Can China Resist the Temptation of Empire?

Glenn Diesen

Glenn Diesen

Jun 21, 2026

Einar Tangen is a Senior Fellow at Teihe Institute and a Senior Fellow at CIGI. Tangen discusses the temptation of empire that has become a curse for the US. Can China resist the temptation of empire?

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SUMMARY

This discussion begins with the introduction of Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute in Beijing and the Center for International Governance Innovation, who is invited to elaborate on his articles, especially regarding "China Chinanomics 3.0". The focus is on understanding China’s economic reforms not as isolated policies but as parts of a single strategic vision amidst global tensions and shifting power dynamics.

[01:10] Einar outlines the challenge faced by dominant powers, noting historical fears of colonial dominance, referencing past colonial practices of exploitation, artificial divisions, and coercion. He emphasizes that China’s vision diverges significantly from traditional colonialism, rejecting motifs of exploitation in favor of alternative development models.

[02:20] Einar shifts to a historical analysis of the United States’ evolving political-economic doctrines, spotlighting four key foundational essays or memos shaping its direction:

• The Lewis Powell Memo stressed oligarchic control but was subverted when industrial families delegated control to professionals prioritizing short-term shareholder value at the expense of community and long-term stability.
• This transition resulted in the hollowing out of American industry, detached leadership indifferent to the communities their companies historically served.
• The Wolfowitz Doctrine promoted unilateral action and ideological imposition, which evolved into aggressive regional dominance strategies (Perle’s "Clean Break").
• The 2021 Colby Memo advocates for hemispheric (Western Hemisphere) dominance, controlling critical energy flows and trade choke points like the Straits of Malacca to contain China economically and strategically.
• These doctrines underline US strategic approaches post-Cold War and ongoing geopolitical competition with China.

[09:54] Einar contrasts the US's focus on nostalgic restoration ("Make America Great Again") with China's forward-looking economic development, tracing China’s ascent from poverty to the world’s second-largest economy (or first by purchasing power parity). He highlights China’s:

• Initial lack of hard currency, necessitating Build-Own-Transfer (BOT) infrastructure investment models to attract capital while building essential transport and utility systems.
• A massive labor dividend enabling large-scale, low-margin manufacturing (example: vitamin C production covering 98% of global output by three producers).
• Transition towards high-value output sectors, including 5G, 6G technology, electric vehicles, and batteries, aiming for higher margins and driving a consumer-led economy improving disposable incomes.

[14:45] Statistical comparison of the middle class demographics demonstrates diverging social outcomes:

• This decline in America’s middle class signals social and economic challenges undermining democratic and societal stability.
• The middle class traditionally acts as a "bulwark of democracy" by balancing individual and collective interests.

[15:57] Einar articulates ideological differences:

• US ideology promotes liberal democratic capitalism as a universal model, often tied to force and financial hegemony, applying political, military, and economic tools to impose this system globally.
• China’s model centers on economic growth inclusive of global partners, aiming to "grow the pie" so all participants benefit from development, not merely redistribute existing wealth.

[18:11] The ideas of Wang Huning, an influential Chinese political theorist, are examined:

• Unlike typical Chinese officials who rise through strict bureaucratic ranks, Wang is a scholar turned policymaker advising successive Chinese leaders.
• His philosophy advocates for “development without dependence”, stressing national resilience and avoiding fragmentation seen in polarized societies like the US.
• Wang critiques Western “magic of markets” ideology and promotes a society where improving quality of life—not just increasing wealth—is vital.
• He envisions a society with enough essentials and leisure for all, not just extreme wealth for a few.

[23:38] Einar discusses firsthand observations of Chinese social realities that challenge Western stereotypes:

• High public security and social trust, such as unattended backpacks or children’s laptops left in classrooms.
• The government’s legitimacy hinges on providing security, opportunity, and fairness.

[25:20] China’s gradual policy rollout approach is described:

• The stepwise approach builds consensus and understanding before introducing subsequent reforms.

[26:24] On China’s current economic strategy:

• Emphasis on retaining manufacturing competitiveness by leveraging low electricity costs (15%-25% of production costs) and digital automation.
• China installs more than half the world’s robots annually, improving factory and logistics automation from order to after-sales service.
• Emerging technologies are shared internationally through joint ventures, contrasting with Western proprietary restrictions, thereby strengthening China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partnerships.
• Since 2015, China has invested approximately $1.4 trillion in infrastructure abroad(ports, bridges), aiming now to “color in” economic development zones around these infrastructural nodes to stimulate local employment and economic growth.

[30:48] Einar summarizes the fundamental contrast between the two global power strategies:

• The US: Nostalgic, exclusive, politically entrenched in an oligarchic system.
• China: Forward-looking, inclusive, focused on economic expansion and mutual development.

He underscores the unlikely near-term convergence between these approaches but stresses economic cooperation and cultural exchange as possible bridges to reduce tension.

[32:49] He points out the human element of diplomacy, citing examples from the World Cup and international travel where interpersonal interactions reveal the commonality and decency of people, countering government-fueled distrust and exclusionary tendencies.

[33:53] Quantitative data highlight US consumption dependence:

• Einar argues the US cannot simply repatriate all manufacturing without causing harm to consumer purchasing power.
• He posits that economics, rather than politics, may offer a path forward.

[33:50] In a reflective exchange, Einar and the interviewer discuss the insights of Karl Polanyi, who warned post-Industrial Revolution against the danger of markets dominating society rather than serving it, noting this as a root cause of extremist political reactions.

• Polanyi’s theory describes the shift from society supporting the economy to economies overtaking societies, leading to social disintegration and political upheaval.
• The neoliberal push for market primacy, especially in the US, has led to industrial decline and hollowed communities, echoing 19th-20th century warnings.

[36:34] A deeper question arises on whether China will succumb to empire-building temptations, paralleling historical US and British imperial trajectories focusing on dominance via:

• The concern: As China gains power, will its intentions shift toward imperial control, conflict, and governance failures similar to previous empires during hegemonic consolidation?

[40:19] Einar candidly addresses China’s historical awareness and structural safeguards that may mitigate imperial tendencies:

• China’s leadership studies history intensively, learning from past empires’ mistakes.
• Chinese officials remain philosophically grounded, pragmatic, and less ideologically assertive compared to the US.
• The non-proselytizing stance on sovereignty and tailored development paths reflect a fundamental reluctance to impose models or resort to militarism for control.
• The Chinese bureaucratic system produces leaders who have climbed rigorous ranks based on performance and service, contrasting with more populist, less-prepared US political paths.
• While dangers exist in middle-tier hawkish sentiment, top leadership reportedly favors stability and peaceful progress, seeking to avoid unnecessary conflict.

[48:46] Einar critiques American political leadership preparedness by comparison:

• Many US leaders rise through populist or non-managerial paths, sometimes lacking governance experience.
• Chinese leaders, shaped by a meritocratic, bureaucratic filter, have deep familiarity with policy and governance challenges.

[51:25] Einar warns against arrogance and superiority, suggesting that true strength relies on reasoned argument and confidence, not boastfulness — a principle observed in Chinese leadership demeanor.

[53:06] Looking to the future, Einar highlights the digital revolution as transformative, comparable to the Industrial Revolution in societal impact:

• Challenges include workforce retraining and adaptation to new employment models(e.g., reduced workweeks, continuous economy shifts).
• Automation will reduce the need for traditional labor (e.g., agriculture), necessitating effective government-led workforce re-education and job matching.
• China appears forward-thinking in managing these transitions, reforming academic institutions and training to meet future demands.

[56:31] Governments’ role broadens beyond basic social safety nets to ensuring citizens find fulfilling, economically productive roles compatible with personal interests and societal needs, which is critical for societal stability and progress.

[57:29] Einar concludes that countries able to adapt to technological and economic changes while balancing social fairness will be best positioned for success. The Chinese system, according to him, shows promise in this regard, with caveats about vigilance against complacency or internal hawkish pressures.

Key Insights and Conclusions

• China’s economic reforms represent a cohesive strategic vision distinct from Western models influenced by colonial legacies.
• The US approach is increasingly nostalgic, oligarchic, and short-term, fueling social fragmentation and industrial decline.
• China pursues inclusive growth, technology advancement, and shared development via the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasizing sovereignty and local adaptation.
• Wang Huning’s ideas embody a unique Chinese modernity, focused on resilience, social cohesion, and equitable improvement in quality of life.
• China’s governance system, with rigorous bureaucratic vetting of leaders, contrasts sharply with US political structures, potentially enhancing stability and competence.
• There is a risk of imperial temptation for China, but historical consciousness, ideology, and governance structures may reduce this likelihood.
• The future global dynamic hinges largely on economic cooperation and cultural understanding rather than political convergence.
• Technological shifts require new economic models and social policies to accommodate automation and workforce transformation.
• Governments must facilitate not only economic security but also meaningful participation in the economy and society for their citizens.

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