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9:23 US & Israel target Iranian leaders 11:19 Supreme leader Ali Khamenei 12:28 US & Israel bomb a school 13:38 Germany ignores international law 15:10 Friedrich Merz, BlackRock boy 16:27 Canada PM Mark Carney 17:48 (CLIP) Carney WEF Davos speech 18:45 West's hypocrisy 20:19 Trump's war unites the West 21:33 Canada supports US-Israeli war 22:11 Netanyahu ICC arrest warrant 22:49 Nuclear weapon negotiations 24:24 US surprise attacks on Iran 26:34 Myth of "rules-based order" 27:20 Germany supports war 28:39 Turning victim into aggressor 29:29 France supports war 31:07 EU supports war 32:10 Ursula von der Leyen hypocrisy 33:16 EU works with Israel 33:40 EU backs Gulf monarchies 35:22 EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas 36:51 UN Charter on use of force 37:37 UN Charter on self-defense 38:14 Western imperialism 39:15 Outro
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INTERVIEW: Netanyahu is more than willing to sacrifice the world
The video transcript features an in-depth interview with Professor Muhammad Marandi, who provides a detailed Iranian perspective on the current conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The discussion begins with the professor condemning the Western support for Israeli aggression and highlights the massacre of innocent civilians, including 165 elementary school girls, which Western media largely ignore. He criticizes Western hypocrisy on human rights and accuses regional regimes of collaborating with the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
Professor Marandi explains the strategic and intellectual legacy of the recently assassinated Iranian leader, describing him as a cultured, principled and courageous intellectual, as well as strategic figure whose death has galvanized Iranian unity and resistance rather than weakening it. The professor anticipates a prolonged conflict, asserting that the assassination was a deep strategic blunder by the U.S. and Israel, which instead strengthened Iranian resolve and global Muslim solidarity.
Turning to the possibility of negotiations, Marandi expresses deep mistrust of U.S. intentions, especially given past betrayals during ceasefire talks, and dismisses claims that Iran is seeking dialogue. He foresees a bloody, protracted conflict where Iran will continue missile strikes against U.S. and Israeli targets, aiming to impose a strategic defeat on the so-called “Epstein regime” in Washington.
A significant segment of the interview addresses Iran’s nuclear policy, specifically the fatwa against nuclear weapons issued by the late Ayatollah and its continuation. While the fatwa remains officially in place, Professor Marandi acknowledges that under existential threat, Iran’s nuclear posture could change. He notes that U.S. policies under Trump inadvertently pushed Iran closer to nuclear advancement and shifted public opinion in favor of nuclear armament, despite official denials.
The professor also discusses the impact of the conflict on global oil markets, warning that continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would lead to rising oil prices and potential global economic crisis if the conflict escalates further. He highlights Iran’s measured approach to the conflict, using mainly older weaponry to avoid triggering a full-scale global crisis, but warns that the U.S. and Israel are playing a dangerous game that risks catastrophic consequences.
In closing, Professor Marandi expresses condolences for the victims and reiterates the resilience of the Iranian people, asserting that the current crisis will not destroy Iran but will instead strengthen its resolve and lead to the eventual defeat of its adversaries.
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Yesterday, I wrote about the consequences of an attack on Iran, focusing on how it would affect the US and Trump. The title of the post was “The Stupidity Paradox,” which is a book by Alvesson and Spicer. The pdf is downloadable HERE. It is possibly the best work ever written on institutional and corporate organizations.
It appears to be influenced by Herbert Simons, notion of Bounded Rationality which intersects with studies of cognitive styles, which I have written about before.
You may wonder why I spent so much time talking about things like Types 1, 2, and 3 thinking . The first two were popularized by Kahneman as “fast” and “slow’. The third is creative thinking —rhizomatic or relational—most effective in existential situations.
Type 1 is prioritized in institutional or organizational settings, allowing for smooth management — but resulting in errors and stupid decisions. It is the kind of thing that you see in American strategic planning and intelligence operations— where “analysts” and “planners” try to provide their bosses with solutions that confirm their biases, with dissent filtered out by group-think.
That is what we see now with Iran, Israel and the US.
I opined that war with Iran is not a rational option – not for the US, not for Israel. But I also argued that most US wars are irrational. The US does not “think” in any strategic sense. Arguments that the US military buildup and technologies give it an edge are equally irrational — based on wishful thinking and MIC propaganda.
So I posited, as you will recall, that among the various options, the only rational option for Trump—if he didn’t want to commit political suicide — was to keep the talks going, find a face-saving compromise and extract himself.
However, I also said that while he might be influenced by saner minds or just self-preservation, he is not a rational actor.
So now we see the Stupid Paradox in action.
Trump is talking sheer nonsense. There is no need for me to rebut his long list of lies. I was surprised that he did include the Twin Towers among other Iranian transgressions. The truth is there for anyone with half a mind to see. A pity that many people don’t even have half.
As William Schryver wrote:.
Both sides would be hurt badly, but the Iranians would not be severely depleted, let alone defeated, whereas the US would be hurt in a fashion it has not experienced in the memory of many people still alive — only to then look around and discover itself in a state of acute logistical crisis after only a fortnight of high-intensity combat operations. —William Schryver, X
But is Trump actually responsible? How old is he? 79 going on 5?
As I said, he doesn’t “think”.
Not that Biden was any better. Nor Obama. Nor Bush. As Brian Berletic points out, they are all following a program. They differ in style, not in substance.
Read the US’ own policy papers - “Which Path to Persia?” is all about the US starving Iran to death, funding and arming terrorists to destroy it from the inside, making fake deals to frame Iran as the bad guys, and duping the public into accepting repeated US-Israeli strikes on it from abroad.
They admit all throughout the document that they need to lie to the public to build consent for regime change and that the opposition groups they back are not even popular and couldn’t exist without constant US support.
And if you have no time to read the whole thing, just read the table of contents in the image I provided you below so you don’t even have to open the document.
Who funds Brookings - big-oil, pharma, the arms industry, big-tech etc. - people you will have a hard time convincing yourself or anyone else that they have our or the Iranian people’s “best interests” or “freedom” at heart.
How can people say they oppose Trump then spend their time online supporting US regime change Trump himself is openly and loudly promoting? Brian Berletic@BrianJBerletic
Presidents do not have “advisors”— they have courtiers. The people Presidents surround themselves with all conform to the basic principles of the Stupidity Paradox: especially the notion that if you did something and it failed, you have to keep repeating it—the classic definition of madness.
Of course, while repeating the same mistakes, you pretend you’re doing something different. You pretend you are somehow different from all those other guys before you who did the same thing.
Yesterday, the Iranians announced they would give up plans to enrich uranium—a compromise that might have given Trump an off-ramp from confrontation if he had pursued negotiations further.
I am quite sure the Iranians had been prepared for two reactions:
Trump announces success against Trump. “See, I saved the world from an Iranian bomb!”
The Israelis strike to prevent the Americans from backing down from war, thus activating US support, plans for which had already been made.
So, the Israelis struck Iran – targeting Khamenei and the residences of military and governmental officials. They did this with missiles launched from outside Iranian airspace and with terrorist drone strikes within the country.
One strike hit a girl’s school, killing 40 girls. (Later updated to 63).
Af first, there was confusion. Some “anonymous” officials said the Israeli attack was coordinated with the US. Some said no, it was unilateral.
Then, of course, Trump made his speech setting aside doubts.
So the US and Israel are now at war with Iran – and therefore with China and Russia. It’s another proxy war.
But the Iranians were prepared. And it was immediately obvious Israel’s air defenses, Golden Dome and THAAD, and Patriot batteries are not going to be of much use.
Khamenei had been moved to safety in advance. We can’t say much about the rest of the leadership but it seems that some military commanders may have been killed – their homes targeted— which means their families and neighbors too, which by the way, is war crime since at home they are non-combatants under international law.
But the US and Israel don’t care. Even schools and school children are not spared. So far the death toll is 63.
But that was followed by massive strikes on US bases and facilities all across the Middle East, as well as strikes on Israel. In the case of bases close to Iran, they are using older, shorter-range missiles and drones — which are no less effective than the hypersonic weapons they are using for the first time against Israel,
This $ 1 billion US radar —the US’s most advanced in the Middle East— was put out of action by a Geran drone.
Iran has struck at all the major US bases in the Middle East, including its bases in the KSA, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan , the UAE, and perhaps Turkey. And Yemen has entered the fray, which complicates the Ford joining the Abe in the Arabian Sea. There are reports of attacks on the US carrier fleet in the Arabian Ocean, but nothing has been confirmed.
As I write, Iran has just announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Watch the US economy tank.
Who will win? Stupid always loses in the end. Which is why the US has never won a war against an enemy who can fight back.
Americans will likely die. Who killed them? Trump pulled the trigger. But the gun is called the United States of America.
Canada, BTW, supports the US attack. I am a Canuck. And I am ashamed.
The Stupidity Paradox
SOTU Show Of Total Untruth
Trump’s speech differed not in “truthiness” but in the amount of time devoted to foreign policy. Biden went on and on about the need to confront and defeat the Russian hordes, bent on conquering first Ukraine, then Europe, then ...Milwaukee?
But Trump focused more on domestic issues – since, with the Supreme Court decisions, he has to get his tariffs past Congress, which may be difficult after November. So he did not spend much time on foreign policy… Democracy is a bitch.
But [these are] some terrible people. They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” he claimed without providing additional information.
After [Operation] Midnight Hammer, they were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program — in particular, nuclear weapons,” Trump said. “Yet, they continue, starting it all over. We wiped it out and they want to start all over again. And are at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions. Donald Trump . SOTU 2026
Bad people in Iran. You would think they were Democrats. But both parties lag behind public opinion, with anti-Israel opinions on the rise, especially among the young.
There is also a spill-over effect from anti-Zionism-- generating antisemitism as well --since 76% of American Jews believe that Israel’s existence is vital for the long-term future of the Jewish people. As Israel more and more defines itself as a genocidal racist state, all American Jews are painted with the same bloody brush, despite a significant minority opposing Zionism, including the Orthodox and Holocaust survivors.
There are just 7.5 million Jews in the US – but their influence on government policies is disproportionate to the population, and the public is gradually becoming weary of it.
As the US declines and living standards decline, Americans are searching for someone to blame. Not themselves, of course, who are really the ones responsible— but others who stand out.
In other words, the kind of unconditional love that Trump offers Israel is something he may regret later.
Right now, the talks between the US and Iran are going no place —but the US, as I have written, simply doesn’t have the resources to go to war. To guarantee any degree of success it would need to triple its assets in the Middle East and be prepared for a campaign longer than a month, even though that would exhaust its critical munitions stockpiles in as little as three to four weeks , with some high-demand weapons running out in less than one week.
On the other hand, Trump is talking as though the US were Almighty! Politics for him is showbiz and that’s the script.
So he will continue with the Talks using Witkoff and Kushner who are card-carrying Zionists, although not Israeli citizens, which looks good to the Zionist lobby. Eventually, people will lose interest, and then he can seek an off-ramp.
Moon of Alabama provides an excellent analysis:
Today the third round of the current negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is taking place in Geneva. After three hours the talks were paused to allow the negotiators to communicate with their governments. They are supposed to continue later today.
Iran continues to offer reductions in its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei insists on tangible outcomes:
“Today’s discussions were very serious, and we hope that in the talks taking place tonight, we will see a continuation of the dialogue on the lifting of sanctions and nuclear issues—this time in a more operational manner, with practical proposals and executable initiatives,” Baghaei said.
Baghaei insisting on those is a sign that the conditions the U.S. delegation has offered were vague and lacking specifics.
Before today’s round started the Wall Street Journal published a list (archived) of ‘tough’ demands the U.S. is making to Iran. These are:
• dismantling its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan; • delivering all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S.
• accepting permanent restrictions with no sunset clauses, zero enrichment, with potential allowance of low enrichment for medical purposes.In exchange for that the U.S. would offer … nothing tangible: The U.S. is offering only minimal sanctions relief to Iran as part of a deal.
The U.S. wants to see Iran comply with the terms for an extended period and, if judged to be sticking to the agreement, it could in time ask for more sanctions relief and other benefits, the officials said.
Why does the U.S. believe that Iran might be willing to give up all for nothing? If the demands the WSJ published are real the negotiations will go nowhere as these are in breach of several of Iran’s red lines.
The Trump administration will thus miss another potential off-ramp from its self-defeating threat of bombing Iran. In consequence the Zionist lobby will increase the pressure on President Trump to regime change the Islamic Republic. But the Trump administration has no public support for such an endeavor.
To make the ‘politics’ around a strike look better it is pushing Israel to fire the first salvo in a new war: As the administration mulls military action in Iran, officials argue it’d be best if Israel makes the first move. “There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” said one of the people familiar with discussions.
B. ends his piece with the really important point...
Iran has promised to respond to any strike, be it by the U.S. or Israel, with severe retaliation strikes against both. Israel will not attack Iran without U.S support or knowledge nor would the U.S strike without warning Israel to get ready for a response.
It is thus doubtful that the question of who did the first strike on Iran, Israel or the U.S., would change the public perception of a new conflict.
Let’s put it this way— even a marginally effective Israeli strike is not possible without involving US assets —for example, US tanker and ISR support. That automatically would make the US a co-belligerent unless it denied Israel help.
Israel has its own tankers - albeit 60 years old and usable. It also has various workarounds for other deficiencies. And it has its own ISR and EW systems - a mix of resources that it claims enabled it to achieve air supremacy in the 12 Day War— except that that is fiction — most objective analysts believe they never attempted to enter Iranian airspace.
That means the Israelis could mount attacks, rely on the US media to portray those attacks as successful, and hope the US would join in.
But the US cannot enter the conflict without exposing its bases and naval assets and suffering unacceptable, if not catastrophic, casualties.
Both sides would be hurt badly, but the Iranians would not be severely depleted, let alone defeated, whereas the US would be hurt in a fashion it has not experienced in the memory of many people still alive — only to then look around and discover itself in a state of acute logistical crisis after only a fortnight of high-intensity combat operations. William Schryver, X
You can expect an all-out attack on Israel to target not only military bases but infrastructure – specifically electricity and water, as well as port facilities, in addition to Israeli assets in Lebanon.
Far better for the US to let Israel go it alone — wait for the smoke to clear and then “negotiate” a truce — between Iran and Israel — with compromises as a s result of a now much weakened Israel. It would have to accept most, if not al lIranian demands, including ending the war on Hezbollah and Gaza.
What was left of Israel would need a lot of economic help, and it would be much more compliant.
Is Trump that smart?
Are the people around him?
Would he be getting accurate information? Emperors are always naked
Larry Johnson makes the point that intelligence services are hobbled by peer-pressure and group-think, what the organizational theorist Alvesson calls “the Stupidity Paradox” which I explain in detail in articles for coffee buyers and elsewhere.
I think LJ wants to privatize the CIA. Would that help? LOL. Probably not.
In any case, the CIA is preparing PowerPoint presentations right now. The President likes pictures. He does’’t like reading.
“A good PowerPoint show turned a failed project into a success in the eyes of top management. As often is the case, senior executives had no knowledge or no real interest in what was really going on.”
― Mats Alvesson, The Stupidity Paradox: The Power and Pitfalls of Functional Stupidity at Work
That’s the issue with the Trump administration. No knowledge and no real interest in what is really going on.
In other words, the “talks” are going to go nowhere fast. That’s a problem for the Navy who needs toilets and drinking water. But it is fine for the Iranians who get extra time to integrate their air defense systems with Chinese and Russian systems and further develop their hypersonic missiles for maximum lethality.
ABOVE: The IRGC practiced missile strikes on a replica of the US Al Dhafra base in the UAE, which is home to 5,000 American troops. The missiles are equipped with new warheads that can penetrate bunkers.
The Iranians want to win without war.
But they have already tried a “soft” strategy in the 12 Day War. This time— no gloves, no rules, knowing Trump really cannot afford a ME War as the Midterms approach.
Some people think, as B suggests, that Netanyahu and his merry band of murderers may ignore military advice and strike at Iran, hoping for a retaliation that would draw the US into the war. As I said, that strike would have to be without American help, otherwise it would be too transparently manipulating US options
That idea could backfire, with much of Israel destroyed before the US could make a decision. By then, it would have few options other than to somehow get rid of Trump.
From my article on Stupidity reprinted variously.
This is a time of paradoxes. And stupidity. It is the age of the Stupidity Paradox.
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Iranians Commemorate the 47th Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution Image: Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
The United States has been determined to crush the Islamic Republic of Iran ever since a revolution brought it to power 47 years ago. In the 1980s the U.S. made Iraq’s president Saddam Hussein their proxy as he unleashed a war against Iran that killed an estimated 1 million people. The chemical weapons that the U.S. later used as a pretext for invasion and occupation of Iraq were actually used against Iran. The U.S. navy shot down an Iranian civilian airliner and killed 290 people in 1988. Vice President George H.W. Bush famously responded with these words. “I'll never apologize for the United States of America, ever. I don't care what the facts are. I’m not an apologize-for-America kind of guy.”
Warfare and terrorism was followed by years of sanctions and economic sabotage now culminating in a full-blown regime change effort as a buildup of military assets in the region continues. Fighter jets have been sent to U.S. military bases in client states, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, ships in the Persian Gulf, and an aircraft carrier group in the region, while another is en route.
Iran’s technological infrastructure has been deeply infiltrated by the U.S. and Israel and allows for psychological warfare to be added to the ships, planes, and bombs. Millions of people there received this anonymous text message, “The American president is a man of action. Wait.” The ability for Iran’s enemies to directly interact with the public is a very bad sign for the security of their people. The CIA acts both covertly as with the texts, and overtly, as it posted instructions on social media to those Iranians willing to undermine their state with a message written in Persian.
Yet no one knows what the impact of a U.S. attack will be. The so-called 12-day war with Israel in June 2025 proved that Iran was vulnerable but also that it had more military power than anticipated. The drive to attack Iran is bipartisan, with Democrats being largely silent because they are in agreement with Trump and the Republicans. They share the desire to destroy the Iranian state and put a compliant regime in place and/or to break it up into smaller regions which would also be obedient to the U.S. and to the West.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made seven trips to Washington ever since Donald Trump’s January 2025 inauguration. He wants to make sure that any questions about the feasibility of a strike are ignored in case Trump should get cold feet. A sane government would ask if the Iranian state has popular support and, regardless of whether it does or not, is the possible destruction of that state what the people there want? Would a decapitation strike on political and military leadership undo the revolution? Can a bombing campaign actually lead to a devastated government that could easily be overthrown? Americans should also ask how Iran is a threat to the US. All of these questions are logical and reasonable, but the U.S. and Israel believe that the time to strike is at hand and like George H.W. Bush, they are not interested in what the facts may indicate.
In all likelihood, Netanyahu has little reason to be worried about U.S. resolve. The plans for aggression are completely bipartisan. Trump and the Republican Party are not alone in pushing this scheme. Democrats make noises about wanting congressional authority before any attack takes place but few of them have said clearly that they are opposed to war. The only straightforward Democratic Party message is from those who oppose even the tepid War Powers Act resolution and who openly state their support for the regime change effort. Democratic leaders Senator Chuck Schumer and Congressman Hakeem Jeffries are trying to delay a vote on the resolution. They don’t want their members to go on record as supporting what their voters oppose. They hope that Trump starts a fight that voters don’t want but, in the process, helps them win the November mid-term elections.
The likelihood of success and examination of the forces supportive of aggression are important questions but they limit an important discussion that should be taking place more often. Where does the left stand on the issue of the regime change effort? In short, whose side are we on?
This moment is one that calls for an uncompromising anti-imperialist stance. There can be no waffling, fence sitting, or “both-sidesing.” The United States and Israel have no right to attack Iranian civilians, soldiers, or political and military leadership. Liberal arguments about supporting the people but not the state are gobbledegook, which makes the case for intervention, whether its proponents will admit their complicity or not.
The hostility towards Iran is unrelenting. Both Israel and the U.S. openly reveal what they are doing to undermine that nation. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has publicly confessed to the U.S. role in destabilizing Iran. Bessent first owned up to the U.S. role in creating economic havoc in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "President Trump ordered Treasury ... to put maximum pressure on Iran, and it's worked. Because in December, their economy collapsed. They are not able to get imports, and this is why the people took to the streets." He later gave congressional testimony and admitted to creating a dollar shortage in Iran. “The central bank had to print money, the Iranian currency went into free fall, inflation exploded.” While Bessent gave accounts of how the Trump administration created economic and social chaos, a former Trump official was also spilling the beans. Mike Pompeo served in the first Trump administration as CIA Director and Secretary of State. He bragged on social media, “Happy New Year to every Iranian in the streets. Also, to every Mossad agent walking beside them.”
While current and former high-ranking officials reveal how they are creating an environment to facilitate regime change, confused liberals wonder whether they should condemn the U.S. or spend their time railing against the Iranian government. As is usually the case, they are taken in by war propaganda which posits that women are treated badly and that protest isn’t allowed in Iran. They either don’t know or don’t care that most university students in Iran are women or that the initial protests after the economic collapse were met with discussions with the government, not with violent suppression.
They also don’t bother to educate themselves about the outright lies that are being told in western corporate media, such as reports of 30,000 people killed by that government. There is no rational explanation for a fashion blogger to suddenly become relied upon by media in the west. These so-called sources are agents of the west, backed by intelligence cut-outs USAID and the ironically named National Endowment for Democracy (NED).
The extent of U.S. involvement in what we're told is spontaneous popular action became clear in a congressional hearing. Damon Wilson, President and CEO of the NED revealed the extent of U.S. interference in what we're told was an uprising against a hated government. He testified that the U.S. "began supporting the deployment [and] operation of about 200 Starlinks early on.” Starlink was used by those Iranians who are working with Israel and the U.S. to communicate with their accomplices. Wilson's revelation risked upending war propaganda, and he was immediately told to be quiet. Congresswoman Lois Frankel, the ranking member of the House Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, told Wilson, “You know what, I’m going to interrupt you – we’d better not talk about it.”
Many people who ought to know better have fallen prey to propaganda, notions of western white supremacy, and beliefs in orientalism. These otherwise well-informed so-called leftists need little prompting to start questioning the Iranian government and joining in condemnation of non-existent oppressions. If they so chose, they could have honest discussions about Iran and the U.S. and determine which one was most oppressive.
Which country has more people imprisoned than any other? That would be the United States. Which country is holding immigrant children in jails across the country? Again, that would be the United States. Which country is bombing fishermen in the Caribbean to make the case for regime change in Venezuela? Well, that’s the United States. Which country provides the means to support Israeli apartheid and genocide. Of course, the United States is the perpetrator. Where do immigration enforcement agents shoot people to death in the street? That happens in the U.S. Which country’s constitution calls for support of all “oppressed people” and mandates support for Palestine in particular. The answer, of course, is Iran.
To be blunt, white supremacy infects the West to such a degree that there are very few people who are able to discern the most basic facts that might force them to be open-minded about their country and about others. Even so-called leftists believe that Iranians are backward people who need to be saved. They give them no credit for being able to practice self-determination and decide what sort of state they want to live in. They don’t even care that years of destabilization and war have limited the ability of Iranians to work for the changes they may want to see realized. In the final analysis, lazy liberalism and orientalism are as responsible for the crimes being planned against Iran as much as obedience to zionism and imperialism are.
The task of the left is to fight against U.S. imperialism and to denounce it in the strongest terms possible. The United States, with its dollar domination and military prowess, is the biggest danger to life on planet earth and the most likely to promote suppression of dissent within its borders and around the world. Believing that denunciation of Washington’s plans to destroy the Iranian must include criticism of Iran’s system is the height of arrogance and ignorance.
An Iran free of threats from the west will be best able to determine its future. In any case, western liberals should be minding their own business and should be figuring out how to fight an increasingly autocratic U.S. The armchair “both-siders” are a threat to the people of Iran. Anyone who claims to care about them must stand firmly on the side of the Islamic Republic of Iran. That state is able to withstand U.S. sanctions and wars and provides needed multipolarity and that is why democrats and republicans alike want to destroy it. Wishy and washy fence sitters can help no one and, even if they are doing so inadvertently, provide succor to Trump as he plans to kill thousands of people. There is no choice. Anyone calling themselves anti-war, pro-peace, or anti-imperialist should be standing with Iran.
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Carry on Donald
Things are not going Trump’s way.
The Supreme Court just denied him the power to conduct tariff wars, prompting him to declare a universal 15% tariff although this must be renewed by Congress after 150 days and there are exemptions for something that the US needs.
In any case, tariffs of any kind are not good for a US economy of course that doesn'’t make much itself anymore...
Consider an average tax increase of $1,300 to $1,600 per U.S. household in 2026.
The tariffs will drive inflation roughly one percentage point higher, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
As a result, U..S. GDP will fall by up to 0.8% and 436,000 full-time equivalent jobs will be lost. Those are guesstimates, of course.
In the meantime, US trading partners are increasingly looking elsewhere – to China.
Trump’s tantrum after the Court decision did not go over well in the US.

The obviously "Leftist” Wall Street Journal editorial called Trump’s response “ugly even by Mr. Trump’s standards” and the “worst moment of his presidency”. 60% of Americans approved the Supreme Court decision.
Let’s not even get into ICE’s war on Americans. Seems the total number of American citizens gunned down is now 3.
How do you say “farce” in Farsi. You say Trump.
It is very clear that Russia and China see the possibility of an attack on Iran as an existential threat to them as well – and also to BRICS. They are increasing both military and economic support. As Pepe Escobar says, "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” . Actually, I think that was Napoleon who said that first.
The Gulf States, fearing their own populations as much as Iranian missile strikes, are denying the US the use of their bases.
In Syria, the US has managed to alienate Shi’a Iraq even more by moving 7000 members of ISIS to northeastern Iraq. It has also betrayed the Kurds. Trump is decidedly unpopular.
The Pentagon has proudly stated that Iran is no match for American technology and its F16s and Reaper drones equipped with the “AI driven” EW Angry Kitten pod which the US has been developing since… um…. 2013. “AI”….?

Didn’t help the F16s in Ukraine, if they had them or the drones that the Houthis downed. I am sure the Americans will deny using these pods in either theatre.
Hey, it’s “AI” right? The very latest update. Hope it works better than a Windows 11 update. .
Russians are getting restive. . Russia has sent a tanker carrying 200,000 barrels of oil to Cuba. It has Yasen class submarines in the Caribbean— although no angry kittens.

A senior Russian official has said Moscow could deploy its navy to protect Russian-linked vessels from potential European seizures, raising the prospect of retaliatory action against European shipping as pressure on the Kremlin’s so-called shadow fleet intensifies.
Nikolai Patrushev, a former FSB director who heads Russia’s maritime board, said on Tuesday that the country’s navy should be ready to counter what he described as “western piracy”.
“If this situation cannot be resolved peacefully, the navy will break any blockade and move to eliminate it. And let’s not forget that many vessels sail the seas under European flags – we, too, may take an interest in what they are carrying and where they are headed”
In the SMO, Russian troops just keep on truckin’ — they are now on the outskirts of Zaporozhye City . But public opinion in Russia is increasingly demanding a much harder line — that Russia take control of the Black Sea Coast and Kiev as well and screw NATO in the Baltic.
While Trump continues to insist Russia is falling apart, industry and the economy have been developing rapidly in the oblasts that joined Russia while Western Ukraine sinks into death and corruption.
And soon the State of the Onion address. What will Trump say?
Let’s face it — onions stink.

A REAL Angry Kitten

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Special Additional Feature:
I am not one of those who think that the US will go to war just because the US has assembled a moderately capable strike force. Notice that I said “moderately” capable. Because it is not enough.
Yes, TWO aircraft carriers – just like with the Houthis. And Washington has beefed up the USAF in the region, from its usual token presence — “token” considering the size of the region.
The US had about 60 to 100 aircraft on station, not counting about 300 Israeli aircraft — compared to 217 in Europe which are backed up by 1800 NATO combat aircraft!
Now, with two carrier groups with a total of 170 on board, the number is 500. (see jpg.)
a.) vulnerable bases
b.) use of carrier groups, which are also vulnerable.
Attacks en masse lead to casualties en masse—unless your side has overwhelming advantage as was the case in 2003.
Is this enough?
For example, the Israeli narrative is that they destroyed 50% of Iran’s launchers — which is highly doubtful since that should have been enough to let them venture into Iranian airspace which they did not do. In the first two days, they damaged some launchers with local terrorist and drone attacks, although no one really knows how many — and we have no idea how many were damaged after that.
LLMs will tell you that Iran has still not recovered from its “losses” in the 12 Day War”, assuming I suppose that they are as slow as American industry is in replenishing weapons. Estimates are all over the map.
As of February this year, estimates of ballistic missiles range from 1500 to 3000. But the same sources say 5000 by 2027! Which is 2000 in less than a year.
Before the 12 Day War Iran was said to have up to 3000 missiles, which were “reduced by half” by Israeli defenses. However, Iran was also said to have fired 500 ballistic missiles (mostly old stuff) and 1000 suicide drones. 500 is not half of 3000 . I think. As you know, I am really BAD at arithmetic.
The Israelis say they destroyed about 1000 ballistic missiles inside Iran but there appears to be no proof of that. And Iran says they destroyed only about 3% of its launchers.
You will get all these contradictions if you poke your LLM enough.
William Schryver writes;
Iran did NOT expend most of its BM inventory in the 12-Day War. They averaged ~30 ballistic missiles fired per day.
Iran reportedly produces 300 ballistic missiles per month, and its inventory is very likely >20k.
Putting all that aside, the number of air defense units available now should be considerably in excess of what the Iranians had before the 12 Day War — and naturally more upgraded and more effective. Iran now has an estimated 80,000 drones as well.
As for air defense units Iranian AD units are mobile, hard to track and hard to hit. The Israelis claim to have killed half of them. Also their radars.
The question remains— why couldn’t the Israelis penetrate Iranian airspace?.
But all these incongruities suggest to me that this war, if it happens, will be very different from the 12 Day War:
the US and Israel overhype their capabilities
the US could lose a lot of aircraft if they tried to get within 400 km of their targets in Iran.
In 2003, the American coalition had over 1800 aircraft and over 200 ships including 5 carrier groups.
And Iran is a lot stronger than Iraq ever was.
It has a larger population and is less exposed geographically, with a larger area and lots of mountains to hide missile bases in.

Compare that to the much smaller Iraq…

Iraq (corrected thanks to comments)
Iran has solid support from Russia and China, which was not the case for Iraq.
Most important of all, Iran has a much more competent military with advanced technical abilities which are improving fast— rather than degrading as was the case with the Iraqi military, which was in no way a peer adversary for the US.
Let’s just say that US assets are not sufficient to ensure easy victory.
Scott Ritter, whom I wrote about yesterday, is just one of many who seems to think the US will attack and prevail. Why? Because it has been preparing for conventional global war since WWII.
“Global war” is “World War” and that means nukes. The US has the second most powerful nuclear military, inferior to the Russians in the number of warheads and also delivery systems, and lacking innovative weapons like Oreshnik, Burevestnik or Poseidon. It lacks hypersonic capabilities or defensive capabilities such as the S500.
The US could not possibly face Russia and China together.
Remember 1939. France and the UK had a numerical advantage over Germany. They were overconfident and they paid for it. In addition, their militaries were envisioning something like WWI. The Germans were innovating a new kind of war, with new weapons and tactics.
I do not think the US will go to war with Iran. Trump is not doing well politically in the US and, as Larry Johnson points out….
JCS Chairman Caine and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of CENTCOM, have warned the President that there is a high likelihood that there would be US casualties when the US attacks.
I agree. A war with Iran would be the end of his career, if only for demonstrating the lie of America as No.1 militarily and humiliating the nation even further than he has already done.
So, Trump will stretch out the talks. He has postponed military action 10 days. After ten days, he will say, “We are making progress”. No doubt he will say something like that in his State of Union Address is coming up Feb 24. Not to worry, ‘we are talking”. At that time, it is far better to insist that he is focusing on negotiations, not war.
And finally: “The Iranians have promised not to get the Bomb! I have saved the world!” (Again!)
Of course, the Iranians have already said that the Bomb is “haram” –forbidden. So adding a “promise” on top is just a cherry on the cake.
That’s a good thing for the US ultimately because, without the religious injunction, Tehran could have nuclear weapons in a few months.
Iran is Shi’a . If the Americans won, the Shi’a would not disappear.
Religion would still matter. Yes, Iran is multi-ethnic. But up to 95% of the population is Shi’a. Ethnicities are represented in parliament but it is religion that holds the state together. Despite American efforts to destabilize the government, it is the Supreme Leader who is, yes, “Supreme”, which is why the population is rallying behind Khamenei now.
Khamenei is not in hiding by the way. He is not afraid to be a martyr.
PS
Thanks to comments I corrected yesterday’s post. Tomahawks can not be air-launched as Ritter seemed to be saying.
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