Iran Plays Hardball, US Military Looks For Off-Ramp

There was an overnight buzz that continues this morning. It started with reports in Reuters that Trump was willing to accept the Iran - Oman agreement for administering the Strait of Hormuz. The US blockade would end when the joint agreement was signed. Of course, that might be subject to US maneuvering behind the scenes, via pressure on Oman. These reports led to widespread speculation, such as this lengthy article at Zerohedge, which held out hope for an imminent “deal”:

US Official: Hormuz Deal Is Imminent, Upon Which US Will Lift Blockade Of Iranian Ports

Iran was quick to dispel any such illusions. First by attacking another ship utilizing the US route, then by issuing the following statement, which was essentially a demand for unconditional surrender by the US. Or unconditional acceptance of Iran’s terms for allowing US flagged commercial vessels to use the strait.

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

2h

BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declares the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the US “corrects its behavior,” rejecting Trump’s claim that the temporary Oman route amounts to a reopening, and setting out its conditions, including $300 billion in compensation, per Fars.

Iran “will never compromise, whether in war or in negotiations.”

1. Never threatening Iran or insulting its sacred values in any language

2. Ending, once and for all, any war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq

3. Lifting the naval blockade and withdrawing US military forces (naval and air) from the vicinity of Iran

4. Fully compensating Iran for the damages caused by the two aggressive and imposed wars, including a $300 billion fund

5. Lifting the unjust and illegal sanctions against the Iranian people

6. Unconditionally releasing all the assets that have been blocked and stolen from the Iranian people

7. Allowing Iran to charge up to 7% on every ship’s cargo

8. Allowing a ban on all US and Israeli commercial/military ships + “other hostile countries” from transiting

9. Allowing a violation toll of 20% on the ship’s cargo if any of the above are violated

And to rub all that well in, a bit of taunting:

Here’s Prof Pape’s comment on the Iranian demands. Pape definitely gets the issues right.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

26m

Iran Issues List of Demands, Complicating Efforts to Reopen Strait

Almost ensures Hormuz and Red Sea remains virtually shut for weeks and weeks more

What are the consequences for the global economy?

From my POV this fits in perfectly with my contention that Iran is seeking escalation. Carefully calibrated escalation. The closure of Hormuz is Iran’s nuke. Unlike a single explosion, this Hormuz nuke operates over time—which is exactly the sort of weapon you want on your side in a war of military but also economic attrition. This Hormuz nuke has the potential to destroy Trump and his Jewish Nationalist backers, so of course Iran will escalate to ensure that Hormuz and the Red Sea remain virtually shut for weeks—or months—more. As for the consequences for the global economy, well, I think we know what those consequences will be. Iran is confident that those consequences will be laid at the doorstep of Trump and his Jewish Nationalist backers.

But that doesn’t mean that those demands are simply negotiating positions. What those demands mean is that Iran controls the situation and they know it.

Does anyone in DC understand this? I think there are some people who do understand this—starting with Trump. The problem for Trump is that his essential narcissism means that he’s willing to sacrifice almost anything—the welfare of American service personnel, of NatSec institutions, of the US economy—rather than accept the humiliation entailed by Iran’s demands. Instead he’s still trying to find a way out of the maze he walked into or, alternatively, someone he can plausibly blame for this fiasco. Someone other than himself, of course. The upshot of this looks like an impasse.

But there are others in DC who are discussing how to get out of this. These are people many of whom probably see that the future of the GOP, the future of the US economy, the well being of long suffering American service personnel in the Middle East, and the future of America’s geopolitical position in the world may be at risk as a result of Trump’s subservience to Jewish Nationalist influence. Some of them are probably also alarmed by Trump’s plan to merge the United States into a junior partner of the Anglo-Zionist Empire—meaning, junior to Israel, via the provisions to merge intel sharing and defense technology, subordinating US assets and resources to Jewish Nationalist demands. Put those considerations in any order you choose.

The point is that CNN has a fascinating article that names four of the people who are engaged in discussing some sort of off-ramp from the war—who, at the very least, recognize that it’s a complete disaster.

Trump’s top general is ‘looking for an off-ramp’ from Iran war as US military options remain limited, sources say

Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has privately made clear to other top Trump advisers that the US needs to find an off-ramp from the war with Iran — because the military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire and airpower alone is unlikely to achievePresident Donald Trump’s stated objectives, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

“Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly.

Caine is not alone in his view that the war has reached a crossroads. He has discussed concerns about the military options for escalating the conflict and raised the prospect of finding an off-ramp from the war with other key Cabinet officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, two of the sources said.

“Including”? Does that mean “including but not limited to?”

The top US general has recently side-barred with some of those key, like-minded Trump advisers in an effort to facilitate interagency coordination and ensure they are on the same page ahead of meetings with the president. The aim has been to make clear the limitations and pitfalls of the available military options, including those that do not involve putting US boots on the ground, the sources said.

“I think it is just his way of protecting the military,” one of the sources told CNN, referring to Caine’s discussions with other top national security officials within Trump’s cabinet about the Iran war.

There’s much more to this article but I consider this excerpt to be the essence of it. Now, here’s a bit of speculation for my own part. I won’t pretend to say how likely this is, but it would be foolish not to consider this as a possibility. And, of course, I have—since the war began—maintained that this war could lead to Trump’s removal from office.

So, having read this, I reviewed the provisions of the Section 4 of the Twenty Fifth Amendment:

Section 4: Declaration by vice president and cabinet members of president’s inability

Section 4 has never been used, and its in such a case as this would be controversial and contentious. To make it stick it would be necessary to make the case that Trump’s psychological disabilities—his manifest narcissism (manifest in his ongoing attempts to transform Washington DC into a monument to himself) or his susceptibility to blackmail—render him “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”. That would be tough, from a political standpoint. Nevertheless, the named officials are key officials in the key NatSec offices of the regime. Two of the three have longstanding ties to the House and Senate. And, while Vance’s time in the Senate was relatively brief by comparison to Rubio, the very fact of his time in the Senate puts his key position on a different level than a VP who had no such ties.

The alternative would be impeachment—and, in fact, impeachment would quite possibly end up being necessary following any invocation of the 25th Amendment. The question is, how long can America drift this way, in an undeclared war that is nevertheless a major war? With the economy facing a crisis state?

Never say never. We’re in uncharted waters.