As presented on Larry C. Johnson's blog
I see a lot of things going on in the background. I list them here.
USA/THE WEST
Sullivan says a communication link has been opened with Moscow. To talk about what? If you take the official Washington line there is nothing to talk about – Moscow must give up. Is Washington preparing for a different conversation?
After the accusations that Russia is considering nuclear weapons Blinken made it clear that no preparatory signs had been seen. Somewhat of a toning down of rhetoric.
Zelensky applied for fast-track NATO membership and was instantly slapped down by Sullivan – “at a different time.”
Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.
The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.
America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.
WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT
The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.
Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.
The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.
INTERNATIONAL
The West’s “mojo” isn’t working. Scholtz received little support from his Gulf visit and neither did Biden from Saudi Arabia. China, India and Brazil abstained on the American UNSC motion to censure Russia’s absorption of the four regions. “90% of the world” isn’t following the lead of the so-called “international community”. Many countries see the world changing and have picked their side or are waiting to see how it plays out (Egypt and Saudi Arabia are feeling out the SCO, for example).
RUSSIA
There are many videos of trains carrying heavy equipment west. I’ve seen tanks, Mstas, BM-21s, Iskanders and lots of BMPs. Nothing suggests that Russia is running out of anything. This suggests preparations for a large-scale Russian Army armored offensive along traditional deep penetration doctrine.
The status of the new four regions opens the possibility of more forceful actions by the Russian Armed Forces as such because they are “defending the Motherland”.
There is a good deal of plausible speculation that the 300 thousand man call up may free up soldiers in the rear. If so, the effect of the extra troops may be felt sooner than many expect.
As far as razputitsa (распутица), winter and other things beloved of TV commentators, it’s not the USSR in 1941. There are a lot of paved roads and Russians are well-equipped and experienced for fighting in winter. Therefore there is no guarantee that things will be quiet for four or five months.
“We call on the Kiev regime to immediately cease fire and all hostilities; to end the war it unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table.” said Putin a couple of days ago. Was this his last offer before a much more powerful attack?
PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?
In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.
One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.
More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.
SELECT COMMENTARY (from original threads)
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Henry Rech says
“Line B of the pipeline – was not damaged”
Failure or deliberate?
Perhaps it was targeted but the device used failed.
This might mean that the device can be found intact and identified.
Or perhaps the device did detonate but was ineffective, in which case it will not be intact.
Or it may have been deliberate to leave one line of NS2 intact. Did anyone think of that?
Germany depends on Russian gas, and it cannot substitute it in sufficient quantity. It cannot even substitute it through other Russian gas pipelines. So killing all 4 lines would kill the German industry.
Killing 3 lines lets Germany know how vulnerable it is – and still might give it enough gas to get through the winter. Actually I think the fact that one line of NS2 is left makes it more likely that Germany itself was involved in blowing up the lines.
@Martina,
I think it was Russia for exactly the reasons you cite. Why do you think it was Germany? Does Germany have the capacity? I’m no expert on these matters but doesn’t Russia have the most knowledge of exactly how these pipelines are built and how best to disable them?
And isn’t it clever to do something that Russia knows everyone will suspect the US of doing? Blinken is a jackass and doesn’t know how to express himself but his words prove nothing – except that.
If Russia did it, why were six helos taking turns flying the same pattern, exactly over the site, all using the same call sign right before it blew? Three of the six tail numbers were observed.
Russian Intelligence indicated they already have proof it was the USA. The time will come for them to show their cards.
Scott Ritter says there is always forensic evidence laying around and thinks the Russians have already collected it at the site. I don’t know, I prefer to wait for the evidence. Speculating is creative thinking, best done without leaping to conclusions. There’s less walking back to do.
The Swamp Critters making USA policy make up different stories, almost daily! They’re narrative driven, whatever works at the moment.
more likely, if it was russia, which I do not believe, the reason was so that germany has to decide MUCH more quickly whether to green light repairs… Germany can no longer wait till next summer and say oops we’re done sanctioning. To have gas for NEXT year the repairs have to be done NOW. When the pipeline was intact the germans could suck up one cold winter and at any time say uncle…
not my belief… but if sponge brain and his retard contingent couldn’t think of this spin then they really are truly retarded.
why destroy a $23 billion investment which was still making millions for Russia through Nordstream 1 when you could just turn it off. Russians dont waste money, they would never destroy the only real leverage they had over Europe and they always play the long game, NS2 has the possibility that it can work in the future, 10/20 years from now moving gas or hydrogen fuel. There are precisely no reasons for Russia to do it and a million for the US, NATO etc to do so. Word has it that Germany was in secret talks to possibly use NS2 over winter, of course there are no secrets in reality but this is unconfirmable.
Yes, Germany has the ability to disable them.
As for how to build them, I am sure Russia has better knowledge. I am not sure that Germany could build pipelines if it wanted to, but it certainly has all the knowledge and capabilitiy it needs to destroy them.
I think it was Germany because the German government seemed so relieved when the pipelines were blown up. They had been under pressure from the street to open NS2. Then, suddenly, NS2 is gone and they seem totally relaxed.
Now it turns out the NS2 is not totally destroyed – but they still claim that NS2 is completely gone. They also ignore that Russia says that the damage to the other 3 lines can be repaired, MSM still claiming that the lines are beyond repair.
you are an idiot
Russia can just turn of the tap, not to blow to hell $20 billion infrastructure. Didn’t Flight24 showed NATO helicopters hovering over? Didn’t NATO conduct maneuver 20 miles near? I find this persistence of psyco-ops “Russia did it to itself” is preposterous.
The Russians would not be stupid enough to destroy their own multi-billion USD pipeline system. If those evil Rooskies want Germans to freeze to death in the dark, all they had to do was close some valves- remember- it was THEIR system and THEY had control of it! Conversely, if they wanted to allow Germany to have some cheap gas, they could simply open the valves- as Gonzalo Lira would say, “righty-tighty, lefty loosey.”
If it has/had a failed device that didn’t blow, that makes ID pretty certain. I hadn’t thought of this in the deluge of articles being written, but dedl said one string got blown twice. Having that pointed out, I recall something like that. There will be plenty of forensic evidence, Russian Intelligence says they have proof. Gazprom has to inspect the “intact” string, that crime scene would be impossible to “scrub” completely and not be detected doing it. Scott Ritter thinks the Russians have already been in, for evidence collection. How THAT was done, would be a good story in itself!
With Russia’s extensive electronic monitoring and listening capabilities, they must have known that the US Naval was running under-sea demolition exercises in the area of the pipelines in the weeks prior to the pipelines’ sabotage.
Maybe there was nothing they could do to prevent the sabotage.
Maybe they sat back and let it happen, so the Germans could see what kind of American “allay” and “friend” they have, making the German people totally dependent on high-priced natural gas from American companies, instead of receiving reliable, long-term, reasonably-priced deliveries of Russian natural gas.
i don’t see any reason to believe at all that russia had prior knowledge of this attack. Possible but seems 100% speculation without evidence. Claiming they effectively monitor all of their pipelines at all times seems unlikely to me. Though I supppose its possible
All major nations monitor ALL vessels in the shallow Baltic sea (and elsewhere), or do you think Russia does not track NATO subs (boats are tracked by SAR satellite) (and vice versa)? Vessels, subs, ROVs, have a unique prop wash sound. There are limitations in the open ocean, but in the Baltic Sea?
The discussion here is mostly related to military science – it aint GazProm that cares!
I get all that… you could be right… but I don’t believe the whole pipeline was monitored in such a way that would require that russia saw in advance and knew what was happening. It is pure speculation for me to say yay or nay, I suspect for you as well
I read that Russia are not permitted by Denmark to investigate now. Their hands are tied, probably the same as it was before the accident – they’re being squeezed out if what the chihuahua states want to turn into “NATO lake”
Nord Stream pipelines can be restored – Moscow
The process would be time-consuming and costly, according to Russia’s deputy PM
The pipeline was made in sections that can be both lowered and lifted to the surface, for repairs. The Russians made it, they can fix it.
This means some hope for Europe!
https://www.rt.com/business/563912-nord-stream-pipes-restored/