ANALYSIS BY:
Nima Alkhorshid • Lt Col. Anthony Aguilar • Gary Olson
This video features a conversation between host Nima Al-Khorshid and Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar (0:13) regarding escalating military tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Saudi Arabia.
Key discussion points include:
- Iranian Attacks on US Bases: Aguilar analyzes reports of Iranian missile strikes in Jordan, claiming the damage to US aircraft, such as the A-10 Thunderbolt and F-15s, is likely more extensive than publicly stated (0:23 - 4:30).
- Maritime Conflict: The discussion covers the ongoing kinetic war in the Strait of Hormuz, noting the use of autonomous underwater and surface vehicles for reconnaissance as the US Navystruggles with logistics after abandoning facilities in Bahrain (9:02 - 15:32, 31:45 - 36:36).
- Yemen Offensive: Ansar Allah (Houthis) have secured significant territorial gains along the Yemen coastline, which Aguilar argues gives them strategic control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait. He suggests this, combined with US advisory involvement, risks expanding the conflict into a broader regional war (16:44 - 25:41).
- Political Context: The speakers touch upon Donald Trump'srhetoric regarding the midterm elections and his claims that the conflict will be resolved shortly thereafter, which Aguilar criticizes as disconnected from the military realities on the ground (15:34- 16:39, 49:00 - 51:48).
Desperate MBS Calls Trump and Urges Him to Attack Ansarallah.
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) wants Trump to begin strikes against rapidly advancing Ansarallah (mistakenly called Houthis) forces but, for now, Trump has rejected the request. Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command rushed to Saudi Arabia on Thursday after Ansarallah seized the Yemeni port city of Mokha. The Pentagon has stationed 200 advisers in the country to provide geospatial data to locate potential targets. (Some of us recall JFK sending 400 Green Beret “Special Advisers” to Vietnam in May, 1961) In any case, the US is now involved in three wars: Yemen, Iran and Ukraine.This morning (Friday) Ansarallah took the island of Maygun which is located in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This further solidifies their control of a second critical chokepoint on the Red Sea. If Saudi Arabia can’t export oil, other princes in the country may move against MBS.
On Friday, oil prices surged above $107 a barrel, a 48 percent increase since the start of the war in Iran. U.S gas prices rose to a national average of $4.28 a gallon, a 44 percent increase. More critically, “America runs on four wheels” and the price of diesel climbed to $5.98 a gallon, up 59 percent since the war began. We can also expect the price of airline tickets to rise substantially in the near future.
Note: U.S. airstrikes against Ansarallah, from 2023 to 2025 killed 213 civilians. This is from a report released by the Costs of War Project at Brown University. The strikes began under Biden and continued under Trump. On April 17, 2025, U.S. forces killed 80 civilians in an attack on Ansarallah territory in Hudaydah. In another attack, two weeks later, U.S. forces killed 68 civilians. The Costs of War Project consists of scholars who research the the consequences of Wars launched by the U.S. since 9/11. According the report, the Pentagon has launched 903 airstrikes in Yemen between Dec.18, 2023 to January, 2025.
