A. KORYBKO—Françafrique is more fragile than ever before, after Russia’s “Democratic Security” successes in the Central African Republic, the reported battlefield death of Chad’s long-serving French-allied leader earlier this year, and the coup that shortly thereafter followed in Mali which prompted Paris to reform its regional anti-terrorist campaign that some suspect is being exploited to perpetuate its influence across the Sahel. Viewed from this perspective, France certainly has a strategic interest in restrengthening Françafrique by having one of the highly trained soldiers that used to work for it carry out a coup against Guinea’s Russian-friendly leader who was already credibly regarded as a regime change target for the past two years due to the media’s smear campaign.
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PEPE ESCOBAR—Beijing for its part is focused on increasing its connectivity with Iran via what could be described as a Persian-colored corridor incorporating Tajikistan and Afghanistan. That will depend, once again, on the degree of Taliban control.
But Beijing can count on an embarrassment of riches: Plan A, after all, is an extended China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with Afghanistan annexed, whoever is in power in Kabul.
What’s clear is that the extended troika will not be shaping the most intricate details of the future of Eurasia integration. That will be up to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Russia, China, Pakistan, India, the Central Asian “stans” and Iran and Afghanistan as current observers and future full-members.
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BATKO MILACIC—Turkey, no matter how economically weaker than the United States, has shown that it is not a small nation that a “big boss” can discipline simply as it has in some other periods of history. The example of Turkish resistance to subordinate its policy to Washington interests is becoming dangerous, because the Turkish example of sovereignty of foreign policy and rebellion within the NATO pact can be followed by others.
Turkish nationalism got a new impetus by merging what previously seemed incompatible, and that is the greatest merit of US politics. With the failed Gulenist coup against Erdogan, Washington showed that it tried to treat this great nation as Haiti, which awakened Turkish national pride and opened the biggest gap in relations with the United States so far.
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BILL VAN AUKEN—Moïse was shot dead at 1 a.m. by a commando squad armed with military-grade assault rifles. His wife, severely wounded, was flown via air ambulance to a trauma center in Florida. According to witnesses and an audio recording of the raid, the members of the death squad spoke English and Spanish.
Sustained gunfire was preceded by one of the members of the squad shouting out in American southern-accented English, “DEA operation! Everybody back up, stand down!”, an apparent ruse aimed at identifying the gunmen as members of the US Drug Enforcement Administration.
The US State Department issued a denial that the assassins were American agents.