To review:
Depending on context, these statements usually signify desperation on Trump’s part. Over the last few days we’ve been seeing reports that Trump is seeking a new ceasefire—a ten day one—with Iran, using intermediaries like Qatar and Pakistan (probably an intermediary to China, as well). Iran just kept hitting US bases, so Trump escalated big time—he shut down satellite imagery for the Gulf region. That didn’t phase Iran either, and they rejected any ceasefire. Trump sent Little Marco to warn Russia and China to stop helping Iran—it’s so unfair! Russia and China flipped him off. Finally, on Friday, Trump unilaterally stopped attacking Iran. So, overnight, the Houthis hit Saudi energy facilities, to add to the blockade.
Trump is still trying to gaslight the American public, but he’s not fooling the people who really control events:
Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape
4h
The Titanic of U.S. diplomacy is hitting the Iran iceberg
Trump’s MoU diplomacy was a “wicked escalation trap”—trying to buy off a regime with $12B when power, not cash, is Iran’s goal
With the truce broken, shipping choked, Washington faces 1 choice to avoid major war: real concessions.
Those are the basic dynamics for the losing side in a war. But it’s worse, because nobody can trust Trump.
Krystal Ball @krystalball
Weird. Maybe we shouldn’t have murdered his dad.
Julian E. Barnes @julianbarnes
Jul 24
New: U.S. believes Motjaba Khamanei is far more interested than his father and predecessor in pursuing a nuclear weapon, according to officials briefed on the intelligence assessments.
The result is that there’s a sort of escalation ladder when it comes to trying to entice Iran back to talking. I think it was Chas Freeman the other day who suggested that Trump might have to turn over Iran’s money up front, no conditions, before he can get talks. Here’s a report on how Trump is trying to sweeten things:
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
5h
BREAKING: The United States has requested a new temporary ceasefire with Iran and is seeking a return to the collapsed and suspended Memorandum of Understanding, with discussions also expected to include Yemen and Trump seeking to make the Houthis part of it, per sources.
Iran is highly unlikely to accept the US offer, having comprehensively rejected all negotiations throughout this week and confirmed it won’t start negotiations under any circumstances, while Trump simultaneously announced the US is about to carry out a ‘massive attack’ on Iran ‘bigger than any attack ever carried out before.‘
Return to the MOU that Trump never complied with? And isn’t that rich that Trump wants to include Yemen as a topic in talks? What about Lebanon?
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
58m
BREAKING: Trump ordered the US military not to carry out new strikes on Iran Friday night, despite approving his announced “massive attack,” now believing an agreement is possible over the weekend, per Axios.
The cancellation came despite Iran comprehensively rejecting any negotiations with the US throughout this week and confirming it is not talking to the US under any circumstances, and came directly after Trump claimed Iran is talking to the US and that major progress is being made.
The decision also followed an Omani delegation arriving in Tehran for talks on a new arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump claiming additional progress there, though Iran denies any talks are taking place.
Additionally, a source close to Iran’s Ghalibaf assesses the operational silence of the past 15 hours as a prelude to an intensification of attacks and not a new attempt at negotiations, with the US military still preparing plans for a return to major combat operations.
The reality is that Trump is facing huge pressure on the economic front—as well as on the military front. The US is not only expending hard to replace (in any timely way) munitions, it is also losing other expensive and hard to replace—if at all—assets.
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
Jordan is the key, the last & most important layer defending Israel.
The increasing rate of direct hits is a direct result of Radars & other U.S. equipment destroyed in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar ... added to the depletion of air defense interceptors, something that couldn’t have been achieved in a few days.
During 20 years CENTCOM turned Arab countries into a dome protecting Israel, and Iran is now methodically dismantling it.
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
2h
“Trump ordered military not to conduct strikes on Friday.”
After striking the same positions for 14 days, wasting hundreds of PAC-2/3 interceptors, losing military equipment on several bases, Oil to $100, looks like Trump was well advised.
How long before a deal is announced ?
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
> Critical shortages of long-range weapons & interceptors.
> Many long-range radars damaged.
> Iran will retaliate proportionally to any escalation.
Curious what top advisers will tell Trump…
Quote
Clash Report @clashreport
Jul 24
Trump met with top advisers on Friday to consider expanding U.S. military action against Iran.
Source: NYT
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
3h
“Iran Destroyed 11 American Fighter Jets and Helicopters on the ground(from July 8th to July 21st),” – IRGC Spokesperson to Tasnim.
“In the Iranian attacks, 17 reconnaissance and operational drones (type MQ9, 8 of which were brand new), one F-15 fighter jet inside a hangar, one P-8 aircraft, one C-17 transport aircraft, and 8 refueling aircraft were also destroyed.”
Those are significant losses. These reports are per the IRGC, which is probably a more reliable source than CENTCOM:
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
2h
 IRGC Spokesperson provided a list of “Very Heavy Damages” suffered by the US military following Iranian Attacks over a 15-day period (from July 8th to July 21st),
• In the radar and air defense sector:
7 x Command and Control centers
3 x Satellite communication systems
6 x Patriot air defense radar systems
3 x air and sea control and monitoring radars
8 x early warning radar systems
7 x air-based missile defense radars
3 x FPS radar systems
2 x AN/FPS-117 radars
5 x Long-Range radars
2 x Air defense radars
1 x Tactical radar unit
• In the support and logistics sector, aimed at reducing operational capabilities:
6 x Fighter jet and helicopter maintenance centers
3 x Support and logistics centers
12 x Fuel storage
17 x Ammunition and spare parts depots for ships and aircraft
6 x Missile storage facilities
 In the operational infrastructure sector:
6 x MQ-9 drone hangars
1 x F-15 fighter jet preparation hangar
1 x Drone hangar containing 8 brand new drones
2 x Command centers
1 x Aircraft carrier refueling platform
1 x P-8 aircraft hangar
4 x HIMARS missile platforms
5 x Fighter jet hangars
4 x Patriot air defense complexes
6 x Missile launch platforms
1 x Fuel pumping station
2 x Signal communication centers
1 x intelligence data center
1 x AI center, a data processing base belonging to Amazon
1 x remote-controlled vessel (RCV) depot
1 x fuel dock
4 x fighter jet shelters
6 x flight ramps and parking areas
• In the air operations sector:
11 x Fighter Jets and helicopters (on the ground)
17 x reconnaissance and operational drones (8 of which were brand new)
1 x F-15E fighter jet inside a hangar
1 x P-8A Poseidon aircraft
1 x C-17A transport aircraft
8 x Refueling aircraft
4 x Heavy helicopters
6 x Missile storage
