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Julian Macfarlane NEWS FORENSICS
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Trump embodies the definition of “reactionary”.
By now, almost everybody has seen Trump’s statements on Venezuela – that he was going to run the country, with the threat of a major invasion – “boots on the ground”, if the new President, who was Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, did not do what she was told. He also said that the rest of Latin America should heed the example of Venezuela – by that he means those countries with resources the US could use .
Brazil, are you listening?
Also interesting was his idea that American corporations would pay for reinventing Venezuela as an American colony, something like what the East India Company did when the British took over.
Not mentioned in the press so far is Venezuela’s status as a “partner member” of BRICS. While not a full member of BRICS like Brazil, it is part of the BRICS family. This attack on Venezuela is also an attack on BRICS.
In Latin America, Bolivia, Cuba, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Honduras, and Nicaragua are all either partner members or have expressed interest in joining. [Unfortunately due to the rollback of the “red tide”, Chile, Honduras, Peru and Bolivia, not to mention Ecuador and Argentina, are now in the pocket of Washington.—Ed]
Kidnapping Maduro is a shot across the bows. As in “fuck international order”; “fuck law”; fuck everybody”.
But, of course, BRICS is not a military alliance. This lawless, if not psychopathic behavior shows Latin America the need for greater economic unity against the Gringos.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to economics – to money – which means control of resources, financial instruments, and human capital.
What was Trump’s attack about? Oil, you say? Even if he were successful in taking control of Venezuela, it would take four or five years to turn a profit from Venezuelan heavy crude. It’s about more than just that— it’s about domination. Sort of political BDSM.
Larry Johnson has written a piece on why the legal case against Maduro and his wife (the family dog was not included in the indictment) is totally specious and violates all legal norms, both American and international, not to mention common sense.
Yeah, obviously….
But the legal details are not the point.
Which brings us back to Caracas.
There are many questions about the attack on Caracas, which also give us clues as to the state of the Union.
It is well-known that the CIA has been nurturing operatives in Venezuela for years, spending millions of US taxpayer money to bribe and blackmail, sometimes with impressive results such as the hacking of the national electoral system that almost got the Gonzalez / Machado ticket elected. The CIA is clever, exploiting every opportunity .
In the case of the Venezuelan attack, the foreign punditocracy thinks simplistically about the reasons for its success —assuming collusion between members of the Venezuelan military to account for the ease with which the Delta Forces were able to penetrate Venezuelan air defenses with only one aircraft damaged.
Martyanov, for example:
Some news (from there)–the chief of Maduro’s security detail as well as a number of others have been bought by the US. In fact, there was a Russian military group which rushed to Maduro residence but it was held off by the fire of … yep, Maduro security people. By the time Russians dealt with those traitors, Maduro was already gone. The chief of security detail has been caught and was executed already.
I have seen no credible evidence of this story. What is known, however, is that the CIA had a source in the Venezuelan government who could follow Maduro’s movements as he changed residences. Keep in mind that there would be a large number of people privy to such details. The Delta Team knew just where to go and it supporting military knew where to strike to divert attention!
January 2, was a Friday– not an official holiday—but many, if not most Venezuelans informally wanted to extend their New Year’s break through the weekend of January 3–4, which contributed to the success of Operation Absolute Resolve—the strike took place during a time when half of them would be recovering from hangovers.
After all, it is the Christmas season. Peace and goodwill to all.
CIA and Pentagon planners cover all the bases.
Just previously, the US had carried out a strike on a Venezuelan “port” — a wharf really, with only a few boats there. It may have been intended to lull the Venezuela air defense teams into complacency, to think that blips on their radar screens were more of the same. “Bravado” attacks signifying nothing.
No one really knows.
But remember the Yom Kippur War. The story is taught in every military college. Always time your attacks during a holiday.
So when this operation went down Caracas’ air defenses were targeted with massive missile strikes. It took place between 1 and 3 AM, when most people were sleeping.
The helicopters came in low and slow and would normally have been targets for anyone out with a MANPAD or heavy machine gun, but how many people carrying those weapons would be stationed at that time on a holiday? Especially with random suppressive fire, rockets and machine guns from above as shown by some videos?
I personally doubt widespread collusion or corruption in the military. I am not saying that Martyanov is wrong – but he does not provide a source, and as we all know he is occasionally prone to exaggeration.
He warns that US control of Venezuela’s oil could affect future prices, especially given that the South American nation holds about 19% of the world’s oil reserves.
The outcome depends on the nature and duration of the Venezuela crisis, as well as the Venezuelan people’s reaction to the US-led war against their country, according to the expert.
He emphasized that energy prices will suffer significantly in the short term, but more serious consequences will depend on how quickly the crisis comes to a close. (Sputnik “expert”)
The second is a hardening of Chavismo opposition to the US and resistance to a takeover.
This puts Venezuela in war mode and there will be little tolerance for traitors. At least 40 Venezuelans were killed in US strikes, likely more. The test is no longer political partisanship but “do you love your country?”.
Gonzales and Machado are now seen as working for the enemy. [Which they are, by definition, and always have been.—Ed]
And Chavista Venezuela has allies: China and Russia do not want to lose their investments —so they will be beefing up support.
Should the US try to “put boots on the ground”, they will suffer casualties. That would be a lot different from the January 3rd stab you in the back sneak attack
SEAD and DEAD ? A real invasion assumes a military with tanks and missiles, and defined “battlegrounds” but the Venezuelan military has been preparing for an “asymmetric” war. Think: topography.
Another Vietnam.
The Trump “team” is delusional. It jumps from one boondoggle to another. Too much fentanyl I guess.
They just needed something that would look like a win for a two week news cycle before something else could be used to distract the public. Iran maybe? Or Greenland?
An interesting twist might be if China “sanctions” vessels carrying military equipment to Taiwan — as it has a right to do since it legally owns the palce. . Then seizes container ships as the US has done in the Caribbean. This would actually be legal under international law.
Sunday night / Monday morning….
Yup. That’s me. Half asleep. You can’t see the wrinkles. In life everything is about perspective, lighting and angle. If you have to retouch things, you’re just not seeing what is there. Photo by Ichi. With help from Chappy.
As I work on Part 2 of the “Book”, I begin to realize what makes Putin and X different and why the “West” (the Atlantic facing part of the “East”), is the way they think. They have been shaped by challenge. For survival they became rhizomatic / quantum thinkers. as I defined the terms recently.
This think is the ability to hold multiple, often contradictory, thoughts or possibilities in the mind simultaneously without forcing an immediate binary choice (true/false or either/or). Q bits are creative possibilities.
“Western” leaders are box people. They live in boxes, think in boxes. They peek out and hate what they see, covet what they don’t have. The dream of bigger and better…boxes.
Xi and Putin create worlds.
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[su_note note_color=”#f1efef” radius=”0″]The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post, although, if we publish them, we obviously find them noteworthy and highly valuable. [/su_note]
Julian Macfarlane is a Tokyo-based media and strategic analyst. He edits News Forensics (Substack column). Julian is assisted in his writing by two highly proficient felines, Chappy and Ichi.
Julian Macfarlane
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