Strait Talk

CENTCOM has claimed that it has “degraded” Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz by destroying an underground facility storing anti-ship missiles, intelligence sites, and radar relays along the Iranian coastline.

Iran’s Abu Mahdi naval cruise missiles are displayed in a ceremony to mark their delivery to the navy and the Revolutionary Guard navy, in Iran, July 25, 2023 (Iranian Defense Ministry photo via AP).

The claim has limited credibility without knowing the volume of such missiles that have been destroyed, if any, and what proportion of Iran’s total they represent, or without knowing how many of these are being replaced by Russia and/or China. Israel and the US continue targeting Iranian missile/drone manufacturing and infrastructure, with US officials claiming a 90% reduction in Iran’s ability to launch large-scale missile attacks compared to the war’s start. Again, this claim sounds grossly inflated, since the US clearly has no idea of the total number of launch sites that remain (if it did, it would not have claimed that it had destroyed all the launchers even when Iran continues to launch some 20 to 50 a day), especially as it comes only a day after two Iranian cruise missiles struck the US base on Britain’s Diego Garcia, thousands of miles away from Iran in the IndiaN Ocean. The targets claim there was no damage, although their protestations carry little weight without more conclusive evidence.

More significant is the message that these missiles convey namely, that Iran has much further range potential than its adversaries commonly admit, showing that if they can hit Diego Garcia they can hit significant US bases in Europe (which is why Iranian Foreign Minister Arghchi is warning Israel that it can hit Israelis anywhere). This is of particular concern to Great Britain which has only just given the US permission to use its bases as launch sites for its war against Iran, even as the Guardian newspaper in Britain reports mounting anger with the US among UK ministers for the US having started this war in the first place and for the huge potential damage it may very well do to the British economy, notwithstanding the fact that it is the poorer economies of the world who are most immediately and gravely impacted (something which will endear those countries more fervently to China’s B&R style of spreading its international influence as against the US military protection racket). The last minute concession to the US by Keir Starmer’s government is yet another instance of feckless European toadying to US interests even as US actions degrade, endanger and humiliate European economies.

Strikes have been reported (and confirmed by Iran) on the Natanz nuclear facility, with Israel intensifying its aerial campaign against Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. is deploying three more amphibious assault ships and roughly 2,500 additional Marines to the region. Some sources contest the numbers, claiming that only two ships are involved with the total number of men being around 1,700. Regardless, this seems a very small number of men and would continue to seem very small even if it was ten thousand men who, if they were sent to Kharg island, would be facing enemy fire from more elevated Iranian positions on the mainland or, if they were sent to one or both the main islands of Qeshm or Karak in the Strait of Hormuz, could also be paralyzed by enemy fire, while the Iranians can continue to tighten their grip on Hormuz by firing missiles from the mainland, mining the Strait, using submarines or using underwater drones (modeled on Ukraine’s) to target tankers or other ships that do not have approved passage.

Iran is highly motivated to maintain the pressure on Hormuz given that its own ships use the passage to export Iranian oil at greatly inflated prices – now further assisted by the US which has temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea – mainly to China, and that Iran can extract huge payments from countries or other entities that are desperate to get their tankers or vessels through the Strait, using the narrower passage between two islands to achieve more effective control. These include Japan, currently in negotiations with Iran and which depends on oil shipped through this route for 90% of its oil (unlike China, which is 84% self-sufficient in energy).

The damage to the global economy caused by the closure of Hormuz is hardly limited to oil and gas, but also extends to fertilizer (manufactured from natural gas), shortages of which will decrease food production in coming months and increase food prices and, therefore, hunger, something of concern to Iran too, given that it has faced food and water shortages for quite some time in advance of this war, which is why it is allowing some grain ships through the Strait. Just as the shortage of oil is benefiting Russia, so also is the shortage of fertilizer, as Russia is a preeminent supplier worldwide.

In a strange mirror action, an Omani journalist – Salem al-Jahouri – has reported to the BBC that the Trump administration is pressuring Gulf Cooperation Council states to cough up massive cash to either continue or end the war in Iran. According to sources, Trump is demanding $5 trillion if the Gulf wants the war to keep going, or $2.5 trillion to make it stop. Although the council has publicly opposed the war and denied letting the U.S. use their territory, evidence shows American rockets firing from Gulf soil and U.S. warplanes crossing their airspace. The Gulf states are pulling back trillions in global investments – including $1.2 trillion pledged to the U.S. economy in bargaining around TTT (Trump’s Terror Tariffs). This story must still be confirmed.

Iran has successfully landed missile strikes in southern Israel (targeting Dimona and Arad). Iranian strikes caused dozens of injuries in Israel and substantial damage to residential areas and buildings. Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) have successfully targeted energy infrastructure, worsening (as is the case also with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilites) the global oil and gas supply crisis, and causing severe damage to a Qatari energy site. There are rumors that Iran may now possess Russian S400 air defense systems (Russia last year initiated training for Iranians in the use of these weapons last year, although it takes one to two years to be fully trained), and that an S400 in northeast Iran may have been responsible for the recent downing of a US F35.

Iran has threatened Ras al-Khamal, the UAE’s main oil export terminal, in retaliation for Saudi Arabia allowing the initial US strikes against Kharg island.

In a highly unanticipated move, the Trump administration has announced a temporary lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil currently stranded at sea to manage the surge in global oil prices. Iran says that the US has greatly exaggerated the amount of such oil and that Iran does not suppot the measure, given that its war aim is primarily to increase pressure on oil prices.

Even as Trump talks of some kind of probably hopeless ground operation against a vastly more numerous Iranian army, President Trump has signaled he wants a potential “winding down” of military efforts as the war enters its fourth week, given that he believes or says he believes that the US has already achieved victory. Someone forgot to inform the Iranians.

In my estimation, Trump does indeed need the war to wind down in order to save himself as he approaches the last vestige of US democracy that threatens to stand in his way in the upcoming November mid-term elections. Talk of the Pentagon demanding yet another $200 billion on top of a one trillion dollar military budget is guaranteed to enrage whatever is left of intelligent life in the US electorate. An upcoming Congressional vote on another War Powers Resolution is likely to show gathering support for resistance.

So Trump or someone acting for him spreads the rumor that Iran wants to negotiate. This cannot possibly be true. It is crystal clear to Iran that Trump and Netanyahu have zero credibility, and that Iran is now enjoying major leverage in the further continuation of the war.

As usual, it is impossible to be sure as to the extent of war damage that has been inflicted on Israel but it is likely to be far worse than anything officially admitted or reported. Israel even suffered an attack on a weapons depot in the Czech Republic by an outfit that calls itself “Earthquate Faction.”

Another mainly unanticipated development has been the withdrawal of NATO troops from Iraq, following hundreds of attacks on US and NATO facilities in Iraq by pro-Iranian Iraqi shia militia groups. Iraq has had to shut down its oil production at multiple oil fields. Given that its economy depends on oil for 90% of its revenue this opens up the possibility of the collapse of the forcibly imposed pro-US government of Iraq in favor of a revolutionary government that favors the Iranian cause. It occurs as evidence grows of a far stronger than anticipated Hezbollah resistance in Lebanon- 55 operations were recorded last Friday alone – as Israel bombs numerous communities across southern Lebanon and Dahiel, and also targets Damascus government military assets in southern Syria (for the protection, it claims, of the Druze in Sweida), and as Trump demands that the terrorist, illegal government in Damascus and its former ISIS leader should invade Lebanon to hit at Hezbollah. Among other things, this would weaken al-Jolani’s government and make it more vulnerable to Israeli advance.