Julian Macfarlane
NEWS FORENSICS
I did a couple of posts recently about the widespread acceptance of the media story that Iran had mined the Strait of Hormuz.
For example:
And
To get how pervasive – and persuasive-- the “narrative” was, you only needed to check Larry Johnson’s Sonar 21, which provides you with interviews with all the most popular commentators. Everybody who is anybody, went with the mine story - even the excellent Alastair Crooke.
I am of course Mr. Nobody! Just an old guy who lives with two cats, and can’t spell worth shit. You know, a walking “dys” guy
Now, however, Larry Johnson, who I criticized for parroting the media narrative on mines has suddenly come out with an analysis almost identical with my own.
Finally.
I don’t mean that in a cynical way. I love Larry although I not going to buy one of those shirts or start smoking cigars (ugh).
That said, Johnson should be honored for his U-Turns, when he acknowledges them, which he does from time to time.
No, I don’t think he reads New Forensics. I did write him an email on this - -but I am sure he is too busy to reply.
I do think that his turn-around came from somewhere — maybe some “source” who did ask the obvious question I did – “why has no ship that we know of out of the many that have passed through the Strait, not hit a mine?”
I am sure that others besides me and Chappy and Ichi must have asked this question, out of the thousands of commentators on X and other media.
That said, as I also wrote — it is not in Iran’s interest to rebut the Western narrative— since it’s a good excuse for obtaining service fees or other moneys from GCC states, Western corporations or governments. Iran needs the money for reconstruction .
Of course, if sea mines were really laid, it would cost a lot to remove them.
Some estimates are up to $3 billion. Again, no one really knows and this ambiguity is strategic, providing Iran with a lot of leverage.
How difficult is it going to be to clear a passage to the point that shipping companies perceive that it’s safe again?
You’ve hit on just the right point: People have to perceive that it’s safe enough. We think that Iran has laid a relatively small number of mines. But it is extraordinarily difficult and slow to try to clear mines under fire. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2026/05/demining-the-strait-of-hormuz-qa-with-scott-savitz.html
In 2025, the Navy decommissioned its four remaining Avenger-class minesweepers in the Middle East. Currently, only four aging Avenger-class ships remain in service, all in Sasebo, Japan
Anyway, thank you for asking— but Iran is not going to allow the US Navy to do it!
As we saw last time, Hormuz is a sovereign waterway, with rights shared between Oman and Iran—regardless of US policy. Geography allows Iran to dictate what happens here militarily and economically.
What about the GCC?
June 25, 2026 (GCC–US Joint Ministerial Meeting - Manama, Bahrain): Co-chaired by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Bahraini Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani. Discussions focused on the interim US-Iran agreement, securing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and bolstering GCC
Having given up their sovereignty by permitting US bases for American-Israeli strikes on Iran, the GCC countries don’t have much to say.
The MoU? A ceasefire? Peace?
When will Peace break out?
Remember what I wrote last time: for the US, Peace is War.
We have moved from conventional war to “low intensity war”.
Which brings us back to mines. Sorry, us old guys meander…..As I said, Iran (probably) hasn’t so far deployed mines. But it could in future — and given their accelerated technological progress that could be a game changer.
But, thankfully, there are other things to find solace in. Like...
Rescue a Senior…
/ @danieltigerkitty Chappy and Ichi rescued me.
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