Brian Berletic
THE NEW ATLAS
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After repeatedly lying to Iran, attacking it amid negotiations designed specifically to lure it into complacency, then announcing a 2 week deadline to decide on strikes on Iran that took place hours later, US President Trump is claiming a ceasefire was agreed to;
▪️Iran would need to be beyond naive to accept or trust any word or action by the US - the US has not spent decades trying to topple Iran amid its regional murder spree to suddenly abandon it - its ENTIRE global aspirations hinge on it - it has used Israel as a conduit to launder its war crimes & provocations through & will continue to;
▪️To effect regime change, the US would benefit most by luring Iranian leaders out of cover & striking them, provoking retaliations & further war;
▪️Iran requires not a "Libya model," but a "North Korea model" or else this process will repeat itself until it concludes in Washington and Wall Street's favor;
▪️The same "experts" who failed to see this war coming in the first place are now citing 5D chess strategies to explain how the Trump administration somehow averted a war entirely of its (and the establishment it serves) own creation and design to begin with;
▪️The US will only stop when (1) people stop falling for this through excessive delusion, and (2) the rest of the world unites to force the US to stop;
▪️If a genuine ceasefire is reached, it will likely have been the work of Russia and China quietly forcing the US to, through private but sufficient threats coupled with a graceful public exit ramp - though the chances of the US honoring it hover around 0%;
References:
The New Atlas (X) - Claims of US-Israel-Iran "Ceasefire" (June 24, 2025): https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1...
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran (2009): https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/...
RAND Corporation - Dangerous But Not Omnipotent, Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East (2009): https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/...
Washington Post - Israeli warning call to top Iranian general: ‘You have 12 hours to escape’ (Jun 23, 2025): https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...
The Jewish Daily Forward - How Iran’s Jews Survive in Mullahs’ World (Aug. 2015): https://forward.com/news/319269/irans...
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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS
1 comment
Cassandra’s curse was that her predictions were always right but nobody ever listened to her.
EVERYBODY MUST LISTEN TO BRIAN BERLETIC.
Here are well reasoned summaries as to why Israel is screwed in any conventional conflict with Iran lasting more than 2 weeks* and why the US can do nothing about it.
Bottom line: Israel’s missile defences were ineffective, their interceptors were being depleted** and cannot be adequately replenished***, Israeli defensive missiles are magnitudes more expensive than the ordnance Iran was hurling at them and Iran has hidden underground reserves of tens of thousands of missiles (which even SatanYahoo admitted), hence Iran can easily long outlast both Israel and the US in any conflict lasting more than a fortnight*.
All the above considerations apply equally to US missile defences of their bases in Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc etc.
Iran outlasted Iraq in the 8 year 1980 to 88 war when Saddam was still a US proxy and Iran was isolated. Today Iran is backed by Russia, China and Pakistan.
*which is why Israel needed a ceasefire by day 12, being on the verge of collapse.
**need to fire 2 to 3 interceptors for an 80 to 90% chance of bringing down 1 incoming non-steerable subsonic missile or decoy. Initial ordnance Iran shot into Israel was either old generation cheap missiles or, as the payloads separated in terminal descent, worthless scrap metal decoys.
More modern, more precise and much faster, steerable missiles for which Israel and US bases have zero defence against, are mostly held in reserve by Iran and were only starting to be deployed by day 12.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5VXlbRHMjs
*** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_ADCeXkq_s