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Patrick Henningsen: Naval Siege—>Houthis Force 10+ Saudi Tankers to Turn Back After Ballistic Strikes

A masterful explanation of US deceitful maneuvers in West Asia

by Patrick Henningsen
written by Patrick Henningsen Updated by Bergeracpas Approx. 54 Mins. • Watch / read
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Patrick Henningsen: Naval Siege—>Houthis Force 10+ Saudi Tankers to Turn Back After Ballistic Strikes

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Geopolitical Dynamics in the Middle East: US, Iran, Yemen, and Regional Actors

Oil Price Surge & Regional Tensions
  • Oil prices recently surpassed $100 per barrel, driven by escalating conflicts in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea regions.
  • The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint experiencing military pressure, including US strikes on southern Iran.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait near Yemen is under siege by Houthi forces, disrupting maritime trade routes and increasing oil market volatility.
  • Kuwait’s eastern border with Iraq was attacked by Iranian UAVs, signaling the widening scope of regional hostilities.
US-Iran Relations and the Strait of Hormuz
  • The US accuses Iran of aggressive actions, including attacks on tankers and disruption of shipping lanes.
  • The US strategy focuses on degrading Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz through targeted strikes on radar and military infrastructure.
  • Despite claims of peace talks, the US continues military operations and requests a 60-day congressional rollover to sustain military engagement.
  • The US appears to use political theater and media manipulation to justify its actions and maintain public support, especially ahead of midterm elections.
  • The US violates multiple clauses of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) by undermining Iran’s legitimate control of the straits and freezing Iranian assets.
Yemen Conflict & Saudi-US Alliance
  • Yemen’s Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) are actively blockading Saudi Arabia, attacking oil tankers, and threatening key maritime routes.
  • Saudi Arabia resumed hostilities after a relative armistice since 2023, reportedly under US pressure to maintain control over Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
  • The Yemen war began in 2015 as a US proxy conflict, with Saudi Arabia and UAE as local enforcers, aiming to partition Yemen and counter Iranian influence.
  • The conflict has prolonged well beyond initial expectations, with increased Houthi popularity and control complicating peace prospects.
  • Pakistan’s potential involvement is uncertain and linked to its need for a $10 billion economic bailout from the US.
  • The US-Saudi nuclear cooperation deal is conditioned on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords (normalization with Israel), which Saudi Arabia resists due to the unresolved Palestinian issue.
Israel and Regional Security Concerns
  • Israel maintains a posture of preparedness for any Iranian attack, threatening massive retaliation despite no concrete Iranian offensive.
  • Jordan plays a strategic role as Israel’s de facto anti-air defense shield, but its regime is unpopular and fragile, with a large Palestinian population.
  • Iranian strikes on US and allied targets in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain reveal vulnerabilities due to weak air defense systems.
  • The US uses Jordan as a critical base but faces risks if Jordan’s stability deteriorates.
  • US military presence in Israel is significant, including air-to-air refueling tankers at civilian airports, highlighting the intensity of regional militarization.
Iraq’s Strategic Position and US Leverage
  • Iraq remains pivotal due to its geographic position and control of airspace between Iran and the broader region.
  • The US exerts economic control over Iraq via the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, managing Iraqi oil revenues and influencing political decisions.
  • Iraqi public sentiment favors US withdrawal and an independent foreign policy, but leadership is constrained by economic and political pressures.
  • The US attempts to disarm resistance groups in Iraq, paralleling efforts against Hamas and Hezbollah, but these efforts face strong local opposition and are unlikely to succeed.
US Political and Military Strategy
  • The Trump administration’s Middle East policy is characterized by tactical maneuvers rather than coherent long-term strategy.
  • Military operations are expected to continue intermittently with occasional theatrical ceasefires and escalations timed around US political cycles.
  • Potential short-term ground incursions into Iranian-controlled islands may be staged for domestic political gains.
  • US media pundits supporting military escalation often have defense industry ties, influencing public discourse.
  • The US aims to remove Iran’s leverage over straits controlling global oil shipments, using regional proxies and alliances to maintain pressure.
  • The US is strained by multiple regional conflicts and faces challenges similar to historical empires unable to manage widespread engagements.
Nuclear Deal Complexities
  • The 30-year US-Saudi civil nuclear deal is limited to peaceful uses but hinges on Saudi normalization with Israel.
  • If Saudi Arabia achieves uranium enrichment capabilities, it could create regional nuclear parity with Iran, complicating non-proliferation efforts.
  • The deal’s terms and regional politics reflect transactional diplomacy with shifting conditions, particularly from the US side.
Broader Regional Implications
  • The ongoing conflicts exacerbate instability in Lebanon, Syria, and the wider Middle East.
  • US attempts at “offshore balancing” rely heavily on local allies like Saudi Arabia but face limitations due to declining US influence and regional complexities.
  • The rising influence of Iran-backed militias and resistance movements challenges US and Israeli regional dominance.
  • The geopolitical environment is marked by overlapping crises, economic sanctions, military confrontations, and fragile peace efforts.

Summary & Key Takeaways

  • Oil chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb) are flashpoints for escalating conflict, impacting global oil prices and trade.
  • The US employs a mix of military pressure and political theater to contain Iran, using proxy conflicts (Yemen) and regional alliances.
  • Yemen’s conflict remains a prolonged proxy war with deep-rooted regional and international involvement; recent escalations threaten maritime trade.
  • Israel relies heavily on Jordan for strategic depth, but Jordan’s internal instability and large Palestinian population pose risks.
  • Iraq is a crucial yet constrained player due to US economic leverage and internal political divisions.
  • US strategy is fragmented and tactical, focused on short-term gains aligned with domestic political cycles rather than comprehensive peace.
  • The US-Saudi nuclear deal and normalization with Israel are intertwined, complicating Middle Eastern nuclear politics.
  • Regional actors like Iran and the Houthis leverage maritime control to pressure Saudi Arabia and the US.
  • The US faces historic challenges in managing its extensive Middle East engagements, reminiscent of past imperial overstretch.
  • Efforts to disarm regional resistance movements are unlikely to succeed, given local political realities and popular support.

This overview reflects the complex, multi-layered nature of Middle East geopolitics in 2026, underscoring the interplay of energy, military strategy, diplomacy, and regional power struggles.

 

Award-winning journalist, broadcaster, geopolitical analyst, founder of news site 21st Century Wire, host Sunday Wire Show & co-anchor UK Column News. MA in International Relations from University of Plymouth, UK.

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