Mark Wauck
Meaning In History
As expected, Iran is not about to allow a face saving TACO. They will force Trump to either escalate into deepening disaster or accept total humiliation. Also, I’ve obtained a summary of the WSJ report on Trump’s contemplated victory declaration—Trump’s deliberations are real and portray an administration in disarray.
First, here’s an even briefer summary. As you’ll see later, what is presented as a “plan” isn’t really that. It’s a delusional “option” that’s being contemplated, debated, wished for, whatever.
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
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BREAKING: The Trump administration is now planning to resume the Iran war with full force after the November midterm elections, with Trump having a window from November 3rd through January to significantly escalate the war, until the newly elected members take office in the Senate and House, per Reuters.
Meanwhile, top Trump aides are pushing him to formally declare the Iran war over and keep it from escalating before November to limit Republican electoral losses.
This comes as Iran says it will “defeat Trumpism” in the November midterms, by “systematically damaging Trump’s presidency” through economic warfare.
Obviously, Trump 2.0 is simply scrambling, juggling conflicting “options” when they’re trapped with no off ramp available.
Iran pounced almost immediately after these reports came out. They clearly know that Trump has painted himself into a corner, and that the electoral damage will happen no matter what. This is the thinking behind Iran’s new unilateral escalations—to force the cornered rat to turn. There is zero chance that Iran will give Trump a breather until November. Note, too, that Iran is ignoring Israeli threats.
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
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BREAKING: Iran has directly warned the US that it would launch “a large-scale Iranian attack” on Israel, in response to any Israeli offensive on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon where Iran’s IRGC military personnel are located alongside Hezbollah fighters, per Reuters citing 3 senior officials briefed on the message.
The Israeli military has already occupied swathes of Lebanese territory south of the Ali al-Taher ridge and has publicly identified the ridge as one of its “primary operational focuses,” signalling it will proceed with the plan of destroying it in the coming weeks.
Bear in mind that when Iran says it will launch “a large-scale attack on Israel” they undoubtedly are threatening a large scale attack on the densely packed US military assets that have been pulled back from the Gulf region and are now stationed in Israel. This is a huge threat and one that is undoubtedly beyond US abilities to prevent at this point. Also bear in mind that Iran has repeatedly stated that if Trump continues the naval blockade Iran will strike.
So, read what follows with all that in mind. Trump is cornered and desperate. All his threats are backfiring.
Trump to declare Iran war over? Private talks hint at new US game plan ahead of key November vote
The focus of US has now shifted from military action to economic sanctions to keep the pressure on Tehran.
US President Donald Trump is having private discussions with senior aides about potentially declaring the Iran war over ahead of the November midterm elections.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, top aides are advising Trump that an escalation of the war beyond recent strikes could cost Republicans the midterm elections.
Sources told WSJ that Trump favors the idea of declaring an end to the war,even as both sides remain embroiled in routine flareups and impasse over the Strait of Hormuz.
The report said that Trump believes that sticking with economic pressure will eventually force the Iranian regime either to dismantle its nuclear program or collapse. This comes days after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “economic asphyxiation” of Iran, imposing a wave of sanctions on Tehran as the war enters its seventh month.
Trump has been informed by his aides that any further escalation in the war, beyond the retaliatory strikes, may end up costing the Republicans in the crucial November elections.
The barn door is open and the horses are cavorting out in the fields.
According to the report, Trump told aides that his decisions in the war are not guided by electoral consequences.
In a separate report, Reuters also quoted Trump aides as saying that they are pushing Trump to keep the Iran war from escalating before November’s midterm elections to staunch Republican electoral losses.
The report said that the Trump administration will consider ramping up military action after the November 3 vote.
Again, no way that Trump could restart this unpopular war after November 3. First, Iran won’t give him a breather and that means stocks of munitions won’t be reconstituted. Second, the economic chickens coming home to roost will make further war politically impossible. Third, the electoral damage will be significant enough to prevent a restart. This is pure delusion.
The focus of US has now shifted from military action to economic sanctions to keep the pressure on Tehran. “We are keeping the pressure on Iran. But November is a priority,” a White House official told Reuters.
Way too late. I predict that even if Dems enable GOP to hang on, the political and economic climate will prevent a restart. And Iran will not allow for a breather.
Keeping the war mostly contained until then would help prevent the unpopular conflict from dominating the news as Trump’s Republicans campaign to defend thin majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, the sources told Reuters.
Meanwhile, WSJ reported that the US military is keeping around 50,000 troops in the region, giving Trump flexibility to escalate.
On paper. I question whether any such attempt would lead to an open revolt by the top brass.
US forces are intercepting Iranian missiles, protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and blockading Iranian ports and coastal areas. Last month, Trump was briefed on options including expanded airstrikes, ground operations to seize Iranian islands near Hormuz and strikes on the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site, which could be linked to covert nuclear activity.
Right. Trump was briefed on all those great options a month ago, and what great results flowed from that?
Just heard Brandon Weichert state that he’s hearing from people close to Vance who are saying that many people are leaving because Trump is “mentally checked out.”
