The Schoolgirl Slayers Lose

Iran has shown extraordinary moral resilience in refusing to develolp a nuclear weapon. It demonstrates extraordinary courage in facing up to the most powerful nation and most reckless bully on the planet, and its vassalsa. Russia has shown extraordinary moral resilience in holding back from retaliating with its nuclear and Oreshnik-style non-nuclear weapons on those Americans, Europeans and Ukrainians who have fired their cruise missiles on Russian nuclear facilities. Russia has shown extraordinary courage in facing up to the most powerful and most reckless bully on the planet, and its vassals. Kiev is still there; its leaders still eat breakfast.

The US massacres schoolgirls. The US and Israel decapitate entire leaderships without anything remotely like proportionate justification. Israel massacres hundreds of innocents with wired walkie-talkies.

US war expenses are increasing rapidly, reaching $1.8 billion per day according to Max Blumenthal. At this rate it is inevitable that the White House will have to raise more money from Congress. The Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the House, while the minority Democrats in the Senate have the power to filibuster if a vote in favor does not achieve 60. Not only are there questions as to whether the US government will have the necessary support to pursue the war, but it may at some point in the future have to consider whether it is vulnerable, given the entirely unprovoked nature of the war, to demands for reparations. Inconceivable though this may seem now of hegemonic supremacy, history offers us no shortage of strange twists of fortune. President Masoud Pezeshkian said he was in conversation with his counterparts in Russia and Pakistan on the terms of peace his government would seek. The only way to end this war he says nis recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.

Israel Invades Lebanon

Hezbollah has for decades fulfilled essential functions of local government and administration for a substantial population in Lebanon, a deeply divided polity whose official government has decided on prostrate subservience to the US. Claiming that it is retaliating for that government’s failure to rein in Hezbollah (gravely weakened by Israeli walkie-talkie terrorism in 2024) and its presence in southern Lebanon below the Litani river, Israel has engaged in an intensive air campaign, ground incursions, and severe infrastructure destruction against Lebanon where it has also demanded the evacuation of hundreds of villages. Other measures include widespread air strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa region, creating a buffer zone, issuing mass evacuation orders.

The “civilized: political West is entirely unconcerned. As is the UNSC which, in reaction to the neighboring crisis in Iran can only bring itself to condemn Iranian attacks on the Gulf states. Quite a few of these attacks, it turns out, are Israeli false flag operations designed to destroy the wealth and security of its supposed “normalized” friends. The UNSC cannot bring itself to acknowledge the primary evil of unprovoked US and Israeli attacks on Iran, in the first place.

The UN has been captured by Washington, and Washington is strangling the UN with the BOP with dazzlingly ineffective or nonexistent protest from the Global Majority or the BRICS.

Israeli attacks on Lebanon include intense aerial campaigns. Strikes have hit areas in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley, killing over 570 people as of early March 2026. Israel has also sent ground troops into southern Lebanon, stating intentions to seize control of “additional strategic positions” and deepen a buffer zone near the border. Massive evacuation warnings have been issued for dozens of towns and villages, extending north of the Litani River, leading to mass displacement. Reports indicate widespread destruction of homes, buildings, and infrastructure in southern Lebanon, reminiscent of strategies in Gaza. Israeli officials have threatened to further expand operations into Lebanon if Hezbollah does not stop its attacks. These actions have severely damaged infrastructure and intensified the humanitarian crisis, causing massive civilian displacement.

US Attacks Iraq

Iraq has been increasingly drawn into the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iraq is currently a primary battlefield for retaliatory strikes and proxy warfare. The largely Shia population of Iraq is in rebellion against th US imperial assets in Iraq, in favor of Iran. On Thursday, March 12, a US KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, killing all six crew members. An Iranian proxy group claimed responsibility, but the US Central Command stated the crash was not due to hostile fire. On March 10, a drone struck the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near the airport. In the Kurdish region around Erbil there have been near-daily drone and missile attacks targeted at the US Consulate and the Erbil International Airport.

A French soldier was killed in an attack on a military base in Iraqi Kurdistan on March 12. (Alexander Mercouris today has speculated as to whether there are connections between drone attacks on British and French soldiers at British and French bases in the region, and what may represent collaboration between Russia and Iran in retaliating against Britain and France for their role in striking at targets in Russia on behalf of Ukraine, including the firing earlier this week of Storm Shadow or Scalp missiles on a military factory in Russia’s Bryansk).

The U.S. has conducted air attacks against Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) bases throughout Iraq—including Jurf al-Sakhr and al-Qaim, and sites near Baghdad to deto degrade the ability of Iran-backed militias to launch further attacks. Iran-backed militias have expanded their targets to include oil fields and energy infrastructure leading to the suspension of output at several blocks in the Kurdish region.

With oil accounting for over 90% of Iraqi state revenue, disruptions to production and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have created a grave threat to Iraq’s stability, potentially leading to public-sector payroll delays as early as next month. Over the past 24 hours Iran has granted Iraqi oil tankers safe passage through the Strait. Iraq is currently operating under a caretaker government with limited power to rein in powerful militia groups or maintain neutrality as internal factions split their support between the U.S. and Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz

Iran has denied that it has mined the Strait of Hormuz although it has confirmed that it has the capability so to do. In addition to regular aerial drones the Iranians have also deployed underwater drones in the Gulf which are those which are responsible for the recent destruction of several tankers, and which allow Iran to open and close the Strait at will. The underwater drones are said in Russia to be copies of those that Ukraine has used on many occasions in the Black Sea, and which, following Russian capture of such drones, have been developed by Russia for its own purposes and for sharing the technology with Iran.

This aligns with the flexibility that Tehran is demonstrating with respect to which ships it says it is prepared to permit passage through the Strait. In addition to allowing passage for the shipping of Iranian and Chinese vessels carrying oil and gas to China, these include Iraqi tankers or LNG vessels. Freedom of passage includes Bangladeshi tankers and LNG vessels. It is reported that Iran is negotiating with India and that Indian vessels may also be allowed passage. Although India gets 70% of its oil imports along routes that do not involve the Strait of Hormuz, it is much more heavily dependent on Hormuz for passage of LNG vessels. Oil prices have stabilized as I write about $100 a barrel, but gas prices continue to spike. As of March 2026, global Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) prices have spiked dramatically, with Asian spot prices more than doubling to over $25/MMBtu and European prices (TTF) rising nearly 50% following supply disruptions in the Middle East. Key disruptions include a shutdown at a major Qatari export plant, threatening 20% of global supply.

A few hours before my writing these lines an LPG tanker sailing to India has crossed the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran war in the Middle East. The vessel passed the strait this afternoon without any incident. Another tanker will sail for India soon. Iran’s Ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, has confirmed that Tehran will provide safe passage to vessels bound for India through the Strait of Hormuz, citing longstanding friendship and shared interests between the two countries.

It seems to me unlikely that Tehran will want to extend comparable hospitality to European countries such as France or Italy who also want to talk with Iran about similar exemptions, but the phenomenon of negotiated passage shows that Iran has considerable leverage and bargaining power in these circumstances. One wonders though whether the passage of fairly large numbers of ships (over 20, it is said, in the case of India) opens up the Strait to coalition mischief and confusion.

The Trump administration has confirmed that until April 11 it is lifting sanctions on Russian oil that is still at sea – 121-124 million barrels of Russian oil (two thirds of the amount of oil that the US is releasing from its own reserves). The formal lifting of sanctions should provide immunity to vessels carrying Russian oil from Western attempts to attack or hinder them One may speculate whether the lifting of sanctions will be extended if the war itself continues since, if the war does continue to April 11 and beyond, the US will continue to be under pressure to try to stabilize oil prices especially given that the quantity of oil in US reserves available for release to the open market will be significantly diminished. The capacity of reserves was already lower than it should have been even before the release announced yesterday.

Amid rising prices and with the key passageway for oil shipping still closed, the U.S. and other members of the International Energy Agency said they will release the largest volume of emergency oil reserves in its history. That release will include 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This marks the first such drawdown since Biden issued a release of 1 million barrels a day for six months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The strategic reserve can house 714 million. As of March 6, it is holding more than 415 million barrels. If the U.S. does not add any barrels to the reserve, that would reduce the SPR’s stock to about 243 million barrels.

Because of the closure of the Hormuz, there is a 33% reduction in the quantity of fertilizer that is reaching its destination, which warns of growing hunger globally.