Car Industry 2025 Update Europe & Africa

Europe

Sales of Chinese branded vehicles (including Volvo) more than doubled in Q4, reaching a 9.4% share of the European market. BYD’s Hungary plant has a capacity of 300,000 vehicles per year, but will run somewhat below that when it first starts volume production in Q2 of this year; with production of the Dolphin, Atto 2 and Seal. In December, BYD sold 27,678 vehicles in Europe, so the new plant together with increased imports from China will easily support a further doubling of BYD market share; toward 5% by the end of 2026. With a Geely-Volvo recovery from its previous sales fall, with vehicles such as the Swedish made EX60, and the other Chinese brands increasing local production and imports the Chinese market share could possibly reach close to 20% by the end of 2026.

By the end of 2026, BYD’s Turkish plant with a capacity of 150,000 will be in production; much of which will be exported to Europe. In addition, Xiaomi has already stated that it will be exporting vehicles from 2027 onwards, and brands such as Seres Aito may also follow. 2026 will be a very tough year for the non-Chinese vehicle brands in Europe, and 2027 may be existential in that market for some fo them.

VW has managed to hold its own, but even its momentum faded in Q4. Renault saw falling y-o-y sales in December after being strong earlier in the year, while Stellantis maintained its weakening position. Hyundai and BMW just about held their own, while Mercedes declined. Toyota was the biggest faller among the Japanese car makers, with Nissan, Suzuki, Mazda and Mitsubishi following. Only Honda managed to hold its own. Land Rover continues its descent, while Tesla saw what should be a very worrying significant decline in the face of a 50% jump in BEV sales; that was with the large Q4 jump in Norwegian sales due to incentive changes.

Over one quarter of European car sales are now BEVs, and more than one tenth are PHEVs; in December, 36.8% of sales were EVs. This can only continue to increase in 2026, especially with the production from the new Europe-located Chinese EV plants.

October; November; December (EU + EFTA + UK)

Overall Sales: 1.092 million (+4.9%); 1.080 million (+2.4%); 1.173 million (+7.6%)

BEV Share: 20.6% (vs. 16.3% year ago); 23.5% (17.5%); 26.3% (18.8%)

PHEV Share: 10.7% (8%); 10.4% (8%); 10.5% (8.3%)

China Share: 6.8% (3.4%); 7.4% (3.7%); 9.4% (4.1%)

1. VW: 28.3% (+6.5% y-o-y); 27.7% (+4.1% y-o-y); 26.1% (+10.2% y-o-y)

2. Stellantis: 14.4% (+4.6%); 12.9% (-2.7%); 11.2% (+4.5%)

3. Renault: 10.4% (+10.6%); 10.7% (+3%); 10.8% (-2.2%)

4. Hyundai: 7.5% (-1.4%); 7.4% (+0.2%); 7.1% (+5.5%)

5. BMW: 7.5% (+6.4%); 7.6% (+1.7%); 7.3% (+3%)

6. Toyota: 6.8% (-11.9%); 6.9% (-9.9%); 6.9% (-8.8%)

7. Mercedes: 5.1% (-2.9%); 5.3% (-7.8%); 5.6% (+0.4%)

8. Ford: 3.1% (-6.3%); 3.1% (+0.8%); 2.8% (+8.5%)

9. Geely-Volvo: 2.6% (-5.3%); 2.5% (-14.8%); 2.9% (+3.6%)

10. SAIC: 2.2% (+35.9%); 2.2% (+20.9%); 2.7% (+15.5%)

11. BYD: 1.6% (+206.8%); 2% (+221.8%); 2.4% (+230%)

12. Tesla: 0.6% (-48.5%); 2.1% (-11.8%); 3% (-20.2%)

13. Nissan: 1.9% (-2.4%); 1.9% (-10%); 1.9% (-5.9%)

14. Suzuki: 1.3% (-4.6%); 1.1% (-13.5%); 1.2% (+0.5%)

15. Mazda: 1.1% (-7.1%); 1.2% (+8.4%); 1.2% (-5.9%)

16. Land Rover: 0.7% (-0.1%); 0.8% (-28.6%); 0.8% (-11.9%)

17. Honda: 0.5% (-2.3%); 0.5% (+18.5%); 0.4% (+2.1%)

18. Mitsubishi: 0.2% (-46.1%); 0.2% (-25.5%); 0.5% (+0.8%)

Chery is not currently listed in the ACEA statistics, but in the UK alone its brands (Chery, Jaecoo, Omoda) sold 7,205 vehicles - a 0.6% European market share just with the UK sales. The group sold 120,207 vehicles in Europe for the whole of 2025, a market share of 0.9%. With its sales growing throughout the year it is safe to say that Chery outsold Land Rover, and quite possibly Mazda and Suzuki in December.

For the three biggest markets - Q4

• Germany: 747,243 (+6.7% y-o-y)

  All German brands increased, apart from Porsche. SAIC-MG sold 8,218.

  • BEV: 162,945, up 56.5% (21.8% share); PHEV: 93,188, up 59% (12.5% share)

    • Tesla 4,544, down 40% (2.8% BEV share). BYD sales were 11,488.

• UK: 442,351 (+2% y-o-y)

  In December, Chinese brands (excl. Volvo & Polestar) had a 18.2% share; #4 MG ZS, #6 Jaecoo 7, #7 MG HS. Japanese, Mercedes, Porsche heavily down.

  • BEV: 123,934, up 13% (28% share); PHEV: 52,504, up 23% (11,9% share)

    • Tesla 10,569, down 25.4% (8.5% BEV market share). BYD 15,818.

• France: 445,378 (-3% y-o-y)

  Renault market share fell from 26% (Oct) to 23.7% (December), Toyota’s share also fell from 23.4% to 20.7%. Stellantis also fell from 25.7% to 19.9%. Both SAIC MG and BYD gained, with sales up over 60% y-o-y.

  • BEV: 109,279 up 50% (24.5% share); PHEV: 36,551, down 20% (8.2% share)

    • Tesla 5,319, down 53% (4.9% BEV market share)

The Chinese Invasion Accelerates

The Chinese invasion will accelerate in 2026, aided by the opening up and expansion of a number of Chinese car manufacturing plants in Hungary, Spain and Turkey (the latter enjoys free trade with the EU). Aided by the continuing increase in EV market share (especially BEVs), Chinese brands will expand on their 8% share of the European market.

The Chery Tiggo 8, 7 seat SUV, for GBP 28,545 for the ICEV and GBP 33,545 for the PHEV. A Nissan X-tail ICEV starts at GBP 36,225, a VW Tiguan Allspace ICEV starts from GBP 36,920, a Hyundai Santa FeICEV starts at GBP 48,930. Chery is offering a lower price with a relatively premium package; with new models and pricing like this, Chery will continue to expand rapidly in the UK and Europe more generally.

Xpeng is also increasingly entering the European market, with cars like the G6, and has started localized production in Austria.

And Leapmotor sold 1,289 cars in the UK in October, from zero the previous year, with cars like the B10 that has extremely competitive pricing. Its Spanish plant will start producing vehicles in Q3 this year, with further expansion in 2027.

And then there is of course, BYD with the Sealion 7 BEV. It will be starting production at its Hungary plant in the second quarter of this year, and at its Turkey plant late in the year.

And the BYD Seal U PHEV.

The Jaecoo 7 is a direct competitor to the Range Rover Evoque, and a very strong one with pretty much an equal specification but less than half the price to lease. Chery (the owner of the Jaecoo and Omoda brands) is increasing production at its Spanish plant.

Then there is the Xpeng G9 full sized luxury SUV.

And this coming from Leapmotor, very bad news for the VW ID.3 and other such vehicles.

Geely is also working to turn around Volvo, this is the up coming Volvo EX60 BEV which is estimated to cut the BMW iX3 and Mercedes GLC in price. With high quality cabin materials, a purported range of 400 miles, and the technology levels that you would expect from a Chinese brand vehicle, it may be a very strong competitor. The top spec. vehicle s even less than a top spec. smaller ICEV Audi Q3 (see below)! It will be manufactured in Sweden, sidestepping the anti-China EV trade measures while also benefitting from the Canada-EU free trade agreement and lower tariffs in the US market. The vehicle is not “initially” planned for China, as it will most probably not be competitive in that market without a Chinese manufacturing base.

At the same time, Great Wall Motor is scouting for a European location to build a car plant with a capacity to build 300,000 vehicles. If the UK is the shape of things to come for Europe as a whole, in December Chinese brands (including Volvo) had 23.7% of the light vehicle market.

Tesla Continues To Deteriorate

Tesla sales collapsed by 37% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2025, but then stabilized somewhat with the y-o-y declines falling to 29% (Q2) and 19% (Q3) with the aid of the new Model Y and increasing European BEV sales. But in December (the third and therefore top selling month for a quarter) sales were down 20.2% in contrast to a 50% rise in European BEV sales; its market share was only 3%. Tesla’s market share of the European EV market nearly halved from 11% in 2024 to 6.2% in 2025; with its BEV share more than halving. With a deeply damaged brand, and no new models on the horizon, the future seems bleak for Tesla in Europe; falling sales in the face of rising sales for BEVs in Europe generally. December 2025 sales, historically the strongest sales month of the year, were lower than September 2025 sales; even with the end of year incentive-driven surge in Norwegian sales. In January 2025, Tesla’s sales are lagging the year ago level.

The End of Jaguar Land Rover?

Jaguar Land Rover has been living off nostalgia for a very long time, and the challenge of the Chinese off-road and luxury SUVs may be finishing it off. In China, JLR sales peaked at 106,377 in 2023, then 91,115 (down 14%) in 2024 as the Chinese competition picked up. By May 2025, JLR was announcing an end to the production of its own cars in China, after losing US$18.7 million China in the previous fiscal year. Jaguar production has already ceased and Range Rover production will finish by the end of next year, and Chery will produce China-focused models for JLR under a new Freelander brand. In Q3 2025, JLR sales in China fell 22.5% y-o-y.

In Q2 of 2025, global JLR sales fell 15.1% to 94,420. then dropped further to 85,495 (-17.1%) in the third quarter. In the UK, the botched rebranding lead to a collapse in Jaguar sales - driving the 32.3% y-o-y drop in sales. In October 2025, Jaguar sales in the UK were zero, vs. 1,405 a year previously. Land Rover sales are now reported separately given the fall in Jaguar sales to zero.

Land Rover UK sales were up 7.63% in December 2025 to 3,906 in a car market that grew by 3.9%, but in December sales in Europe as a whole were down 4.8% to only 9,244. Ironically, Chery (JLR’s partner in China) and the other Chinese manufacturers may be about to provide the denouement for JLR in the UK. Chery’s Jaecoo premium off-road brand sold 3,814 vehicles in the UK in December, up 1,725% compared to a year previously. Chery’s other premium SUV brand, Omoda, sold 1,804 vehicles in December (up 126% y-o-y). With the likes of BYD and Xpeng bringing their luxury SUV models to the UK, Land Rover may be in very serious trouble in its home market this year.

Without Chinese production, JLR may be down to manufacturing only about 200,000 cars per year; a trivial amount compared to its opposition. Especially when that opposition is producing one EREV and BEV model after another. JLR could easily be forced to have Chery produce all of its non-ICEV cars globally while it continues with the ICEV cars that will still be in demand in a US protected from Chinese competition; US demand is about 100,000 per year, an amount equal to the 100,000 cars that the UK can export to the US at a reduced 10% tariff. There will also continue to be some ICEV demand in the MENA region. Other markets are moving toward EREV and BEV models at different rates. Are such low volumes even financially sustainable? JLR is not a UK company, it is owned by Tata Motors, but its main production facilities are in the UK; so its loss will be a loss to UK car manufacturing. The other mass manufacturers in the UK are Nissan with about 300,000 cars per year (with European sales falling by 5.9% y-o-y in December), Mini (BMW) at 200,000 per year, and Vauxhall (Stellantis) at about 80,000 per year.

The Japanese On An Exit Path

Only Hyundai-Kia and Toyota of the non-Chinese Asian manufacturers hold a significant market share, and the former is just maintaining market share in Europe while the latter is seeing an intensifying drop in its sales. All of the other Japanese brands have a small market share and are suffering from different rates of falling sales (excluding Honda which has very small sales figures in Europe); with Mitsubishi easily the worst with sales falling nearly a quarter in Q4, year over year.

German Luxury Car Makers Take Different Paths

Audi’s global sales were down 2.9% in 2025 to 1.64MM, with falls of 12.2% in sales in North America and 5% in China offset by slightly higher sales in Europe and a 5.5% rise in other markets; with 41% of sales in Europe, 38% of sales in China, and 13% in North America. The latter collapsed by 36% in Q4 2025, and VW has cancelled a planned Audi manufacturing facility in the US. The ICEV-oriented US market is set to represent an even smaller share of Audi sales, with the brand becoming split between a Europe with locally developed and manufactured vehicles and a China with its own locally developed and manufactured vehicles; the latter with the AUDI brand. Any acceleration in the fall in sales in China would rapidly become a major crisis for Audi. As more and more of the Chinese higher end brands (e.g. Denza, Xpeng, Nio, Zeekr, Aito, Xiaomi) arrive on the shores of Europe, Audi’s home market may also be under threat.

The latest ICEV Audi Q3 points out the dilemma for Audi, which may have started to move away from the cheapification of is interiors but the highest specification Q3 tested below still seems not to deliver enough for a price of nearly GBP 60,000. The base model starts at GBP 38,300, for a small ICEV SUV, and as for all German brands the base model is always ill equipped! The larger Tesla Model Y BEV starts at GBP 42,000, the Xpeng G6 BEV at GBP 39,990. What happens when Xiaomi arrives in possibly 2027 with a YU7 priced close to the Tesla Model Y?

BMW managed to grow sales 4% y-o-y in its European home market (flat in the UK in December), while seeing sales in the US fall 4.6% and in Asia 13.2% (in China 15.9%); 2.46 MM global sales. It is slowly but surely being forced out of Asia (still a third of its global sales) by the Chinese competitors, struggling in a US now going back to the ICEV future, and for now doing well in Europe. Becoming a smaller company, with sales predominantly in Europe and a struggling US. It existential challenge may start in 2027, as companies such as Xiaomi (and perhaps also Aito) start selling cars in Europe.

Mercedes sales in Europe were flat in Q4, but were down 18.96% in December in a UK which does not have the anti-Chinese EV tariffs; perhaps a harbinger of things to come. Its sales in North America (18% of global sales) were down 18%, and its sales in Asia (40% of global sales) down 21%; global car sales were 1.8 MM, down 9%. Mercedes has already entered its existential crisis, with overall global car sales falling 12% in Q4; even faster for the much more profitable high end models. Will it survive the entry of such makes as Xiaomi and Aito into the European market?

Porsche sales in North America (31% of global sales) were actually flat on a full year and Q4 basis, but its European sales excluding Germany (24%) fell 13%, and its German (10%) sales fell 16%; failing badly in its home market. In the UK, sales fell 34.45% y-o-y in December. In China (15%) sales fell 26% for the year and 28.4% in Q4, and in the “rest of the world” (20%) they fell only 1%. Porsche is doing best in the ICEV dominant North American and rest of world markets, while sales overall fell 10% for the year. Porsche is the car brand most affected by the Xiaomi SU7 and YU7, its European decline may very well accelerate fast when Xiaomi enters the European market. With only 279,449 global sales in 2025, Porsche is approaching a level that is fundamentally unsustainable; especially when it has to develop both ICEV and EV models. With no production facilities in the US, its increasing dependence upon that market will also become problematic.

Fiat Is A South American Car Company

In 2025, Fiat sold 533,726 cars (+3%) in Brazil and 74,004 in Argentina (+64%) for a total of 607,730 out of a total of 888,456. Of the other markets, Italy was flat at 143,789, Turkey down 25% at 71,251, Germany down 30% at 21,397, France down 37% at 20,287, Spain down 35% at 9,785, and the UK down 41% at 8,764. In December 2025, Fiat sold just 149 cars in the UK; down 83% y-o-y. Fiat is dying in Europe and Turkey, with 68% of its sales in the growing South American market which is served by the completely standalone South American unit. The production of passenger cars in Italy in 2025, which includes other brands such as Abarth, Alfa Romeo and Lancia, fell 24.5% y-o-y to only 213,706; less than in 1955. The death of Fiat in Europe will be the death of mass car manufacturing in Italy.

VW & Renault Last Europeans Standing?

The market leader VW and the third placed Renault are tending to hold their own, although their sales momentum decreased substantially in Q4 with number two Stellantis still losing market share. Also, BMW is still gaining share while Mercedes is faltering badly; reflecting a global phenomenon of BMW outperforming Mercedes. Renault is very much a Europe+MENA car company now, while VW, BMW and Mercedes are still global ones. Stellantis is really three separate car companies, Europe+MENA, North America, and South America that have less and less in common; with only South America flourishing. The Chinese brands are expanding across all global markets, apart from North America where they are locked out with a tariff wall, eating away at the sales of the global German, Japanese and South Korean manufacturers.

Africa

The Chinese Invasion Picks Up Speed

Ten Chinese brands are gaining market share within Africa, pushing out the European, Japanese and South Korean brands which they outclass with lower prices and better functionality. Also, nearly new Chinese cars from the Middle East are increasingly flowing into Africa.

Strongest in South Africa: October; November; December.

Overall Car Sales: 55,956 (+16%); 54,896 (+12.3%); 48,983 (+19.2%)

1. Toyota 13,559; 13,576; 12,933

2. Suzuki 6,890; 6,385; 4,961

3. VW (incl. Audi) 6,221; 6,044; 5,014

4. Chery 4,377, 5,149; 4,937

5. Hyundai-Kia 4,915; 4,879; 4,576

6. Ford 2,946; 3,095; 2,987

7. GWM 2,805; 2,534; 2,453

8. Isuzu 2,784; 2,124; 1,906

9. Renault n/a; 1,415; 1,304

10. Mahindra 1,551; 1,403; 1,234

11. Nissan n/a; n/a; 1,011

12. BMW (incl. Mini) n/a; n/a; 843

Note: Chery includes Jaecoo, Omoda and Jetour

An important thing to note is that BYD has only just started ramping up its presence in South Africa, SAIC-MG only re-entered South Africa at the start of 2025, and Geely only entered the market in November 2025. In August 2025, MG sold 453 vehicles in the country but only 387 in December. Competition is going to heat up a lot more for the Japanese, South Korean and German brands in 2026. A sign of the times, Chery is taking over a South African car plant from Nissan.

Then in North Africa; Egypt, Algeria, Morocco

Egypt overall cars sales: 12,585 (+69.4%); 12,800 (+54.7%); n/a

Nissan and Hyundai are the #1 and #2, but Chinese car brands are rapidly expanding. Chery and Geely have already opened CKD plants in the country, with both SAIC-MG and BAIC plants planned and a BYD plant rumoured.

Algeria overall car sales H1 2025: approx. 60,000 (-34.4%)

#1 Fiat, #2 Geely, #3 Opel; #4 Chery; #5 Dongfeng Sokon (owned by Seres)

Chery, Geely, and JAC are establishing CKD plants in Algeria. Stellantis is also increasing the production of its Fiat brand at its Algerian car plant, bad news for the Italian Fiat factories. Government localization policies charge a 30% tariff on any cars not produced in Algeria, but EVs will be exempt from this from the start of 2026; allowing BYD with its EV only lineup to escape the import tariffs.

In 2019, Renault dominated the Algerian market but has since fallen foul of the new government administration and has been unable to reopen its local CKD plant. It is actively now considering leaving the Algerian market.

Morocco overall car sales: 19,561 (+30.4%); 21,603 (+36.5%); 24,453 (+19.9%)

The market is dominated by European brands (Renault and its other brand Dacia, Hyundai, Peugeot and VW), but BYD is growing sales from a low base. Deepal, Chery, Leapmotor and Lynk & Co. have also entered the market. There is no safe place for the European manufacturers.

In East Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia; with Kenya becoming a hub for the Chinese vehicle makers. In West Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast.