Mark Wauck
Give or take a few days, anyway.
As best I can remember, it started with leaks that Trump was considering—once again—using nukes on Iran. But wait, it turned out that Hormuz was open and there was a virtual bottleneck of tanker traffic, so forget the nukes. Then Bessent intervened in the bond market. Woops! When that effort came a cropper Trump weighed in with his threat to bomb anyone selling treasuries. Then Trump and Bessent finished off the week that was with their proposed Economic D-Day, without prior consultation with, like, anybody. Capped by Bessent telling China to “get with the program” or the US would cut them off from Persian Gulf oil. Then Trump pulled the rug out from under Mark Carney. As I understand what happened, Trump and Carney had a deal that would have cut Canadian trade with China. It was all read for signing, but then Trump tried to insert a clause that said Trump could raise tariffs on Canada anytime he wanted to in the future. Now Carney is reminding Trump how much the US needs Canadian oil—which is true—and threatening economic war on is own part.
And to cap it all, Trump asserted that he wasn’t even thinking about the midterms, much less concerned about them. A dead giveaway of exactly the opposite.
What’s going on here?
One place to start might be this article today at AmCon:
A new biography of the notorious lawyer sheds light on the Trump era.
Trump with mentor and professional anti-communist Roy Cohn—one of the slimiest and vilest figures in modern US history. A case of natural affinity.
It can’t be emphasized enough that Roy Cohn was Trump’s mentor before Trump hooked up with Epstein. To give you a flavor for this book review:
In the 11 years since Donald John Trump crashed American politics at the end of a golden escalator ride, oceans of ink have been spilled attempting to explain his and his movement’s political origins. …
Kai Bird points us … to a universe where ideology matters less than crass opportunism in the pursuit of money, sex, and power—where extreme narcissists will shatter everything around them to get their way. This was Roy Cohn’s world; Donald Trump is his inheritor.
... So how did a self-described “biographer of the American establishment” choose an embodiment of its antithesis? Bird admits that a few years ago he had “an epiphany and realized that with the political rise of Donald Trump I had somehow underestimated the significance of Roy Cohn.”
Readers of this page-turning, sometimes cringe-inducing book may agree that Cohn’s stamp on history has heretofore been underappreciated. They may also feel the need to take a shower after spending so much time with such a despicable man.
…
“Trump learned from Cohn that the court of public opinion is far more important than a court of law,” Bird says. Had he lived long enough, Cohn might have coined “fake news,” one of the current president’s favorite insults. Both men, of course, loved the media spotlight and privately sought favorable coverage to reinforce their strongman reputations.
Also like his mentor, Trump inspires hatred in his enemies. Indeed, he seems to feed off it. Readers who endure Cohn’s remorseless crime spree across four decades of American life will better understand how his kindred spirit and protege could eventually make it to the White House.
OK, so, what’s going on? Maybe this past week reminds you a bit of the beginning of Trump 2.0. Remember the tariff shock and awe, with which Trump was going to strongarm the world with his “strongman reputation”, forcing the world to disgorge trillions to send to the US, where Trump would distribute the largess to his tech bro allies (and others) and pay off the debt? Or at least reduce the debt to manageable proportions? Or refinance it by rejiggering global trade? Or something? All while littering the Imperial City on the Potomac with monuments to himself—the new Genghis Khan, or Napoleon? Venezuela was supposed to be a lesson to the likes of China and Russia and Iran to “get with the program.”
But Trump progressively lost control of that program, and my suspicion is that the antics of the past week were his attempt to regain control. But with some serious aspects. I can’t prove this, but I do suspect that the outrageous lies about 40 tankers transiting Hormuz in a single night—put out by Trump’s favorite Mossad scribe at Axios—was bluster aimed at, well, certainly at Canada, which supplies the US with similar grades of oil. Possibly at China, too, although the Chinese are probably immune to that sort of nonsense. Certainly all the over the top threats fit within Trump’s Cohnian mold. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
My prediction is that all this bluster will be to no effect, so in the meantime lets round things up a bit. Because there are some interesting things going on. Let’s start with the shifting tectonic plates of American politics and the limits of money.
Megatron @Megatron_ron
Aug 22
 Mike Rogers, Michigan’s Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, has asked AIPAC not to run ads supporting his campaign, fearing that backing from the pro-Israel group could hurt him among voters angered by the war in Gaza, Axios reports.
Rogers discussed the issue with AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles last week, and the group shelved a video ad targeting his Democratic opponent, Israel critic Abdul El-Sayed, the following day.
Speaking of shifting tectonic plates, that could be happening in West Asia, as well. Although unconfirmed, this is being widely reported. If true, it’s very big. I would expect—again, if true—that Egypt would be in line as well. It would spell the end of US dominance in the region:
Clash Report @clashreport
NEW: Iran has reportedly been invited to join the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye.
Mehdi Rahimi, head of the Iranian parliament’s official news agency Khaneh Mellat, told Al-Mayadeen that Iran received an invitation and that “the matter is under consideration.”
For now, however, the invitation has not been independently confirmed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry or senior leadership, nor publicly by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Türkiye.
This falls in line with earlier reports out of Iran:
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf
1/2 We’ve received numerous messages from neighboring countries about shaping new security arrangements and economic cooperation in the region.
The United States put the security of every single one of its allies at such risk through bullying and pure disregard for their interests for the sake of Israel that they briefly saw their entire existence on the line.
A homegrown, independent order is what will actually deliver peace and security.
Here’s a burst of Iran updates:
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
9m
BREAKING: US House Speaker Mike Johnson says the Iran war is going to enter a “new phase very soon,” declaring “we’ll get this finished.”
Dutifully talking up Economic D-Day?
BREAKING: Iran views the war as restarting in the coming days, with Marandi saying “In the coming days, it is very likely that the military conflict will be renewed.”
I wonder whether this signals a kinetic Iranian response to Trump’s Economic D-Day?
BREAKING: The Trump administration has asked Pakistan to send a new peace deal proposal to Iran to keep Iran’s “IRGC backchannel” open, coming as a senior Iranian official says Trump is using Pakistani officials to announce fabricated talks rumors to stabilize the oil market, per Reuters and a senior Iranian official in Tehran familiar with the matter.
Iran, however, continues to refuse reopening the Strait of Hormuz or return to negotiations unless Trump agrees to all of Iran’s conditions, including $300 billion in US compensation, the lifting of all US sanctions, the release of all Iranian frozen assets, and the end of the US naval blockade of Iran.
BREAKING: Iran announces the discovery of major gas reserves [in southern Fars province] worth over $165 billion, containing more than 7.5 trillion cubic feet of “sweet” natural gas, the highest quality type with close to zero impurities, plus significant gas condensates, Iran’s oil minister told IRIB.
BREAKING: U.S. service member casualties in the Iran war have just jumped to 774 wounded or killed, after the Pentagon added scores of new troops to the wounded list in the last few days, per WaPo.
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC has successfully shut down a UK power plant for 4 days in an unprecedented cyber attack, believed to be the first time Iranian-affiliated hackers have successfully shut down a UK facility of this kind, per The Telegraph.
BREAKING: Trump made over 1,000 stock trades in June alone worth up to $263 million tied to market events he created, often buying and selling the same security on the same day after the event was over, per new government ethics filing.
Recent purchases include Visa, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, and Cintas, following 3,642 trades involving stocks of public companies between January 1st and March 31st. Trump also made more than 21,000 securities trades in 2025 in bursts tied to market events he created, with the total value between $600 million and $1.86 billion, occasionally buying and selling the same security on the same day.
The White House claims Trump’s trades pose “no conflict of interest” as they are “independently managed,” coming amid Trump already being sued in federal court over Trump Media selling advance access to his Truth Social posts to subscribers paying up to $100,000 per month via Truth API.
BREAKING: Iran warns it “will respond with an earthquake-like retaliation” in response to Trump’s economic warfare, directly warning all Gulf countries not to join the economic war, and saying Iran will strike all US-backed Gulf energy infrastructure and Hormuz bypass oil routes, including Yanbu and Fujairah, Iran’s SNSC chief Rezaei told IRIB.
On the financial front Trump 2.0 is encountering open skepticism, even from the establishment media—but bear in mind that everything Trump/Bessent do is connected:
JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics
Financial Times:
“Scott Bessent’s running battle with the bond market is starting to look like his boss’s war in Iran — started by his own hand with a tangled set of objectives, an underestimated opponent and an implausible path to victory. And like the conflict in the Middle East, we are all going to suffer its effects.
Three weeks ago, of course, he inserted himself in the market for the Japanese yen, of all things, buying the currency to prop it up in what was painted as a friendly act of solidarity with an ally in need.
The link back to Treasury bonds may not be immediately obvious, but bond market insiders are not buying the friends-helping-friends explanation, and instead see it as an effort to stop Japan from fixing its yen problem by selling down its gigantic stash of US debt.
So now, no fewer than three times in three weeks, Bessent has given the message to investors to please stop selling his bonds. But they are selling his bonds anyway.”
Was this the wrong time to anger Canada?
Could be a wild ride coming up.
