Gen. Qasem Soleimani (3 Mar 1957—2 Jan 2020)

Dear friends,

[dropcap]I [/dropcap]just got home and saw the news that General Qasem Soleimani has been murdered along with another 5-8 people by what was initially reported as a MRL strike (Russian sources say it was a drone attack).  This was bad enough.  Then this:

The Telegram channel of RIA News reports that the US has claimed that it was responsible for that attack.

So far, PressTV has NOT confirmed the death of Soleimani but other media outlets have.

IF he is really dead, then the likely scenario is the following one:

BEGIN 100% SPECULATION
Trump threatened Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that there is nothing the US could do, and just to prove him wrong, the US murdered Soleimani.  Of course, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meant that there is nothing *effective* which the US could do.  He clearly did not have a cowardly assassination in mind.  As for Uncle Shmuel, he now can see that he “showed the Ayatollahs” how invincible the Empire is.  And to hell with the consequences (already started).
END 100% SPECULATION.

Now back to the attack itself.

Frankly, I was hoping that Trump and/or Netanyahu had enough brains NOT to claim the attack, whether they did it or not.  And, sure enough, it now appears that the US did make that claim.

Now there is only one question left: can the Iranians let this murder go unpunished?

Maybe.  But I can’t imagine that they will.

Next, no matter HOW the Iranians retaliate, the US will use that as a pretext to attack Iran.

Right now, it is 01:46 GMT and it is much too early to call this as many of the key facts are missing.

Still, considering the little we know I see no other option that the warn you all that we might have a war in the Middle-East literally any minute now.
I will try to scout the news for any info.
If you see anything interesting please post the info in the comments section (including the source).  I ESPECIALLY need to see if the US OFFICIALLY confirms that it is behind the attack.

General Qasem Soleimani was a true hero, and he was my “Saker Man of the Year” in 2015.  This is truly a major loss for all freedom loving people.  May God rest his soul!

I will be back later tonight.

The Saker

UPDATE1: this is all PressTV is reporting now: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/03/615224/Hashd-Sha%E2%80%99abi-public-relations-director-killed-in-rocket-attack-on-Baghdad-airport
UPDATE2: Iraqi TV confirms the death https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/01/03/iraq-rockets-fired-at-baghdad-airport-7-people-killed/
UPDATE3: PressTV live confirms the death of the general https://www.presstv.com/Live
UPDATE4: The Donald just posted this on Twitter: it’s as good as any confirmation

UPDATE5: so now it is confirmed, see for yourself: https://www.rt.com/news/477354-pentagon-confirms-soleimani-killing/ (if these cretins really believe that they can “deter” Iran, they are even dumber than I thought)

UPDATE6: according to this source, this is an email from the Pentagon “At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization,” the Department of Defense said in an emailed statement.“
UPDATE7: seems like the US is now trying to scare the personnel of the Iranian embassy in Baghdad, see here: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/02/615194/Iraq-United-States-helicopter-Iran-Embassy-Baghdad
TEMPORARY CONCLUSION:

Okay, we now know that Soleimani has indeed been murdered and that the US did it.  So the key facts are all in.  Now all we can do is to wait for the political fallout from this assassination (both inside and outside the USA and both inside and outside Iran).

Let me state here that I do NOT believe that Russia will be involved in any way.  Neither will China.  Why?  Because now everything hinges on the Iranian reaction.  I will try to produce an analysis in the course of the day tomorrow.

If you have any relevant/interesting info, please post it in the comments section below.  I will read it before I write my analysis.  Right now, I would say that war is about 80% certain, with 20% left for two reasons: first, the Iranians are extremely sophisticated actors who will do nothing without first making an in-depth analysis of the situation and, second, because we still don’t have all the facts (we only have the core, key, facts).

At this point it makes not sense for me to remain on standby.  I better get some sleep before tomorrow’s analysis.

Until then, I wish you all a good night/morning/day or evening.

Crucially – don’t lose hope!!  I will explain tomorrow why we should not over-react to this tragic and evil event.

Can I still say “hugs and cheers”?

I will stick to “hugs” only.

Singing off

—The Saker