Julian Macfarlane
NEWS FORENSICS
The "First World War" was coined in September 1918 by British Lieutenant Colonel Charles A. Court Repington in his diaries,but his war was just the “Great War” term until September 1939 when war with Germany started again and Time Magazine needed something catchy. The term did not become “official” in the US until the war as over.
Early British tank, WWI
WWI was a war not involving the whole world —just most of Europe. WWII was more extensive since it included the Asia and the Pacific. Its fundamental difference. however, lay in technologies and systems.
WW2 carrier fleet
WWIII began with the US attempt to dominate the world, after the collapse of the USSR, first covertly supporting the Chechen War in Russia and after that failed, by trying to exploit Georgian ambitions in the Caucasus.
Then came Libya, Syria, the Ukraine, Yemen.
So many battlefields. But each of these wars was a proxy war, with very few American boots on the ground.
WWIII escalation
OSINT “sources”, two-thirds of which are possibly CIA/ MI6/ MOSSAD plants, say Trump is going to go “all-out”, despite US weapons inventories so alarmingly low and the threat of economic collapse .
Those “sources” point to over a 100 tanker aircraft now in Israel along with F16s and F35s from Europe.
US Tankers in Israel
That looks baaaaaaaaaaaaadd, right?
Just inane and insane.
In fact, that is the same number of tankers as Trump fielded at the start of Operation Epic Fury – or was it Epic Furry? – but with an important difference – when Trump attacked Iran earlier this year, most of the tankers used for the aerial assaults were in GCC countries.
At that time, only 40 (at most) were based in Israel.
Now there are none in the KSA and UAE, who, however, are maintaining Airbus A330 MRTT fleets— for combat air defense (CAP) patrols. These could also be used by US or Israeli forces, but if they were, the Iranians would know. The KSA and UAE would become co-belligerents, and might end up with them ceasing to exist in their present form.
In the meantime, Iran has upgraded its defenses significantly, integrating its S300, S400, HQ9, and Bavar AD missile systems and radars as well as electro optical and EW systems for dealing with stealth weapons.
The official American narrative is that the US destroyed all these defenses; the reality is that Iran’s air defense is at least two grades better.
Should the US attack therefore it must do so from Israel, which will make surprise difficult and offer all sorts of tactical advantages to Iran.
Now we know why Iran has been holding its fire on Israel! It seems to have anticipated the US and Israel trying again and it was building up its forces to launch devastating strikes. Two birds with one missile.
Yes, the US and Israel can hurt Iran but, in the final analysis, Iran can do much more serious long-term damage to them.
What if the US or Israel use nukes?
As it happens, some OSINT sources, building on the US and Israeli story that Iran has been working on nukes all this while are spreading the story that Iran already has nuclear weapons!
If so, it obviously would have effective delivery systems for them and you could say goodbye to Tel Aviv and the US carrier fleet.
But I think the story is just a story — a deterrent right now: no one can really know whether Iran has nukes or not - only that it has the capability to make them and the fatwa prohibiting them is no longer strictly in force.
In any case, Trump may attempt his “all-out” war anyway. In that case, the Houthis will shut down Bab el Mandeb and Yanbu port. Oil prices will surge above $130. The US economy melts down. Goodbye Kuwait. Goodbye UAE. Goodbye MBS.
But remember -the US war on Iran is just one battlefield in what I and Brian Berletic characterize as WWIII.
Switch channel.
The European Front
Tanker hit in the Black Sea
At the same time, Russia is getting tough with Ukraine, stepping up its attacks in the Black Sea area, not only to cut Kievan supply lines but to send a message to Bulgaria and Romania and (land locked) Moldova which OSINT sources rumor to have designs on the Black Sea—to forget it.
Since these countries are highly polarized with significant nationalist, anti-Eu anti-NATO populations, so it will not take much to dissuade them from provoking the Bear. But it is also a good excuse for Russia to reassert itself in the Black Sea.
That also sends a message to the US, UK and France that the Montreux Convention restricting military use of the Bosphorus is still in force. It Turkiye doesn’t enforce it , Russia will.
At the same time, Putin has responded to Kievan terror tactics rationally and proportionately with massive strikes on military industrial facilities in Kiev where Zelensky thought he could hide them in civilian structures —at the same time taking advantage of the city’s water and energy resources.
Zelensky will survive. Will Kiev?
Without critical infrastructure Kiev will not to be able to support its population of just under 3 million, down from 3.5 million before the war, and heavily concentrated in the city center.
Demography matters
The total population of Western Ukraine is about 9.5 million including about 1 million urbanized Kievans who had thought to resettle Russian Ukraine after 2014, with up to 3 million Russian Ukrainians forced to flee to Russia.
Since 2022, however, many of these people have returned to Western Ukraine. There were opportunities there, too. 5 million Ukrainians had moved to the EU, Canada, and the US—some for political reasons—some taking advantage of economic opportunities conferred by favorable immigration policies and support.They are unlikely to return.
It is hard to calculate the exact population for Western Ukraine obviously, and complicating matters are the some 1.5 million KIA. All you can say is that Western Ukraine is a shell of what it once was.
As its population drops, it becomes more manageable politically. It is already culturally Russian.
So, in the end, if the Russians want to take over completely after purging the NeoNazis, it might not be as difficult as some say. And that will be a major defeat for the US, UK, France and Germany.
Another battlefield: Economics.
The Tariffs on Brazil:
A 25% tariff on most Brazilian exports— targeting apparel, steel, sugar, and paper. as punishment for Brazil’s digital-payment system (Pix),
deforestation, and its refusal to cooperate with U.S. tech platforms on preventing “misinformation” by “foreign” entities.
The U.S. Senate’s wants to impose high tariffs on third-party buyers of Russian oil and gas directly target major BRICS consumers like China and India.
The U.S. is aggressively threatening to jack up tariffs on Canada over Canadian wildfires.
The Canucks apparently don’t know who’s boss.
As Bryan Adams, who went to my high school, sings…..
Foo argues that these punitive measures will severely disrupt globalized supply chains and inflate input costs for American manufacturers who rely on imported components.
By alienating both BRICS giants and traditional close allies like Canada, the U.S. is inadvertently forcing these nations to fast-track alternative payment grids and local-currency trade, fundamentally weakening the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.
If the US finds itself economically isolated, its super-financialized economy will fail. Paper is fragile.
All wars end. The US war on the world will too.
My world….
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