The best analysis on China US competition

Sun Tsu’s Art of War, written in the 5^th century BCE during China’s Warring States period, has been a foundational strategy tome for the country for 2,500 years.

One central teaching from Sun Tsu is the importance of knowledge – both of yourself and of your enemy – in winning wars.

Sun Tsu’s observation – “those whose know both themselves and their enemies will not lose a battle in a hundred (zhi ji zhi bi zhe, bai zhan bu dai)” – is considered a universal rule in warfare. Also in commerce and daily life.

This is the fundamental reason why the West has been consistently wrong about China and why there is little hope it can outcompete China.

Seemingly intelligent Western scholars such as Harvard’s Graham Allison and Chicago’s John Mearsheimer insist on using a Western framework to analyze China and design strategies against Beijing.

However, they barely realize their frames of reference, such as the Thucydides Trap or Aggressive Realism have very limited utility when it comes to understanding China’s motivations and plans.

Such social science theories simply have no universal application, unlike natural science. They are developed in a particular Western cultural and historical context, which China doesn’t share.

Neither Allison nor Mearsheimer speak or read Chinese and have little first-hand knowledge about the country. Yet they are confident in peddling their “universal” theories to an equally ill-informed audience.

Universalist theories, unbacked by knowledge of the target analyzed, are as dangerous as “universal values” promoted by the neoliberals in the height of post-Cold War hubris.

I wrote a critique of John Mearsheimer a while back. https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/john-mearsheimer-is-a-crackpot-realist?utm_source=publication-search

The result is vast knowledge asymmetry, misjudgement, and a silly public exercise of “fooling oneself” – something humorously termed “a self-licking ice cream cone”.

Consider this – 300,000 Chinese students go to the US to pursue degrees every year, and another similar number go to other Western countries. Between 800 to 1,200 Americans study in Chinese universities today, down from a peak of 15,000 in 2011.

All Chinese students study English starting from primary school.

Simply put, the Chinese knowledge of the US and the West is vastly superior to their knowledge about China.

Even Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister famous for his unique distinction of knowing Chinese, has lost much of his earlier astuteness after cashing in with the liberal think tank racket Asia Society in New York for a decade.

Despite my generally low opinion of mainstream Western political and media discourse on China, there are a few individuals in academia and the diplomatic field (formerly) who are truly knowledgeable and impartial.

Those are the people whose opinions and views reflect reality and should be taken seriously.

A few stand out – Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, economist and advisor to the United Nations, and a frequent visitor to China since the 1980s; Martin Jacques, British journalist and academic who has studied China’s governance and economic system since 1993.

Among the institutes of higher learning, Harvard’s Fairbank Center and Brown’s Watson School are the preeminent centers of Chinese studies with excellent faculties.

I planned to pursue a PhD study at Brown after COVID when Edward Steinfeld, a prominent Sinologist, was the director of the Watson School. However, the plan was aborted when Ed stepped down, and China US relationship further deteriorated.

The video attached features a recent speech and Q&A by Ambassador Chas Freeman at the Watson School, moderated by Professor Lyle Goldstein.

Both Chas and Lyle are fluent Chinese speakers and close followers of the country’s development over the last few decades.

Chas Freeman was the Principal American Interpreter for President Nixon during his 1972 visit to China.

He was the Director of Chinese Affairs at the State Department, and served as Assistant Secretary of State and Assistant Secretary of Defense as well as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War. He graduated from Yale and Harvard.

Lyle Goldstein was educated at Princeton and Harvard. He is a professor at Watson and the Director of the China Initiative there (not to be confused with the FBI China Initiative). Ed Steinfeld started the China Initiative to further China research at Brown when he was also on the board of directors at the National Committee for US China Relations.

Goldstein specializes in security policies, particularly concerning China and Russia. He spoke both languages.

He served on the faculty of the US Navy War College for over 20 years. He has been a close observer of the Chinese and Russian military, especially the navies. There are a few interviews he did on the subject on YouTube for those interested in military affairs.

In my view, Amb. Freeman’s speech is the most insightful analysis of the current state of China-US competition and should be watched by those interested in the topic.