Julian Macfarlane
NEWS FORENSICS
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War weather? • Forecasts
You can see that, they say, in the increase in military cargo flights to US bases in the Middle East and stepped up deployment. Take the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in central-eastern Jordan now hosting F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets,
Al Udeid Air Base near Doha has welcomed over a dozen KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft ,
Impressive, huh?
Except that THAAD and Patriot didn’t protect the Israelis very well in the 12-Day War, and Israeli warplanes stayed well out of Iranian airspace to launch standoff munitions. The Houthis shot down a slew of Reaper drones and forced American forces to withdraw from the Red Sea, despite lacking the advanced radars, air defense systems, tech specialists, and EW systems and all that other stuff that the Iranians have.
Diego Garcia has been busy in the Indian Ocean, with a Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer docked at the base port, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, KC-135 Stratotanker refueling planes, and two MC-130J Commando II aircraft equipped for special operations.
And Trump is talking about sending another carrier group! Another fat target!
The American Zionist lobby is rumored to be pressuring Trump to take action, and it appears that Netanyahu is too, despite initial reports that he feared Iran’s reaction. From the Zionist point of view, the Iranians will just keep getting stronger. So a war now is better than on later.
SouthFront’s ME analysts think that Trump is buying time with the negotiations in roder to lull the Iranians in thinking they can talk their way out confrontation. This I suppose would permit the Americans a face-saving strike like the B2 strike of last year But last year’s attack was pre-arranged. The Iranians just let it happen .
But things have changed since last year. If the Iranians allowed such a strike following by some kind of “negotiations” they would be setting themselves up for more CIA/ MOSSAD / MI6 terrorism and subversion such as they just experienced – an attempt at a Ukraine type Maidan Coup.
The Western Media is promoting the theory that the Iranian people fear war and want peace at any cost and hate their government.
But…
President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed his gratitude to the Iranian people for their “exceptional” turnout in nationwide rallies marking the 47th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution.
He made the remarks in the northeastern Golestan Province on Thursday, one day after Iranians took to the streets in millions to renew their allegiance to the Islamic Republic amid recent threats by the US and Israel against the country.
Iranian show their support for the government after CIA/Mossad instigated riots.
The public mood has changed. About 70% of Iranians advocate a strong response to foreign aggression – despite worrying about economic conditions. Economic hardships now signal to them they are already at war and they know who to blame..
The government therefore will make efforts to appear “reasonable” but the US and the EU have already declared war and things will take their course.
Talking to friends in the ME, they feel — without exception— that a military provocation by the US should be answered with overwhelming force, if possible focused on Israel, which they see as the core of American military might in the Middle East.
Disabling a US carrier would be good, too. But destroying Israeli military and civilian infrastructure would be better.
Should the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz even temporarily – for, say, two weeks, that would raise oil prices suddenly, which would be to the advantage of Russia— of course.
China could handle a two week hiatus very nicely. While US oil refineries handling Venezuelan crude might benefit, the sudden shock of higher prices would likely trigger a securities market sell-off in the US.
In that case, I think American Zionist lobby would be blamed for the loss of American lives, livelihood and influence--and both parties should be at pains to distance themselves and seek meaningful solutions, especially in Palestine as many Jews are doing. I say “should” assuming rational response.
I have argued that a war with Iran is unlikely - -because it wouldn’t, couldn’t succeed. That’s a rational point of view.
Military people are supposedly rational, if only because their lives are on the line. But American generals do not put themselves in harm’s way.
Also one must ask when was the last war that began for rational reasons? Korea? Nope. Vietnam? Iraq? Afghanistan? There is a long list. The US lost them all.
So maybe, I was wrong to think that Trump would avoid a shooting war in the Middle East.
Friendship is the most natural thing.
If other animals can do it - -why can’t we? The answer is: we can and we do. It is the most natural thing in the world Politicians unfortunately are unnatural. Can we hope they go extinct?
Which brings us to coffee. Coffee really IS good for you. It’s all about dopamine….
I should know. I was not allowed to drink coffee when I lived at home. So I was always “before coffee”. Come to think of it - -maybe I still am.
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Special addendum:
Newkraine?
Maybe...Nokraine
Lavrov has been active giving interviews and answering questions.
Russia intends to reclaim its ancestral Russian lands, as the Russian people in Ukraine desire, stated Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“The people of Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya expressed their will in referendums. We will complete the process of returning these primordially Russian lands to their native haven in full accordance with the aspirations of these people,” the head of the department stated, according to TASS .
What is meant by “primordially Russian lands”. If “primordially” here means “historically” that also means “MaloRussia” and “NovoRussia”. Right now, the emphasis is on NovoRossiya.
The orange and green pimples on the left would be “Western Ukraine”.
As you can see, the goalposts have moved. Russia is moving towards maximalist solutions.
Back before Anchorage, the Russians were talking about just the four oblasts, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhizhie and Kherson in addition to Crimea. Now the area has expanded to include Kharkov and Dneiprovotrosk, Mykolaiv and Odessa. These are the areas that Yanukovych won in 2014.
Kiev, and oblasts, such as Sumy, are in a kind of gray zone as far as political and ethnic sympathies, They are historically part of Malorossiya (little Russia).
Ukrainian attacks on Russia through Sumy have made it imperative for Russia to add Sumy to its list of oblasts that it needs to incorporate, along with Kiev, of course--which the Russians see as an historically Russian city-- Poltava and Chernihiv
An unconditional surrender would cede strategic regions to Russian control at first, which would result in an exodus of Ukrainian nationalists westwards towards the Polish border.
The UK’s FT has published a plan for a US brokered plan which would have Zelensky holding elections, which he would make sure to win by hook or crook — finally getting his ceasefire— with an agreement that he would eventually roll back. Russia would have to give up claim to all regions except the four oblasts that would be demilitarized “free trade zones”. That is typical British nonsense, I assure you. Not a recipe for peace,
Articles like that assume that Russia wants a quick, decisive end to the war and the US as a "friend”.
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” ― Henry Kissinger (attributed)
Nope. Russia is prepared to fight on to the finish, probably in 2027. And the US is not friend to anyone. That is what Lavrov is now saying openly.
The Russians are not in a hurry,
An important thing to remember is that combat veterans from the SVO are returning to civilian society to take leadership positions in government and industry, They are dedicated, competent and represent Putin’s Silovik “servant of the people” concept. This war is not only character-building but nation building
Assuming the demise of the old order in Ukraine. rebuilding new republics in this region would depend on Russian resources and those of its allies, including China and India , once political stability and representative government was assured. Referendums would likely favor incorporation in the Russian Federation, or the Russian Union .
In the end therefore it is quite possible that “Little Russia” would return to Mother. Then again, the Russians would be just as happy with a independent but allied state as a buffer against Poland. .
As for Ukrainian nationalists – give them Galicia — the ones who haven’t been caught and tried for war crimes.
That is an issue. Even if Zelensky won an election. How could the Russians deal with a war criminal?
As of today, the Ukrainians have launched a “counteroffensive’ with the primary target.near Ternovate in the Zaporizhzhie region,
Their attack includes armour and seven assault brigades, the 125th and 128th Heavy Mechanized Brigades, as well as the 92nd Airborne Assault Brigades—their very best.
They are opposed by the Vostok Group and are suffering heavy casualties.
And once again, killing their own.
As I mentioned a long time ago, when I was correcting Simplicius’ initial article on Kupiansk which saw a Ukrainian victory there, Kupiansk seems to have been a setup, at trap for the UAF. I was correct. Ukrainian reserves have been tied up , suffering about 6000 casualties, unable to attack, unable to flee, which frees up Russian forces elsewhere
If you wanted to know why the Russians devoted minimal forces on the ground to Kupiansk that’s why. Attrition.
Lacking personnel, the UAF has thrown in its highly prized assault regiments, which you would have thought they would hold back for emergencies.
They are tasked with attacking, even at the cost of heavy personnel and equipment losses. The Ukrainians have apparently lost a lot of armour.
Characterizing the current counteroffensive by Kyiv regime militants, the Russian military emphasizes that it differs from previous similar attempts in three ways: slightly more “meat,” slightly more equipment, and a number of reckless decisions on the part of the enemy.
It should be added that even Kyiv is now warning that the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions could result in another failure for Syrsky.
However, as I said, the Russians don’t want to lay siege to Zaporizhzhia, despite what many say. Isolating the city is good for now. The Ukrainians can’t defend it, if all their soldiers are dead
In the North, the Russians are preparing, I think for a Spring offensive to take Kramatorsk, which is heavily fortified, but not immune to Russian bombing.
In Spring, a lot of things will happen.
The US is escalating. Watch Russia look out for itself.
Owls
I like people sometimes too, But they don’t have the eyes or the feathers. I wonder if I was a bird in another life .
Chappy and Ichi think I am crazy.
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