that is supposed to flow to Venezuela the country must stop its oil-exports to the United States. A number of U.S. refineries, some owned by Venezuela, depend on the special grade of Venezuelan oil and would soon run into trouble. That could help to change the mood in Washington. China may be interested in buying more Venezuelan oil. The opposition in Venezuela will probably use access to that 'frozen' money to buy weapons and to create an army of mercenaries to fight a 'civil' war against the government and its followers. Like in Syria U.S. special forces or some CIA 'contractors' will be eager to help. The supply line for such a war would most likely run through Colombia. If, like 2011 in Syria, a war on the ground is planned it will likely begin in the cities near that border. But before a military conflict is launched the U.S. and the opposition in Venezuela will try other paths. After the U.S. announcement Venezuela's president Maduro ordered all U.S. diplomats in Caracas to leave the country within 72 hours. As the U.S. no longer recognizes Maduro it rejected that. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo announced to "conduct our relations with Venezuela through the government of interim President Guaido." The rejection was most likely planned and is supposed to provoke a too harsh reaction like a storming of the embassy. Under a normal process the Venezuelan government would now arrest the U.S. diplomats as soon as they leave the legally protected embassy compound. They would be put on a plane and evicted from the country. But it seems likely that U.S. planned for this conflict and that the diplomats are prepared to stay in the embassy for a long time. The best for Venezuela to do now is to simply isolate the embassy. It must be well guarded to prevent false flag attacks against it. No visitors should be allowed. All the embassy's communication lines should be cut (it would still have satellite communication) and electricity and water should be rationed. Humanitarian aid should be conceded only after specific requests. It is important to play this 'by the book' so that the U.S. can not use the issue to escalate. The 'opposition leader' Juan Guaido committed treason. He, his staff and the people behind him must be found and imprisoned. They should be held in reasonable conditions but under strict military guard. Before starting a larger war the opposition will try to create unbearable chaos on the streets. Like during the failed violent demonstrations in 2016 the opposition rioters will be armed. Police will be attacked and people on both sides will die. The probably best way to keep this at a tolerable level is to snatch away those who are armed and violent. The police will need good ground level intelligence to achieve that. The U.S. seems prepared to see the coup through unless it has negative consequences for its own position. Domestically the illegal regime change attempt has support even from supposedly 'socialist' Democrats. The U.S. propaganda apparatus, the mainstream media and various propaganda 'bot' campaigns are fully engaged. The supposedly private social media companies in the U.S. - Facebook, Instagram and Twitter - have already de-recognized the official Maduro accounts. They no longer have a 'verified' tick mark. Voice of America shows (vid) Guaido declaring himself president among a crowd of a few hundred supporters. It then (1:05min) cuts to a much larger crowd at a different location falsely suggesting that he has a large following. There are trucks with anti-Maduro advertisements driving in U.S. cities and various propaganda accounts post false pictures or make otherwise false claims. This sudden change of location is cute in its fatuity: The Venezuelan government should consult with Syria and Russia on how to win such a conflict. The most important step Maduro has to take is to shore up his ground support. While the Bolivarian movement under Chavez and now Maduro still has a large backing, it lost some support from the poor due to the economic malaise after the fall of the oil prices. The situation is to some extent caused by U.S. sanctions but a significant part is also caused by misguided economic policies and corruption. The billions of credits and investment brought in by Russia and China have not been put to good use. A well concerted anti-corruption campaign will help to increase the public support and will give China and Russia more confidence to stick to the legitimate government. Another step must be an early dialog with reasonable parts of the opposition. While lots of people may not like the Maduro government many of them will disagree with the obviously U.S.-led intervention. These people can be won over. The Catholic church could be asked to mediate talks with them. The Venezuelan military has promised to support its elected president. He should use it to react early against any attempt of violent escalation. The lesson to learn from the conflict in Syria it is that a prolonged conflict will cause more casualties and damage than an early, sharp and thereby decisive reaction to an incubating war. I am confident that Venezuela and its people can resist this onslaught. But the government needs to respond rationally and decisively. It must consult closely with its major allies and plan for a prolonged conflict. Posted by b on January 24, 2019 at 12:59 PM | Permalink ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS
|
The odds against Maduro are enormous.
The Russians have already expressed support publicly with comments from FM Lavrov and President Putin calling the man. Russia is a stakeholder. It has intentions to invest more billions in the oil industry and it intends some sort of military facilities there.
The big external stakeholder is China with claims on half the oil output for repayment of prior loans. 50 Billion Dollars is a large stake and China may not do what it did in Libya. In 2011, China left Libya in the lurch and left behind immense infrastructure projects that were total losses during the war by NATO.
Part of this move by the US is to obstruct Russia and China's influence and inroads in Latin America. Only part of it is focused on Maduro's catastrophically failed government.
Chavez's dream is over. It died with him. The rest, the hope for social justice, is now going to be crushed because Maduro had no skills or intellect to be the successor.
Maduro is like Lula and Dima. The hope and dreams of Brazil are in the toilet while a true fascist is President, duly elected by a hopeless nation of poor people disgusted by corruption and failure.
Whether there are enough people in the streets who will stand with Maduro, we will soon discover. If the military down through the ranks holds, he may survive for awhile.
But the hard cold fact is, the faux President must die if Maduro is to prevail. Guaido alive, in Venezuela or in Miami or Washington or anywhere, means Maduro cannot get back the reins of his nation. Everything the US is doing depends on Guaido staying alive.
Otherwise, the US+friends will have to invade. They don't want to do that, even using a proxy army of Colombians and Brazilians.
In the ensuing weeks, maybe a month or two, the US will offer Maduro a deal like they gave to Philippine President Marcos. They won't prosecute him and he will have free passage to leave.
If not, Venezuela's Maduro regime will be branded narco-terrorist and sanctioned to death.
Note that Erdogan is against the US move. Perhaps, he senses the eventual US coup move coming his way one day.
Only the strongest leaders of the major nations have spoken against the US doing this against Maduro.
The rest are silent or have fallen in line, backing the Hegemon.
Posted by: Red Ryder | Jan 24, 2019 2:03:38 PM | 6