GLOBAL NEOLIBERALISM

The neo-Gramscian Amsterdam School argues that there are class fractions within any bourgeois ruling class, representing differing interest groups within the class. These can both compete with each other while at the same time coming together in class solidarity to defeat external threats. What we have being seeing over the past decade in an intra-ruling class struggle between two camps. In their book Trump and the Remaking of American Grand Strategy van Apeldoorn et. al. argue that Trump represents an economic nationalist class fraction that is in conflict with the previously dominant-for-many-decades open-door globalist class fraction.

The American Grand Strategy since WW2 has been Open Door Globalism, to force open foreign markets and economies to the profiteering and extractive activities of the US oligarchy. The dominant ruling class fraction included internationally oriented corporations, oil companies and financial institutions, with the period from 1945 until the 1960s benefiting from the need to rebuild the destroyed economies of Europe and Japan, and the inability of those nations to compete with the US due to that destruction. As those economies fully recovered, and the costs of the Vietnam War escalated, the US current account balance went into structural deficit through the 1960s. The move of the US to a net oil importer in 1970 only exacerbated the issue. Faced with a dwindling gold reserve, instead of deflating the economy Nixon removed the gold convertibility of the US$ and implemented a 10% import tax in 1971. By 1973, the world had moved to floating exchange rates and the dollar fell by over a third in value during that decade. With the recycling of US$’s by the OPEC countries and the US$ becoming the de facto reserve currency, the US became able to run current account deficits with impunity.

The collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the opening up of China and the liberalisation of India provided an absolute cornucopia for US capital through the 1990s and 2000s, while the US productive forces were gutted through financialization and offshoring. The US$ reserve currency status allowed the US to run large current account deficits while funding expensive foreign wars with debt issuance; throughout the first two and a half decades of this century. With increasing indebtedness, the primary income (net flow of profits, dividends, interest and wages) part of the current account balance eventually became negative. This was even with the return of the US to the position of a net oil exporter with the successful implementation of fracking technology from the early 2010s. The massive growth in domestic oil and gas production added significantly to the segment of the US oligarchy involved in domestic resource extraction.

The hollowing out of the US economy through offshoring and imports was negatively affecting the wealth and income of other domestically-oriented sectors such as property development, local finance and insurance institutions, retailers, domestic manufacturers etc. These sectors, together with the domestic oil sector formed the oligarch core of Trump’s coalition. They stood to benefit much more from an economic nationalism that would boost demand within the domestic economy and protect them from foreign competition. The Obama two terms were the last gasp of Open Door Globalism as it became more and more apparent that China was not going to be integrated into a US-led liberal world order. Not only that, but Chinese foreign policy was becoming more assertive and it was threatening to close the value-added and technology gaps between it and the US. It was starting to become a business competitor rather than just a provider of cheap labour and a massive consumer market for US corporations.

In the first Trump administration, from 2016 to 2020, the economic nationalist forces and globalist forces were in open competition with each other for the domination of the oligarchy. This played out through the liberal media, and a courtier class that had spent decades being honed as liberal globalist, backed by the liberal globalist oligarchs (e.g. Soros). Every avenue possible was utilized by the globalists to obstruct the Trump administration and delegitimize him, including even extensive attempts to brand him as an operative of a foreign power (Russia, Russia, Russia). This also included multiple attempts to impeach him, with actual impeachment hearings in 2019. Trump lost the 2020 elections, but events were moving toward his coalition’s position and the Biden administration did not change the position with respect to China. It did trigger the Ukraine proxy war with Russia that Trump had delayed for the four years of his first term.

With the colossal spending on the corporate and financial sector bailout covered up by the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government and foreign debt continued to balloon. All the while, China gained more strength and its corporations more and more developed their own domestic and international brands that challenged the profitable positions of US brands. This was underlined by the recovery of Huawei from the sanctions and US corporate collusion that were designed to destroy it. In the Chinese market, US and Western corporations lost market share in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles to coffee shops and fast food. Russia also did not collapse as expected and started to take an increasingly dominant role in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. This caused the economic nationalist class fraction to grow, and the resultant changing balance of power was reflected in Trump’s ability to survive one judicial and state attack after another; including a second impeachment hearing with respect to the January 6th 2021 events. The globalist wing was also stymied by the ongoing cognitive decline of its chosen president, Biden.

As Trump entered the running for the Republican presidential candidate in 2023 the politically-driven indictments designed to cripple Trump financially and politically, or even put him in jail, flew:

• March 30th Falsifying Business Records (NY Supreme Court)

  • Related to hush money payoff to an affair partner

  • Found guilty on all 34 counts on May 30th 2024, sentencing stretched out until after the election. After his election, Trump received an unconditional discharge of his sentence.

• June 8th Mishandling of National Security Documents (Southern District of Florida)

  • Charged for something that nearly all other presidents had done. On July 15, 2024, case dismissed, as Jack Smith’s appointment as special counsel ruled unconstitutional.

• August 1st Attempt to Overturn 2020 Presidential Elections (Washington D.C.)

  • Dismissed without prejudice.

• August 14th Racketeering to Overturn 2020 Presidential Elections (Fulton County)

  • The prosecutor dismissed due to misconduct with her boyfriend who she employed within the prosecutor’s office. Once Trump became a sitting president it became a constitutional issue of whether a state level prosecutor can prosecute a sitting president.

No matter how hard the liberal globalist media tried to brand Trump as a criminal etc., he gained the Republican nomination. He won the presidency against a lacklustre Democratic candidate who was burdened with her ongoing support for the Zionist genocide in Gaza. It does seem that Trump is now giving payback to the attorneys who went after him.

What was very evident after Trump’s inauguration is that the oligarch controlled media had been told to tone it down with respect to attacks upon Trump. The frenzied lunacy of his first term was no longer evident. As we get into the ninth month of his presidency we can see that the economic nationalist forces have gained with respect to the globalists and the courtier class and even some of the liberal globalist oligarchs are in the cross hairs. There has already been a significant cull of liberal globalists at the senior levels of state institutions, together with mass layoffs in some institutions. The takeover of Paramount by Larry Ellison’s son has also moved a large media group under the control of an ally, including the CBS broadcast network. Elon Musk had already previously taken over Twitter. With rumours that Ellison’s son may also bid for Warner Brothers, which includes CNN. Ellison and a number of other US oligarchs are also in the process of gaining control of a US-only version of TikTok. Other media outfits have also settled lawsuits from Trump, and the heads of both Meta and Alphabet have aligned with him while publicly accepting that they colluded with the state apparatus during the Biden administration.

The murder of the right-wing commentator Charlie Kirk, still shrouded in much disinformation and misdirection, has been used by Trump to launch a war against the “ANTIFA” (anti-fascist) loose coalition and “radical leftists”. Included in this list are George Soros, his son, and their Open Society Foundation. This signals a new level of confidence in the economic nationalist wing for disciplining the declining globalist wing. The attack upon the “liberal” and “left” groups will be widespread, as noted here:

The Trump administration plans to deploy America’s counter-terrorism apparatus - including the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security and the Justice Department - as well as the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department against certain left-wing groups it accuses of funding and organizing political violence, the officials said.

The effort marks an escalation in the administration’s efforts to target domestic opponents, raising alarm among civil rights groups and Democratic leaders about the use of executive power.

…

The push against domestic groups and their donors comes amid Trump’s attacks on law firms, universities and the media, and his deployment of National Guard troops to some Democratic-run cities. Democrats and civil society watchdogs say the move is intended to silence opposition, in addition to seeking retribution against his perceived personal political enemies.

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The dire position of the US government’s finances, together with the need to intensify exploitation and looting at home in the face of increasing opposition and Chinese competition abroad, also support the need to move to the more authoritarian and fascistic approach being taken by Trump. With these ongoing changes in the balance of power within the US oligarchy it can be expected that the culling and disciplining of the courtier class will continue apace. By 2029, even if a Democratic president is elected, the new capitalist class consensus will mean that there will be very little real change in policies from those of the Trump administration.