OBB—The Sea of Azov is a vital transport corridor. By attacking tankers carrying fuel from Russian ports to Crimea, Ukraine severely complicates the ability of Russian forces to resupply their southern group of forces. Russia relies heavily on a “shadow fleet” of aging, obscurely owned tankers to bypass Western sanctions and the G7 oil price cap. Targeting these vessels directly weakens Russia’s energy-export revenues, contributing to domestic fuel shortages and export bans within Russia. Ukraine’s ability to reliably strike dozens (the number 45 is cited today by Military Summary) of Russian ships over a matter of days demonstrates the continued success of its asymmetrical naval strategy. By deploying advanced sea drones rather than relying on a traditional navy, Kyiv is successfully neutralizing large portions of Russian naval logistics while imposing localized blockades on occupied territories.
The overall energy war (Russia targeting gas stations and other energy facilities in Ukraine, Ukraine targeting Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities) threatens to dent the volume of Russian oil sales, applies greater pressure on oil prices at a time when these are already under threat from the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, make it more difficult for countries to restock oil reserves, and contributes to the possibility of a looming global economic recession or depression.
