The Psy-Covert Ops Masterstroke
In a masterstroke of psyops meet covert ops, the CIA and other intelligence agencies which have hitherto been extremely hostile towards Trump appear to have rightly calculated that a recreation of Obama’s 2013 chemical weapons false flag attack would suffice for pressuring the President to recant his earlier stance towards Syria and return to the openly aggressive one advocated by his predecessor. The reason for this is straightforward, and it’s because Trump doesn’t want his Mideast legacy to be “just like Obama’s” in the sense of “backing down” in the face of what is falsely being presented by the Mainstream Media as a gruesome chemical weapons attack committed by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
Judging by Trump’s newfound “change of heart” towards Syria as articulated during his press conference alongside the Jordanian King, this twofold hybrid operation of pairing a psyop with a covert one has thus far been a success, as the President has now openly hinted that a conventional military strike on the SAA might be in the cards. Moreover, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley also left open the option of a unilateral attack if the Security Council failed to approve a Libya-like resolution which could create the ‘legal’ pretext for one anyhow.
In hindsight, the latest chemical weapons false flag drama in Syria looks to have been orchestrated in order to advance a series of predictable scenarios that the Pentagon and CIA have been working towards for months already. The author wrote about these more in detail for his 21st Century Wire analysis titled “Syria: Approaching the Finishing Line, Geopolitical ‘Jockeying for Position’ Intensifies”, in which it was put forth that the US is actively working to carve up Syria into a “federation” of quasi-independent identity-centric statelets, which now looks set to expand past its Kurdish core to include a Salafist one in Idlib or elsewhere through multilateral ‘coalition of the willing’ or UN ‘peacekeeper’ support.
Domestic And International Contexts
Domestic:
All of these fast-moving events are occurring in particular domestic and international contexts for the US, and for Trump personally. On the home front, it was just revealed almost immediately prior to the false flag attack that Susan Race – by her own admission – had “unmasked” members of Trump’s campaign and transition teams, strongly suggesting that despite her expected denials, the former National Security Advisor had broken the law to spy on Trump and probably did so at Obama’s bidding. On the same day as Trump’s shock policy announcement about Syria, it was also disclosed that his Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon had left the National Security Council (NSC), though the ideologue insists that this was only because his mission to “de-operationalize” Rice’s legacy had been completed.
The curious domestic timing of the false flag attack lends credence to the idea that it was designed to deflect attention away from the Rice-Obama wiretapping scandal, and there are grounds for speculating that Bannon’s dismissal from the NSC might have been part of the Clintonian Counter-Revolution which has been incessantly waged against Trump ever since his election. The latter has among its chief goals a Machiavellian divide-and-rule outcome in which external forces succeed in turning Trump and his close circle against one another just like what they ended up doing with Flynn recently.
If any of these two assertions are true – that the false flag was carried out to distract from the Rice-Obama scandal and/or was somehow timed to coincide with Bannon’s NSC dismissal – then it would signify that the “deep state” is manufacturing international crises in order to achieve domestic dividends.
International:
There’s also the international context which needs to be considered, too, and it’s that reports had just begun to circulate right before the false flag attack that Trump had given Rep. Tulsi Gabbard a secret message to convey to President Assad during her January visit to the country. One day prior to the attack, Trump had also called President Putin to convey his sympathies over the suicide bombing in the St. Petersburg metro and, in the words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, “The presidents noted that terrorism is the evil against which it is necessary to fight together.” All things considered, there’s a chance that Trump was on the brink of defying the “deep state’s” plans for Syria and unprecedentedly cooperating with both Presidents Assad and Putin in fighting Daesh.
As it turned out, however, the false flag chemical weapons attack occurred almost immediately thereafter and put a sudden stop to any realistic possibility that such a scenario would unfold, or at least not in the near future. Whether he’s paying lip service to the neocons or is sincere in what he said, Trump has been backed into a corner by this hybrid psy-covert op and is now on the horns of a dilemma. He has to either swallow his pride and have his 2016 Syria false flag moment “ignominiously” compared to Obama’s 2013 one in also failing to militarily respond to a chemical weapons false flag attack (despite Trump interestingly speaking out against such a response previously), or fall for the trap of “protecting” his desired “anti-Obama” legacy and going forward with the neocons’ plans.
Deep State Designs
The “deep state” wants Trump to take an even more direct and conventional approach to internally partitioning (“federalizing”) Syria than he already is, which they believe is necessary in order to both “send a message to Russia” and safeguard their anticipated gains. This might ultimately see the large-scale and rapid insertion of US troops into the battlespace, perhaps alongside Turkish and Saudi-led “coalition” forces and eventually followed by UN ‘peacekeepers’. This isn’t baseless guesswork, either, since Sputnik reported earlier this week that the US was “developing a ground force to defeat Al Qaeda in northwest Syria”, an effort which they quoted a senior State Department official as saying had thus far been “very difficult”.
Now that the false flag chemical weapons attack has taken place, however, there’s a renewed impetus for assembling a multitude of American-aligned forces to commence this operation, one which might begin with the typical “no-fly zone” (which infers bombing the SAA’s anti-air units and installations) and quickly develop into a fulfillment of the “safe/security zones” blueprint that’s been spoken about for years already. Given that Erdogan just pledged that “there will be [operations] from now on (in Syria)” and that Ankara has “very good surprises for all terrorist groups, including…Daesh”, it’s indeed possible that Turkey might be planning to work hand-in-glove with the US on the prospective Idlib “no-fly zone” operation.
Although Turkish-US relations have been very frosty ever since the failed pro-US coup against Erdogan last summer, both sides might be betting that a joint operation in Idlib could be what’s needed to reset the relationship and compensate for the US’ scandalous support of the Syrian Kurds. The successful completion of this possible campaign could see Turkey becoming the ‘guardian’ of the new “moderate opposition rebel” alliance (Daesh 2.0) that the US is reportedly assembling around Idlib, which would consequently allow Turkey to guarantee the future existence of a Salafist “federalized” buffer statelet in northwestern Syria modelled off of the Kurdish one in the country’s northeast.
Rethinking Russia’s Syria Strategy
Changing Calculations:
It’s difficult to predict how Russia would react to any of these newfound strategic and military challenges, though possible indications might be seen in its recently changed attitude towards Syria.
The author published a two–part series for the Islamabad-based Regional Rapport analytical outlet critically examining “What In The World Just Happened To Russia’s Syria Strategy?”, which was then expanded upon in two articles for 21st Century Wire about “SYRIA: Cradle of Civilization and Pivot for the Global Power Games” and “SYRIA: Digging Into The Details Of The Russian-Written ‘Draft Constitution’”.
The most important conclusion that was reached in pertinence to the present piece is that Russia may have resigned itself to accepting the internal partition of Syria (which it euphemistically refers to as “decentralization”) and is unlikely to resort to military means in reversing what its strategists might already believe to be a fait accompli.
Reality Check:
Relatedly, it needs to be underscored that the Russian military mandate in Syria does not extend to protecting its ally’s borders or even intervening on behalf of the SAA, but is solely focused on fighting terrorism in the country. What this equates to in practice is that Moscow is under no military obligation whatsoever to defend Damascus, however much the author and many others in the Alt-Media Community may wish that it was.
The world has already seen how Russia repeatedly turns a blind eye to “Israel’s” occasional bombings of the SAA, Hezbollah, and Iran’s Islamic Republican Guard Corps; Turkey’s conventional military intervention in northern Syria through “Operation Euphrates Shield”; and the US’ conventional military intervention in northeastern Syria to help its Kurdish-led “Syrian Democratic Forces” proxy. All of these events have been officially condemned by Damascus as illegal violations of the country’s sovereignty, though the basic fact that they even occurred proves that Russia is not the military protector of Syria like some in the Alt-Media inaccurately portray it as.
A New Strategy:
Moreover, it can even be argued that Russia’s passive (or in the case of Turkey, active) acceptance of each of these three military occurrences is part of its new “19th-Century Great Power Chessboard” strategy whereby it seeks to maximize its Great Power engagement with its peers in pursuit of what it believes to be the “greater good” of multipolarity through deal-making, though at the perceived (key word) expense of its small- and medium-sized partners such as Syria in this case.
For example, Russia and “Israel” are allies despite the outright fake news that has taken hold of social media in pretending that President Putin is some sort of “anti-Zionist crusader”, which the author meticulously debunked in a two–part article series for The Duran on this topic. Likewise, Russia’s relations with Turkey are predicated on the concept of the fledging Tripartite that it aims to construct together with Iran, which was comprehensively elaborated on in a series of articles listed under the author’s 2017 Mideast forecast. Finally, as was touched upon in the author’s previously cited Regional Rapport articles, Russia’s blind eye to the US’ activities in northeastern Syria could be understood as a unilateral ‘concession’ out of ‘goodwill’ which the Kremlin might have mistakenly expected would result in reciprocal measures elsewhere and further the wished-for goal of a New Détente.
Russia’s new strategy in Syria follows the Neorealist principles of International Relations theory which are premised on the goal of power aggrandizement and geostrategy (regardless of how perceptively “amoral” or “cynical” it might come off as in the pursuit of the multipolar “greater good”), though with a touch of stereotypical Liberal optimism as it relates to hoping that the US and Russia could possibly be partners under a Trump-Putin New Détente. With an understanding of the impetuses which drive Russian policy towards Syria, it’s possible to prognosticate its reaction to the aforementioned scenario that the US might be planning for the Mideast country.
Will A Russian Reaction Translate Into A Russian Response?
Reacting, But Not Responding:
Given all that was analyzed in the subsections above, there aren’t many reasons to be hopeful that Russia would militarily intervene to stop a joint US-Turkish conventional intervention in Idlib, though it’s likely that Moscow will issue very sharp and highly publicized rebukes in conveying its supreme disapproval of this possible operation. No matter how much people might fantasize that it were any different, the provable reality is that US and Turkish troops are already in the country (with Russia occasionally entering into direct battlefield cooperation with the latter), and Moscow has a history of ignoring Tel Aviv’s periodic airstrikes against the SAA.
No S-400 “Air Bubble” For The SAA:
The US is already operating over Syrian airspace and could therefore suddenly launch air-borne cruise missiles against the SAA without any advance notice as part of its “no-fly zone” plans. Russia has never shot down or even fired at any of the “Israeli” jets which hostilely entered Syrian airspace with the express objective of attacking the SAA and its allies, so it might very well avoid doing so for the American ones which could seek to do the same thing. Remember, Moscow’s military mandate only covers anti-terrorist operations, not defending Damascus’ forces, and Russia probably wouldn’t even want to have that enlarged responsibility if it was being offered by the Syrian side.
Foreign Tanks And Troops Won’t Be Bombed:
Accepting the unlikelihood of Russia shooting down an American cruise missile barrage against Syria and/or directly targeting the aircraft tasked with carrying out this operation, the next question comes down to whether or not it would attack the conventional American and Turkish ground troops which might stream into Idlib at the same time. The answer, as painful as it is to write, is a resounding no, since Russia already hasn’t resorted to these measures against the Turkish troops in northern Syria or the American ones in the northeast, so it probably won’t change its mind just because they’ve joined together and are now invading Idlib.
Libya Redux:
To sum it all up, Russia will assuredly react to any intensified American aggression against Syria, whether executed unilaterally or together with its Turkish and possible Saudi-led “coalition” allies, but it won’t militarily respond to these moves in any way that would risk setting off a larger Great Power conflict.
Russia’s expected rhetoric would represent a moral victory, especially if it emphasized that the US was behaving in contravention of international law just like it was in Iraq and Libya, but this would actually be a pyrrhic one because its words would be powerless to change any of the rapidly unfolding events on the ground.
They might align with the prevailing “politically correct” zeitgeist in the Alt-Media community which self-righteously preaches the primacy of international law and Russia’s relative “moral” standing, but the “realpolitik” motivations which are guiding Russia’s strategists – for better or for worse – contradict these slogans.
Concluding Thoughts
Trump has been backed into a dangerous corner as a result of the neocons’ successful psy-covert ops masterstroke, which saw the US-backed “moderate opposition rebels” pull off a chemical weapons false flag attack almost identical to the one which happened in 2013, all for the effect of pressuring the President into going along with the “deep state’s” designs for Syria or risk “repeating Obama’s legacy”. For an individual as influenced by the public’s (manipulated) perception of himself as Trump is, and personally dedicated to being the “anti-Obama”, there’s a high chance that he might go along with the neocon agenda in order to “save face” and “protect his legacy”.
This means that the US might escalate its conventional War on Syria to the point of finally delivering on its years-long talked-about plans in setting up “safe/security zones” through a corresponding “no-fly zone” around Idlib, which would inseparably entail direct attacks against the SAA’s anti-air units and installations. Such an unprecedented move would instantly be met with a Russian rhetorical reaction but would more than likely lack a military counter-response owing to the “19th-Century Great Power Chessboard” and related “realpolitik” motivations which are guiding Moscow’s strategists at this moment.
Just as they passively allow (and in the case of “Operation Euphrates Shield”, sometimes actively work with) “Israel”, Turkey, and the US’ conventional military operations in Syria (in spite of occasional polemics against them), so too will Russia expectedly permit any unilateral or multilateral US-led mission around Idlib. This doesn’t mean that Russia is “selling out Syria” or “betraying its ally”, but only that Moscow is following its original anti-terrorist military mandate to a T in order to avoid being drawn into a larger Great Power conflict which it has no inclination to participate in.
On the other hand, there’s always the distant though still plausible possibility that Trump’s paying lip service to the neocons in order to buy some time for his speculated anti-terrorist cooperation with President’s Assad and Putin to eventually play out, which in that case would indicate that his words should only be taken at face value for the purpose of placating his rebellious “deep state” domestic audience. It would be ideal if this is the scenario that’s really happening right now, but at this point it seems to be a lot more wishful thinking than an objective reflection of reality.
In closing, the author would be delighted if forthcoming events proved him wrong and Trump was revealed to have been strong enough to bravely stay the course and stick to his previous strategy for Syria (however imperfect it originally was), though his decisive change of rhetoric in openly admitting that he “changed his mind” on the country and that Assad has “crossed many, many lines” point to the President being on the cusp of contemplating a major game-changing escalation in the War on Syria.
______________________________________
DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution.
ABOUT THIS AUTHOR
Andrew Korybko is a political analyst, journalist and a regular contributor to several online journals, as well as a member of the expert council for the Institute of Strategic Studies and Predictions at the People’s Friendship University of Russia. He specializes in Russian affairs and geopolitics, specifically the US strategy in Eurasia. His other areas of focus include tactics of regime change, color revolutions and unconventional warfare used across the world. His book, “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change”, extensively analyzes the situations in Syria and Ukraine and claims to prove that they represent a new model of strategic warfare being waged by the US.
What will it take to bring America to live according to its own self image?
Erdogan is fully supporting the US calling for no fly zones and the direct removal of Assad as soon as possible.
I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”.
I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”.
Time will show if your laughter is justified or not.
>> The Saker on April 07, 2017 · at 2:43 pm UTC
>>
>>I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”.
>
>Time will show if your laughter is justified or not.
Non-getters don’t get it, hence the justified name.
I fully agree with Anonymous on April 07, 2017 · at 1:53 pm UTC
Erdogan is playing Russia off against the US, a dangerous game. He may not survive the next assassination attempt, if his continual turn-coat actions outweigh his usefulness to the Syria/Russia project of an integrated Syria. Putin doesn’t need a new leader/100%-unknown factor in Turkey until the current Zionist/US/NATO Kurdistan plan is dead for Syria/Iraq/Turkey.
Erdogan is only out for himself, to become the new Sultan-for-life. If the Zionists can dream of re-creating a mythical Bible empire, then why should Erdogan give up his neo-Ottoman vision of re-creating a real Empire? At least that’s what Erdogan seems to think. Erdogan knows of the deal the US made to allow the Israeli-Zionists/Saudi-Wahabists to divide the Greater Middle East between them. Sultan Erdogan just wants his cut of the pie, which includes the part of Turkey the US wants to (sorta) give to the Kurds. (Don’t think Kurdistan will ever be anything but a US “protectorate”, like Puerto Rico.)
As for Putin’s response, he is too smart to fall for such picayune provocations. This is no 9/11. It is a blatant illegal operation, but attacking back only legitimizes the use of force. Gandhi: “An eye for an eye just makes the whole world blind”, and Christ said: “Turn the other cheek”.
I think Putin correctly reads the US population’s war-weariness. Even the most patriotic USican is under no illusions that the US has wasted vast resources, valuable time and irreplaceable international goodwill since the Deep State/Zionists put Saddam in their crosshairs. The negative reaction by formerly pro-Trump Zero Hedge regular posters is visceral…they’re smarting badly as Trump merely falls into POTUS war-monger line. There is little else Trump could have done to so completely turn great swaths of his “base” against him. He clearly said no more wars, and get out of the ones Obama perpetuated… and then this? I dare say the the US won’t try to replay Colin Powell’s buffoon/liar-performance at the UN, as the WMD-scam has lost its shock value.
The US has tipped its hand on this airbase, they think they’ll need it when they invade, which is why the airstrip/taxi-ways were undamaged. Expect this airfield (and any others lightly defended) will be stocked with Russian military/aircraft and advanced defense systems within the week. If the US wants a fight, Putin will make it clear it will not be the usual “no-fly-zone” cakewalk to destroying Syria.
Agree. Erdogan has lost every credibility from now on – not that earlier he was more stable, man thought he would – he reacts every time according to the new circumstances created on the ground, how could such a man be credible ? I think next time Russia will not give him any hint.
Dear The Saker,
Check out the UNSC meeting – Russia spoke about half an hour ago and tore strips off US/UK/France:
https://www.rt.com/news/383953-us-afraid-of-real-investigation-syria/
Called them out on all their hypocrisy and lies. Also Bolivian rep was brilliant – showed a picture of Colin Powell holding up the WMD at the UNSC before Iraq invasion :).
I agree, I think pulling the US before the UNSC is actually a decent return.
It’s the next time this all happens and the White Helmets and poor little Alabed are talking to camera – that’s the real test, that’s what this is all a set up for. Cos Russia will have to respond, and the neocons will want to respond by rolling their tanks into Ukraine. Balkanising Syria, Libyating Yemen, Afghanising Ukraine. And a profitable war with Russia.
Assad won’t go, because USA now can’t force him to stepping down, but they can still bleed Syria [some more]. I hope Russia won’t allow this too.
“I hope that the outrage inside Russia will force Lavrov to cancel his planned meeting with Tillerson. The usually sleepy Duma seems to be uncharacteristically outraged.”
-That seems unlikely, it seems very un-Russian to do so, to close channels of communication, quite the opposite, now is the time for more communication not less, I doubt Russia will cancel the meeting. It is not something a responsible state would do. That is something a childish state would do, such as USA or one of its puppets.
” has become clear that the US strike was largely symbolic. Here is the evidence:”
-That is what I believe and said in the other article, Russians were warned, thus the Syrian were also warned, the base was small, it was of low importance and the attack itself caused no strategic harm, and certainly did not endanger the Syrian government.
I am very surprised that there are people who actually believe Russia will place itself between USA and Syria. Russia will do everything to avoid a conflict with USA, and if USA turns out to be utterly insane and attacks Syria, Russia will certainly back off. Russia is at a disadvantage because it is a rational state. Russia responsibility is to her people not to the Syrian people and Putin wont risk millions of Russian dying to save Syria. So if Russia gets a message from USA saying “We will attack, leave or be hit” Russia will certainly withdraw if they believe it to be true. Syria is not Russia redline, Ukraine is, and I am not even fully certain about that.
Not so sure about that at all. Russia has much more at stake than simply Syria. Backing down in front of the entire world is not something Russia can do. Not because it loves Syria, but precisely *because* Putin’s 1st and only responsibility is to Russia. Humiliation in Syria will be followed by Humiliation in Ukraine and then nonstop attempts at color revolution at home.
As for the US government, it behaves very brutishly but is definitely rational. The US will not risk openly attacking Russian forces. Neocons don’t want to die.
If it were as easy as you say it is, the US would have warned Russia to leave Syria a long time ago.
Yes, if Russia abandons Syria it will find itself fighting the Salafists in Chechnya, Dagestan and possibly even Central Asia. Every retreat that Russia makes has simply emboldened the Anglo-Zionist empire.What happens if Russia completely withdraws inside its own borders, does it think that its enemies are going to stop. Rhetorical question really. In fact Putin has said that any future war will not be fought on Russian territory. The long retreat from Berlin which started in the 1990s must stop – the alternative is abject surrender, which would be the ultimate betrayal of the Russian people and humanity in general.
@ Lysander
“As for the US government, it behaves very brutishly but is definitely rational. The US will not risk openly attacking Russian forces. Neocons don’t want to die.”
Perhaps you have no firsthand experience of the sense of invulnerability, immortality and un-accountability of the super wealthy. Coupled with the fact that the US has thrown up some of the simplest, even thickest, leaders among the leading nations, for 25 years, and I am wiling to bet you that the idea of the demise of themselves and the US has not even entered their heads.
America will die because it deserves to.
I don’t think Russia will give up Syria. Syria is the front line of her southern defense. The withdrawal would leave Iran open for an attack as a result. And Iran is a very important ally of Russia not just in vain. If Iran falls, the road to southern Russia is open as well and the former Soviet republics in central Asia would be swallowed by jihadists.
You are not factoring in the Black Sea naval bases, the Syrian naval base and Mediterranean access.
Erdogan governs Turkey, FFS. He has everyone wanting a piece of him and his country. You can’t trust him, can’t write him off ever. He knows what he has to say, no one knows what he really thinks, wants to do, or plans. He’s in total survival mode.
The one certainty, I think, is that he has learned that Russia is much closer and a much better friend than US & Nato.
I’m just not sure that Erdogan thinks in terms of ‘friendship’…he might be a psychopath – he’s definitely not a normal thinker. He’s a lizard.
I saw on RT where Major General Igor Konashenkov, chief spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Defense is saying that Syria’s Air Defenses will be shored up to protect vital infrastructure.
On the surface this looks good and it could be interpreted that Russia intends to stick by Syria.
Lets hope we dont get a further clarification saying its only to protect Russian assets only.
And wherethe hellvus China at???
China is probably being made a new offer by the Anglo-Americans. We’ll see what happens in Florida.
They’re probably not being asked to break all ties with Russia, just to forget the SCO and multi-polarity in exchange for (special status) free sailing and commerce.
If so, China might want to ask the Native Americans about the US regime’s record on agreements. Before they commit national suicide .
I know. According to you guys, Vlad, Donny and Melania should have been wine and dine in Mar-a-Lago long ago…
China is ace up the sleeve. Let the Empire blow all their strats trying to paint Russia as the big bad, then when Russia needs help, rise the dragon.
I was encouraged by China’s response at unsc.
With the highest level of respect and personal admiration for President Putin, his reaction to Trump’s bombing of the Syrian Arab Army was predictable, as I wrote in my article for Geopolitika.Ru yesterday which accurately forecast Russia’s behavior.
I’m not condemning or criticizing it in any way, but am drawing attention to the fact that it’s possible to forecast these statements if one retains a sober and objective mindset when conducting scenario analyses.
If questions still remain, please refer to my entire article for a comprehensive explanation about Russia’s reaction:
“Libya Redux:
To sum it all up, Russia will assuredly react to any intensified American aggression against Syria, whether executed unilaterally or together with its Turkish and possible Saudi-led “coalition” allies, but it won’t militarily respond to these moves in any way that would risk setting off a larger Great Power conflict.
Russia’s expected rhetoric would represent a moral victory, especially if it emphasized that the US was behaving in contravention of international law just like it was in Iraq and Libya, but this would actually be a pyrrhic one because its words would be powerless to change any of the rapidly unfolding events on the ground.
They might align with the prevailing “politically correct” zeitgeist in the Alt-Media community which self-righteously preaches the primacy of international law and Russia’s relative “moral” standing, but the “realpolitik” motivations which are guiding Russia’s strategists – for better or for worse – contradict these slogans.”
http://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/how-neocons-are-tempting-trump-syria
surely the point will come when Russians vox populi will not approve of continuing any co-operation with the Janus headed Erdogan, as a member of NATO-surely Russians are not going to accept working with this hydra? NATO itself will be pushing Turkey not to co-ordinate or anything else with Russia, especially as turkey and Ukraine as a willing to be member and used as such by McCain and Co plus explicit USA support, have common understandings or partnerships or diplomatic relations of various kinds…………
@ Andrew Korybko: Erdogan is living on borrowed time, and will soon find out being a former “staunch ally” of the US in the Middle East is usually a life-ending proposition (Saddam, Gadaffi). Putin will not defend Erdogan like he is Assad, even if in the near future The Sultan pledges eternal friendship to Russia. On-again/off-again gas pipelines and tourist trade is just business… being a repeat turncoat violates trust, a commodity Putin values highly. Putin understands “interests”, which is why he tolerates Erdogan’s attempts to stymie the formation of a US-controlled Kurdistan in Iraq/Syria/Turkey. (or IS Caliphate, or whatever golem some psychopathic Zionist think-tank conjures up next)
Putin saved Erdogan’s life once, overlooked the Gulenist shooting down of the Russian jet. But Turkey rejoining the US in military incursions into Syria? Putin will only help keep Erdogan in place until the Syrian issue is settled.
Well, Trump is a moron and has fallen into a trap, if only by not waiting for any investigation, bypassing the United Nations Security Council, even avoiding its vote, and went straight on to a unilateral “unproved and dastardly attack” (to use F. D. Roosevelt’s words) Syria without even presenting any proofs.
He basically destroyed the only thing that had previously retained and made a double moron of himself (regarding his former tweets).
He has destroyed all cooperation with Russia, thus also all standing that he may have had with Russia and In Syria, he completely destroyed not only his own reputation but also that of his country.
He lost his only remaining allies because the official allies already consider him a dangerous nut.
Taken all in all, he has irreparably damaged all the image that Obama had painstakingly built.
All the “political capital” (so to speak) which Obama administration had built around international law with which they were bashing Russia), all the sham stories about abiding international law are going to be turned into shame for the U.S.A., as Russia can now comfortably use all the Western arsenal of lofty reasoning to bash, condemn, denounce and deride the United States of Aggression at every possible opportunity.
You’re 100% correct, Martin, Donald Trump fell right into a trap. He not only didn’t wait for any investigation, but bypassed the UNSC as well, even avoiding its vote, and went straight on to a unilateral “unproved and dastardly attack” (to use FDR’s words) on Syria without even presenting any evidence.
As you said, Trump basically destroyed the only thing that had previously retained and made a double moron of himself (regarding his former tweets). He’s destroyed all cooperation with Russia, thus also all standing that he may have had with Russia and in Syria, he completely destroyed not only his own reputation, but also that of his country. His own “base” of supporters have now turned their backs on him and will never trust him again.
All the political capital (so to speak which Obama administration had built around international law with which they were bashing Russia), all the sham stories about abiding international law are going to be turned into shame for the USA, as Russia can now comfortably use all the Western arsenal of lofty reasoning to bash, condemn, denounce and deride the United States of Aggression at every possible unity.
Very brilliantly said, Martin, and I couldn’t agree with you more. Rand Paul, in stating that Trump had violated the Separation of Powers Clause in the Constitution by bypassing Congress, is 100% right.
I don’t believe it. This is so for-planned it’s as blatant as Trump himself – he fell into no trap – he was fore-warned and is doing what he thinks is best…that’s Donald Trump for you.
I’m appalled at the folks who think that these people (Trump & co) are innocent fools…they’re not – making as much money as Trump has done tells us obviously that he’s a sly as they come.
I just don’t know whether he’s fooled us all, including Putin and Russia and many powerful thinkers in Russia – some of whom Saker has introduced us to – such as the ‘five minutes of common sense’ guy –
Or whether he is on course still but doing it his way – ‘go along to get along’ is an apt Trump philosophy…
It seems to me that this strike against Syria was to deflect attention away from something else – the attention of the public and the attention of the neo-cons.
just appeared title on Duran;
http://theduran.com/confirmed-russian-warship-armed-with-cruise-missiles-head-towards-us-destroyers/
I’m not convinced that the Russians speculate so to get away from the fighting at the expense of others. if they think that should “break the nose to americans”, they will do it. they will not “lead from behind”. they have honour.
It is “you give him a inch, they will take a foot”. At some point, Putin will have to act to put a stop to it. But I think for now, Putin will wait, bide his time, prepare, and look for a good point. If ISIS took Syria, the consequence would be severe.
If you are indeed Andrei Korybko, then your credibility is pretty poor given the pro-Pakistan junk you published on Katehon, your sycophantic interview on a Pakistani news internet channel. Each of your predictions about Russia realigning with Pakistan over India never happened and was predictably soundly rebuked by the Russian defense and diplomatic establishment and the Russian ambassador to India.
The sympathy you showed to a Salafist terrorism sponsoring state is shameful and pretty much skewers your credibility as an objective analyst.
Kaai, I think it’s easier to attack someone who puts out a strong statement = than to put out a strong statement.
Andrew is a respectable and intelligent writer who sticks out his neck to give us alot to think about, and, by the way, of course it’s Andrew Korybko – !! –
Anyhoot, I think Andrew’s a very interesting participant in the events of the times, and I appreciate him and all his work…he’s a talented guy, who’s on our side….
no need to fight and bite within the ranks – just because his politics isn’t exactly your politics.
If Russia wasn’t willing to respond to NATO-GCC aggression against Syria, then the SAA would have been destroyed since 2011. It’s also because Russia is willing to respond that the US cruise missile strike was nothing more than cosmetic.
Pantsir battery.
My military guru comments:
The only decent system that the Syrians have against cruise missiles is the Pantsir, other than that, I don’t see anything that is good enough for the job. Old systems are not very good at intercepting low altitude cruise missiles. Radar guided antiaircraft guns can do it but not against 59 missiles.
Also jets in the air but we now know these slow moving missiles are not very accurate–only 23 hit the base according to Russian Defense Ministry
http://theduran.com/russian-defence-ministry-most-missiles-missed-target-russia-to-boost-syrian-air-defences/
https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones/videos/10155236671628459/
The US once put great stock in cruise missile capabilities and their low-altitude stealth advantages. Proliferating inexpensive, accurate guided SAM’s over land and radar-guided machine guns on ships pretty much ended that short euphoria. Cruise missiles are pretty “stupid” compared to any recent self-navigating arms technology.
The idea to blow $100 million in one artillery-style barrage is a new twist, but at a cost that the results can’t justify. Besides, the Syrian Army and Russian electronic surveillance teams won’t be caught quite so unaware again. The US public expects “shock and awe”, “precision bombing” for that kind of coin, and they got a damp squib.
I think the Deep State/Pentagoons wanted to see if they could convince Trump to fire off a bunch of old munitions so the MIC could bill 2-3 times (or more?) what the old crap cost for replacements. Some businessman, that Trumpy.
Ideal weapon against those missiles are electronic jamming systems in my opinion. That should be Russian priority when talking about increasing air-defense abilities of Syrian Army. And that was probably used and resulted with only 23 of 59 missiles hitting their targets.
@teranam, your supposition that tomahawks cruise missiles are not accurate is an incorrect assumption: they are supported by GPS guidance and have multiple other guidance systems as a backup and active, and can hit a specific building from over 600Km. If only 23 got through that can only mean two possibilities:
1) Malfunction: Highly unlikely due to the large number of failures that would have to have taken place for almost 2/3rds of the missiles to have failed to reach their targets – Not Likely
2) The missiles were interfered with and/or brought down: This is the highest probability cause for the destruction of 36 out of the 59 missiles. Of course these slow moving non-stealth missiles can be tracked, followed and shot down by average supersonic interceptors even a mig 21 can do it, it’s literally a turkey shoot. Now there is one big limitation in the case of the Syrian Airforce – do they have night capabilities? I don’t know the answer to that. As for the SAMs that can bring down this huge oversized old-tech cruise missile (1980s-1990s technology) even systems less than a pantsir can bring it down. The stupid thing flies at Mach 0.8 and in a straight line at low but unvarying altitude. – High probability.
3) The Russians lied and all 59 Tomaturd missiles got thru even though they miraculously did very little damage and left the airfield intact. – I just don’t see the Russians engage in this type of stupidity (that’s the monopoly of blowhard regimes like the Ukie Junta, the crumbling Brit military, the US, the Pakistanis and the Saudis), but you are free to not believe the Russian account. -Low probability
There is one other possibility — however unlikely: there was US military someone who did not want to see the air base destroyed, either to not harm the destruction of the terrorist or for political reasons, and had them sent astray somehow. Keep in mind that when Obama was considering striking Syria there some high level people who opposed it and prevented it.
Or if not military people, possibly the butler did it — it’s hard to discount anything.
Yet, malfunction may not be so improbable if maintenance was neglected, as it is in other military areas. Do these require maintenance? Do they deteriorate with age?
For a few busted planes, you’ve lost every rational voter in America.
Was the price worth it, Madeline Trump?
well said…..in perfect perspective……
Yes, this is very true.
I was a Trump supporter holding out some glimmer of hope that electing him instead of Hillary would prevent escalation in Syria.
Trump has forever lost my support. There is nothing he can do from here that will ever restore it. 1 term president now. I support making it less than full term also. He does not have rationale one should have in his position.
Every caller on the conservative talk show I listen to was against action in Syria yesterday. It is my opinion that is why they struck last night. Before the American voices could be heard in strength.
A stupid, stupid attack which accomplished no tactical objective. It’s strategic objective of forcing war is still very possible but, the war will be based on an illegal and unilateral action by the U.S. which will ultimately undermine it.
Active Patriot said: “Every caller on the conservative talk show I listen to was against action in Syria yesterday.”
Gee, only took 5 years for the US conservatives to notice how screwed up the US/NATO/Israeli policy in Syria was. Say only 15 years for active war in Iraq/Afghanistan? And only about 60 years since the CIA overthrew the legally elected gov’t of Mossadegh in Iran, meddled in the Suez Crisis etc., which really set so much of all this current mess in motion. Funny, the same time as the US called an “armistice” on their direct war-meddling in Korea. You people just never learn eh?
As I said in previous threads, self preservation (or that of your immediate family) has a sobering effect on warmongery, spying and its related activities in the public mind. The potential for US kiddies to be facing the Russian military is a sobering scenario. Also, the Syrian Army and Hezbolla are well-equipped, tough, battle-hardened and fighting for their homeland.
So of course the “conservatives” don’t want to shift from the Israeli-Zionist/Saudi-Wahabbist supply routes for the recruiting/arming of ISIS/Al Qaeda proxy-terrorists. Putting US military kids in danger kinda screws up the program, as many of those “conservatives” will have advised their latest progeny that there would never be another major Iraq/Afghanistan-style deployment. And they are butt-hurt that Trumpy would betray them, doing pretty much what the Clinton Crime Cabal would have done.
Building useless but expensive walls and pointlessly pissing off Muslim travelers/immigrants is one thing, sending red, white and blue US kiddies off to fight Israel’s proxy wars is another. After being continuously at war/genocide/regime-change since before 1776, time for a change of attitude before US “patriots” get us all blown up.
Now if a majority of US voters had the good sense to abandon both Dem/Rep halves of the Zionist-warmonger/Manifest Destiny Party and put in a full slate of intelligent, not-paid-for independents, the US might survive in some form. Otherwise, there will be a lot of smoking radioactive holes where US cities/military bases used to be.
Trump’s base will be fractured beyond repair if this escalates. It is WWIII over at Breitbart between the Neocons and the Populists.
In the 90s the same PsyOp was successfully conducted by NATO-backed terrorists in the war against Yugoslavia.
“The 1992 “Breadline Massacre”: “United Nations officials and senior Western military officers believe some of the worst killings in Sarajevo, including the massacre of at least 16 people in a bread queue, were carried out by the city’s mainly Muslim defenders — not Serb besiegers — as a propaganda ploy to win world sympathy and military intervention. . . . Classified reports to the UN force commander, General Satish Nambiar, concluded . . . that Bosnian forces loyal to President Alija Izetbegovic may have detonated a bomb. ‘We believe it was a command-detonated explosion, probably in a can,’ a UN official said then. ‘The large impact which is there now is not necessarily similar or anywhere near as large as we came to expect with a mortar round landing on a paved surface.” [“Muslims ‘slaughter their own people’,” (London) The Independent, 8/22/92]
…
“‘They [i.e., the Muslims] have committed this carnage on their own people?’ I exclaimed in consternation. ‘Yes,’ confirmed the Prime Minister without hesitation, ‘but at least they have forced NATO to intervene.’”
https://archive.is/x2i4i
“Canadian (UN) soldier testimonies from book : The Sharp End” by James D. Davis
…
Bosnians murdered their own people in well-staged attacks for PR reasons”
https://archive.is/KZr4B
“PSYOP increase the relative combat power of friendly forces and adversely affect the combat power of the adversary. PSYOP accomplish this result by targeting the identified vulnerabilities of foreign audiences through the employment of the PSYOP development process. Within the DOD, the Army has the primary military role to conduct PSYOP. Army PSYOP units perform this role by supporting U.S. national policy, by conducting PSYOP in support of military operations and United States Government (USG) agencies, and by providing PSYOP training, advice, and assistance to U.S. forces and to friendly nations.”
https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-05-301.pdf
if 100% missile fail then party possessing missile will stop using that type missile. let some through to maintain back foot of opponent and doubt in mind of attacker. logic, no?
“In other words, Trump is now a war criminal and the USA a rogue state (again)”.
When was the US not a rogue state ?
What about the 200 civilians in Mosul and probably hundreds if not thousands more who died from US bombings in recent weeks for a handful of ISIS thugs ?
And the numerous hundreds of thousands if not millions that the US has massacred from the air in the past decades?
Since the end of WWII, according to Wikipedia (and it is not reliable, right?), over 50 million people have died in wars and interferences around the world. Who is behind them?
Indeed, if the Democrats really wanted to impeach Trump, they would have little difficulty now. Unlike the attack on Deir Zor which the US denied was intentional, Trump has willing boasted of committing a war crime.
He has violated the US constitution, ignoring congress, not received authorization from the UNSC, and violated the UN charter, as well as the Nuremburg principles in initiating an agressive act of war on a sovereign state.
No evidence of Russian Trump collusions, but an impeachable willing confession of a violation of both US law and international law. What’s not to impeach. Go to it Democrats!
Please could you use another name when commenting as we already have a commenter named blue. Thx. To stop the confusion – the name blue has been removed from your post. Mod
Ha, the Democrats (sic) would never use this to stop Trump – they have just learned from his act a lesson that they may repeat if they have a chance…
Trump actions are no suprise for me. He continues the agenda:
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2017/03/us-predictably-turns-iran-deal-into.html
One good thing; USA is losing and it is desperate to achieve any major gain in Syria. They were avoiding direct intervention, but now they have no option. It is clearly too costly for them – 100 milion of dollars in rockets alone, were wasted for few old & grounded aircrafts and only minor damage to runway.
I’m only suprised how insufficent was this strike. Such precision weapon and it can’t damage the airfield. It is true that, USA army is only good against 3 world countries, when mutliple NATO countries are attacking one state armed with outdated equipment.
I think the Russkies should follow Nikki Haley’s example, and use pictures of children at the UN, the way she did. For example, there’s what I think is a famous picture of a man carrying a girl out of rubble from an American bombing in Iraq, with both of her feet blown off. There’s also horrible pictures of hideously deformed babies from Fallujah, that the US ‘blessed’ with ample DU and other mutagenic chemical agents.
The first time I ever felt truly ashamed by my country, the US, was when I saw those pictures of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Gharaib, such as the one with electrical wires running into their genitals. It’s like we had become a modern day Rome; only the pompous celebrations were missing from our orgies of violence. So, once in a while, the Russkis at the UN can remind the world of, ahem, US interrogation practices of adults, as well.
It seems like a judo type thing to do. And, after all, the US has far more foreign policy scandals to be held up for public display that the Russkis do.
The only question, in my mind, is how long should the Russkis do this? ‘Obviously’, long enough for it to become common knowledge. But afterwards, should it be kept up until the US definitely makes a sea change in its foreign policy, say along the lines of candidate Trump?
One of the most depressing things about the bombing is not just the lack of justifying evidence, but the fact that “allies” like Britain, Japan, and Jordan have voiced support for this outrage. Their domestic populations deserve to be enlightened regarding the shame their leaders are endorsing. That should force some of them to back off, thereby not encouraging Trump tranforming into a permanent neocon stooge.
On the plus side, much of Trump’s base have, apparently, condemned this insanity. I was banned from reddit.com/r/The_Donald, basically for posting critical link of Trump. I’d noticed that there was hardly ever any criticism of Trump, and dismissed the sub-reddit as a brainless fanboy site. However, just before the bombing, the front page (most recommended) carried a number of posts IMPLICITLY critical of Trump, such as:
“PAGING PRESIDENT TRUMP!!! Don’t get dragged into the swamp. Don’t negotiate with globalists. Keep us out of war with Syria. Shut down funding for rebels.” / “Warmongers, neocons, McCain, Graham, MSM, the Deep State, are coming out in full force, demanding for military intervention in Syria. the current syria situation is reminiscent of the lead-up to the Iraq War. We DO NOT WANT IRAQ 2.0” / “ISIS is FINALLY on the ropes, Aleppo freed from them after years of war, the world’s eyes are on Assad as he finally sees the light at the end of the tunnel…and he chooses NOW to gas some babies. Utter BULLSHIT. The Deep State CREATES THE NEWS to control people. Dangerous times ahead…”
Trump throws a punch, smashes the helpless innocent guy in the face, and all his detractors rush up to him to pat him on the back and tell him that at last he has proven himself worthy. Yes that situation is ***really*** going to dissuade Trump from immediately escalating in Syria, Iran, Yemen, North Korea and Ukraine. Did IQs here just massively drop?
Only a complete moron indulges in wishful thinking at a time like this. It is like the appeasement of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s all over again. Trump has tasted blood and been ‘blooded’ (a UK ‘hunting’ term) all at the same time. And everyone that matters around him is screaming their approval and telling him to go for more. Nothing, and I mean ***nothing*** is going to prevent Trump from the next act of increasing mega-violence in the next few weeks.
The EU and Britain and Israel and Turkey have agreed to form a military alliance to finish off Assad. They see Putin, with every good reason, as ‘spineless’ and feel he’ll protect Syria just as well as Russia ‘protected’ Libya or Yugoslavia. After all the war in Syria won’t be ‘against’ Russia once Russia withdrew most of its forces as the ‘coalition’ begins attacking in earnest, so where’s the problem?
But, thank’s to Putin’s inaction, Syria is done. The real focus now moves to Iran, Ukraine and North Korea. We are a few months away from Trump launching massive bombing actions against Iran. The UK is stockpiling massive amounts of weaponary for use by Israel in Lebanon. NATO forces are readying strikes against East Ukraine ‘rebels’. The Deep State has terror ‘spectaculars’ ready to go in Crimea. And Trump can begin an Earth shattering war in the Far East by attacking North Korea at any moment deemed ‘useful’. The strategy is to keep Putin ‘confused’ and ‘dazed’, unable to understand where it is worth Russia making a stand. To make Putin shrink to caring only about the Russian Federation and nothing else.
‘First blood’ is always a small, controlled, ‘safe’ action. People who see the ‘first blood’ event and say “oh, that’s nothing to worry about” are the biggest fools in the world.
“But, thank’s to Putin’s inaction, Syria is done.”
Whatever buddy. Syria is standing up to the West’s asymmetrical war for six years now, and in big part that is because of Russia, Iran and the glorious Hezbollah movement.
Ever heard of winning the battle but ***losing*** the war. People who hero worship Putin, and thus accept no criticism of him are like the same fools who hero worshipped Trump when he first defeated Clinton.
As I type, the UK is delivering a sickening, evil and predictive attack against Russia in the UN, understanding that Russia is now ‘on the ropes’ and will no longer by able to hold back the demons in Syria. Who cares if Russia has (just about) propped up the legitimate government in Syria across the last few years. Putin has made it abundantly clear that if the West chooses to move against Syria openly, Russia will offer no resistance. Putin’s ***only*** strategy was cease fires and negotiations between the warring parties in Syria, as if the war their was some kind of ‘misunderstanding’ or ‘mistake’. You can ***negotiate*** for peace successfully ***only*** if the empire powers involved all want peace. What clown thinks the West wants peace in Syria.
What clown thinks Russia will allow Syria to trigger WW3 either? Once Syria threatens ***direct*** conflict between Russia and the West, Russia is gone, just like with Libya and Yugoslavia. Putin can be backed-down every time with the all-or-nothing strategy of the West.
Putin got down on his knees and begged Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to see things Russia’s way in Syria, and gave each terrorist nation massive rewards to do so. They have each laughingly stabbed Putin in the back today. Russia has ***no*** allies outside its little circle- a fact that has the UK UN representitive in hysterics in the UN chamber just now.
Russia had just one ***brave*** ***just*** move after yesterday- to destroy the US ships that attacked Syria. And ***no***, the USA would not have escalated as a result- instead the population of our planet would have recoiled in terror at the prospect of Trump warmongering threatening our future, and the neo-cons and neo-libs would have been finished. All or nothing would work even better as a Russian strategy- but Putin is too ‘civilised’ to ever get that.
Trump has had his first real ‘hit’ of power, and is going to crave more and more and more and more and more. He is going to be gagging for the next strike, and with Russia’s reputation in the toilet (because Putin refused to firmly embrace Trump immediately after his election), Trump is going to want to ‘kick’ Russian interests even more. And that means ***punishment*** and ***pain***, methods the ‘enemies’ of America across history have known only too well.
But hey, ‘buddy’ go back to sticking your head in the sand and hero worshipping Putin. Convince yourself that America never means what it says, despite over 200 years of murderous American hyper-aggression. This bully needs a ‘punch in the nose’ to stop it dead. Nothing else will get the job done.
Putin and Xi have held the Rothschild/US/NATO/Deep State largely impotent in their psychotic agenda of world domination, or to alternately create WW3. You are following the logic that started nearly every major war since forever. The difference being, this time the psychopaths can destroy the world.
Why would Putin attack the US military directly? No Russian military personnel were killed/injured nor aircraft destroyed by the cruise missiles. The US picked a facility with no Russians for a reason… they are cowards, afraid to take on Russia. And if Putin did order direct strikes, the US could claim Russia provoked the war… use your head!
Amen.
We’re going to see much more tension before release and resolution. I believe the Russians and the Syrians are of those few people whose hearts are big enough to grieve not only their own, but also for the future generations and for their enemies. This is why we are still all alive.
Good call on this being a PR stunt. If Americans are serious, there will be more attacks. I doubt that.
On the other hand, this brainless PR move is a perfect excuse for Russia to bring in more fighter jets and aerospace defense systems to make Syria a fortress.
The long-term American goal is partition of Syria. Russians will not fight the Americans directly to stop this. They will, however, arm and train Syrians to fight Americans and land-grabbers. All in due time.
This mild Russian response may be the smart thing to do, as long as things don’t escalate. Once again, the U.S. is shooting itself in the foot. Maybe Trump will ultimately end up firing more people– I hope. He is kicking a hornet’s nest and he can’t even come up with a remotely plausible casus belli. Who is going to believe this crap outside of some gullible Americans and Europeans? I think the Russians will come out ahead as long as things stop here.
How is he shooting himself in the foot?
The way I see it the US has learned that it can do anything it likes to a country be it send in troops or drop missiles and bombs on it and the best part is they know that nobody will ever shoot back at them.
So if you were the US wouldn’t you just go on and on bombing and attacking and looting and subverting because there ain’t nobody out there who’s gonna stop you?
“How is he shooting himself in the foot?”
1) The USG exposes itself to the U.S. public and world as a belligerent liar. U.S. intentions and credibility become more suspect.
2) Both U.S. and international law have been violated. This undermines USG legitimacy.
3) Politically, I think the U.S. public will roast both congress and the White House for this. Can congresses 17% approval rating fall lower? (Could this have been Trump’s plan all along? To appear to side with the neocons and then antagonize the public against the neocon agenda? Probably not, but who knows.)
4) The U.S. is investing substantial resources in a useless and counterproductive exercise. This will also undermine confidence in the USG “leadership”.
Military Guru says South Front Video has it right mostly:Forecasting Escalation Scenario in Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlWfoOdifOw
Trump. Deal. “Making a Deal on Syria.” The English word “deal” is etymologically the same as the German word “Teil”, just that pronunciation and meaning have drifted apart over time. Pointing this out because “Teil” means “part” and “Teilung” means “division”. Highlighting the point that a deal on Syria, as stated at the end of the video in the realist scenario (after the nutty nuke nonsense), will likely mean the division of Syria.
How disappointing. 🙁
But hey, Russia will get to keep her Tartus base. :]
I was so wishing for godsped missiles to rip the Usanian terror vessels apart, destroy their terror bases all over the place and their terror planes on the ground.
Most confusing of all the assessment by Thierry Meyssan posted by TMWNS below.
The fog of war is too dense – I’m lost, at least for the moment.
thanks so much Teranam 13 – so interesting.
Much as I would like to see Russia blow those US ships out of the Mediterranean – I wonder if its the right thing to do…probably not.
also, if the Russians took out those ships in the Mediterranean – how could the ships launch missiles ?
Distraction: Truck incident in Stockholm. From the pictures shown on RT and CNN, it very much smells like another hoax: area cordoned off, lots of law enforcement standing idly around, some masked with heavy weapons (purpose???), actors running from left to right and back again, journos standing idly by and filming, and so on. So after Nizza, Berlin and London, this is the latest terror hoax.
@ twilight
‘…Only a complete moron indulges in wishful thinking at a time like this. It is like the appeasement of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s all over again. Trump has tasted blood and been ‘blooded’ (a UK ‘hunting’ term) all at the same time. And everyone that matters around him is screaming their approval and telling him to go for more. Nothing, and I mean ***nothing*** is going to prevent Trump from the next act of increasing mega-violence in the next few weeks…’
Right on brother…
I simply cannot believe the ridiculous blather here about the strike on Syria being some kind of PR stunt…
Folks this so-called ‘PR strike’ is in fact the first little droplets of a ‘perfect storm’ about to explode
No we cannot be sure of this from where we, as spectators sit…but rest assured that the RF military staff have the whole back story…
Please note VVP’s remarks…that this strike was ‘months in the making…’
This little soundbite tells you everything you need to know…
Wars do not start never mind the fog of so-called war reporting…I don’t give a darn what some reporter said where…any fool can smell war in air…
To relax now as some are advocating here is the height of folly…
I have nothing more to add to twilight’s excellent note [the only intelligent comment here]…
My only reservation is that I have not yet written off VVP…and so Syria is not yet ‘done…’
Like any good player Putin is…or should be… keeping his cards close to his chest and no doubt his powder dry…
If, as I suspect this is in fact the opening gambit of a full-out war on Syria…then I believe that RF has no choice but to fight with all she can muster…
Anything else is a game-loser as twilight points out…
PS: I will not go into details as to why this is the opening shot of a major war on Syria…but suffice to say that Turkey’s invasion last year clearly telegraphed this direction…
Tillerson’s visit to Ankara just days before the missiles fly…?…coincidence…I think not…
Erdo’s Jihidist puppets in Idlib cooking up a convenient ‘gas story’ right after Tillerson leaves…?
Another coincidence…?…how many ‘coincidences’ does it take before it’s no longer a coincidence…?
I agree, the confrontation with the west has to be in Syria, for at least three reasons.
1. Economic – Russian oil and gas companies have infrastructure in place to develop the transportation pipeline to supply the energy needs of the European Union members. That makes the Russian Federation a key competitor in the Middle East. If Russia capitulates to the U.S. and relinquishes its investment by force of arms, it will be a serious blow to the future economy of the nation. Therefore this Russian asset in Syria must be protected as a priority.
2. Foreign Exchange – Russia, China, Iran and other nations are building a monetary system to compete with the Petro-dollar. Investments have been made by this nascent alliance to create a new system of currency settlements for payments on international trade and bypass the existing system tied to the U.S. dollar. However there is an underlying perception of trust that transcends more than money; it is based upon an understanding of respect that will make this cooperative effort work. An integral part of that trust will be to honor commitments made by each member of the alliance to one another.
What does it say if Russia backs down on its affirmation to destroy the terrorists in Syria and forego backing the Assad administration because of a probable military confrontation with the U.S.? It reports that Russia has two faces and two faced entities can change with the wind, in war and in commerce. Diplomacy has failed and now she has to stand up to the U.S. bully, be strong and unwavering. The alliance will scrutinize and question the viability of this new enterprise to compete with the unholy dollar. The burden has been set on Russia’s mighty shoulders to lead the way.
3. Military Defense – Imagine you are a leader of a 1000 year old sovereign nation whose citizens are diverse, ethically, culturally and spiritually. You learned growing up of horrific battles fought by ancient tribal leaders, monarchs and modern day presidents who embraced a vision to make societal changes for the betterment of the citizenry. The people endured great suffering but persevered for they held onto something; a common thread deep in their marrow that gave life to their blood and intellectual hope to their mind.
Here in Syria, we witness another epic challenge for Mother Russia and her people that will surely be recorded as a monumental event in the nation’s history. The battle against the multi-headed beast must be in this land so as not to face it at home where it has ample support in border States and poses a greater loss of life for the citizenry. This strategy is from a worn out page of the imperialist playbook (fight them over there, not in our backyard) and it is appropriate for now.
A brave soul knows fear but is not afraid to face it. Russia cannot leave Syria, not under these dire circumstances. She must sharpen her bear claws and stand tall with resolve. She is a greater life force than the dark beast and must defeat it. This is her time, this has to be her victory, unconditionally with no remorse and no regret. Past failures are a learning moment only and not to be repeated.
President Putin must place the “Shashka of Persuasion” into the hands of Defense Minister Shoigu and Shoigu must move immediately to protect and bolster Russian military forces in Syria. Divisions of Russian Defense forces must be mobilized and sent into the country. The naval base at Tartus must be reinforced with men and equipment as well as the airbase at Khmeimim. Syrian territorial waters must be patrolled by surface and submarine vessels. President Assad must declare a “No Fly Zone” over his country. The Syrian airspace must be completely blanketed by surface-to-air defense systems and every square meter of the country’s perimeter must be covered. Nothing gets in, nothing gets out without approval from Russian Defense Forces.
Any attempt to do so by coalition aircraft including Turkey or Israel’s air force whether it be purposed for attacking ISIS/ISIL Inc. or re-supplying U.S. ground forces near Raqqa will be ordered away or shot down. Assad must issue a directive to Washington, DC that U.S. ground troops must leave Syria immediately or they will be escorted and marched to the Iraqi border. I fear anything short of this action in Syria will embolden Washington to move against Russia from Donbass and create a battle space in the Black Sea to invade the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea.
Look at it from this perspective. Every year on May 9, Russia honors its military heroes of the great patriotic war with a huge display of military hardware, men marching and aircraft in Red Square. Why not do it for real in Syria, where such an act reaffirms that Russia abides by international law and can be trusted to stand up against fascism and tyranny?
@ PokeTheTruth
Thank you for that excellent post…
There can be no more game playing now because I tell ya’ folks…there is a big Syria invasion in the works…and it’s going to come from Turkish territory…
It is amazing to me how everyone still continues to blather on about Turkey and the Kurds…
I will tell you this right now…Turkey is…and has been…the prime mover in the tilt against Syria for a long time…
I have posted this link already several times but nobody seems to have bothered to read this…please read it…history…if not exactly repeating does often rhyme…
Now before posting the link I will give some context…this article was written by a Council on Foreign Relations guy back in 2013…exactly when Obama was just about to pull the trigger on Syria…
The point of the article was to give some historical perspective…please folks…when you see events suddenly start picking up speed like this…it is always important to try to absorb as much history as possible…
Many here are always screaming about Israel…yes Israel is a dirtbag…but they are too small a force to overrun and occupy Syria…
The US always prefers someone else to do their fighting for them…and they will of course provide massive aerial and cruise missile strikes…
The only player in the region who is…or ever was…powerful enough to overrun and occupy Syria is Turkey…
The following citation comes from a book called…The First War on Terrorism: Counter-Terrorism Policy during the Reagan Administration
‘…When Assad challenges Israel and the Marines in Lebanon, he knows that if Israel attacks him it cannot occupy all of Syria. Assad feels he can always retreat to the North and set up a smaller state and with stronger Alawite control. However, if Turkey is brought into the calculations of Rifaat [Assad] (the real power in Syria) and Hafez, their calculations will be totally different and would be impossible to add up without losing their power. If Syria is attacked by Turkey from the north the Alawite stronghold will be gone at the start and Assad and his supporters will have to fall back on an ocean of hateful Sunni moslems (sic) in the south where they will be eaten like lost sheep. Therefore the pressure on Syria should come from Turkey and not from the Marines and or Israel…’
The link to the article is here…
http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2012/02/13/when-america-attacked-syria/
Now let’s step back for a minute…we must realize that the general public…including those here…tend to work under certain or other assumptions…simply because we do not have very much information…
We know that Obama pulled back from the brink in 2013…but we don’t really know why…for one thing there was not huge public support at the time…with Libya still fresh in people’s minds the UK parliament voted against it…there was not much support in US congress either…
The West was still war-weary from Iraq and Afghanistan…and besides that the Ukraine project was clearly far along in the planning stage at this point…the neocon powers that be figured…correctly…that Syria could remain as is…hemorrhaging slowly…while they fried the bigger Ukraine fish…
That worked out brilliantly…The Russians taking back Crimea and then the uprising in Donbass…the MH17 propaganda gift that keeps on giving…and of course the massive anti-Russia PR campaign that we have seen since…the sanctions…etc…
Trump presented himself as a rational player who was not going to pursue any more neocon overseas conquests…he was even going to make friends with Russia…
These are all assumptions that people have accepted at pretty much face value…but really…why should we accept anything at face value…?
Trump is not an idiot…he probably didn’t know any better until he got to the White House…
Now he knows how the US operates and why it needs to keep operating this way…
Back in 2013 it wasn’t Syria’s time…Ukraine was on the front burner…now the time is ripe for Syria and the neocon world order is not going to be denied…why should we assume that Trump cannot find a lot of common ground with the neocon plan…?
That would be simply stupid…he simply did not have the information that he does now…and that info…whatever it may be…has clearly changed his world view…he said as much the other day…’I’m flexible…I’ve changed my mind on Syria…’…like he would not the very first to smell the false flag rat that is reeking to high heaven…
Drumpf’s unpredictability is actually a great strength in politics…politics is a blood sport folks…[it was Kissinger who said Drumpf could end up being a ‘great’ p[resident because of hi unpredictability…]
And now Erdogan…why should anyone make the foolish assumption that this very clever and exceedingly unpredictable player can be taken at face value…?
Last fall he was all kissy huggy with his Papa Putin…then bam…he invades Syria…a couple of months later the Russian envoy in Ankara is gunned down by a Turkish cop who raises the index finger salute of Al Qaeda while holding the gun and shouting allahu akbar…
Then we find out that a bunch of Turkish officers were hiding out with suicide belt wearing terrorists in Aleppo…the bearded fanatics and their families [!] were bused to safety in Idlib…thanks to Uncle Erdo…
For the past few months Erdo’s army has been conquering Syrian territory…his army now has a toehold inside the country…this is very significant folks…
And please don’t tell me about the Kurds…the Kurds are not even an issue…this is another assumption…how is it that Turkey is on great terms with the Barzani clan that runs Iraqi Kurdistan…?
Now let’s go back to 1983…this was long before Erdo…Turkey was run by Generals who had no interest in starting any major wars…back then the Kurds actually were a big problem right inside Turkey
Have a look at this…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish%E2%80%93Turkish_conflict_(1978%E2%80%93present)
All the info is right there in that little box on the right…40,000 plus Kurds killed…according to Turkish sources…
We can safely assume that a much higher true number exists…The US let Turkey carry out a genocide and nobody said boo…still don’t…all the while the West was screaming about Russians putting down Chechnya…which was a drop in the bucket by comparison…
So in 1983 we have a superpower Soviet Union that is supporting Syria…and even so…the neocons of the day are trying to get the Turks to do the dirty work…only the Turkish generals weren’t that stupid…
We are also assuming that the US is the prime mover behind the Syria regime change project…?…how do we know that…?…cui bono…?
Nobody benefits more than Turkey…cutting up Syria and annexing the Turkmen lands in the north…and being the kingmaker in much of the rest…
Come on folks…Erdogan’s calculus is that he can challenge Russia in Syria if he gets the US to back him up…it’s as simple as that…if he gets the green light he is going to move on Syria in a heartbeat
What does Drumpf have to lose in this…?…He’s a player too…he can promise Erdo full support for a Syria invasion and even help a little…
And if things go well and Russia backs down and lets Syria twist in the wind then it is only a win for the long game of destroying Russia…
If Russia fights and kicks Erdo’s ass out of Syria…then so what…?…US has no big stake there anyway…neither does Israel…they want the West Bank and Lebanon…that’s what Israel can reasonably handle…they are about seizing and keeping…they will of course keep the Golan…
So let’s be clear-headed about some of our assumptions…we really do not know what is really at play behind the scenes…but we have enough info to make good guesses…
Some recent events…Tillerson goes to Ankara…Syrian terrorists are once again getting money and weapons from the US…after having been briefly cut off earlier this year…
Erdo now says Astana is dead…the moderate rebels under his wing are launching renewed offensives…
The fact that Russia has allowed Turkish troops to remain in Syria has been a festering sore …Erdo has been pushing to see how far he can go…and the pushback from Putin never comes…
Now I ask you…we are also assuming that Putin is endlessly playing the patient and diplomatic game…
But what is to stop the Russian leader from bitch-slapping Erdo so hard that his ears are going to ring for the next 20 years…?
Let’s turn the question around…The West’s calculus is whether Putin is really going to stand up and fight for Assad if push comes to shove…
Well…how about this math…is the US and rotten EU going to stand up for Erdo if Putin decides to go ballistic on Turkish terrorist scum in Syria…?
Please put that in your pipe and smoke it…
your name is Russian, but you don’t have an accent.
Impressive comment for sure. I wonder who you really are ?
well, I hope you’re right about Erdogan getting bitch slapped by Putin, but I doubt it.
It seems to me that the Russian statement was well-nigh perfect. Brief, complete, measured yet firm.
When conducting international relations in a situation that could very rapidly lead to thermonuclear exchange, it is essential to be cautious and to telegraph one’s intentions (the way Trump did not).
Incidentally, if it has been confirmed that the US government did warn the Russians, Secretary of State Tillerson lied in his teeth today.
“Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed on Thursday night that President Vladimir Putin was not given advance notice of the United States’ decision to strike a Syrian target with missiles. “No contacts were made with Moscow, with President Putin,” Tillerson told reporters during a briefing with National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida”.
http://www.breitbart.com/bi…
Erdogan is fully supporting the US calling for no fly zones and the direct removal of Assad as soon as possible.
I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”.
I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”.
Time will show if your laughter is justified or not.
>> The Saker on April 07, 2017 · at 2:43 pm UTC
>>
>>I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”.
>
>Time will show if your laughter is justified or not.
Non-getters don’t get it, hence the justified name.
I fully agree with Anonymous on April 07, 2017 · at 1:53 pm UTC
Erdogan is playing Russia off against the US, a dangerous game. He may not survive the next assassination attempt, if his continual turn-coat actions outweigh his usefulness to the Syria/Russia project of an integrated Syria. Putin doesn’t need a new leader/100%-unknown factor in Turkey until the current Zionist/US/NATO Kurdistan plan is dead for Syria/Iraq/Turkey.
Erdogan is only out for himself, to become the new Sultan-for-life. If the Zionists can dream of re-creating a mythical Bible empire, then why should Erdogan give up his neo-Ottoman vision of re-creating a real Empire? At least that’s what Erdogan seems to think. Erdogan knows of the deal the US made to allow the Israeli-Zionists/Saudi-Wahabists to divide the Greater Middle East between them. Sultan Erdogan just wants his cut of the pie, which includes the part of Turkey the US wants to (sorta) give to the Kurds. (Don’t think Kurdistan will ever be anything but a US “protectorate”, like Puerto Rico.)
As for Putin’s response, he is too smart to fall for such picayune provocations. This is no 9/11. It is a blatant illegal operation, but attacking back only legitimizes the use of force. Gandhi: “An eye for an eye just makes the whole world blind”, and Christ said: “Turn the other cheek”.
I think Putin correctly reads the US population’s war-weariness. Even the most patriotic USican is under no illusions that the US has wasted vast resources, valuable time and irreplaceable international goodwill since the Deep State/Zionists put Saddam in their crosshairs. The negative reaction by formerly pro-Trump Zero Hedge regular posters is visceral…they’re smarting badly as Trump merely falls into POTUS war-monger line. There is little else Trump could have done to so completely turn great swaths of his “base” against him. He clearly said no more wars, and get out of the ones Obama perpetuated… and then this? I dare say the the US won’t try to replay Colin Powell’s buffoon/liar-performance at the UN, as the WMD-scam has lost its shock value.
The US has tipped its hand on this airbase, they think they’ll need it when they invade, which is why the airstrip/taxi-ways were undamaged. Expect this airfield (and any others lightly defended) will be stocked with Russian military/aircraft and advanced defense systems within the week. If the US wants a fight, Putin will make it clear it will not be the usual “no-fly-zone” cakewalk to destroying Syria.
Agree. Erdogan has lost every credibility from now on – not that earlier he was more stable, man thought he would – he reacts every time according to the new circumstances created on the ground, how could such a man be credible ? I think next time Russia will not give him any hint.
well said, I agree.
Dear The Saker,
Check out the UNSC meeting – Russia spoke about half an hour ago and tore strips off US/UK/France:
https://www.rt.com/news/383953-us-afraid-of-real-investigation-syria/
Called them out on all their hypocrisy and lies. Also Bolivian rep was brilliant – showed a picture of Colin Powell holding up the WMD at the UNSC before Iraq invasion :).
I agree, I think pulling the US before the UNSC is actually a decent return.
It’s the next time this all happens and the White Helmets and poor little Alabed are talking to camera – that’s the real test, that’s what this is all a set up for. Cos Russia will have to respond, and the neocons will want to respond by rolling their tanks into Ukraine. Balkanising Syria, Libyating Yemen, Afghanising Ukraine. And a profitable war with Russia.
Asad won’t go, because USA now can’t force him to step down, but they can still bleed Syria. I hope Russia won’t allow this too.
“I hope that the outrage inside Russia will force Lavrov to cancel his planned meeting with Tillerson. The usually sleepy Duma seems to be uncharacteristically outraged.”
-That seems unlikely, it seems very un-Russian to do so, to close channels of communication, quite the opposite, now is the time for more communication not less, I doubt Russia will cancel the meeting. It is not something a responsibility state would do. That is something a childish state would do, such as USA or one of its puppets.
” has become clear that the US strike was largely symbolic. Here is the evidence:”
-That is what I believe and said in the other article, Russians were warned, thus the Syrian were also warned, the base was small, it was of low importance and the attack itself caused no strategic harm, and certainly did not endanger the Syrian government.
I am very surprised that there are people who actually believe Russia will place itself between USA and Syria. Russia will do everything to avoid a conflict with USA, and if USA turns out to be utterly insane and attacks Syria, Russia will certainly back off. Russia is at a disadvantage because it is a rational state. Russia responsibility is to her people not to the Syrian people and Putin wont risk millions of Russian dying to save Syria. So if Russia gets a message from USA saying “We will attack, leave or be hit” Russia will certainly withdraw if they believe it to be true. Syria is not Russia redline, Ukraine is, and I am not even fully certain about that.
Not so sure about that at all. Russia has much more at stake than simply Syria. Backing down in front of the entire world is not something Russia can do. Not because it loves Syria, but precisely *because* Putin’s 1st and only responsibility is to Russia. Humiliation in Syria will be followed by Humiliation in Ukraine and then nonstop attempts at color revolution at home.
As for the US government, it behaves very brutishly but is definitely rational. The US will not risk openly attacking Russian forces. Neocons don’t want to die.
If it were as easy as you say it is, the US would have warned Russia to leave Syria a long time ago.
Yes, if Russia abandons Syria it will find itself fighting the Salafists in Chechnya, Dagestan and possibly even Central Asia. Every retreat that Russia makes has simply emboldened the Anglo-Zionist empire.What happens if Russia completely withdraws inside its own borders, does it think that its enemies are going to stop. Rhetorical question really. In fact Putin has said that any future war will not be fought on Russian territory. The long retreat from Berlin which started in the 1990s must stop – the alternative is abject surrender, which would be the ultimate betrayal of the Russian people and humanity in general.
@ Lysander
“As for the US government, it behaves very brutishly but is definitely rational. The US will not risk openly attacking Russian forces. Neocons don’t want to die.”
Perhaps you have no first hand experience of the sense of invulnerability, immortality and un-accountability of the super wealthy. Coupled with the fact that the US has thrown up some of the simplest, even thickest, leaders among the leading nations, for 25 years, and I am wiling to bet you that the idea of the demise of themselves and the US has not even entered their heads.
America will die because it deserves to.
I don’t think Russia will give up Syria. Syria is the front line of her southern defense. The withdrawal would leave Iran open for an attack as a result. And Iran is a very important ally of Russia not just in vain. If Iran falls, the road to southern Russia is open as well and the former Soviet republics in central Asia would be swallowed by jihadists.
You are not factoring in the Black Sea naval bases, the Syrian naval base and Mediterranean access.
“I still have not stopped laughing when Scott said ”Erdogan is now our guy”
-Erdogan is his own guy.
Erdogan governs Turkey, FFS. He has everyone wanting a piece of him and his country. You can’t trust him, can’t write him off ever. He knows what he has to say, no one knows what he really thinks, wants to do, or plans. He’s in total survival mode.
The one certainty, I think, is that he has learned that Russia is much closer and a much better friend than US & Nato.
I’m just not sure that Erdogan thinks in terms of ‘friendship’…he might be a psychopath – he’s definitely not a normal thinker. He’s a lizard.
I saw on RT where Major General Igor Konashenkov, chief spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Defense is saying that Syria’s Air Defenses will be shored up to protect vital infrastructure.
On the surface this looks good and it could be interpreted that Russia intends to stick by Syria.
Lets hope we dont get a further clarification saying its only to protect Russian assets only.
And wherevthe hellvus China at???
China is probably being made a new offer by the Anglo-Americans. We’ll see what happens in Florida.
They’re probably not being asked to break all ties with Russia, just to forget the SCO and multi-polarity in exchange for (special status) free sailing and commerce.
If so,China might want to ask the Native Americans about the US regime’s record on agreements. Before they commit national suicide .
I know. According to you guys, Vlad, Donny and Melania should have been wine and dine in Mar-a-Lago long ago…
China is ace up the sleeve. Let the Empire blow all their strats trying to paint Russia as the bg bad, then when Russia needs help, rise the dragon.
I was encouraged by China’s response at unsc.
With the highest level of respect and personal admiration for President Putin, his reaction to Trump’s bombing of the Syrian Arab Army was predictable, as I wrote in my article for Geopolitika.Ru yesterday which accurately forecast Russia’s behavior.
I’m not condemning or criticizing it in any way, but am drawing attention to the fact that it’s possible to forecast these statements if one retains a sober and objective mindset when conducting scenario analyses.
If questions still remain, please refer to my entire article for a comprehensive explanation about Russia’s reaction:
“Libya Redux:
To sum it all up, Russia will assuredly react to any intensified American aggression against Syria, whether executed unilaterally or together with its Turkish and possible Saudi-led “coalition” allies, but it won’t militarily respond to these moves in any way that would risk setting off a larger Great Power conflict.
Russia’s expected rhetoric would represent a moral victory, especially if it emphasized that the US was behaving in contravention of international law just like it was in Iraq and Libya, but this would actually be a pyrrhic one because its words would be powerless to change any of the rapidly unfolding events on the ground.
They might align with the prevailing “politically correct” zeitgeist in the Alt-Media community which self-righteously preaches the primacy of international law and Russia’s relative “moral” standing, but the “realpolitik” motivations which are guiding Russia’s strategists – for better or for worse – contradict these slogans.”
http://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/how-neocons-are-tempting-trump-syria
surely the point will come when Russians vox populi will not approve of continuing any co-operation with the Janus headed Erdogan, as a member of NATO-surely Russians are not going to accept working with this hydra? NATO itself will be pushing Turkey not to co-ordinate or anything else with Russia, especially as turkey and Ukraine as a willing to be member and used as such by McCain and Co plus explicit USA support, have common understandings or partnerships or diplomatic relations of various kinds…………
@ Andrew Korybko: Erdogan is living on borrowed time, and will soon find out being a former “staunch ally” of the US in the Middle East is usually a life-ending proposition (Saddam, Gadaffi). Putin will not defend Erdogan like he is Assad, even if in the near future The Sultan pledges eternal friendship to Russia. On-again/off-again gas pipelines and tourist trade is just business… being a repeat turncoat violates trust, a commodity Putin values highly. Putin understands “interests”, which is why he tolerates Erdogan’s attempts to stymie the formation of a US-controlled Kurdistan in Iraq/Syria/Turkey. (or IS Caliphate, or whatever golem some psychopathic Zionist think-tank conjures up next)
Putin saved Erdogan’s life once, overlooked the Gulenist shooting down of the Russian jet. But Turkey rejoining the US in military incursions into Syria? Putin will only help keep Erdogan in place until the Syrian issue is settled.
Well, Trump is a moron and has fallen into a trap, if only by not waiting for any investigation, bypassing the United Nations Security Council, even avoiding its vote, and went straight on to a unilateral “unproved and dastardly attack” (to use F. D. Roosevelt’s words) Syria without even presenting any proofs.
He basically destroyed the only thing that had previously retained and made a double moron of himself (regarding his former tweets).
He has destroyed all cooperation with Russia, thus also all standing that he may have had with Russia and In Syria, he completely destroyed not only his own reputation but also that of his cuntry.
He lost his only remaining allies because the official allies already consider him a dangerous nut.
Taken all in all, he has irreparably damaged all the image that Obama had painstakingly built.
All the “political capital” (so to speak) which Obama administration had built around international law with which they were bashing Russia), all the sham stories about abiding international law are going to be turned into shame for the U.S.A., as Russia can now comfortably use all the Western arsenal of lofty reasoning to bash, condemn, denounce and deride the United States of Aggression at every possible opportunity.
You’re 100% correct, Martin, Donald Trump fell right into a trap. He not only didn’t wait for any investigation, but bypassed the UNSC as well, even avoiding its vote, and went straight on to a unilateral “unproved and dastardly attack” (to use FDR’s words) on Syria without even presenting any evidence.
As you said, Trump basically destroyed the only thing that had previously retained and made a double moron of himself (regarding his former tweets). He’s destroyed all cooperation with Russia, thus also all standing that he may have had with Russia and in Syria, he completely destroyed not only his own reputation, but also that of his country. His own “base” of supporters have now turned their backs on him and will never trust him again.
All the political capital (so to speak which Obama administration had built around international law with which they were bashing Russia), all the sham stories about abiding international law are going to be turned into shame for the USA, as Russia can now comfortably use all the Western arsenal of lofty reasoning to bash, condemn, denounce and deride the United States of Aggression at every possible unity.
Very brilliantly said, Martin, and I couldn’t agree with you more. Rand Paul, in stating that Trump had violated the Separation of Powers Clause in the Constitution by bypassing Congress, is 100% right.
I don’t believe it. This is so for-planned its as blatant as Trump himself – he fell into no trap – he was fore-warned and is doing what he thinks is best…that’s Donald Trump for you.
I’m appalled at the folks who think that these people (Trump & co) are innocent fools…they’re not – making as much money as Trump has done tells us obviously that he’s a sly as they come.
I just don’t know whether he’s fooled us all, including Putin and Russia and many powerful thinkers in Russia – some of whom Saker has introduced us to – such as the ‘five minutes of common sense’ guy –
Or whether he is on course still but doing it his way – ‘go along to get along’ is an apt Trump philosophy…
It seems to me that this strike against Syria was to deflect attention away from something else – the attention of the public and the attention of the neo-cons.
just appeared title on Duran;
http://theduran.com/confirmed-russian-warship-armed-with-cruise-missiles-head-towards-us-destroyers/
I’m not convinced that the Russians speculate so to get away from the fighting at the expense of others. if they think that should “break the nose to americans”, they will do it. they will not “lead from behind”. they have honour.
It is “you give him a inch, they will take a foot”. At some point, Putin will have to act to put a stop to it. But I think for now, Putin will wait, bid his time, prepare, and look for a good point. If ISIS took Syria, the consequence would be server.
If you are indeed Andrei Korybko, then your credibility is pretty poor given the pro-Pakistan junk you published on katehon, your sycophantic interview on a Pakistani news internet channel. Each of your predictions about Russia realigning with Pakistan over India never happened and was predictably soundly rebuked by the Russian defense and diplomatic establishment and the Russian ambassador to India.
The sympathy you showed to a Salafist terrorism sponsoring state is shameful and pretty much skewers your credibility as an objective analyst.
Kaai, I think its easier to attack someone who puts out a strong statement = than to put out a strong statement.
Andrew is a respectable and intelligent writer who sticks out his neck to give us alot to think about, and, by the way, of course its Andrew Korybko – !! –
Anyhoot, I think Andrew’s a very interesting participant in the events of the times, and I appreciate him and all his work…he’s a talented guy, who’s on our side….
no need to fight and bite within the ranks – just because his politics isn’t exactly your politics.
If Russia wasn’t willing to respond to NATO-GCC aggression against Syria, then the SAA would have been destroyed since 2011. It’s also because Russia is willing to respond that the US cruise missile strike was nothing more than cosmetic.
@ PokeTheTruth
Thank you for that excellent post…
There can be no more game playing now because I tell ya’ folks…there is a big Syria invasion in the works…and it’s going to come from Turkish territory…
It is amazing to me how everyone still continues to blather on about Turkey and the Kurds…
I will tell you this right now…Turkey is…and has been…the prime mover in the tilt against Syria for a long time…
I have posted this link already several times but nobody seems to have bothered to read this…please read it…history…if not exactly repeating does often rhyme…
Now before posting the link I will give some context…this article was written by a Council on Foreign Relations guy back in 2013…exactly when Obama was just about to pull the trigger on Syria…
The point of the article was to give some historical perspective…please folks…when you see events suddenly start picking up speed like this…it is always important to try to absorb as much history as possible…
Many here are always screaming about Israel…yes Israel is a dirtbag…but they are too small a force to overrun and occupy Syria…
The US always prefers someone else to do their fighting for them…and they will of course provide massive aerial and cruise missile strikes…
The only player in the region who is…or ever was…powerful enough to overrun and occupy Syria is Turkey…
The following citation comes from a book called…The First War on Terrorism: Counter-Terrorism Policy during the Reagan Administration
‘…When Assad challenges Israel and the Marines in Lebanon, he knows that if Israel attacks him it cannot occupy all of Syria. Assad feels he can always retreat to the North and set up a smaller state and with stronger Alawite control. However, if Turkey is brought into the calculations of Rifaat [Assad] (the real power in Syria) and Hafez, their calculations will be totally different and would be impossible to add up without losing their power. If Syria is attacked by Turkey from the north the Alawite stronghold will be gone at the start and Assad and his supporters will have to fall back on an ocean of hateful Sunni moslems (sic) in the south where they will be eaten like lost sheep. Therefore the pressure on Syria should come from Turkey and not from the Marines and or Israel…’
The link to the article is here…
http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2012/02/13/when-america-attacked-syria/
Now let’s step back for a minute…we must realize that the general public…including those here…tend to work under certain or other assumptions…simply because we do not have very much information…
We know that Obama pulled back from the brink in 2013…but we don’t really know why…for one thing there was not huge public support at the time…with Libya still fresh in people’s minds the UK parliament voted against it…there was not much support in US congress either…
The West was still war-weary from Iraq and Afghanistan…and besides that the Ukraine project was clearly far along in the planning stage at this point…the neocon powers that be figured…correctly…that Syria could remain as is…hemorrhaging slowly…while they fried the bigger Ukraine fish…
That worked out brilliantly…The Russians taking back Crimea and then the uprising in Donbass…the MH17 propaganda gift that keeps on giving…and of course the massive anti-Russia PR campaign that we have seen since…the sanctions…etc…
Trump presented himself as a rational player who was not going to pursue any more neocon overseas conquests…he was even going to make friends with Russia…
These are all assumptions that people have accepted at pretty much face value…but really…why should we accept anything at face value…?
Trump is not an idiot…he probably didn’t know any better until he got to the White House…
Now he knows how the US operates and why it needs to keep operating this way…
Back in 2013 it wasn’t Syria’s time…Ukraine was on the front burner…now the time is ripe for Syria and the neocon world order is not going to be denied…why should we assume that Trump cannot find a lot of common ground with the neocon plan…?
That would be simply stupid…he simply did not have the information that he does now…and that info…whatever it may be…has clearly changed his world view…he said as much the other day…’I’m flexible…I’ve changed my mind on Syria…’…like he would not the very first to smell the false flag rat that is reeking to high heaven…
Drumpf’s unpredictability is actually a great strength in politics…politics is a blood sport folks…[it was Kissinger who said Drumpf could end up being a ‘great’ p[resident because of hi unpredictability…]
And now Erdogan…why should anyone make the foolish assumption that this very clever and exceedingly unpredictable player can be taken at face value…?
Last fall he was all kissy huggy with his Papa Putin…then bam…he invades Syria…a couple of months later the Russian envoy in Ankara is gunned down by a Turkish cop who raises the index finger salute of Al Qaeda while holding the gun and shouting allahu akbar…
Then we find out that a bunch of Turkish officers were hiding out with suicide belt wearing terrorists in Aleppo…the bearded fanatics and their families [!] were bused to safety in Idlib…thanks to Uncle Erdo…
For the past few months Erdo’s army has been conquering Syrian territory…his army now has a toehold inside the country…this is very significant folks…
And please don’t tell me about the Kurds…the Kurds are not even an issue…this is another assumption…how is it that Turkey is on great terms with the Barzani clan that runs Iraqi Kurdistan…?
Now let’s go back to 1983…this was long before Erdo…Turkey was run by Generals who had no interest in starting any major wars…back then the Kurds actually were a big problem right inside Turkey
Have a look at this…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish%E2%80%93Turkish_conflict_(1978%E2%80%93present)
All the info is right there in that little box on the right…40,000 plus Kurds killed…according to Turkish sources…
We can safely assume that a much higher true number exists…The US let Turkey carry out a genocide and nobody said boo…still don’t…all the while the West was screaming about Russians putting down Chechnya…which was a drop in the bucket by comparison…
So in 1983 we have a superpower Soviet Union that is supporting Syria…and even so…the neocons of the day are trying to get the Turks to do the dirty work…only the Turkish generals weren’t that stupid…
We are also assuming that the US is the prime mover behind the Syria regime change project…?…how do we know that…?…cui bono…?
Nobody benefits more than Turkey…cutting up Syria and annexing the Turkmen lands in the north…and being the kingmaker in much of the rest…
Come on folks…Erdogan’s calculus is that he can challenge Russia in Syria if he gets the US to back him up…it’s as simple as that…if he gets the green light he is going to move on Syria in a heartbeat
What does Drumpf have to lose in this…?…He’s a player too…he can promise Erdo full support for a Syria invasion and even help a little…
And if things go well and Russia backs down and lets Syria twist in the wind then it is only a win for the long game of destroying Russia…
If Russia fights and kicks Erdo’s ass out of Syria…then so what…?…US has no big stake there anyway…neither does Israel…they want the West Bank and Lebanon…that’s what Israel can reasonably handle…they are about seizing and keeping…they will of course keep the Golan…
So let’s be clear-headed about some of our assumptions…we really do not know what is really at play behind the scenes…but we have enough info to make good guesses…
Some recent events…Tillerson goes to Ankara…Syrian terrorists are once again getting money and weapons from the US…after having been briefly cut off earlier this year…
Erdo now says Astana is dead…the moderate rebels under his wing are launching renewed offensives…
The fact that Russia has allowed Turkish troops to remain in Syria has been a festering sore …Erdo has been pushing to see how far he can go…and the pushback from Putin never comes…
Now I ask you…we are also assuming that Putin is endlessly playing the patient and diplomatic game…
But what is to stop the Russian leader from bitch-slapping Erdo so hard that his ears are going to ring for the next 20 years…?
Let’s turn the question around…The West’s calculus is whether Putin is really going to stand up and fight for Assad if push comes to shove…
Well…how about this math…is the US and rotten EU going to stand up for Erdo if Putin decides to go ballistic on Turkish terrorist scum in Syria…?
Please put that in your pipe and smoke it…
It seems to me that the Russian statement was well-nigh perfect. Brief, complete, measured yet firm.
When conducting international relations in a situation that could very rapidly lead to thermonuclear exchange, it is essential to be cautious and to telegraph one’s intentions (the way Trump did not).
Incidentally, if it has been confirmed that the US government did warn the Russians, Secretary of State Tillerson lied in his teeth today.
“Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed on Thursday night that President Vladimir Putin was not given advance notice of the United States’ decision to strike a Syrian target with missiles. “No contacts were made with Moscow, with President Putin,” Tillerson told reporters during a briefing with National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida”.
http://www.breitbart.com/bi…