Print this post.The Egyptian uprising is still very much undecided in terms of ultimate outcome
“The Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings are not, as some armchair pundits called the Tunisian one, Jasmine Revolutions. They are ones of bread, bullets, blood, democracy and dignity. State security forces have killed hundreds of people in both countries and wounded thousands. Many more have been arrested. But the fire of revolt sparked by Muhammad Bouzizi’s self-immolation in Tunis last December has now turned into a conflagration of popular upheaval across the Arab world largely led by workers, students, and the unemployed (men and women). Current protests in Egypt have reached a new crescendo. Other demonstrations in Yemen, Algeria and Jordan are far from turning the tables on their regimes but continue to exert pressure against the status quo. Large disaffected sections of an emaciated middle-class of professionals, public servants, and petit-bourgeois have also jumped on the revolutionary bandwagon….”(Hicham Safieddine, Reform or Revolution)
PATRICE GREANVILLE
AS ALL OF YOU CAN IMAGINE there’s been quite a bit of discussion among the editors as to the true meaning of the recent wave of convulsions—unprecedented by any standard—throughout the Arab world, but with their current epicenter in Tunisia and Egypt. Seasoned political analysts like Stephen Lendman, Rob Kall, Glen Ford, Danny Schechter, Margaret Kimberley, Bill Van Auken, and Bill Blum have produced compelling reports on the topic, and I strongly urge you to read them. Others, like the quoted Safieddine, have also filed invaluable insights into this world historical event, and posed the right questions. The consensus seems to be that the horrific sacrifice of the Egyptian and Arab masses may not deliver them fully, if at all, from the oppression they have long endured. Considering what has happened, and following the rule of never underestimating our enemies, I share their reservations about the outcome of this brave struggle.
But this is not to deny one iota that the precedent alone of this explosion will have enormous, long lasting implications for the region and beyond. (Among other things it has opened a rare window onto the actions of a courageous people to sheepish Americans, many of whom are increasingly mad at the status quo but keep fretting about the options. The window is all the more interesting because the powers that be, along with their meretricious media, are seen as endorsing the rebellion).
So far the class composition of the uprisings is diverse, and that of the leadership—if we can call it that at this point—is mixed. Obviously (and fortunately) there are radical elements in their ranks, and the unions—long discounted as effective players in this area of the world—have suddenly begun to show renewed vigor. But bourgeois participants are many, and fundamental islamists are also capable of influencing large numbers. If the masses follow either of the latter two ideological strands, the possibility of a true revolution is finished. Perhaps for generations. And that is even without factoring the impact of foreign intervention—open and stealthy by the usual suspects—and the braking effect of conservative army fficers and civilians.
My chief concern therefore is that while the forces pushing to topple Mubarak coalesce around their hatred for this imperial henchman, including perhaps some silent sections of the army, with his departure we may see that the anti-Mubarak front is (a) essentially leaderless or is still suffering from a very amorphous type of proto-leadership, (b) that it may lack a powerful, well organized revolutionary component (hence Washington’s “kind” posture toward it); (c) that after 30 years of tyranny, even mild reforms may seem to some wonderful and satisfactory to placate their anger, and (d) we still don’t know what hidden cards Washington and Israel may have for the region, including a military option.
Revolution an elusive objective
As things stand, the long-term odds seem to be on the side of a petty bourgeois-reformist/nationalist modernizing coalition coming to power, with a sprinkling of Islamic factions, including MB, a treacherous group with longstanding ties to the CIA, etc. Such government would inevitably fall under the control—direct or indirect—of Washington and Jerusalem. Or, equally possible, Egypt may witness the rise of a neo-Nasserite junta, with progressive junior nationalist officers in the army paving the way for further changes. The bottom line is that this is a complex process that will surely test to the limit the political maturity of the Egyptian people, and their alertness against the inevitable moves to co-opt, blunt or eviscerate their revolutionary thrust. In this, again, I remain pessimistic because the scoundrels facing them are past masters of theatrics, and their resources simply unlimited. If they don’t panic, they can well afford to wait out the most potent wave of popular assault and then deflate its virulence in carefully planned stages.
There will be learning to be done on all sides, and students of insurrectionary tactics and strategies will be paying close attention to the process to discern the limits and/or potential of spontaneous revolts aided by technology in the 21st C. My feeling has always been that without a hardened, well formulated revolutionary vanguard, spontaneism eventually dissolves and/or is outlasted and outmaneuvered by the continuists (we just saw that in France vs. Sarkozy) who then proceed to “pacify” or smash, as the case will permit, one by one, each rebellious component. From that perspective, although the bourgeois secular reformist faction is large at present, the Islamicist segment offers more in the sense of a disciplined front and cannot be discounted. Still, at the end of the day, whatever the immediate, short-term resolution to the impasse, this quake may be just the beginning. Who knows, maybe a truly revolutionary coalition emerges from the current chaos.
On verra bien !
Meanwhile, it’s clear the Arab world is finally —in electrifying fashion—standing up. As seen so often in the resiliency of the Palestinian people, their valor is legendary. Let us all salute the exemplary Egyptian and Tunisian people, along with their brothers and sisters in the Arab nation. May their struggles be crowned with authentic popular power and the prompt rectification of so many heinous injustices.
PATRICE GREANVILLE is editor in chief of The Greanville Post.
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The following related posts are highly recommended:
BILL BLUM ON EGYPT: A cautionary tale
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12484
STEPHEN LENDMAN on the Egyptian uprising
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12414
HICHAM SAFIEDDINE
Tomorrow’s Tunis and Egypt: Reform or Revolution?
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12386
MARGARET KIMBERLEY
Freedom Rider: Mubarak’s Fall is Good News
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12394
ROB KALL
Egypt’s Revolution May Not Produce Democracy
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12285
EGYPT SHAKES THE WORLD
VIDEOS
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12452
• Protest before Egyptian Embassy, London
• Roots of the Egyptian Revolutionary Moment
• The masses Defiant
• All eyes now on the Egyptian army
THE SUDDEN EXPLOSION OF POPULAR IRE being seen in Egypt and other countries of the Middle East ensues from decades of brutal oppression and corruption by dictators and elites cynically supported by Israel and the United States. This video is courtesy of The Real News Network (TRNN). For continuous coverage of events in Egypt as they develop, watch history in the making on Al Jazeera television.
CHRIS HEDGES
What Corruption and Force Have Wrought in Egypt
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12379
DANNY SCHECHTER
The hidden roots of Egypt’s despair
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12357
PEPE ESCOBAR: CRISIS IN EGYPT
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12349
GWYNNE DYER
Has revolution come to Egypt?
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12308
PHILIP WEISS
The Egyptian revolution threatens an American-imposed order of Arabophobia and false choices
3 comments
Clearly, US and Israel will want an easily controlled dictator. According to a report I discovered by the CFR, they admitted as much (for the US). Also, ‘free trade’ was mentioned and we all well know what that means. Egypts saving grace may well be that there seems to be a small measure of diversity and if properly accessed this may well result in a carefully constructed democracy. I hope that the extreme negative groups (internal and external) will not undermine these efforts and that forced choices will not be accepted as an alternative to real reform. Opportunities for real reform are a rarity and to compromise during such a time is foolhardy. Let them seize the day!
Tesha Miller 05 de febrero de 2011 19:46
As expected the revolution in Egypt has been co-opted. There is no doubt that the US told Mubarak to sit tight while the passion of the people would wear itself out. A typical Obama strategy of betrayal.
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I hope I don’t sound pompous, but I expected it. In this very “editorial” a few days back introducing the latest bulletin, I said:
“My feeling has always been that without a hardened, well formulated revolutionary vanguard, spontaneism eventually dissolves and/or is outlasted and outmaneuvered by the continuists (we just saw that in France vs. Sarkozy) who then proceed to “pacify” or smash, as the case will permit, one by one, each rebellious component…”
https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12558
The lessons from history, especially the defeat of the communards in 1871, and the brutal Thiers revenge on the rebels, should not be forgotten. In fact, during the Paris commune heady days the tactic of fighting for your own area with no central organization made it easy for the army to group its forces and take the barricades one by one.
Again, you can see that spontaneous revolts, or badly coordinated ones, no matter how huge, tend to have fragile foundations when lacking an overall, well-disciplined and politically savvy mechanism for the inevitable political and military confrontations.
Bottom line: The enemy is also learning as we go, and their immense resources allow them the option of waiting us out. This tactic is now, barring a full-fledged armed attack on their centers of power and economic control, their preferred first response. It’s almost like an exercise in Aikido, whereby, without conceding ground, you deflect and neutralize the force of an attack by subtly highjacking its own momentum.
All of this is pretty depressing albeit hard from expected, but the wild card here is that the public is awakened and SAW its own muscle. Plus, in a subterranean way, so did many younger officers in the army. If no stealthy purges are conducted (as Pinochet did, who massacred hundreds of officers in a pre-emptive move) they could be the source of another quake. The events we have just witnessed mean historically that now the Mubarak regime will be acting on an open wound: ten times more likely to get provoked than even a couple of years ago. As is often the case with revolutionary processes, the tectonic plates may still be accommodating themselves and we may see an ebb and flow for an indeterminate period ahead.
Patrice Greanville
The Greanville Post