
Julian Macfarlane

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Larry, the Judge, and Lavrov In Moscow

Larry Johnson and the Judge met recently with Lavrov in Moscow. No, not at that club. Nevertheless, his post was interesting.
Here’s my annotated version.
Russia believes that Donald Trump offers a genuine opportunity to restore normal relations between Moscow and Washington. However, Russia is proceeding slowly and cautiously. They’ve adopted the Ronald Reagan line, “trust but verify.” Russia’s position on a peace deal with Ukraine is clear and unambiguous.
What exactly are “normal relations”?
If you read my recent post, you will notice that the relationship between Russia and the US has never been one characterized by equality, respect, non-interference, and most of all –honesty—going all the way back to Reagan [or way before]. So, “normal” just means full diplomatic relations. The US has a very, very long way to go to earn real trust.
As for “trust but verify”, the Russians must begin with the assumption they can not trust. Nor can they often “verify”, whatever that means.
It is up to the Americans to prove they are trustworthy. Their word is worth nothing.
Yes, Russia articulated minimal conditions for a ceasefire and negotiations last year when Biden was still running things. They were clear and unambiguous, which is why Putin knew there was never any hope of them being considered seriously.
In June 2024, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would only end its war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow and abandoned its bid to join NATO. He outlined conditions for a ceasefire and negotiations, requiring Ukraine to hand over the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, including the parts Russia does not control. According to Tass, Putin said that if Ukraine initiates a “real withdrawal of troops” and formally renounces its intention to join NATO, Russia will cease fire and begin negotiations.
When Putin offered his conditions for a ceasefire back in the summer of last year, he knew they had zero chance of being accepted. They were just a reasonable and realistic counter to Zelensky’s “peace plan” which had Russia withdrawing from all of pre-2014 Ukraine, Ukraine joining NATO, reparations and other impossibilities.
As I said, Putin’s conditions were unambiguous. But the US needs ambiguity to create cover for reneging later.
In any case, the Kiev regime called the conditions “absurd”.
Then again, the offer was not made for the Ukrainians really – but to show the rest of the world that Russia was a rational actor, not bent on conquest and could be trusted—the “Good Guy” which makes the US?….. I am sure that Putin knew how Zelensky would react and Biden.
Ukraine had to abandon plans to join NATO, become a neutral country, and never seek to develop nuclear weapons.
The rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine had to be respected.
Sanctions against Russia had to be lifted.
Kyiv must recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, and these “new territorial realities” should be recognized globally.
Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, as agreed upon at the March 2022 peace talks in Istanbul.
Putin stated that his proposal aimed to end the conflict, not simply freeze it. He also said that if these demands were rejected, Moscow’s future demands would change. What does that mean? Tougher demands.
Blanket rejection meant that the SMO would go on. Future demands would be determined by facts on the ground.
At this point, the probability of a ceasefire is close to zero.
In any case, the General Staff [Stavka] and the Russian public do not want compromise. With NATO building a huge base in Romania on the Black Sea and sabre rattling in Europe, not to mention terror attacks against civilians in Ukraine and Russia, Russia needs to protect itself—which means taking control of Odessa, and all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper, as well as Kiev.
If the US were Russia what would it do?
The future of Ukraine cannot be decided by Trump or European leaders or even Russia but by the people of the region, oblast by oblast, in carefully monitored referenda. But such referenda require tribunals for the NeoNazis and banning their pernicious ideology.
At this moment, Russia is advancing on at least 8 fronts and the Ukrainians are getting slaughtered.
Lavrov is not telling Larry and the Judge anything new—just the standard Russian diplomatic line—which has been repeated many times — but there is a subtext.
Which is?
As I said, the Russians will not trust the Americans until proven they can be trusted. But the more erratic Trump’s rhetoric, the harder it is to take him seriously.
Therefore the SMO will continue until resolution is achieved by force of arms.
Read Larry’s excellent article HERE. (And take a look at the previous two).![]()
Nyet Means Nyet
I had an amazing day. I had a two-hour meeting with Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, and the Foreign Ministry’s Press Secretary, Maria Zakharova. Mr. Lavrov is a gentleman and the walking definition of a master diplomat. I was accompanied to the meeting by Judge Napolitano and Mario Nawfal. The Russian Foreign Ministry recorded the session and I will provide the link once it becomes available.
Lavrov presents himself with quiet humility and a sharp sense of humor. I have dealt with prima donnas before and can vouch that Mr. Lavrov is not one. He looks you straight in the eye and engages in a personal way that is not contrived or artificial.
He spent some time reviewing the history of events with Ukraine, but did not review events from the 13th Century like Vladimir Putin did with Tucker Carlson. He was not trying to score debating points. Rather, he provided a factual account of external events that have shaped the conflict with Ukraine. You may question my use of the term, “factual,” but, if you read Scott Horton’s book, Provoked, Lavrov’s account matches up with Scott’s extensively documented history of the last 35 years.
Russia believes that Donald Trump offers a genuine opportunity to restore normal relations between Moscow and Washington. However, Russia is proceeding slowly and cautiously. They’ve adopted the Ronald Reagan line, “trust but verify.” Russia’s position on a peace deal with Ukraine is clear and unambiguous.
In June 2024, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would only end its war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of the four regions claimed by Moscow and abandoned its bid to join NATO. He outlined conditions for a ceasefire and negotiations, requiring Ukraine to hand over the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, including the parts Russia does not control. According to Tass, Putin said that if Ukraine initiates a “real withdrawal of troops” and formally renounces its intention to join NATO, Russia will cease fire and begin negotiations.
Further conditions included:
- Ukraine had to abandon plans to join NATO, become a neutral country, and never seek to develop nuclear weapons.
- The rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine had to be respected.
- Sanctions against Russia had to be lifted.
- Kyiv must recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, and these “new territorial realities” should be recognized globally.
- Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, as agreed upon at the March 2022 peace talks in Istanbul5.
Putin stated that his proposal aimed to end the conflict, not simply freeze it. He also said that if these demands were rejected, Moscow’s future demands would change. What does that mean? Tougher demands.
I was able to discuss today’s events with Nima, Judge Napolitano and Danny Davis:
MESSAGE FROM LARRY JOHNSON:
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A closing word from Julian:
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