Larry Johnson: The US Missile Defense Shortage is Worse than Imagined

Larry C. Johnsonsonar21

Donald Trump made a bold and provably wrong claim yesterday about the US air-defense missile inventory:

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The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better — was stated to me today we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries’ finest arms!). At highest end we have good supply but not where we want to be. Much additional high-grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries.

I will now show you conclusively that Trump is gaslighting the public, at least with respect to the PAC-3 MSE missiles. The PAC-3 MSE (Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement) is effectively the primary missile used in the modern Patriot system for most high-priority threats, particularly in current U.S. Army and allied operations as of 2026. The PAC-3 MSE ( Missile Segment Enhancement) began low-rate initial production (LRIP) in 2014, with deliveries starting in 2015 and full-rate production approved in 2018.

Starting in 2015 and continuing through 2020, the US produced between 100 — 300 a year. Let’s use the higher figure… That is 1,800 PAC-3 MSE. In the succeeding four year period, the US produced an estimated 2,200 PAC-3 MSEs (i.e., 500+ per year). In 2025 the US boosted production to 620. Total PAC-3 MSEs produced since 2015 is 4,620.

When the PAC-3 MSE is employed against an incoming threat, a minimum of two are fired. Keep that figure in mind. So how many have we sent Ukraine? According to open source documents, including DOD/DOW budget figures, the the US has transferred 847 PAC-3 MSE missiles to Ukraine. Assuming that the US and Israel have NOT fired any PAC-3 MSE missiles in 2025 and 2026, the US only has 3,773 in its inventory. We know that is ridiculous, but play along with me.

During the 12-day war Iran fired at least 600 ballistic missiles into Israel. In theory, the Patriot system is designed to work against ballistic missiles, while Israel’s Iron Dome is designed to defeat short-range counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) defense, plus capabilities against drones, cruise missiles, precision-guided munitions (PGMs), and some ballistic threats in certain configurations. So let’s assume that the Patriot was fired at 500 of the Iranian missiles — i.e., at least 1,000 PAC-3 MSE missiles were fired. That shrinks the US inventory to 2,773.

Starting in 2015 and continuing through 2020, the US produced between 100 — 300 a year. Let’s use the higher figure… That is 1,800 PAC-3 MSE. In the succeeding four year period, the US produced an estimated 2,200 PAC-3 MSEs (i.e., 500+ per year). In 2025 the US boosted production to 620. Total PAC-3 MSEs produced since 2015 is 4,620.

When the PAC-3 MSE is employed against an incoming threat, a minimum of two are fired. Keep that figure in mind. So how many have we sent Ukraine? According to open source documents, including DOD/DOW budget figures, the the US has transferred 847 PAC-3 MSE missiles to Ukraine. Assuming that the US and Israel have NOT fired any PAC-3 MSE missiles in 2025 and 2026, the US only has 3,773 in its inventory. We know that is ridiculous, but play along with me.

During the 12-day war Iran fired at least 600 ballistic missiles into Israel. In theory, the Patriot system is designed to work against ballistic missiles while Israel’s Iron Dome is designed to defeat short-range counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) defense, plus capabilities against drones, cruise missiles, precision-guided munitions (PGMs), and some ballistic threats in certain configurations. So let’s assume that the Patriot was fired at 500 of the Iranian missiles — i.e., at least 1,000 PAC-3 MSE missiles were fired. That shrinks the US inventory to 2,773.

In just four days since the start of Epic Fury, Iran has fired an estimated 200 missiles at sites in the Gulf nations and Israel that have Patriot batteries. Conceivably, that means that another 400 PAC-3 MSE missiles have been launched, which shrinks the inventory to 2,373. If Iran fires 60 ballistic missiles per day, and the Patriot system uses 2 interceptors per incoming missile (a common conservative engagement doctrine for high-confidence intercepts against ballistic threats), the inventory would be exhausted after 19 full days, with enough left on the 20th day to handle roughly 46–47 Iranian missiles before depletion (about 19.775 days total, or roughly 19 days and 18–19 hours of sustained operations at this rate). In other words, the US PAC-3 MSE missiles will be exhausted on March 23, 2026.

Note that I am assuming that the entire inventory of US Patriot missiles have been deployed to Israel and US bases in the region. That is a false assumption because there are Patriot missile batteries with a full complement of missiles in other theaters. At present there are three Patriot battalions permanently assigned/forward-deployed to INDOPACOM (e.g., in South Korea/Japan/Guam areas, like 35th ADA Brigade and 1-1 ADA at Kadena); EUCOM has one Patriot battalion assigned (e.g., units in Germany like Baumholder/Ansbach areas, supporting NATO/Eastern flank).

The US Army has 15 Patriot battalions total (14 fully available as of mid-2025, with one in modernization), each typically consisting of 4–6 batteries (a battery is the firing unit with launchers/radars). A Patriot battery (also called a fire unit) typically includes 6–8 launchers (Launching Stations), though configurations vary by operator, mission, and launcher type (e.g., M903 for modern U.S. systems). If we assume that the four Patriot battalions have four batteries each, with 72 missiles per battery, we get a total of 1,152 missiles that must be subtracted from the maximum possible number deployed to the Middle East — i.e., the actual inventory, using the most conservative estimate, is 1,221. That means the US inventory of PAC-3 MSE missiles, using the assumptions above that Iran is firing 60 ballistic missiles per day, the supply of missiles will run out in 10 days. This is why I assert that Donald Trump is out of touch with reality.

Instead of my regular one-on-one chat with Marcello, he hosted a panel today with me, Commandante Farinazzo and Ricardo Amadesi:

My dear friend Rasheed Mohammed and I chatted for about forty minutes today about the situation in Iran:

My new Iranian friend, Fouad, interviewed me on Monday and posted the video today:

I did a video journey to the homeland of some of my ancestors… Ireland. Gerry O’Neill and I discussed the ridiculous claim that the US could deploy ground forces to Iran: