JULIAN’S DISPATCHES: Pissing against the wind

Trump’s speech differed not in “truthiness” but in the amount of time devoted to foreign policy. Biden went on and on about the need to confront and defeat the Russian hordes, bent on conquering first Ukraine, then Europe, then …Milwaukee?

 

But Trump focused more on domestic issues – since, with the Supreme Court decisions, he has to get his tariffs past Congress, which may be difficult after November. So he did not spend much time on foreign policy… Democracy is a bitch.

But [these are] some terrible people. They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” he claimed without providing additional information.

After [Operation] Midnight Hammer, they were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program — in particular, nuclear weapons,” Trump said. “Yet, they continue, starting it all over. We wiped it out and they want to start all over again. And are at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions. Donald Trump . SOTU 2026

Bad people in Iran. You would think they were Democrats. But both parties lag behind public opinion, with anti-Israel opinions on the rise, especially among the young.

There is also a spill-over effect from anti-Zionism– generating antisemitism as well –since 76% of American Jews believe that Israel’s existence is vital for the long-term future of the Jewish people. As Israel more and more defines itself as a genocidal racist state, all American Jews are painted with the same bloody brush, despite a significant minority opposing Zionism, including the Orthodox and Holocaust survivors.

There are just 7.5 million Jews in the US – but their influence on government policies is disproportionate to the population, and the public is gradually becoming weary of it.

As the US declines and living standards decline, Americans are searching for someone to blame. Not themselves, of course, who are really the ones responsible— but others who stand out.

 

In other words, the kind of unconditional love that Trump offers Israel is something he may regret later.

Right now, the talks between the US and Iran are going no place —but the US, as I have written, simply doesn’t have the resources to go to war. To guarantee any degree of success it would need to triple its assets in the Middle East and be prepared for a campaign longer than a month, even though that would exhaust its critical munitions stockpiles in as little as three to four weeks , with some high-demand weapons running out in less than one week.

On the other hand, Trump is talking as though the US were Almighty! Politics for him is showbiz and that’s the script.

So he will continue with the Talks using Witkoff and Kushner who are card-carrying Zionists, although not Israeli citizens, which looks good to the Zionist lobby. Eventually, people will lose interest, and then he can seek an off-ramp.

Moon of Alabama provides an excellent analysis:

Iran – U.S. Negotiators Block Progress With Unreasonable Demands

Today the third round of the current negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is taking place in Geneva. After three hours the talks were paused to allow the negotiators to communicate with their governments. They are supposed to continue later today.

Iran continues to offer reductions in its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei insists on tangible outcomes:

“Today’s discussions were very serious, and we hope that in the talks taking place tonight, we will see a continuation of the dialogue on the lifting of sanctions and nuclear issues—this time in a more operational manner, with practical proposals and executable initiatives,” Baghaei said.

Baghaei insisting on those is a sign that the conditions the U.S. delegation has offered were vague and lacking specifics.

Before today’s round started the Wall Street Journal published a list (archived) of ‘tough’ demands the U.S. is making to Iran. These are:

• dismantling its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan; • delivering all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S.
• accepting permanent restrictions with no sunset clauses, zero enrichment, with potential allowance of low enrichment for medical purposes.

In exchange for that the U.S. would offer … nothing tangible: The U.S. is offering only minimal sanctions relief to Iran as part of a deal.

The U.S. wants to see Iran comply with the terms for an extended period and, if judged to be sticking to the agreement, it could in time ask for more sanctions relief and other benefits, the officials said.

Why does the U.S. believe that Iran might be willing to give up all for nothing? If the demands the WSJ published are real the negotiations will go nowhere as these are in breach of several of Iran’s red lines.

The Trump administration will thus miss another potential off-ramp from its self-defeating threat of bombing Iran. In consequence the Zionist lobby will increase the pressure on President Trump to regime change the Islamic Republic. But the Trump administration has no public support for such an endeavor.

To make the ‘politics’ around a strike look better it is pushing Israel to fire the first salvo in a new war: As the administration mulls military action in Iran, officials argue it’d be best if Israel makes the first move. “There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” said one of the people familiar with discussions.

B. ends his piece with the really important point…

Iran has promised to respond to any strike, be it by the U.S. or Israel, with severe retaliation strikes against both. Israel will not attack Iran without U.S support or knowledge nor would the U.S strike without warning Israel to get ready for a response.

It is thus doubtful that the question of who did the first strike on Iran, Israel or the U.S., would change the public perception of a new conflict.

Let’s put it this way— even a marginally effective Israeli strike is not possible without involving US assets —for example, US tanker and ISR support. That automatically would make the US a co-belligerent unless it denied Israel help.

Israel has its own tankers – albeit 60 years old and usable. It also has various workarounds for other deficiencies. And it has its own ISR and EW systems – a mix of resources that it claims enabled it to achieve air supremacy in the 12 Day War— except that that is fiction — most objective analysts believe they never attempted to enter Iranian airspace.

That means the Israelis could mount attacks, rely on the US media to portray those attacks as successful, and hope the US would join in.

But the US cannot enter the conflict without exposing its bases and naval assets and suffering unacceptable, if not catastrophic, casualties.

[su_note note_color=”#fbf4ca” radius=”17″]Both sides would be hurt badly, but the Iranians would not be severely depleted, let alone defeated, whereas the US would be hurt in a fashion it has not experienced in the memory of many people still alive — only to then look around and discover itself in a state of acute logistical crisis after only a fortnight of high-intensity combat operations. William Schryver, X[/su_note]

You can expect an all-out attack on Israel to target not only military bases but infrastructure – specifically electricity and water, as well as port facilities, in addition to Israeli assets in Lebanon.

Far better for the US to let Israel go it alone — wait for the smoke to clear and then “negotiate” a truce — between Iran and Israel — with compromises as a s result of a now much weakened Israel. It would have to accept most, if not al lIranian demands, including ending the war on Hezbollah and Gaza.

What was left of Israel would need a lot of economic help, and it would be much more compliant.

Is Trump that smart?

Are the people around him?

Would he be getting accurate information? Emperors are always naked

 

Larry Johnson makes the point that intelligence services are hobbled by peer-pressure and group-think, what the organizational theorist Alvesson calls “the Stupidity Paradox” which I explain in detail in articles for coffee buyers and elsewhere.

I think LJ wants to privatize the CIA. Would that help? LOL. Probably not.

In any case, the CIA is preparing PowerPoint presentations right now. The President likes pictures. He does’’t like reading.

“A good PowerPoint show turned a failed project into a success in the eyes of top management. As often is the case, senior executives had no knowledge or no real interest in what was really going on.”
― Mats Alvesson, The Stupidity Paradox: The Power and Pitfalls of Functional Stupidity at Work

That’s the issue with the Trump administration. No knowledge and no real interest in what is really going on.

In other words, the “talks” are going to go nowhere fast. That’s a problem for the Navy who needs toilets and drinking water. But it is fine for the Iranians who get extra time to integrate their air defense systems with Chinese and Russian systems and further develop their hypersonic missiles for maximum lethality.

ABOVE: The IRGC practiced missile strikes on a replica of the US Al Dhafra base in the UAE, which is home to 5,000 American troops. The missiles are equipped with new warheads that can penetrate bunkers.

The Iranians want to win without war.

But they have already tried a “soft” strategy in the 12 Day War. This time— no gloves, no rules, knowing Trump really cannot afford a ME War as the Midterms approach.

Some people think, as B suggests, that Netanyahu and his merry band of murderers may ignore military advice and strike at Iran, hoping for a retaliation that would draw the US into the war. As I said, that strike would have to be without American help, otherwise it would be too transparently manipulating US options

That idea could backfire, with much of Israel destroyed before the US could make a decision. By then, it would have few options other than to somehow get rid of Trump.

From my article on Stupidity reprinted variously.

This is a time of paradoxes. And stupidity. It is the age of the Stupidity Paradox.

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