OB-B—The approach of a Russian tanker to Cuba could lead to an escalation of what has been up until now mainly a proxy war between the US and Russia, but even then the oil would take a month to process and refine. I don’t know if the tanker has a military escort.
Cuba cannot wait that long. It is almost without power. In Russia itself, Moscow, Belgorod, and Russian oil refineries are targeted every day by hundreds of Ukrainian drones; Moscow is shutting down the internet almost every day for long periods. Russia’s total territorial advances in Ukraine after four years of fighting remain glacial; last month it lost more territory than it gained. The argument that this is attritional warfare has merit but exactly who is being attrited grows less certain by the day.

