MARK WAUCK: War Status 9/26/26

After the usual Friday gaslighting of the markets, we’re back to normal. Well, kinda normal. According to the WSJ, Trump is talking up a new bombing campaign—but not until after the midterms. Before we get to that, it may be useful to consider the meaning of “annihilation”. Like others, I took that as a nuke threat—Trump would drop a tactical nuke on Pickaxe and try to walk away while declaring victory. Prof Pape says, No, that’s probably not “it”. I did a search and couldn’t find the full video on Youtube, but here’s a <1 minute clip of Pape:

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

What’s Trump threatening when he says “annihilating” Iran

We discussed on Piers Morgan yesterday and agreed, likely taking down Iran’s power plants— much more catastrophic than many realize:

---

Prof. Marandi TEARS INTO Former US Special Forces Soldier in Vicious Iran Clash!

/video/1

Pape is right that this would be absolutely catastrophic for Iran—and would lead to drastic blowback. We’ve heard this talk before, of course, and it didn’t come to pass. Why not? Probably because it couldn’t be done effectively without extensive air operations within Iranian airspace—not simply via standoff munitions. Yes, standoff munitions could “accomplish” a lot of destruction, but—like use of a tactical nuke—it would lead to massive blowback. If it had been practical before, why wasn’t it done? That’s the question John Mearsheimer keeps asking: If there were a path to victory, why wait until after the midterms, over a month from now, rather than doing it now? After all:

• Iran’s air defense—and, possibly, offensive capabilities, not excluding nukes—will only be more capable a month from now, after months of ceasefire;

• The domestic political environment for Trump will be even dicier. Consider: massive escalation in the face of a disastrous political defeat that was ultimately driven by popular opposition to a disastrous war?

• Moreover, waiting until after the midterms means an additional month of diesel and gas pain for the electorate with no effective steps taken to end the root cause of it all. What sense does that make?

Nevertheless, here’s what the WSJ is saying:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

12h

BREAKING: Trump rejects Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and tells aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, per WSJ.

The US told Iran and the mediators he has no intention of lifting the naval blockade, one of Iran’s demands.

Trump is privately skeptical Iran would meet his demands and has told his staff he expects a renewed bombing campaign.

Iran declared hours ago it will no longer negotiate over its nuclear program at all, the concession the proposal was built on.

Now, speaking of the naval blockade, there have been a number of interesting reports within the last few days. These reports work off the Iranian near-miss Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) attacks on US ships that, by all accounts, led to a flight by the USN from the Gulf of Oman—where the blockade is supposed to be in effect. Consider.

First we have a reminder about a possible October Surprise—another question mark surrounding Trump’s claim of a post midterm escalation. Is that Trump threat actually meant to deter an October Surprise? Because waiting for the midterms doesn’t make a lot of military sense—it’s not as if the US stockpile of munitions is being rapidly rebuilt. It isn’t.

Patarames @Pataramesh

Sep 24

Trump said it ... and its actually true:

Iran works towards building up maximum pressure against him at the  midterms.

Iran will intensify escalatory actions in October.

 Either Trump...

- Confronts Iran

- Or does a face-saving stunt to exit with a deal before the elections

Now:

Patarames @Pataramesh

Sep 25

U.S. Navy effectively “A2/AD’ed” by Iran?

@MoloWarMonitor did the effort to search the Sea of Oman & beyond for the 2  carrier groups. He hasn’t found them!

The Anti-Ship Ballistic-Missile attack seems to have mostly mission-killed their power projection & SoH air escort

MoloMonitor @MoloWarMonitor

I waited several weeks before making this post, but now I can say something with certainty regarding the American aircraft carriers deployed in the CENTCOM area.

Since roughly the beginning of September, I have not found the USS George H.W. Bush or the USS George Washington, nor the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, nor any other components of the carrier strike groups, such as Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery.

This implies that the U.S. has decided to pull back beyond the range of Iranian anti-ship missiles, thereby shifting the naval blockade line, which until August had been positioned at the exit of the Gulf of Oman.

This strategic shift was likely prompted by Iran’s first reported use of anti-ship ballistic missiles a few weeks ago, which clearly pose a potential threat to U.S. Navy vessels.

In fact, in early September, the IRGC Navy tested the “Qasem Basir” ASBM for the first time, with a maximum range of approximately 1.200 km, it covers almost the entire Arabian Sea.

@MoloWarMonitor did receive pushback on these claims. However, the most serious counter arguments were that the carriers had been sighted in the Arabian Sea—and that would almost certainly represent a pullback from at least the near approaches of the Gulf of Oman. Further, the past several weeks have seen regular reports of very heavy US air tanker activity. That suggests that the US attempts to “escort” ships out of Hormuz are taking place for longer range starting points, requiring extra tanker refueling capabilities. Whatever the full extent of the USN pullback, it appears that the US is burning through vast amounts of increasingly scarce and expensive jet fuel.

But there’s more information that tends to confirm these reports. The DoD has quietly added more than two dozen more casualties to the total—29 sailors and marines. That should mean ship borne casualties, and that’s a strong suggestion that those Iranian near misses had a real effect. There’s a lot of speculation out there about what type of warheads were on those Iranian ASBMs—cluster, or whatever.

Patarames @Pataramesh

5h

You can defeat the Aegis-Combat-System(s) on U.S. Navy Arleigh-Burke destroyers with a sizable salvo of Anti-Ship Ballistic-Missiles

Where those sailors really wounded in an  ASBM strike? The U.S. won’t disclose...

But hitting it with just TWO ASBM is the terrifying part

The larger implication to all this is that any escalation as suggested by Prof Pape could be met with a devastating Iranian response.

The economic effects keep getting worse while the stalemate continues. I believe what PP is suggesting is that the AI bubble is crowding out funds that might otherwise have fed the treasuries market:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

1h

The AI bubble is now almost completely propping up the US trade deficit and hence US living standards. If it pops, USD goes south and living standards go with it as import prices shoot up.

Also:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

6h

White House scrambling for options to get diesel costs down.

Good luck with that.

Finally:

Steve Hanke @steve_hanke

1h

Today, a Russian counterattack hit the Cosmonova data centers in Kyiv. The attacks knocked multiple Ukrainian news and television channels offline.

RUSSIA CONTINUES MASSIVE COUNTERATTACKS AFTER UKRAINE’S PROVOCATIONS.

UKRAINE CONTINUES TO INVITE ITS OWN DESTRUCTION.

Ukraine’s destruction is not a concern for the Anglo-Zionists. Those are just Slavs.