Like many of you,I read John Helmer, who writes very detailed, often very excellent articles. But no one’s perfect.
President Vladimir Putin has given instructions to accept the Trump Administration’s demand that in exchange for lifting sanctions against Russia, US capital must return to Russia on preferential terms as soon as possible.
For the new round of negotiations in Geneva later this week, Putin has replaced Admiral Igor Kostyukov, the military intelligence chief, as head of the Russian negotiating team with Vladimir Medinsky, a lower ranking Kremlin official. Medinsky’s instructions are that the military terms of settlement on the Ukraine battlefield, insisted on by Kostyukov at the Abu Dhabi talks, be subordinated to the terms negotiated by Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s principal negotiator with the White House.
The change in the Kremlin line is reported in the Russian media as the “Anchorage formula” and the “Dmitriev plan”
Bloomberg published its report on Feb. 12. Zelensky was given details by Ukrainian intelligence Feb. 7. So, the Ukrainians had it first. Did Bloomberg get the report from the Ukrainians?
Let’s start with point one of the “Dmitriev plan,” which envisions Boeing’s return to the Russian market and some involvement in domestic production.
The situation with Russian airlines’ fleets is truly dire, but opting for American airliners here and now will ultimately put an end to all frantic efforts to create Russian passenger airliners like the MS-21 and Tu-214M.
They’ll simply be shut down, just as the domestic wide-body long-haul airliner project was shelved. The idea of Boeing participating in production processes in our country sounds extremely suspicious. It’s unlikely that American aircraft will be assembled in Russia; more likely, Boeing will simply acquire troubled Russian aircraft manufacturing facilities and then “optimize” them as its owner.
Joint ventures in oil and gas, lithium, copper, nickel, and platinum production, especially those that take into account “past investments” and “loss compensation,” are essentially no different from Trump’s enslaving “mineral deal” with Ukraine. Only we’ll still have to compensate our American partners for the costs of sanctions.
What are these preferential terms for American companies to return to the Russian market?
Apparently, nothing good for Chinese competitors or domestic products, if any exist or are planned. The Kremlin press secretary’s stated willingness to return to dollar payments for energy is particularly touching. And this after so many years of talk about the need for de-dollarization and the construction of a sovereign financial system!
If a “pivot to the West” takes place in this form, not only Ukraine but also Russia will officially become an economic vassal of the United States. After that, we will find ourselves in a camp hostile to China, which will begin curtailing cooperation with our country. It would be naive to think that North Korea, which proved itself our only true ally during the Second World War, will remain so after the rapprochement between Moscow and Washington.
And it might turn out that in the foreseeable future, Russia will have to fight alone on two fronts: against Europe in Ukraine and for the interests of its American ally against China. Beijing should carefully consider this prospect and draw the right conclusions quickly.
Now, do you think that Putin is willing suddenly to give up years of sacrifices and effort to build Russian economic sovereignty and multipolarity to become another American vassal state?
Helmer’s article is full of...well...I am not sure what to call them?
“Inaccuracies”. Maybe that’s the nicest way to put it.
For example, he says that Peskov “endorsed” the plan. Not at all. Here are some examples.
On cooperation:
“This Bloomberg article explains something that is quite obvious. Of course, we are offering cooperation. Of course, companies from both countries are potentially interested in this cooperation — so there you have joint ventures”.
On the U.S. Dollar Peskov clarified that Russia never intended to abandon the currency .
“Russia has not refused to use dollars — it was the United States that imposed restrictions on the use of the currency”.
Dollar settlements? Russia would return to dollar settlements…
“if it is attractive and the U.S. stops restricting its use”.
On Negotiation Status:
“realistically, until there is some kind of settlement on Ukraine, it’s hard to talk about anything concrete”.
Bloomberg News is infamous. You should assume that almost anything you read there with geopolitical implications is:
inaccurate biased based on propaganda
As I said, the provenance for this memo seems to be Ukraine.That should set off alarms for an experienced journalist – but Helmer does not appear to care.
Sadly, this is what happens sometimes to well-known journalists, analysts and public commentators who rely on “trusted sources” – usually old friends. Ex-pats are especially vulnerable. That’s one reason why I quit the Foreign Correspondent’s Club in Tokyo.
But Helmer is pumping Bloomberg, suggesting he has insider access to Kremlin “factions”, as though the Kremlin was factionalized just like the US is.
The fact is that Putin’s administrations welcomes debate and dialectic – but not “factions”. Once decisions are made, people in power are expected to just do their job. More important is public opinion, which wants to see the war prosecuted (65%) to the Polish border.
Helmer also seems to suggest that he has “insider information” on Putin’s conversations with the head of the Central Bank.
Putin has been persuaded by Nabiullina of the CBR and other economic advisors that unless he agrees to the Dmitriev plan very soon, the Russian economy faces recession conditions before the September 20 national parliamentary elections. Nabiullina’s refusal to lower the CBR’s key rate more than 50 basis points to 15.5%, announced on February 13, came with several warnings that Russia’s GDP is slipping below the 1% growth rate officially reported, and thus into recession. “We have revised our 2026 investment forecast slightly downwards,” Nabiullina said, “the gradual slowdown in economic activity is accompanied by labour market easing…The situation for Russian exporters is complicated by sanctions. In view of the global market trends, we have reduced our forecast of oil prices for the next three years. Accordingly, we have also adjusted the forecast of the value of Russian exports.
Huh?
Helmer reports:
“several warnings that Russia’s GDP is slipping below the 1% growth rate officially reported, and thus into recession”.
Whose warnings?
Nubuillina’s refusal to lower the key rate, came with assurances that this would not trigger recession, just ease the market with a gradual slowdown, taking into account reduction in oil revenues predicted for several years now and compensated for by development of other areas of the Russian economy which have benefited from import substitution. In other words, this was a strategy to avoid recession or achieve soft landing. . .
Putin has said several times recently, including in his yearend addresses. that there was no danger of recession in Russia- and he also predicted the possibilities of economic trends that we now see materializing, especially a long-term dip in oil revenues.
Russia has a healthy trade surplus of about 4% of GDP, little debt (15-20% of GDP), and falling inflation about 6%. Now if we assume some statistical license. The figures are still not in recession territory.
But the Western Media, including Bloomberg have been predicting economic collapse for years — for Russia. So one must ask whether Helmer’s article is in with the rest of them.
“Beyond what they claimed to offer on Ukraine … we also see no positive outlook on the economic front,” Lavrov said in the TV BRICS interview. “Washington, in our view, is seeking control over global energy supply routes serving major economies across multiple continents.”
He said Russia remains open to cooperation with the U.S. but argued that “the Americans themselves are creating artificial obstacles on this path.”
So, if Helmer is wrong, what is going on?
I give William Schryver the last word:
The US has never given up on its dreams - that is obvious—as Berletic says. It is also obvious that Putin understand this only too well.
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The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post, although, if we publish them, we obviously find them noteworthy and highly valuable.
Julian Macfarlane is a Tokyo-based media and strategic analyst. He edits News Forensics (Substack column). Julian is assisted in his writing by two highly proficient felines, Chappy and Ichi.
Julian Macfarlane
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