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Ben Norton
GEOPOLITICAL ECONOMY REPORT
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2 comments
Trumpty Dumpty is picking a fight, a big trade war with China.
His >100% tariffs on Chinese imports will be paid by the US consumer, accelerating US inflation and worsening costs of living, which will trigger mortgage, loan and credit card defaults. What happened the last time there were major mortgage defaults in the USA?
Does the USA have any affordable substitutes for Chinese imports, which represent more than 70% of all goods sold in Amazon, Walmart, Costco etc? No. Falling sales from those companies will force them to contract, causing more US job losses and more bankruptcies, more Americans evicted from their homes.
Chinese >100% tariffs on US imports will make US goods essentially unaffordable to the Chinese consumer. Does China have any affordable substitutes for US imports? Absolutely, whether from Chinese domestic production or imports from the other 96% of people in the world, as Ben Norton pointed out.
USA exports nothing of critical importance to China.
China exports rare earths, pharmaceuticals, cellphones and computers to the USA without which the USA cannot function as a modern society.
Newsflash: in yet another backdown, the USA just exempted Chinese cellphones and computers from import tariffs.
This does not even begin to look at other unintended consequences by Trump such as the initial stockmarket drop, followed by bond note sell-offs by the Japanese and turmoil among Hedge funds.
Trumpty Dumpty boasted that all countries in the world will crawl on their knees to “kiss his ass”. In reality, China will kick his ass, then proceed to royally faaaark him in the ass. Sorry for the vulgarity and crudeness, simply adopting language that the orange moron can understand.
Can China find other markets for its exports that were previously directed to the USA? Absolutely. In fact it has long been planning for this, gradually reducing it’s exports to the USA, which now represent just around 12% of total Chinese exports and under 3% of total GDP. If China lost it’s ENTIRE exports to the USA immediately, 97%+ of China’s GDP will remain intact. Furthermore China can INSTANTLY redirect those former US exports to the Chinese domestic market of 1.4 billion people by simply electronically pouring Yuan into the digital wallets of the poorest Chinese people*, a fiscal stimulus so they can buy Chinese consumer goods which will further raise the standard of living of poor Chinese, further raising the popularity of the CPC.
Of course, with high quality, high tech, low cost goods in great demand around the world, China can easily find customers among the remaining 96% of the world’s population, probably discounted in the first instance.
If they want to “dump” cheap, high quality electric cars into Airstrip three, I am a keen customer!!
Can the USA find other markets for its exports if it loses the Chinese Market of 1.4 billion people? The so-called 90 day pause on tariffs did not remove the baseline new 10% universal tariffs on all foreign imports. Non-braindead countries will impose their own 10% tariffs on imports from the USA, and even without that, they will sensibly diversify their import options, because the USA is behaving in such an unpredictable, unreliable, bizarre and malicious manner. Only profoundly moronic regimes, the satrapies of the USA like collapsing Ukraine and Israel and Argentina, will be stupid or captured enough to depend on US imports.
Trumpty Dumpty is isolating the USA, a deindustrialised State, from global trade.
Any way you look at it, the USA is shooting itself in the foot thanks to the orange moron.
*EVERYONE in China these days transacts using digital wallets in their smartphones, even the poorest in the remotest areas.