Monday, October 3, 2022
Both Larch's succinct summary and my new video are essentially in unison.
Putin set the goals of the SMO. The demilitarization of an enormous military, stocked for eight years and restocked feverishly from the bases and warehouses of 30 countries in NATO, is going very well. The Ukies had 750,000 men in trenches and fortified positions and embedded in big cities, shielded by civilians everywhere from Kiev to the smallest settlement in Donbas. Ukraine had a significant air force and stout air defenses with BUKs and S-300s in large numbers.
The Russians have reduced this order of battle markedly. The navy of Ukraine is gone. It has no functioning naval bases. The Ukie air defenses have been reduced to mobile radars and a few extant S-300s. The most effective air defense they have is the tactic of massing MANPADS and receiving real time alerts from NATO of oncoming Russian jets and helos. This has not stopped the Russian aerospace forces, though it is a hampering defense that has to be recognized as a threat. The Ukie air force is 95% gone, only replenished from NATO with aircraft that stay in the battle for minutes before they are reduced to losses.
Over 500,000 Ukies are gone, dead and forever off the battlefield. Thousands of mercs have been killed or chased off the battlefield.
The entire junior officer echelon of Ukraine is gone. US and NATO officers are the tactical commanders, as communications in the battlefield document. American and British voices give the commands. Videos are available as proof.
Every strategic offensive launched by Kiev (and the NATO command running their military) has been destroyed. The only ground they have gained is ground ceded in order to draw the Ukies into the open or to reposition Russian forces to better lines of defense.
The Ukies have lost forever Mariupol, Kherson, Melitopol, all of Lugansk, 65% of Donetsk, their access to the sea (except with Russian permission at Odessa), the air space over most of Ukraine, and sovereign control over their utilities and transport systems which exist only as long as the Russians allow. Ukraine is under its 4th total mobilization. By winter's end it will have lost another 100,000 of their cannon fodder. Likely, too, they will have lost what they hold in Donetsk oblast.
The Russians have done this while exposing only 15% of their military. It is clear from signs in Chechnya, Kadyrov could gather 100,000 extra men who want to join the Chechen forces from the Caucuses and other brotherly muslim lands.
There are also ample signs that Syrians and some African fighters want to join Russia in the battle against the Hegemon. Another 100,000 foreigners could easily be brought to Ukraine, if needed.
So, Russia has enormous depth of reserves beyond its own manpower potential.
What the generals have done is send steel and explosives to demilitarize the Ukraine, not manpower. Artillery, bombs, rockets and missiles are fighting the war, saving Russian manpower while decimating Ukie force structure.
As I view the war, it is going very well for the mission Putin set.
Do I think it is optimal? If you take the SMO as a small part of a larger war (which it is in fact), this small war is going very well. Ukraine will be destroyed and NATO will have no proxy. NATO will have to send its own manpower. That stage of warfare will fracture the Alliance. The US will have to coerce a new proxy force to fight Russia out in the open sectors of Ukraine. They won't be in fortified positions. And they won't have civilians as shields.
If the US manages to spread the war into Poland and Belarus and Moldova, a few hypersonic missiles from Russia will quench the enthusiasm of those NATO countries, and Russia will join with Belarus in an overwhelming punishment of Poles and Baltics. If Kaliningrad is touched, the attackers will lose their capitals and HQs.
What the Russian military has not done does not indicate what it cannot do. The GS has a means to accomplish the goal of demilitarization and they are employing it. Strategically, the SMO is very successful. Pulling out of Izyum and Lyman are blips that don't even factor in the military scheme of things. Pawns on the board.
(Larch445 is the handle of a well-known geopolitical commentator based in Eastern Europe.)
As was expected, today, once the facts began to stream in, the scale of failure of all those VSU "offensives" became clear. There are purely military reasons for that and hysterics from Petraeus and amount of Ukie trolls on every platform are the best indicators. I speak about it today:
Sunday, October 2, 2022
1. I'll start with that and will only stress that these are horrifying warriors because their motivation is higher than that of berserkers. Judge for yourself:
One-tenth of the men in Russia volunteering for the conflict with Ukraine are doing so to escape their henpecking wives, the mayor of the coal-mining town of Vorkuta, Yaroslav Shaposhnikov, has claimed. “Around 10% of volunteers who go to the frontline are going there because their wives probably became accustomed to a decent life… and are nagging, nagging, and nagging,” Shaposhnikov said during an online panel discussion – ‘Open Vorkuta’. The official urged Russian women to provide a solid “rear” for their husbands and support them instead. Shaposhnikov, however, did not elaborate on what his 10% estimate was based on.
You don't want to meet those people on the battlefield because they are afraid of nothing, including death. I assume Russia assembles and trains those men into special crack formations which will deal with the remnants of VSU come the end of the year. Beware! LOL.
Now to a more serious matter:
2. Somebody posted here the link to Alexander Rogers' superbly acerbic piece on this Liman affair. Here is the link, sadly Google Translate will not completely convey Roger's traditional sarcastic tone but still--worth reading.
Try to run it through a translator. All of Rogers' points are valid.
3. Where would we have been without the military "expertise" of The National Interest? I am being sarcastic, of course. But this one is worth paying attention to because it may, in the end, reflect both desperation and delusions on part of America's military class. In the piece titled A Ceasefire Can Ensure Ukrainian Independence, David Pyne concludes:
After the rigged referendums conducted by Kremlin-appointed leaders this week indicated that an overwhelming majority supported unification with Russia, Putin hosted a ceremony at the Kremlin this morning declaring all four Ukrainian oblasts a part of Russia. Annexing these territories will increase Russia’s population by approximately 6 million people and effectively mark the end of Russia’s so-called “special military operation,” which has been a war fought for limited objectives and with a fraction of its armed forces. But the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine after mobilization is likely to be even more destructive and could potentially include some of Russia’s powerful but not yet utilized unconventional weapons, with the objective being the total capitulation of Ukraine.
Ah, yes, of course, referenda were "rigged"--by VSU indiscriminate shelling of civilians, atrocities committed by Ukie Nazis and their NATO "instructors" against women, children, and old people. Right, it was "rigged" from the git go by effectively committing crimes against humanity against the Russophone population in Ukraine but, due to Payne's having M.S in "national security studies" and being a former H.Q. staff officer, he doesn't bother himself with facts and consequences. Moreover, he comes up with this wowser:
Reports indicate that Putin’s partial mobilization will not be limited to 300,000 troops, as the Russian government has misleadingly claimed, but rather 1.2 million military reservists that will be used to overrun Ukraine in a planned winter offensive that could bring an end to the country’s independence by early next year.
Of course, he merely gives the link, without elaboration on what those "reports" are, because they are directly from... Ukrainskaya Pravda, a tabloid propaganda rag of Kiev Regime, but Payne, following his "education" from the military system which loses all its wars, doesn't mind spreading obvious propaganda BS without even bothering himself with checking the reality, forget about getting acquainted with those mobilization plans of Russia which are openly available (much of them are, of course, classified) to conclude that "1.2 million" IS NOT a partial mobilization. In fact, if Payne has his "degree" in whatever security "studies" he could have, at least, educated himself with basic mobilization documents of Russian Federation such as:
Translation: Federal Law No. 31-FZ of February 26, 1997 (as amended on July 14, 2022) "On mobilization training and mobilization in the Russian Federation".
And mind you, I am not even talking about the simple mathematical fact that mobilization of 1.2 million people in Russia would have manifested itself on a scale much much larger (no, not 1.2 mil. divided by 300 thousand= 4 times, no) than what is happening right now, because mobilizing 1.2 million soldiers as opposed to 300,000 IS NOT 4 times larger, it is a different type and scale of mobilization, including what amounts to enlisted personnel in existing Armed Forces. But Payne, obviously, never studied those things for his degree and while serving in whatever the H.Q. he served in.
After that, he describes "conditions" which may "preserve" 404 not understanding that we all long ago left the world of wishful thinking and PR and are into serious business of dismantling Pax America in which Ukraine is but one of the fronts of this titanic struggle and it is all about demolishing existing combined West whose elites, quoting Vladimir Putin, are satanic. Kiev regime is a homicidal Nazi org, supported by the US and US military, and now the US will have the stamp of enablers of Neo-Nazism and let it live with it. After all, the main US Army "hero" and allegedly "tank genius" General Patton considered Russians to be subhumans and, I think, this tradition is being preserved. Frankly, I don't know why this rag by Dmitri Simes even exists--it is Exhibit A of a complete intellectual collapse of whatever passes in the US for geopolitical views and it is a sorry spectacle.
But I wanted to make you aware of that, and, judging by the other wave of Ukie bots spreading fake news and exhibiting their ever-increasing butt-hurt, they should. Because today Constitutional Court of Russia approved signed documents on four oblasts joining Russia and in this teeny-weeny piece of news that all four oblasts will join Russia within administrative borders which existed since the moment of their creation--you know, in USSR (in Russian). But that is just legalistic mumbo-jumbo. Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimaaaaaaan.
About the whole shebang and how every desperate attempt is made to distract people's attention from huge events. As Larch stated succinctly:
Krasny Liman is the micro, Putin's speech and actions are the macro. The irony is people think Krasny Liman is easy to understand so they dwell on it as emblematic of the big picture, while Sept. 30 will remain for centuries as the Big Shift in geopolitical events. The war against Satan. Epic. Biblical. Colossal. Terrific monologue and primer for all to reexamine the Putin speech.
So, here is me:
In related news--real Russian cultural elite sings to 180,000 people in Moscow yesterday.
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^3000US citizens have no real political representation.
We don't live in a democracy. And our freedom is disappearing fast.
I don't want to be ruled by hypocrites, whores, and war criminals.
What about you? Time to push back against the corporate oligarchy.
And its multitude of minions and lackeys.
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